If there were ever a game from the 2024 season to run back, it’s hard to pick a better sequel than Ohio State playing Oregon again.

In the College Football Playoff quarterfinals at the Rose Bowl, we get Round 2 of perhaps the season’s best prizefight.

Oregon’s 32-31 victory on Oct. 12 in Eugene, which included three fourth-quarter lead changes, had a bit of everything.

Just the final two minutes were enough fodder for a Netflix series. There was an alleged intentional penalty that drained critical seconds off the clock and prompted a rule change. There was a last-second gaffe by OSU quarterback Will Howard that cost Ohio State a shot at a winning field goal. And there was a controversial offensive pass interference call on star Ohio State freshman Jeremiah Smith that boomeranged the Buckeyes out of field goal range on the final drive.

Those plays on the last drive overshadowed an overall banger of a game — seven overall lead changes, Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel showcasing his near-flawless brilliance and Oregon coach Dan Lanning calling a successful line-drive onside kick to epitomize how he lives the coaching mantra that fortune favors the bold.

So what can we expect Wednesday? Ideally, a game that lives up to its predecessor.

ESPN polled 10 NFL scouts on their winner, and six of them picked Oregon, with reasons ranging from Lanning’s big-game guts to the Ducks’ unflinching consistency to a mismatch up front when the Ducks defensive line plays against Ohio State’s offensive line. (Remember, star Ducks defensive end Jordan Burch didn’t play in the first game and Ohio State was much healthier up front heading into the game.)

The scouts we polled disagree with the oracles in the desert, as No. 1 Oregon is a 2.5-point underdog to the No. 6 Buckeyes. If that holds, it will be the first No. 1-ranked team to be an underdog to a team outside the top five since 2007, when No. 9 Oklahoma was favored over No. 1 Missouri.

Here’s a breakdown of what scouts and opposing coaches who have studied both the Ducks and Bucks think will be the keys that determine the game.

How can Oregon win?

1. The biggest mismatch

Ohio State’s offensive line had a brutal night in Eugene, starting with star left tackle Josh Simmons suffering a season-ending injury in the second quarter. He is the program’s top projected NFL prospect for the 2025 draft, and that injury has led to the Buckeyes offensive line combinations spinning like a roulette wheel for much of the season. There were also four false-start penalties — three on offensive linemen and one on tight end Gee Scott Jr. — and a delay of game, as the noise at the perpetually hostile Autzen Stadium clearly rattled Ohio State’s offense early in the game.

Credit Oregon’s defensive line — a generally underrated group — for adding to the havoc. Per ESPN Research, Oregon got pressure on 34% of dropbacks in the first game. Only Michigan and Indiana had higher rates against the Buckeyes.

One of the best compliments to Lanning and his program’s roster construction is that the Ducks came into the Big Ten prepared to dominate in the trenches. Oregon had just one sack in the earlier game, but proved stouter against the run. (Ohio State averaged 4.3 yards per carry to Oregon’s 5.0.)

Since that game, Ohio State has also lost starting center Seth McLaughlin, the Rimington Trophy winner for the country’s top center. The Buckeyes have used 23 different offensive line combinations, per ESPN Research, after using 15 combined the previous two seasons.

Star guard Donovan Jackson, who projects as a second-round draft pick on the interior, has selflessly played out of position at tackle to keep Ohio State afloat up front. He has played fine there, but is still a guard who’ll be a top-50 NFL pick masquerading as a tackle. He and right tackle Josh Fryar will be tested by Burch and edges Matayo Uiagalelei and Teitum Tuioti.

“I feel like Oregon can find ways to play in a lighter box with their defensive line matchup against Ohio State’s offensive line,” a coach familiar with both teams said. “Ohio State may be hard-pressed to turn this into a high-scoring battle. The strength in terms of Ohio State’s defense is going to have to show up.”

2. Mettle in the trenches

One of the subplots lost in all the wonderful chaos of this first matchup was that the game provided a breakout for Uiagalelei, the Oregon sophomore edge rusher who is the younger brother of veteran college quarterback DJ Uiagalelei.

