• Ben Solak, ESPNDec 24, 2024, 06:45 AM ET
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      Ben Solak joined ESPN in 2024 as a national NFL analyst. He previously covered the NFL at The Ringer, Bleeding Green Nation and The Draft Network.

Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season is in the books! We saw the first shutout of the season, a few teams eliminated from playoff contention, some decisive results in NFC playoff races and a fake fumble touchdown in Ben Johnson’s latest audition for every open head coaching job. If someone could please just win Defensive Player of the Year, this regular season would be nearly wrapped, with a bow on top and snug under the tree.

Every Tuesday, I’ll spin the previous week of NFL games forward, looking at what the biggest storylines mean and what comes next. We’ll take a first look at the consequences of “Monday Night Football,” break down a major trend or two and highlight some key individual players and plays. There will be film. There will be stats (a whole section of them). And there will be fun.

This week, we make sense of the Chiefs’ offense. Is Kansas City figuring things out on that side of the ball just in time for the playoffs? Plus, we make the case that New England’s Drake Maye has impressed even more than the other rookie quarterbacks this season, look closer at Michael Penix Jr.’s debut and dive in on the Packers’ showing on Monday night. Let’s jump in.

Jump to a section:
The Big Thing: Can the Chiefs’ offense get hot?
Second Take: Has Maye been the top rookie QB?
Mailbag: Answering questions from … you
Next Ben Stats: Wild Week 16 stats
“Monday Night Football” spin

The Big Thing: The Chiefs’ offense is about to improve

Every week, this column will kick off with one wide look at a key game, player or trend from the previous slate of NFL action. What does it mean for the rest of the season?

This weekend, I had a concerning thought: What if the Chiefs were about to get good on offense?

Of course, many people would rightfully argue the Chiefs are already good on offense. They are fourth in success rate, ninth in expected points added (EPA) per play, ninth in points per drive and seventh in down set conversion rate (how many first-and-10s become a new set of downs or a touchdown). By any measure, it’s a good offense — save for explosive-play rate, of course, in which the Chiefs are bottom five in the NFL.

That isn’t going to change. To create explosive passes, an offense needs pass protection that can hold up for extended dropbacks. The Chiefs are on their fourth left tackle of the season, and the left tackle they have at the moment isn’t a left tackle at all. He’s Joe Thuney, their longtime left guard and break-glass-in-case-of-emergency left tackle. Presumably, when D.J. Humphries returns from injury, he’ll slide back into the left tackle spot and kick Thuney back inside — but Humphries was far from a trustworthy starter in his limited action.

Receivers who can make catches downfield and break tackles after the catch are also needed. The Chiefs do not have this, either. Rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy was meant to be that player in theory, but over his rookie season, he has proven an unreliable downfield receiver and seen his depth of target plummet accordingly. Veteran wideout DeAndre Hopkins was that threat in his prime but lacks the ability to reliably separate downfield. Tight end Travis Kelce is having the exact same issue. Perhaps Hollywood Brown, finally returned from his preseason sternoclavicular injury, will offer some sort of downfield production.

But again, see Problem No. 1. I don’t think the Chiefs are going to solve the explosives problem — at least not entirely. But after a 27-point outing against a good Texans defense, I find myself wondering: What if this has been a long valley for the Chiefs’ offense? And are they finally on their way out?

The first and obvious relief is health. By Week 4, three key Chiefs offensive playmakers — Isiah Pacheco (leg), Rashee Rice (knee) and Brown — were on injured reserve and expected out for an extended period of time.

Pacheco came back to the starting lineup in Week 13 but has been carefully onboarded over that time. He has yet to take more than 50% of the snaps since returning. Brown, who just came back this past week, played only 20 snaps and ran 15 routes. But he also saw eight targets on those 15 routes. Brown will probably enjoy a slow on-ramp, as well. Pacheco and Brown likely will not see a full complement of responsibility until the Chiefs’ first playoff game — most likely in the divisional round, as the Chiefs need to win just one of their remaining two games to secure the first-round bye. I’d imagine Humphries will also be carefully returned to the starting lineup.

When the Chiefs get those three players back, they’ll have the best roster they’ve fielded all season. Again, this team is already top 10 in success rate, EPA per play, points per drive and down set conversion rate. This is a good offense that can get better.

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0:42
Mahomes says ankle ‘in a lot better place’

Patrick Mahomes gives an update on the status of his ankle heading into a matchup vs. the Steelers.

