Pitchers and catchers report to camp five weeks from today, and yet it seems like half of baseball has treated free agency as if it’s optional to building a successful team. Seven Major League Baseball teams have not signed a single big league free agent this winter. Eight teams have signed one. The New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees have spent $1.45 billion in free agency this winter — more than the other 27 teams combined.

Because the top of the market has been so robust — of the $2.6 billion guaranteed so far, $1.56 billion of it went to five stars — it has been easy to miss the larger trends. Of those seven free agentless teams, three made the postseason last year (Milwaukee, San Diego, Atlanta), two were playoff teams a year earlier (Seattle, Minnesota), one is a perennial contender in need of a reset (St. Louis) and the other is in full teardown mode (Miami).

All of them share two things: budgetary constraints and a healthy appreciation for the bargains that can accompany free agency in the new year. As the market softens and dozens of players still seeking jobs begin to concern themselves with how many roster spots actually remain, teams can pounce, hunting for deals across the free agent landscape. There is going to be movement. There must be. Too many good players remain jobless.

Alex Bregman is an all-around impact player, and Pete Alonso‘s bat improves any lineup it joins. If a starter with premium stuff is needed, Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta fit the bill. Anthony Santander and Jurickson Profar are multi-win outfielders. Relief pitching is plentiful enough that teams will take advantage of the supply-demand imbalance. And of course Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, two future Hall of Famers, remain intent on continuing to play in their 40s.

As much as spending doesn’t always equal success, it’s hard to find teams that have been more successful at upgrading themselves this offseason than the ones that have spent. For a few more weeks, there is time for the teams that have lagged all offseason to salvage their inaction. And those who so far have won the winter, even more opportunities are primed to present themselves.

Teams winning the offseason

Los Angeles Dodgers

The World Series champions are perfect villains for the modern game: filled with stars, spectacularly moneyed, willing to leverage every advantage in their favor and, most problematic for those who want to despise them, extremely successful. This winter has only reinforced all of those principles.

The Dodgers brought back Teoscar Hernández and Blake Treinen from the championship team and locked up super-utility man Tommy Edman long term (five years, $74 million). They added outfielder Michael Conforto (one year, $17 million) and infielder Hye-seong Kim (three years, $12.5 million). They got another star in Blake Snell for five years and $182 million, and they’re going to bring back Clayton Kershaw, and they could very easily sign a high-leverage reliever.

Oh, and the deferrals. Snell, Hernández and Edman all agreed to forgo a portion of their salaries until the future, taking the Dodgers’ deferred money owed in excess of $1 billion. Los Angeles has long deferred salaries, going back to Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, but not until Shohei Ohtani agreed to postpone payment on $680 million of his $700 million salary did it become a point of disillusionment for fans. It doesn’t matter that Ohtani proposed the deal — and that he did the same with the Toronto Blue Jays and San Francisco Giants, both of whom said they would agree to it. The Dodgers are the team that got Ohtani, and because it is the team-friendliest contract in the game by a good margin, the Dodgers are the team that will be loathed for it.

Deferrals themselves aren’t all that advantageous. Teams still need to put away large sums of cash to cover the eventual payments. They’re a tool, not a strategy. The strategy for Los Angeles is to load up on high-ceiling talent, backfill with depth, ensure its farm system is always pumping out players and maximize its significant financial advantage with solid organizational practices. It’s easy to hate because it’s exactly what they should be doing.

New York Yankees

No player is bigger than the organization. The Yankees have long operated with this mindset, and never did it suit them better than in the aftermath of Juan Soto‘s defection to Queens. Perhaps the best hitter in baseball, presented by the Yankees what would have been the longest and largest contract in sports history, Soto instead chose to sign with the Mets. Rather than lament the loss, the Yankees went right to work.