He logged Oregon’s only sack, registered a tackle for loss and is on a trajectory to be a highly regarded prospect for the 2026 draft. Uiagalelei leads the team with 10.5 sacks — which ranks second in the Big Ten, behind only Penn State’s Abdul Carter — and also has 13 TFLs, an interception and 2 forced fumbles.

He’s 6-foot-5, 270 pounds and has been both prolific and clutch this season, as he had a key drive-killing third-down run stop in the second quarter against OSU. A veteran scout said to not be surprised if next summer Uiagalelei ends up as one of the faces we see in the way-too-early mock drafts for 2026.

Burch ranks as Mel Kiper’s No. 7 edge rusher, which should project him comfortably in the top 50 of the upcoming draft. His return presents a big challenge for the Buckeyes’ offensive line, as he has moved like a chess piece for matchups.

Defensive tackle Derrick Harmon, a transfer from Michigan State, has been one of the country’s most underappreciated players all season. He forced a Quinshon Judkins fumble in the first matchup and has been a general menace in the middle all year. He earned third-team All-Big Ten honors and might end up Oregon’s top draft prospect in this class. He’s 310 pounds and teams up with a fellow interior lineman, 340-pound Jamaree Caldwell, to give teams a pick-your-poison option in the run game.

“Those dudes are big interior guys and stout and hard to move,” another opposing coach said. “They handled us good inside, and you have to pick whether you want to run at them or run around them.”

Ohio State offensive coordinator Chip Kelly neutralized the Buckeyes’ disadvantages up front against Tennessee with creativity and misdirection in his playcalling. Will we see that again?

3. The speed advantage

That point about the difficulty running around Oregon highlights an observation made by multiple coaches that’s hard to quantify in any statistics — the Ducks are fast.

Lanning came from the SEC and has built the program in the mode of Georgia and Alabama, the places where he worked previously. And opposing coaches insist that even Oregon’s defensive line is quick, with one pointing to speed being the key difference between playing the Buckeyes and Ducks.

Neither linebacker Jeffrey Bassa nor Bryce Boettcher is regarded as a top-100 NFL prospect, but they are great college players who fly around and are sure tacklers.

“The speed is different in my opinion,” the opposing offensive coach said. “I think Ohio State is bigger and thicker when you look at them. They’re not as fast as Oregon. I think Oregon just has a different type of speed. You think you’re about to get 5 or 6 yards and they come and suck up your running back like an air vacuum, and you get a 1- or 2-yard gain. They are firing fast, man.”

4. The unflappable QB

Dillon Gabriel is 24 years old and has been around long enough that he played two seasons at UCF for Josh Heupel. Gabriel has hopscotched from UCF to Oklahoma to Oregon and produced so consistently that he’s No. 1 in college football history in starts (62) and touchdowns responsible for (187) and No. 2 in total yards (19,675).

He can pass former Houston star Case Keenum in touchdown passes Wednesday with a big game, as he has 153 and trails by just two.

Gabriel played lights-out in the first matchup, going 4-for-4 for 177 yards against Ohio State on passes thrown more than 20 yards in the air.

That ultimately proved the difference in the game that changed the narrative around Gabriel’s draft stock. There’s a reason Gabriel is still playing college football, as he is slighter than NFL franchises would prefer. He is listed at 6-foot and 200 pounds, but appears more like 5-10 and doesn’t profile as a dynamic athlete. (Even if he can run a bit, as he showed scooting for a 27-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Buckeyes in Eugene.)

Gabriel has put together an all-time college career — aided by a bonus season from the pandemic — and in 2024 has catapulted him from someone who wasn’t likely to be drafted to an expected third-day pick.

“He’s 5-foot-10 and he’s not a runner,” a scout said. “I know he has run plays, but he’s basically Kyler Murray’s size without the elite athleticism. He doesn’t have a great arm, but from the neck up he’s a really intriguing player and talent.