But the return to health isn’t really the secret sauce. Rather, it’s what the Chiefs learned about themselves and their offense in the absence of playmakers that is most significant. Take that development of Worthy. In the absence of Brown and Rice, the Chiefs have had a lot of snaps to work with Worthy and figure out how the rookie fits into the 2024 version of the offense. Worthy’s air yards per target have been rapidly falling, as the Chiefs use him less as a long-speed threat. Instead, they are using his quickness to create solid gains on touches behind the line of scrimmage.

Or take the screen game, which was a critical extension of the run game while Pacheco was out but has quickly been phased out of the offense now that Pacheco is back to grind out those quiet yards on early downs and make third down manageable. Before Week 13, 14.7% of Patrick Mahomes‘ dropbacks had screens; since Week 13, it’s 9.0%.

It’s not that screens and deep balls to Worthy were making the offense bad. It’s that injuries force adaptation. That means experimenting with different players in different roles and finding creative solutions to problems. For most teams, the amount of injuries the Chiefs have endured on offense would lead to a drop in statistical efficiency. But for the third time, this team is top 10 in success rate, EPA per play, points per drive and down set conversion rate.

And it’s not just that the Chiefs have stayed good. They’ve actually improved. By every relevant metric, this 2024 offense is better than the 2023 unit. It is up in EPA from 0.01 to 0.07 and up in success rate from 43.3% to 48.2%. Think again about lessons learned and experimentation around limited personnel. The 2023 Chiefs didn’t yet know how to be this methodical, plodding, high-efficiency/low-explosives offense; they were learning it on the fly. Fast forward to 2024, and the Chiefs now know the algorithm.

The last and most obnoxious reality is this: The Chiefs always rise to the occasion in the postseason. Coach Andy Reid loves to keep a few schematic wrinkles up his sleeve for the postseason, while Mahomes tends to play better in the key games, scrambling with impunity. In each of the past five seasons, the Chiefs have gotten better in postseason play (small sample caveats, of course) as they distill the lessons learned in the regular season into the most potent version of their offense.

This is the latitude afforded by Mahomes. It’s more than just the one-score victories (of which they have 11, tied for an NFL record). It’s more than just the wins in games in which they once trailed (of which they have 11, which is an NFL record). It’s the fact that Mahomes secures all these wins while Kansas City is still figuring out the rest of the offense. The Chiefs can spend more regular-season time than any other team gearing up for the playoffs.

The Chiefs are 14-1. If they secure a 15th win — perhaps Wednesday against Pittsburgh — it’d be the winningest season in franchise history. They currently have a 16-game win streak in one-score games, which is an active record. They’ll be getting healthier on offense than they’ve ever been. It isn’t reasonable for the Chiefs’ offense to suddenly underperform relative to our expectations. If there was a straw that could have broken the camel’s back, it would have done so by now.

So I expect it to get better. Not suddenly explosive, no. But I bet the Chiefs need fewer third-down conversions in upcoming games. I bet they see pass protection take a small step forward. I bet they can rely on the running game a little more. The margins, which have been razor thin, will widen for the best team in the league. Just in time for the playoffs.

Second Take: Drake Maye has been the most impressive rookie QB

ESPN’s “First Take” is known for, well, providing the first take on things — the instant reactions. Second Take is not a place for instant reactions but rather the spot where I’ll let the dust settle before taking perhaps a bit of a contrarian view.

I want to be very clear about this: Washington’s Jayden Daniels has been excellent. He has been better than expected, and not just in the areas where he was already strong (downfield passing and escapability), but also areas in which I thought he’d be deficient (working the middle of the field). He’s a great young passer and has a bright NFL future if he can stay healthy, which is an elevated concern given his frame and play style.

I would also like to be very clear about this: Denver’s Bo Nix has also been good this season. He has been better than expected, and not just in the areas where he was already strong (quick distribution and accuracy), but also areas in which I thought he’d be deficient (downfield ball velocity). He has to improve as a pocket manager and needs to find more opportunities to push the ball downfield, but he looks like a clear starting-caliber quarterback.

It is simultaneously true that Daniels has been excellent, that Nix has been good and that Maye has actually been the most impressive of the three. And it doesn’t take anything away from Daniels or Nix that Maye has been so wonderful.

The average NFL viewer likely hasn’t caught much of Maye’s game this season. The Patriots have only three wins and rarely make “NFL RedZone” appearances. Perhaps the 24-21 loss to the Bills brought a few more eyes to the superhero cape that Maye wears every Sunday.

Here was his best play against Buffalo. It’s a 22-yard gain on a throw to receiver Kayshon Boutte. Maye had to abort a play-action fake after Dorian Williams came free on a blitz, find a new throwing platform while another free rusher came on a blitz and then make an accurate throw against his body to keep the drive alive.

