The 2024 college football season has been a feast of upsets, plot twists and power struggles. Now we reach the main course: a Rivalry Week that gives us all of the reliable flavors — traditional holiday games, conference title stakes — plus some new notes. The jockeying for potential at-large bids in the expanded, 12-team College Football Playoff has been a welcome addition, as has the increased importance of conference titles themselves.

We’ve got all the usual huge games — the Iron Bowl, The Game, the Egg Bowl, Farmageddon, you name it — but the stakes are higher than ever. Here’s everything you need to follow for a weekend like no other.

Jump to a section:
Aggieland Showdown | Playing out?
Playing in? | Big 12 questions
FCS lookahead | Week 14 playlist
Small school showcases

The Game of the Week in Aggieland

We have three three-loss SEC teams — No. 13 Alabama, No. 14 Ole Miss, No. 15 South Carolina — hovering on the outskirts of the CFP race, waiting to take advantage of another contender’s slip-up. Another, however, has a chance to play itself into the playoff field automatically. If Texas A&M upsets Texas on Saturday night, in the return of this legendary rivalry game, the Aggies will steal the Longhorns’ spot in the SEC championship and place themselves one win from an automatic bid.

No. 3 Texas Longhorns at No. 20 Texas A&M Aggies (Saturday, 7:30 p.m., ABC)

A&M’s loss to Auburn last week was a negative but accurate depiction of the Aggies in 2024. They were undone early by big plays — a 63-yard TD pass, then a 60-yard pass that set up another TD — then overcame a 21-0 deficit with the dual-threat capabilities of quarterback Marcel Reed and the type of second-half surge that beat LSU.

A&M wins games by avoiding and creating negative plays and winning the line of scrimmage battle, especially near the goal line.

• Pct. of plays gaining zero or fewer yards: A&M offense 27.7% (21st), A&M defense 39.6% (fifth)

• Goal-to-go TD rate: A&M offense 90.0% (fifth), A&M defense 47.1% (second)

A&M also sometimes loses games by losing the big-play battle.

• Pct. of plays gaining 20-plus yards: A&M offense 5.9% (100th), A&M defense 6.6% (71st)

The balance is off — the Aggies have given up at least 31 points in regulation in two straight SEC games — but this could make for an interesting matchup against a Texas offense that is growing less efficient. Since quarterback Quinn Ewers‘ return to the Longhorns’ lineup following an injury, Texas ranks just 57th nationally in points per drive, with iffy efficiency (66th in success rate) and far too many negative plays (113th in TFLs allowed) and turnovers (89th in TO rate). It has been an almost perfectly average offense in this span.

The saving grace? Random chunk plays. The 10-1 Horns have gained at least 20 yards on 9.2% of snaps in this span, the ninth-highest rate in FBS. Combined with maybe the best pass defense in college football, that has been enough to fend off the upset bug. Coach Steve Sarkisian said Ewers should be fine after battling an ankle issue against Kentucky last week, so he’ll start.

We don’t know that A&M, with its freshman QB, will be able to move the ball consistently against such an outstanding defense. But if the Aggies figure out a way to get that point total into the 20s and keep the big-play breakdowns to a minimum — a couple of mighty big ifs — an upset goes from possible to likely. And the jockeying for playoff position among SEC teams could get even messier.

Current line: Texas -5 | SP+ projection: Texas by 5.7 | FPI projection: Texas by 10.9

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Which team is most likely to play itself out?

With a 12-team playoff in place, we’ve unearthed a new category of particularly important Rivalry Week games: those involving well-positioned potential at-large teams — teams ranked fifth to 11th — that really don’t want to suffer a loss right now.

No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at USC Trojans (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., CBS)

Since suffering the single most befuddling loss of 2024, to NIU in Week 2, Notre Dame has rolled. The Fighting Irish have scored at least 28 points in each of the past 10 games and allowed more than 14 points just once. Granted, they’ve played only one team in the SP+ top 60 in this span, but they’ve met the moment, and if Texas doesn’t have the best pass defense in the country, the Irish do. At fifth, their CFP hopes might survive a loss, but I wouldn’t recommend finding out. After all, three teams fell by at least six spots in the CFP rankings just this week.