“When someone picks a backup quarterback is always tricky. Some think third round, some later. There’s a lot of really good college quarterbacks who fit that profile this year, guys like Riley Leonard and Kurtis Rourke. They’ll be somewhere in Day 3.”

5. Finding holes in the secondary

Few high-profile players have struggled the way Ohio State defensive back Denzel Burke did in the first matchup in Eugene. Credit Ducks offensive coordinator Will Stein, a precocious young playcaller, for finding a weakness and pounding away at it.

The Ducks targeted Burke in coverage six times, and all six balls were completed for a combined 157 yards and two touchdowns, per ESPN Research.

Other than that game, Burke had a solid season for Ohio State. He played well against Tennessee in the first round of the playoff.

Can Oregon isolate him with talented receivers such as Evan Stewart, who caught the two touchdown passes on him in the last game? It will be interesting to see how early Oregon looks his way and how Burke responds to any early adversity.

“If you had to pick a guy in their back end to pick on, it’s Burke,” one of the opposing coaches said. “He’s a good player, but there’s not many weaknesses back there.”

How can Ohio State win?

1. Pure talent advantage?

For all the talk of Ohio State’s $20 million roster this year, scouts project the two teams as close in talent.

This is especially true without Simmons and McLaughlin, as Oregon has a clear advantage on the offensive line.

Still, one scout predicted Ohio State — depending on early entries — will have 13 to 15 players drafted. The record for players taken in one draft is held by Georgia in 2022, when it had 15 picked. Another scout projected Oregon will have about 15 players invited to the NFL combine, which is usually a strong barometer of talent. (In the four-team CFP era, having 10 players drafted was a strong signal of a playoff-caliber team. Both teams will hit that mark with ease.)

Ohio State has the two best NFL prospects on the field — Smith and safety Caleb Downs — but neither is draft-eligible. Oregon could end up with three first-round picks, but perhaps none in the top 20 — Burch, Harmon and left tackle Josh Conerly Jr., who could get nudged inside to guard.

Don’t be surprised if Ohio State doesn’t have any top-15 picks, but has a flurry of guys taken from 35 to 100. One scout mused that from a pure talent perspective, Ohio State is comparable to Michigan last year, as it lacks the highest end of draft-eligible players but has a steady wave of excellent contributors.

Ohio State’s wide receiver corps and secondary are its distinct advantages over Oregon.

“Personnel-wise, they are incredibly impressive,” a coach familiar with both programs said. “Davison Igbinosun was the best corner that we played this year. The safety play is exceptional, as is their nickel (Jordan Hancock). Those guys were different. And their defensive tackle play is exceptional.”

And don’t forget about prolific RB TreVeyon Henderson, who has rushed for 3,576 yards in his Ohio State career — and broke a 53-yarder against Oregon earlier this season.

2. Edge on the edge?

There’s no denying the talent on the Ohio State defensive line — all four starters are expected to be drafted. Tackles Tyleik Williams and Ty Hamilton are a formidable pairing, with Williams one of the best prospects on OSU’s roster.

Edges Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau have struggled at times to live up to their considerable recruiting hype. But it’s undeniable that both have finished strong. Tuimoloau earned first-team All-Big Ten honors this year with eight sacks, including two against Tennessee. Sawyer, who earned second-team All-Big Ten status, had a clutch interception against Michigan. Combined against Tennessee, they created 14 pressures and registered 3.5 sacks.

But the glaring hole in their résumé is the lack of production against Oregon, as the Buckeyes failed to register a sack. Some of that should be credited to Gabriel’s quick-game wizardry and his innate ability to swiftly distribute the ball. Also, Oregon’s offensive tackles — Conerly and Ajani Cornelius — are good NFL prospects and a program strength.

Ohio State needs to disrupt Gabriel more to win this game.

3. Learn from last time

The inability to make Gabriel uncomfortable resulted in wholesale changes to the Buckeyes’ defense. Ohio State coach Ryan Day went as far as to say it had to “almost start from scratch” after the loss, in which the Buckeyes gave up 496 yards of total offense.