You might look at this play like it’s not that much, but I promise you, this play would be all over the internet and highlight packages if the Patriots won their game on Sunday. It’s not unlike this pass attempt against the Rams, which would also deserve highlight-reel treatment if not for the fact that Boutte couldn’t make the snag.

Or how about this near-touchdown pass to K.J. Osborn — a late scramble-drill throw against the sideline, reminiscent of Josh Allen — against the Bears? It was taken off the board because Osborn illegally touched the football after stepping out of bounds.

Or perhaps this touchdown pass against the Cardinals, which is somehow even more Josh Allen-y than the last play. This one — and I’m just double-checking here — yes, this one actually stood.

Again, there’s an immediate instinct to say, “Well, I didn’t see this immediately plastered to Instagram 10 different times, so it must not be as impressive as [insert Daniels or Nix highlight here].” We have a wins bias when it comes to our highlight-reel plays. But if you sit down and watch Maye, you see top-tier quarterbacking plays over and over and over again. And it isn’t just the wild, out-of-structure backyard football stuff. Look at the timing and placement on this Austin Hoopertouchdownagainst the Colts.

Because the ball is out early and placed above the rim, Maye turns a tight-window throw into a low-risk pass. The sinking corner can’t get to this, and it’s extremely unlikely the linebacker in coverage can elevate and tap this ball into a tip-drill interception. Hooper even has enough room to turn upfield for the score.

Every week, Maye produces at least one Herculean effort in the scramble drill. But it’s the fact that his supporting cast is constantly creating negative environments that makes his continued success all the more impressive. The concern was that Maye might be broken behind this terrible Patriots offensive line, which has surrendered 72 quick pressures since Maye became the starter (tied for Joe Burrow for the most in the NFL). Yet Maye has only gotten better.

Here’s a graph of Maye’s success rate relative to his pressure rate. Look at how much more successful he has been relative to expectation, given the 37.3% pressure rate he’s enduring in New England. The two players to his left are Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. Good company to be in.

We knew the environment would work against Maye when he joined the Patriots, but it’s important to reassess our expectations relative to someone such as Daniels. We thought the Commanders would be a tough environment for Daniels’ development given a questionable playcaller in Kliff Kingsbury and uncertainty along the offensive line. But Kingsbury and the line have exceeded expectations in a vacuum, and Daniels has been a force multiplier to that effect.

The Patriots have met our low expectations. The wide receiver room has cycled through starters, benchings and drama; the primary option has slowly become Boutte, a 2023 sixth-round selection with intermittent success. Late-game scenarios that could have turned losses into confidence-building wins were mismanaged by rookie coach Jerod Mayo. The playcalling has come under warranted scrutiny for a lack of explosive plays, a dogged reliance on screens that don’t return much on investment and an inability to protect Maye with a strong run or YAC game. It is not embellishment to call Maye the best player on the Patriots’ offense, which is both a testament to his skill and a referendum on the roster.

Unbridled optimism for Maye is warranted. Sure, he hasn’t been as polished as Houston’s C.J. Stroud was last season, nor as field-tipping a force as Mahomes and Jackson were in their debut sophomore campaigns. But flick on the film, and the future explosion is not hard to see. If he’s this good on an uphill sled, I cannot imagine how this offense would emerge with a playmaker or two. The Pats could complement all of Maye’s peak plays with a few assists from, say, Tee Higgins, or give him an extra beat for downfield shots with someone like Ronnie Stanley burying blitzers.

Overall, I think this 2024 quarterback group might be historically spectacular, so this take on Maye vs. Daniels vs. Nix might end up pointless. But I won’t let the Patriots’ record stop Maye from getting his deserved day in the sun in this crowded rookie class. He has been at least as good — and I’d say better — as all of his contemporaries. And with good team building, the Patriots should be ready to vault into AFC East contention as soon as next season.

From y’all

The best part of writing this column is hearing from all of you. Hit me on X (@BenjaminSolak) or by email (benjamin.solak@espn.com) anytime — but especially on Monday each week — to ask a question and potentially get it answered here.

From MTG:“Is Arthur Smith vindicated in favoring Jonnu Smith over Kyle Pitts? Smith is electric in Miami.”

Kind of?

The tight end position is very cool. There are a lot of unique body types/skill sets that make it to that position. Jonnu Smith — who is 6-foot-3 and 248 pounds and as smooth a runner as you’ll see in the NFL — plays the same position as Pittsburgh’s Darnell Washington, who is 6-foot-7 and 264 pounds and basically an offensive tackle. In the case of Smith and Pitts (6-foot-6, 245 pounds), you couldn’t really have two more disparate skill sets. Arthur Smith, then the coach of the Falcons, tried last season to use them both in ways that maximized their strengths, but in a heavy run and boot-action offense, Jonnu Smith’s game is far more preferable. He’s a more viable blocker and much better at turning a shallow target into a big gain.