Eleven games in, USC has been good at everything at least once and has at least briefly led in every fourth quarter. The Trojans are also just 6-5. They’re difficult to figure out, but they’re also the best team the Irish have played since Louisville.

Current line: Irish -7.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 10.5 | FPI projection: Irish by 8.0

No. 6 Miami Hurricanes at Syracuse Orange (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN)

Syracuse is 8-3 in Fran Brown’s first season there, and now the Orange have a shot at a memorable upset. Miami’s defense has become a fatal flaw because of big-play breakdowns, and Syracuse isn’t incredibly explosive, instead leaning on accuracy and efficiency from quarterback Kyle McCord. But if the Orange find a ball-control rhythm, anxiety could kick in for a Miami team with a lot to lose.

(Actually, I’m not sure this is true. I’m not sure Miami quarterback Cam Ward knows what football anxiety is.)

Current line: Miami -11 | SP+ projection: Miami by 18.1 | FPI projection: Miami by 13.2

No. 8 Tennessee Volunteers at Vanderbilt Commodores (Saturday, noon, ABC)

Vanderbilt hasn’t topped 17 points in its past three games. The upset of Alabama has made this a memorable season no matter what, but the gas tank appears to be empty. Or maybe quarterback Diego Pavia has been saving up his remaining magic for this one?

No one benefited more from last week’s SEC chaos than Tennessee, which went from out of the CFP to one win away from punching its ticket. The Vols are close to the finish line, but “All we have to do is beat Diego Pavia to meet our goals!” still seems foreboding.

Current line: Vols -10.5 (down from -12 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Vols by 17.3 | FPI projection: Vols by 12.3

Cal Golden Bears at No. 9 SMU Mustangs (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN2)

It’s like we’re bringing back all the season’s main characters for one last go-round. Early-Season-Darling Vanderbilt has a chance to do something fun, as does Early-Season-Darling California. The Golden Bears finally clinched bowl eligibility with a stirring comeback win over Stanford, and while their offense is stuttering a bit, the defense forces loads of turnovers. What’s SMU’s biggest weakness? Turnovers! The Mustangs suffered three in their loss to BYU and six in a near-loss to Duke. This is an increasingly well-rounded team, but holding onto their top-10 ranking will require holding onto the ball.

Current line: SMU -13.5 (up from -12.5) | SP+ projection: SMU by 13.2 | FPI projection: SMU by 14.2

Oregon State Beavers at No. 11 Boise State Broncos (Friday, noon, Fox)

We’ll squeeze Boise State into this group even though the Broncos’ motivations are a little different. Not only are they in the front of the line for the Group of 5’s guaranteed playoff spot, they’re also currently in position for a top-four seed and a bye. Regardless, the goal is the same: don’t lose.

BSU’s Ashton Jeanty probably needs another massive game to keep Heisman hopes alive, and the OSU defense might be generous in that regard. But the Beavers also run efficiently, and quarterback Ben Gulbranson brought some passing explosiveness to the table last week.

Current line: BSU -19 | SP+ projection: BSU by 23.5 | FPI projection: BSU by 21.1

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at No. 7 Georgia Bulldogs (Friday, 7:30 p.m., ABC)

Ten years ago, Georgia Tech took down ninth-ranked Georgia 30-24 in a wild overtime that featured two Georgia fumbles at the Tech 1, a Tech fumble at the Georgia 1 (returned 99 yards for a TD), a go-ahead Georgia TD with 18 seconds left, a 53-yard Harrison Butker field goal at the buzzer and a game-clinching D.J. White interception.

The Yellow Jackets were 12.5-point underdogs in that one; the task’s a bit steeper this time, but it might be an even costlier loss for a Georgia team that will get two chances to clinch a bid (this game and the SEC championship).