They signed left-hander Max Fried for eight years and $218 million. They traded for closer Devin Williams, then center fielder Cody Bellinger. They gave Paul Goldschmidt $12.5 million for one year and added a couple more players to their bullpen via trade (right-hander Fernando Cruz) and free agency (right-hander Jonathan Loaisiga). The Yankees are unquestionably a deeper team — and they’re not done, either. They’ve continued to discuss Luis Arráez with San Diego and inquired about Gavin Lux, whom the Dodgers could trade, to fill their open second-base slot. When the contract demands for relief pitching drop, the Yankees could dabble there, too

Having a future Hall of Famer look at a $750 million offer from the most storied franchise in North American professional sports and say “no thanks” is quite the story, the sort that can define an offseason — and years to come. This is mostly a patchwork solution, with only Fried guaranteed to return after 2025. But with Aaron Judge turning 33 in April and Gerrit Cole 34 and no young core of consequence in place, trying to return to the World Series — and actually win it this time — is the right tack. And even if they’re not as dynamic as they would be with a prime-age Soto, the Yankees have solidified themselves enough to remain American League East favorites.

New York Mets

The Mets believe the signing of Soto will completely change their franchise, and it’s tough to say they’re wrong. They’re still not as good as Atlanta or Philadelphia — teams’ models across baseball agree that’s the case — but with owner Steve Cohen’s commitment and president of baseball operations David Stearns’ know-how, it’s difficult to envision New York not eventually setting the standard in the National League East.

New York’s desire to avoid long-term pitching contracts meant the Mets were never really involved with Fried, Snell or Corbin Burnes, all of whom signed for at least a half-decade. Rebuilding its rotation with Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes comes with significant risk, though so did the Mets’ staff last year, and it worked out better than anyone would have envisioned. Otherwise, there haven’t been any needle-moving transactions for the Mets, who have so far been perfectly content to bask in their Sotoness.

But there will be more. At this point, Alonso will almost certainly get an opt-out-laden short-term deal, and the Mets do have a gaping hole at first, and until another team steps up, the expectation will be a renewal of vows. Of course, they can shift Mark Vientos across the diamond and fill the third-base void internally or externally, which gives them plenty of leverage in any conversation. The Mets are still talking about adding an outfielder. And relievers. And a starter. The Winter of Soto is still cooking.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona secured Corbin Burnes with a six-year, $210 million guarantee that added a bona fide ace to a team coming off the best offensive season in MLB and already with legitimate frontline starting pitching. Owner Ken Kendrick illustrated that bottom-third revenues are plenty to cover big-dollar spending.

He could have been gun-shy, and it wouldn’t have been all that difficult to blame him. Zack Greinke‘s free agent contract with Arizona in 2015, almost the same as Burnes’, didn’t work out. Neither did Madison Bumgarner’s in 2019. The Jordan Montgomery deal last March went so poorly Kendrick complained publicly. And yet when faced with going up against the Dodgers and San Diego Padres, Arizona followed its rivals’ lead: High-end talent wins games, particularly in the postseason.

Between Burnes and first baseman Josh Naylor, the Diamondbacks more than made up for the losses of Christian Walker and Joc Pederson to free agency. Another reliever to join A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez in the back end of Arizona’s bullpen will make the winter complete.

Chicago Cubs

Considering the Cubs are currently $50 million or so under the first luxury-tax threshold and they’ve spent the winter spending more like the Chicago White Sox, it’s stunning that they’re in the winners’ category. Such is the power of the superstar trade. The baseball-watching public doesn’t fully recognize how good Kyle Tucker is because he has been surrounded by so much talent in Houston, but he is precisely the caliber of player the Cubs needed as they try to wrangle the NL Central from Milwaukee and keep Cincinnati and Pittsburgh at bay.

The rest of the Cubs’ winter has been whatever. Tucker is the anti-whatever. And while the Cubs did pay heavily with Isaac Paredes and Cam Smith — just ask the Yankees about the dangers of giving up significant talent for one year of an impending free agent outfielder — it was well worth it.

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox are an objectively better team than last year, and if that is the point of this exercise, they belong in the top category. They moved prospects to get ace Garrett Crochet, made a high-reward, minimal-risk signing of Walker Buehler and got much-needed left-handed depth with Patrick Sandoval in the rotation plus Aroldis Chapman and Justin Wilson in the bullpen. They needed pitching. They got pitching. They’re better.