It’s telling that such changes were required for a defense that finished No. 1 in the country in points per game (11.4), yards per play (4.1) and red zone touchdown percentage (38%).

But coaches who played the Buckeyes noticed distinct differences after that Oregon matchup.

“It almost felt like after the Oregon game they were forcing themselves to be more multiple,” one of the opposing coaches said. “You saw things in the Purdue game that you didn’t see prior — odd structure stuff, things that may have more married up to what [Ohio State defensive coordinator] Jim Knowles did at Oklahoma State.”

The other obvious trend that emerged from the Oregon loss was a change in how often Ohio State blitzed by design. Through the Oregon game, Ohio State brought five-plus pass rushers just 22% of the time. Since that loss, that number has jumped to 38%, per ESPN Research.

The defensive case for OSU in why this game will be different is that more designed pressures could help its ends get home to the quarterback and help out Burke and other defenders by forcing Gabriel to get rid of the ball faster.

But that comes with a compelling caveat for this game — Gabriel’s completion percentage barely dips against the blitz. It’s 72.9% against the blitz and 73.2% otherwise. That makes for a fascinating chess match.

4. Will he stay composed?

By nearly every metric, Will Howard has been one of the country’s top quarterbacks. He trails only Shedeur Sanders in completion percentage at 73.2%. In seven games this year, including against Tennessee, he has completed more than 80% of his passes. He’s the best passer in the country statistically against the blitz, per ESPN Research.

But his consistency and production belie his reliability. His mistakes have been few, but massive.

He threw a pick-six and fumbled into the end zone in Ohio State’s narrow win at Penn State. He threw two interceptions against Michigan, including one early in the game that set up the Wolverines’ only touchdown. The other came at the Michigan 16-yard line on a third-and-7 with the game tied at 10.

Then there’s the infamous play to end the Oregon game, as Howard showed a lack of poise and awareness when he scrambled to the Oregon 26 and slid after time expired. Ohio State had a time out remaining.

Howard played well against Tennessee, including completing 7 of 8 passes more than 15 yards downfield. Oregon’s secondary is one of its relative weaknesses. It has experienced, fast players who are solid as a unit but lack the highest-end individual talent. Can Howard’s offensive line give him time to exploit that, and will he avoid punitive big-game mistakes?

5. The Jeremiah Smith Factor

Ohio State freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith is one of the most exciting prospects to come through college football in recent seasons.

He has already broken the record for touchdown catches by a Buckeyes freshman. His 12 touchdown catches — and counting — are well ahead of Cris Carter’s eight. Smith caught two touchdowns against Tennessee, and his career percolates with promise.

Smith played well against Oregon’s secondary — nine catches for 100 yards and a touchdown. But his defining moment from that game was the offensive pass interference call that forced the Buckeyes to vacate field goal range, as they’d advanced to the 28-yard line, and set up the frenetic finish.

How special is Smith? One scout told ESPN that he’d be a top-10 pick in the upcoming NFL draft, and there would be a debate over WR1 between Smith and Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan.

“His play strength and his ability to play big at that age is really, really rare. Even Marv [Harrison Jr.], he was so good, but he played small and crafty,” the scout said. “This dude is physical, bullying corners at 18 and going up and getting 50-50 balls. He’s really physical for a guy that’s so young.”

Smith turned 19 in November. He’s such a promising prospect that scouts wonder what he’ll do to improve in the next two years.

“That’s what I’m curious to see,” the scout said. “I really don’t know. Maybe there’s some versatility to move him around the formations and run Deebo Samuel stuff when they break in a new quarterback next year.”

Smith has been so dominant that he has managed to draw attention from Emeka Egbuka, who could become the leading receiver in Ohio State history Wednesday. Egbuka is No. 4 now with 2,681 yards and could pass David Boston, Chris Olave and Michael Jenkins by the end of the Rose Bowl. Jenkins holds the school’s mark with 2,746 yards.

Smith’s 1,037 yards as a freshman puts him on track to break that record during his three-year career.