Current line: UGA -19.5 | SP+ projection: UGA by 25.9 | FPI projection: UGA by 19.2

Purdue Boilermakers at No. 10 Indiana Hoosiers (Saturday, 7 p.m., FS1)

Power-conference teams favored against other power-conference teams by over 28 points are 221-5 in the past 20 years; it would take a particular amount of rivalry witchcraft to make this one interesting.

We could still learn a lot about Indiana, though. The Hoosiers suffered their first setback against Ohio State, and opponents are suddenly flustering quarterback Kurtis Rourke. Through eight games, Rourke completed 69% of his passes under pressure with just six sacks, averaging 7.3 yards per dropback; in the past two games, he has gone 2-for-12 with nine sacks. Yards per dropback: minus-1.9. Purdue has been awful in 2024, but linebackers Kydran Jenkins and Will Heldt do blitz well.

Current line: Indiana -29 (up from -28) | SP+ projection: Indiana by 40.8 | FPI projection: Indiana by 32.5

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Who might play their way in?

The 2024 SEC has the 10th-best average SP+ percentile rating of all time, the third best since 1976. Being that it also has 16 teams, more than any historic conference above it, you could easily assert that it’s one of the best conferences we’ve ever seen.

At the moment, this conference would also get only three teams into the CFP field because too many of them have lost three or more games.

Is this fair? Hell yes, it’s fair! That’s what the money’s for! SEC teams cash very large checks for their troubles. If any of them were to desire a lighter schedule, the Big 12 would gladly take them. Beyond that, the bubble teams haven’t exactly lost to only top-10 opponents. Bama, Ole Miss and Texas A&M have lost five games to teams currently 6-5 or worse. All these teams had to do was handle their business, and they’d be in.

Of course, no one has been left out of the field yet either, and with another week of potential upsets among contenders, A&M isn’t the only SEC team that could play itself in.

No. 15 South Carolina Gamecocks at No. 12 Clemson Tigers (Saturday, noon, ESPN)

The winner of this one is going to have an awfully tantalizing ranking next week. After starting 3-3, South Carolina has won five straight, mostly by large margins. The Gamecocks’ offense is still inconsistent and reliant on random explosions, but those explosions are increasing. Paired with one of the best pass rushes in the country, it has made them quite dangerous.

Despite an 0-2 record against SP+ top-30 teams (Georgia and Louisville beat it by a combined 43), Clemson is somehow one spot away from the playoff. The Tigers’ offense is suffering diminishing returns, but if they handle one of the hottest teams in the country, that will assuage some doubts.

Current line: Clemson -2.5 | SP+ projection: Clemson by 0.9 | FPI projection: Clemson by 2.4

Auburn Tigers at No. 13 Alabama Crimson Tide (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ABC)

After a number of late-game collapses, Auburn finally closed the deal in last Saturday’s upset of Texas A&M. The Tigers have overachieved against SP+ projections in four of five games. Alabama, meanwhile, just suffered a dire blowout in Norman. The Crimson Tide offense, though still explosive, proved its floor is much lower than usual, and the defense will be without linebacker and anchor Deontae Lawson the rest of the season. Without a strong rebound, Bama won’t be on the playoff bubble anymore.

Current line: Bama -11.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 16.2 | FPI projection: Bama by 17.4

Mississippi State Bulldogs at No. 14 Ole Miss Rebels (Friday, 3:30 p.m., ABC)

With a young core led by freshman quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr., MSU’s offense is flashing future potential. The Bulldogs’ defense, however, ranks 130th in points allowed per drive. Weird things happen in the Egg Bowl, and Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart lost the plot late against Florida. But as with Indiana-Purdue, it would take a spectacular amount of rivalry magic to make this one weird.

Current line: Rebels -26 | SP+ projection: Rebels by 35.6 | FPI projection: Rebels by 25.5

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What the heck will happen in the Big 12?

There are 16 teams in the Big 12. Nine still have a shot at the Big 12 championship! We walked through a couple of chaos scenarios Sunday, but while the imagination runs wild, the title will likely still go to one of three primary contenders: Arizona State, BYU or Iowa State. At least two of them (and maybe Colorado) would have to lose to get into the wild scenarios.