I don’t think we should use Jonnu Smith’s success now as a referendum on Pitts or Arthur Smith, though. I would prefer to use it as Jonnu himself did — a moment to shout out Dolphins tight ends coach and assistant head coach Jon Embree. Embree had the same role with the 49ers when they brought George Kittle along, and he followed Mike McDaniel to Miami, where the tight end position has gone from a complete afterthought to a key part of the offense.

I really like ex-tight ends coaches (Sean McVay, Dan Campbell, Kevin Stefanski) as risers in the coaching field because they’ve had a hand in both the run and pass games. I wonder if Embree gets any head coaching looks in a light year for offensive options.

From Ro Ro:“Top free agent signings now that we have a full season to judge it?”

Oh, excellent question. Let’s knock out the obvious ones very fast: Sam Darnold, Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs were all season-altering signings.

I also think the Vikings knocked it out of the park with their edge rushers in Andrew Van Ginkel (two years, $20 million) and Jonathan Greenard (four years, $72 million), especially when you consider how they let a franchise cornerstone in Danielle Hunter out of the building at the same position. And weirdly, Hunter (who leads the league in pressures by a huge margin) was a good signing for the Texans, too!

The best player on the Packers’ defense has been safety Xavier McKinney, signed for four years and $68 million. Green Bay is a rare contributor at the top of the free agent market, so it was cool to see it take a big swing and connect. The addition of Jonnu Smith (two years, $10 million) probably saved the Dolphins’ offense, given how poorly their wideouts are playing, and Miami’s Jordyn Brooks (three years, $30 million) has also been one of the best linebackers in football this season.

Other great, lower-key signings: Eagles LB Zack Baun, Steelers S DeShon Elliott, Titans C Lloyd Cushenberry III (was lights out before an Achilles injury), Broncos LB Cody Barton, Lions DT DJ Reader (a huge reason Detroit’s defense was a top unit before and even during its injury bug) and Falcons WR Darnell Mooney.

From Scott:“If the Giants hold on to the 1.01 in the draft, who do they take?”

The desperate trade offer from whomever is running the Raiders.

From Max:“Are defensive PIs out of control?”

Defensive pass interference has always been out of control, and the solution is extremely simple. If the ball doesn’t touch either the receiver or defender, you can’t call DPI. You can call defensive holding if the corner impedes the receiver from getting to a ball by holding him, and you can call illegal contact if he stops him from getting into his route downfield.

But these underthrown moon balls that are nothing short of DPI prayers in which receivers invite contact from defensive backs and then flop over on a technically catchable football that lands 3 yards short of them? No more.

From Jake:“Vikings’ ‘Camp Rock’ celly is the best celly of the season?”

I’ve been scared to admit this on social media, so I’ll put it here, where nobody is allowed to get mad at me because this is my column …

I don’t know what “Camp Rock” is.

Next Ben Stats

NFL Next Gen Stats are unique and insightful nuggets of data that are gleaned from tracking chips and massive databases. Next Ben Stats are usually numbers I made up. Both are below.

2: That’s how many interception-creating miscommunications Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith and receiver DK Metcalf have had in key late-game moments.

The latter of the two was against the Vikings on Sunday. Smith had just authored a go-ahead touchdown drive that was immediately answered by an incredible Sam Darnold-Justin Jefferson connection. After a missed 60-yard field goal attempt and a Vikings punt, Seattle had the ball with 55 seconds left, no timeouts and 50 or so yards to drive into field goal range. Not easy, but not impossible.

Instead, this spectacular game ended with a flop, as Smith immediately threw an interception targeting Metcalf. Smith wanted Metcalf to break into the sideline, while Metcalf rounded off his break and ran upfield, pulling himself into coverage.

The other one came in a 36-24 loss to the 49ers in October. Metcalf was running over the middle of the field and once again carried his route upfield instead of breaking it off as Smith anticipated.

These Metcalf issues bring into question the future of the Seahawks’ pass-catching group. The emergence of second-year pro Jaxon Smith-Njigba has clearly shaken the wide receiver hierarchy in Seattle. Metcalf is under contract for only one more season, in which his cap hit jumps from $15 million to $31.875 million. If he and Smith continue to have these frustrating, game-losing disagreements, I imagine Metcalf’s name will percolate in trade rumors as we approach the new league year — and there would be teams interested in a 28-year-old who can run a 4.33-second 40-yard dash.

