UBS sees stronger 2025 for McDonald’s despite near-term pressures

Investing.com — UBS remains optimistic on McDonald’s Corp (NYSE:MCD), projecting stronger U.S. same-store sales growth in 2025, supported by menu innovations, value-focused strategies, and effective marketing initiatives.

“We believe International Operated Markets segment and broader international trends remain pressured given a challenging macro and difficult eating out environment, but expect strategic initiatives can support further market share gains in key markets,” analyst said.

Shares have dropped ~5% since third quarter results due to international headwinds and FX impacts. However, UBS believes improving U.S. momentum and global share gains will drive upside, maintaining a price target of $345.

While McDonald’s is expected to face headwinds in fourth quarter 2024, including a forecasted 1% decline in U.S. SSS due to impacts from an E. coli incident, UBS anticipates recovery as trends improved in December. Key drivers include the $5 Meal Deal, Boo Buckets marketing, and the Chicken Big Mac rollout.

For 2025, UBS expects U.S. SSS to grow 2.5%, bolstered by new menu items like Chicken Snack Wraps, the McValue platform, and digital engagement, alongside easier year-over-year comparisons. International markets remain pressured due to macroeconomic challenges, but strategic initiatives are expected to support market share gains.

 

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