It’s just … there’s more out there. And maybe that’s what January and February are for: the Red Sox to stop acting like a team with the 13th-highest payroll in MLB and start acting like the Boston Red Sox, who until the COVID-19 pandemic never had an opening day payroll lower than sixth in baseball in this century. Twice they were first, eight times second. During those years, it’s no coincidence that Boston won four World Series.

The Red Sox’s futility over the past half-decade has left the fans divided, and while the Crochet and Buehler deals have earned nods of appreciation, what they really want is for owner John Henry to spend money. If it’s not on Soto (Boston’s offer was well short) and if it’s not on Fried (same), perhaps Bregman is the move. He’s the best player still available. He’d rake at Fenway Park. He’s the sort of leader that clubhouse could use. But it’s the Red Sox. And their benefit of the doubt on spending long ago expired.

Teams in need of a move

Toronto Blue Jays

An unmitigated disaster. The Blue Jays whiffed on Soto. They whiffed on Burnes. They whiffed on Fried. They have not locked up Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a contract extension, and every day without one brings him a day closer to his impending free agency.

The Blue Jays have a lot of good things to sell. Toronto is an incredible city. The team’s spring complex and renovated Rogers Centre are both top facilities. They have money and are willing to spend it. But in an AL East with a Yankees team that made the World Series, an ascendant Red Sox team, an always-competitive Tampa Bay squad and a Baltimore Orioles unit that could be the best of them all, the Blue Jays don’t rate quite the same. And with an uninspiring farm system — multiple free agent players took notice — and next to no foundational players under contract beyond 2025, ultimately the good is counterbalanced by the not so good.

There is time. Maybe Toronto can convince Bregman to be that foundational player going forward. Anthony Santander would hit plenty of home runs at Rogers Centre. A remade bullpen is a necessity, and Tanner Scott could anchor it. There is enough talent still in Toronto, particularly with a rotation that’s among the best in the game, to spend its way to contention this year and give Guerrero even more reason to stay. What the Jays have — and what can finally take them out of a yearlong rut that started with the pursuit of Shohei Ohtani and continues unabated into a third calendar year — is money. And sooner than later, someone is bound to take it.

Seattle Mariners

Whatever you want to call it — an unconscionable case of miserliness, a magnificent failure of stewardship or, to keep it simple, cheap ownership — the Mariners are actively blowing one of the best opportunities in baseball. They have a historically good pitching rotation that is the envy of 29 other teams, and despite a payroll that is a full $80 million below the luxury tax threshold, they haven’t spent a single dime this winter.

Smart owners understand windows, and the Mariners are trying to thread the needle by transitioning from their current one into the next generation when a number of excellent homegrown bats join the lineup. Which makes the opportunities right now optimal. Seattle is two bats away from being a genuinely dangerous team. Prices and years are dropping. Bregman would be perfect. Alonso would bring middle-of-the-order juice. This should not be hard.

Nope. That’s not how it works in Seattle. The Mariners spent most of the winter seeing what they could get for one of their starters, Luis Castillo. Sooner than later, they could find themselves in the same position as the Cubs, where trading prospects is the only way to acquire top-flight talent — and that is painful for any organization that would love to see the fruits of its homegrown talent, not barter it.

For all the urgency of Seattle’s situation, the ownership group has shown zero inclination to be nimble and take advantage of market forces working in its favor. Maybe that changes. But the likelier outcome is the Mariners seek bargain contracts again and find themselves one more time victimized by self-inflicted half-measures.

Baltimore Orioles

Speaking of urgency, that’s what Orioles fans crave. The team won 101 games in 2023 and spiked expectations. A regression to 91 wins last year suggested a big splash was needed. It has not happened — and is very unlikely to — in free agency. Perhaps Baltimore can pull another February surprise as it did last year acquiring Corbin Burnes, but if not, this will be an awfully interesting case study years down the road. The question: Did Baltimore play it too safe?