100%: That was Falcons rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr.’s completion percentage on throws between the numbers against the Giants on Sunday. He went 11-for-11 for 130 yards.

It’s important not to overstate the value of this. A lot of offenses are built to attack the intermediate middle of the field, Zac Robinson’s included. Even for those young quarterbacks who didn’t throw often to the middle of the field in college (see: Daniels, Jayden), the league’s offensive minds have become so good at opening up these throws that rookies can be immediately successful in that key region of the passing game. So we don’t want to get too far over our skis here.

With that said, Penix is the greatest thing to happen to the Falcons since Michael Vick. (That is not serious … please don’t screenshot that.) As I wrote last week following the benching of Kirk Cousins, the Falcons’ offense was capable of taking an immediate leap with Penix at the helm because of his ability to move and drive the football — two key aspects of quarterbacking that Cousins physically lacked after an Achilles injury and down the long stretch of the season.

Penix’s box score doesn’t jump out, and the 34 points is lying to you; the Falcons scored two pick-sixes on the day. But on the eye test, Penix was exactly what he was billed as out of college: a big pocket passer willing to trigger fast and make aggressive throws. He fit like a glove with wideout Drake London and provided some relief to the offensive line and run game. First box checked.

1st: That’s the Ravens’ defensive rank by EPA per dropback since Week 10. Before that, they were 28th. (Shoutout to ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder for a guest appearance on Next Ben Stats this week.)

In general, when we break the season into chunks, we often think we’re measuring something when in reality we’re measuring noise and opponent strength. That might be true of the Ravens’ defense, who have faced the Giants and Steelers for half of their games since Week 10. But there’s still something here.

We’re also catching a clear personnel shift in Baltimore. Safeties Marcus Williams (599) and Eddie Jackson (339) took a combined 938 defensive snaps in Weeks 1-10. Since then, they’ve taken two. Williams has been benched; Jackson has been outright released.

In their place, Ar’Darius Washington — a smaller player who has largely played special teams and played only slot corner on defense previously — has taken over as one starting safety. The other spot has been filled by Kyle Hamilton, the Ravens’ star safety who was playing mostly in the box to start the season. He’s excellent in that role — blitzing, jumping into passing lanes, blowing up screens and erasing tight ends. And the theory was sound. The best players should be as close to the ball and in as many plays as possible. But the lack of speed and tackling at the deep safety spots was simply too much to overcome for Baltimore.

So Hamilton (who is simply the most versatile defender in football, full stop) seamlessly slid from that box role to a new deep safety role. Look at how Hamilton’s alignment (per NFL Next Gen Stats player tracking) changed after Week 10, when the Ravens made their personnel change.

This wasn’t the only change for personnel, and Hamilton’s movement has hurt the Ravens’ effectiveness near the line of scrimmage against the run and screen games (though some of that is very noisy because of injuries elsewhere). But in general, we can be confident that the Ravens have ascended from “very good offense, very bad defense” to “very good offense, maybe good enough defense to actually sustain a run.” And that’s a big deal in the AFC playoff picture.

‘Monday Night Shutout’

Each week, we will pick out one or two of the biggest storylines from “Monday Night Football” and break down what it means for the rest of the season.

The first shutout of the season! While it would have been cool to go the whole season without one, this was still the longest an NFL season has gone before a shutout was achieved, so I’ll take it.

As far as shutouts go, the Spencer Rattler-led New Orleans Saints team that was missing Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Erik McCoy and Taysom Hill and had to travel to a bitter-cold Lambeau Field was a pretty likely option. But a commanding win like the Packers had Monday night is hard to do in any conditions. The last time the Packers beat a team this badly, it was a 34-0 win over the Vikings in 2007.

Perhaps the most disrespectful stat of them all? Nine different Packers had carries in this game. Three running backs (all three of whom scored a touchdown), three wide receivers, two quarterbacks and a tight end (Tucker Kraft on the TE-as-a-QB sneak). That’s the most ball carriers for a team in the past five years, and it’s a testament to how diverse — and dominant — this Packers’ run offense has become.

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0:39
Josh Jacobs’ mean stiff-arm sets up Green Bay’s first TD

Josh Jacobs’ stiff-arm to the 1-yard line leads to a Dontayvion Wicks receiving touchdown.

Green Bay’s past few games have been outstanding, and this was just the icing on a very easy cake. The Packers have now scored at least 30 points in each of their past five contests, and while they have no shot of winning the NFC North, they can spoil the Vikings’ chances with a win in Minnesota this upcoming Sunday.