Kansas State Wildcats at No. 18 Iowa State Cyclones (Saturday, 7:30 p.m., Fox)

Of the four teams tied at 6-2, Iowa State and Arizona State hold the key tiebreakers and would advance to the Big 12 championship with wins. But the Cyclones have to host a volatile Kansas State team that has averaged 37 points in wins and 14 per game in losses. Either it all works or it all doesn’t for the Wildcats.

ISU’s defense has wobbled of late but forces turnovers well (that’s K-State’s Kryptonite), and the offense came through in the clutch last week at Utah.

Current line: ISU -2.5 | SP+ projection: K-State by 0.6 | FPI projection: ISU by 1.6

No. 16 Arizona State Sun Devils at Arizona Wildcats (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., Fox)

Since falling at Cincinnati without injured quarterback Sam Leavitt, ASU has ripped off four straight wins. The Sun Devils are ruthlessly physical and efficient on offense, while Arizona’s defense is … not. The Wildcats will have to make some stops to have any chance, but if they do, the offense, with 1,200-yard receiver Tetairoa McMillan, still has upside.

Current line: ASU -8.5 | SP+ projection: ASU by 6.6 | FPI projection: ASU by 8.3

Houston Cougars at No. 19 BYU Cougars (Saturday, 10:15 p.m., ESPN)

Houston’s offense has been awful in Willie Fritz’s first season, but the Cougs’ defense has allowed more than 20 points only twice in seven games. They have an active secondary, and for all of BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff‘s exciting qualities, he can be interception-prone. BYU would be well-served to avoid a rock fight in this one.

Current line: BYU -13 | SP+ projection: BYU by 24.4 | FPI projection: BYU by 17.0

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The FCS playoffs begin

For the next month, Andy Williams’ “It’s the Most Wonderful Time of the Year” will be omnipresent in your life — on commercials, on the radio, in your head at all times. That’s good because it’s FCS playoff time, aka the most wonderful time of the year!

Of Saturday’s eight first-round games, seven are on ESPN+ between noon and 3 p.m., with a nightcap pitting Eddie George’s Tennessee State against last season’s late-night playoff magicians, Montana, at 10:15 p.m. on ESPN2. We’ll craft lengthy previews once we reach the quarterfinals, but for now let’s lay out the odds for the field of 24.

Favorites

• No. 1 Montana State (30.3% to win the title)

• No. 3 South Dakota State (24.7% to win the title)

• No. 2 North Dakota State (18.3% to win the title)

• No. 4 South Dakota (13.2% to win the title)

The top four teams have a combined 87% chance of taking home the title; the hierarchy is pretty clear. But unbeaten Montana State is your overall favorite, not one of the mighty Dakota schools.

Other seeds

• No. 7 Mercer (78.1% to reach quarterfinals, 3.3% to win title)

• No. 6 Incarnate Word (77.6% to reach quarterfinals, 4.1% to win title)

• No. 5 UC Davis (65.1% to reach quarterfinals, 2.0% to win title)

• No. 8 Idaho (54.2% to reach quarterfinals, 0.9% to win title)

UIW ranks fifth in SP+, and while a playoff run will likely require a quarterfinal win over defending champion South Dakota State, quarterback Zach Calzada and a prolific Cardinals offense can turn any game into a track meet.

Primary dark horses

• No. 9 Richmond (33.1% to reach quarterfinals)

• No. 10 Rhode Island (18.2% to reach quarterfinals)

• No. 12 Illinois State (18.1% to reach quarterfinals)

• No. 11 Villanova (17.5% to reach quarterfinals)

• SE Missouri State (16.8% to reach quarterfinals)

• No. 13 Tarleton State (16.3% to reach quarterfinals)

• Lehigh (12.7% to reach quarterfinals)

• Northern Arizona (11.7% to reach quarterfinals)

• No. 14 Montana (9.7% to reach quarterfinals)

• UT Martin (9.1% to reach quarterfinals)

With just four senior starters, Lehigh has fielded its best team in eight years, winning the Patriot League and ranking a solid 28th in SP+. The Mountain Hawks will face Richmond in the first round … and then will play the Spiders again to start the 2025 season as Richmond joins the Patriot.