The Orioles, under GM Mike Elias, operate from a few unshakable positions. They are not going to consistently one-up the Yankees and Red Sox in the winter, even with billionaire David Rubenstein taking ownership of the team. They want to be a mid-market organization that plays sustainable competitive baseball. They value team control.

All of that informs their moves this winter. They haven’t been interested in signing players with qualifying offers, lest they have to give up a draft pick. They’ve filled out their rotation with Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano, who are a combined 76 years old. They added Tyler O’Neill‘s bat to their lineup and will have Gary Sanchez backing up Adley Rutschman at catcher.

Are those the sorts of additions that allow them to keep up with the Yankees or Red Sox? No. And yet for all the discipline the Orioles have shown, it’s easy when you’ve got Rutschman and returning closer Felix Bautista under contract through 2027, perennial MVP candidate Gunnar Henderson through 2028, Grayson Rodriguez, Jordan Westburg and Colton Cowser through 2029, Jackson Holliday, Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad through 2030 and even more still in the system.

Windows close fast. Injuries, ineffectiveness — all sorts of baseball stupidity can manifest itself. Unlike other teams, the Orioles’ window is so wide, another year of slow-playing — though a bad habit in which to find oneself entrenched — aligns with how they’ve built this group. But the clock is ticking. And every year the Orioles don’t at least win a playoff series — they’re 0 for the past 2 — it will feel like a completely wasted opportunity.

Atlanta Braves

The only team with a homegrown position-playing core that comes close to matching the Orioles’ is Atlanta’s. And it has been alarming to see the Braves’ swashbuckling president of baseball operations, Alex Anthopoulos, spend the entirety of his winter not making moves. Anthopoulos has been the king of the early-winter strike, whether it’s via free agency or trade — and yet he has not signed a single major league free agent amid the Braves losing Fried and Morton in free agency.

The Braves are about $20 million under the first luxury tax threshold, and Anthopoulos has suggested they could exceed it for the third consecutive season, so there is room to add. Whether Atlanta spreads its gains out over a number of players to exploit falling prices or prefers to go after a single impact-type player, the Braves are poised to add Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider to a team good enough to make the postseason without them.

When the entirety of a winter consists of dumping Jorge Soler‘s contract on the Angels and a number of pursuits that never came to fruition, it’s a recipe for fan exasperation. Not anger. Not disappointment. Just the desire for something better. Sometime before the Braves report to North Port, it’ll happen.

San Diego Padres

One general manager who has spent the winter doing next to nothing transactionally described his philosophy as such: “You can’t be chasing vibes all the time.” He could have very easily been talking about the past decade of Padres baseball.

San Diego won 93 games last year, the most for the franchise this century, thanks to the talent acquired by GM A.J. Preller, chaser of talent — and the vibes that tend to accompany it. The Padres also lost to the Dodgers in the postseason and then suffered an exodus of talent with Scott, Profar, infielder Ha-Seong Kim and catcher Kyle Higashioka all reaching free agency. San Diego needs a left fielder and another starting pitcher and might not have the payroll to do much. The Padres are searching for value in the outfield mix with the Blue Jays and Mets and perhaps the Braves and Astros. Teams have called on Arráez and starter Dylan Cease and haven’t been rebuffed entirely.

The biggest priority, though, has been Roki Sasaki, the astonishingly talented 23-year-old right-hander who is currently deciding where he wants to play in MLB. Because Sasaki is an international amateur under MLB rules, his free agency is restricted to a relative pittance of a signing bonus — maxing out around $10 million — and a minor league contract. Sasaki will be the biggest bargain in baseball, and while San Diego isn’t banking its offseason on him, losing Sasaki would be calamitous.

Particularly if it’s to the Dodgers. That’s where baseball is right now. Los Angeles is trying to turn a good winter into a second consecutive otherworldly one. And the Padres — and everyone else hamstrung by budgets that simply don’t match the Dodgers’ — are left to wonder how they can stop it.