Happy to be here

• Eastern Kentucky (4.8% to reach quarterfinals)

• No. 16 New Hampshire (3.8% to reach quarterfinals)

• Central Connecticut (3.7% to reach quarterfinals)

• No. 15 Abilene Christian (3.2% to reach quarterfinals)

• Tennessee State (3.0% to reach quarterfinals)

• Drake (0.7% to reach quarterfinals)

Both Tarleton State and Abilene Christian will make their FCS playoff debuts, having each semi-recently transitioned from the Division II ranks. It appears Texas is a pretty good place for football ambition. Who knew?

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Week 14 chaos superfecta

Each week, I use SP+ win probabilities as an attempt to will chaos into existence — I look at four carefully selected games with pretty big point spreads and mash them together into a much more upset-friendly number. Last week, we took down both Ole Miss and Alabama to move to 9-for-13 for the season. I was just hoping to go .500!

Let’s keep the chaos coming. SP+ says there’s only a 52% chance that Ohio State (94% win probability against Michigan), Miami (87% against Syracuse), Tennessee (86% against Vanderbilt) and Notre Dame (74% against USC) all win this weekend. Let’s take down a playoff team.

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Week 14 playlist

Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.

Thursday evening

All times Eastern

Memphis at No. 17 Tulane (7:30, ESPN). The lone Thanksgiving FBS game is enormous. With two more wins and just a bit more Big 12 chaos, Tulane could get into the CFP over the eventual Big 12 champ. But first, the Green Wave have to handle their business against a 9-2 Memphis team that snapped a run of disappointing performances with a proper blowout of UAB two weeks ago.

Current line: Tulane -14 (up from -13) | SP+ projection: Tulane by 6.4 | FPI projection: Tulane by 16.4

Friday

Oklahoma State at No. 25 Colorado (noon, ABC). Last week’s loss to Kansas dropped Colorado into the enormous “still in it, but needs some help” category of the Big 12 race. Any chances Travis Hunter and the Buffaloes have will require them to properly dispose of an OSU team that found life on offense last week behind true freshman quarterback Maealiuaki Smith but hasn’t had life on defense since September.

Current line: Buffs -16.5 | SP+ projection: Buffs by 14.3 | FPI projection: Buffs by 13.1

Miami (Ohio) at Bowling Green (noon, ESPNU). Four teams still have a shot at the MAC championship, but things could play out pretty simply: If Ohio beats Ball State as projected (also at noon Friday), the Bobcats will face the winner of this one. Miami has surged over the past six weeks and boasts a defense as unforgiving as ever, but BGSU is the most well-rounded team in the conference. Star tight end Harold Fannin Jr. will evidently be a game-time decision and he’s an enormous part of BGSU’s offense.

Current line: BGSU -2 | SP+ projection: BGSU by 4.6 | FPI projection: BGSU by 2.9

Liberty at Sam Houston (3:30 p.m., CBSSN). Liberty suffered a lengthy midseason funk, but with a rousing, 17-point win over WKU last week, the Flames once again control their CUSA destiny. But if SHSU pulls an upset, either the Bearkats or WKU (with a win over Jacksonville State at 4 p.m. Saturday) will join Jax State in the CUSA championship.

Current line: Liberty -3 | SP+ projection: Liberty by 8.4 | FPI projection: SHSU by 2.9

Minnesota at Wisconsin (noon, CBS). After a roller-coaster season, Wisconsin stands at 5-6 and needs to beat the hated Gophers to both retain Paul Bunyan’s Axe and secure bowl eligibility. Minnesota has been the better team overall, but the Badgers have still been mostly good at home of late, and Minnesota’s road form has been hit-or-miss.

Current line: Wisconsin -2 | SP+ projection: Minnesota by 2.1 | FPI projection: Wisconsin by 0.1

Nebraska at Iowa (7:30 p.m., NBC). Nebraska is bowl-eligible for the first time since 2016 (!!!) following a strong 44-25 win over Wisconsin. In Dana Holgorsen’s first game calling plays for the Huskers, NU topped 20 points for the first time in six games. Now we’ll see if they can do it against an Iowa defense that is seventh in both defensive SP+ and points allowed per drive.

Current line: Iowa -5.5 (up from -3.5) | SP+ projection: Iowa by 14.5 | FPI projection: Iowa by 9.2

Early Saturday

Michigan at No. 2 Ohio State (noon, Fox). It’s the 55th anniversary of Michigan’s famous, title-denying upset of Ohio State in 1969. The Wolverines are coming off of their best performance of 2024 and have beaten the Buckeyes three straight times. If UM can hang around, the Horseshoe will buzz with “Here we go again” anxiety. But Ohio State has been the best team in the country of late and just beat a better Indiana team by 23 points.

Current line: Buckeyes -21 | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 25.4 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 21.3

UTSA at Army (noon, CBSSN). Army got a rude reality check with last week’s 35-point loss to Notre Dame, but the Black Knights can still keep CFP hopes alive with a win over a 6-5 UTSA team that stunk in September but has averaged 45 points over the past five games. Army’s Bryson Daily vs. UTSA’s rapidly improving Owen McCown is one of the better QB matchups of the week.

Current line: Army -7 (down from -8) | SP+ projection: Army by 13.0 | FPI projection: Army by 14.4

Kansas at Baylor (noon, ESPN2). The two hottest teams in the Big 12 have a combined 0.2% chance of winning the Big 12. Such is life when you start the season 2-4 (BU) and 2-6 (KU). After beating three straight ranked opponents, KU still needs this one to reach bowl eligibility, and the Jayhawks’ improving defense will need to force some mistakes from Baylor’s prodigious young QB Sawyer Robertson.

Current line: Kansas -1.5 (flipped from Baylor -1.5) | SP+ projection: Baylor by 3.5 | FPI projection: Kansas by 0.7

No. 23 Illinois at Northwestern (noon, BTN). Last week’s great escape at Rutgers kept 8-3 Illinois’ hopes of a first 10-win season in 23 years alive. Against teams not named Purdue, Northwestern has lost its past four games by an average of 36-8. A Wildcats win at Wrigley Field would be awfully surprising.

Current line: Illini -7.5 | SP+ projection: Illini by 13.5 | FPI projection: Illini by 8.4

Louisiana at Louisiana-Monroe (noon, ESPNU). With a win, Louisiana can clinch the Sun Belt West, and ULM can clinch bowl eligibility. After losing to South Alabama, UL responded with an explosive 51-30 win over Troy; ULM, meanwhile, ran out of gas a few weeks ago, falling from 5-1 to 5-6. Can the Warhawks conjure up some rivalry magic?

Current line: Cajuns -9.5 | SP+ projection: Cajuns by 22.8 | FPI projection: Cajuns by 11.2

Saturday afternoon

Arkansas at No. 21 Missouri (3:30 p.m., SECN). After averaging just 15.3 points in its first four SEC games, Missouri has hit 30 or more in three straight. That’s good because the defense has allowed 20 or more in four straight. Arkansas remains a volatile underdog, capable of both excellence (upsetting Tennessee) and no-shows (losses to LSU and Ole Miss by a combined 58 points).

Current line: Mizzou -3 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 4.8 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 6.2

Maryland at No. 4 Penn State (3:30 p.m., BTN). We’re used to Maryland slipping after a solid start, but the Terrapins have slipped this time, falling from 3-1 to 4-7 and losing four straight by 14 or more. Penn State will be without right tackle Anthony Donkoh the rest of the way, but the only way this one becomes interesting is if the Nittany Lions, one win from a CFP berth and likely first-round home game, get distracted and/or anxious.

Current line: PSU -25 (up from -24) | SP+ projection: PSU by 30.6 | FPI projection: PSU by 23.1

Saturday evening

Washington at No. 1 Oregon (7:30, NBC). Over the past 26 games, Oregon is 0-2 against Washington and 24-0 against everyone else. The Ducks could wrap up a 12-0 regular season, but UW has an excellent pass defense and an efficient, if sometimes aimless, offense. A “Huskies make early stops, make this one weird and give the home crowd déjà vu anxiety” scenario isn’t totally off the table.

Current line: Oregon -19 | SP+ projection: Oregon by 25.4 | FPI projection: Oregon by 18.3

Nevada at No. 22 UNLV (8, CBSSN). UNLV can clinch a MWC championship bid against Boise State with a rivalry win. Barry Odom’s Rebels needed a second-half surge to put away SJSU, and Nevada has been at its spiciest in big games — the Wolf Pack lost to SMU and Boise State by a total of 12 points. But their offense hasn’t topped 21 points in five games. You’ve got to be prolific to beat UNLV.

Current line: UNLV -17.5 (down from -19) | SP+ projection: UNLV by 26.8 | FPI projection: UNLV by 17.5

Florida at Florida State (7, ESPN2). Billy Napier has pulled off a brilliant coaching job, pulling Florida to 6-5 despite QB injuries and an absurd schedule. In seven straight games as an underdog, the Gators won four. They’ll go from hunter to hunted in Tallahassee, which can be awkward, but has FSU given us any reason to think its A-game is enough to beat a good team, even in a rivalry game?

Current line: Florida -14.5 | SP+ projection: Florida by 12.6 | FPI projection: Florida by 14.0

Oklahoma at LSU (7, ESPN). Fresh off of its best defensive performance in ages against Alabama, Oklahoma is suddenly the happiest 6-5 team in the country; LSU’s offense, meanwhile, has underachieved consistently over the past month. Can the Tigers score enough to exploit OU’s still-limited offense? An OU win would give these teams matching 7-5 records and very different vibes.

Current line: LSU -6 | SP+ projection: LSU by 3.6 | FPI projection: LSU by 3.3

Marshall at James Madison (8, ESPNU). Since blowing a 20-point fourth-quarter lead and falling to Georgia Southern, Marshall has won five straight and could clinch the Sun Belt East with a win. JMU’s trajectory is the exact opposite: Since a 5-1 start, it has underachieved dramatically, and is out of the East race. The Dukes are favored on paper, but trends tell a different tale.

Current line: JMU -3.5 | SP+ projection: JMU by 10.1 | FPI projection: JMU by 5.1

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Smaller-school showcase

We always save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. In addition to FCS playoff madness, here are three more games you should track.

D-II: No. 4 Harding at No. 5 Grand Valley State (1 p.m., ESPN+). Geography always creates massive imbalance in the D-II bracket, and sure enough, Harding, GVSU and No. 2 Ferris State are stuck in the same quarter. Harding, first in SP+, has won 30 of its past 31 games and destroyed Pittsburg State in the first round, but GVSU has the best defense the Bisons have faced.

SP projection: Harding by 7.8.

D-III: No. 11 Endicott at No. 2 Cortland (noon, ESPN+). The playoff draw hasn’t smiled on defending D-III champ Cortland. The Red Dragons not only landed in top-ranked North Central’s quarter, they also have maybe the hardest round-of-32 draw of any major contender. Since a loss to No. 5 Hardin-Simmons, Endicott has won its past six games by an average of 43-7. Beware the upset-minded Gulls!

SP projection: Cortland by 5.5.

NAIA: No. 15 Southwestern (Kansas) at No. 3 Indiana Wesleyan (noon, local streaming). SP+ ranks IWU first in NAIA and Southwestern a solid fourth. The last time IWU played a ranked opponent, the Wildcats hung 77 points and 742 yards on poor Marian University. They have absolute studs at quarterback (Kyle Antoine), running back (Roosevelt Cage) and receiver (Isaac Smith).

SP projection: IWU by 9.7.