Ranking worst mistakes for all 32 NFL teams since 2020
Illustration by ESPN
One move can make or break an NFL team’s season. Where would the Vikings, for example, be right now if they hadn’t signed quarterback Sam Darnold last spring? How are the Eagles feeling about the offseason addition of running back Saquon Barkley? In the big picture, the Chiefs trading up to grab quarterback Patrick Mahomes in the 2017 draft probably made the franchise billions of dollars when factoring in local revenue, extra playoff games, increased exposure and the countless fans who are going to grow up supporting the team because they fell in love with football while watching Mahomes.
Those moves have all worked out well for their respective franchises, but others don’t go quite as well. I’m going to talk about those moves. I’ve gone through the NFL’s 32 franchises and identified the worst decision each has made over the past five years, going back to the start of 2020. Then, I’ve ranked those decisions from least damaging to most damaging.
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These decisions cut in all kinds of different directions. Many of them are additions to the roster, either via free agency, the draft or trades. Some are coaching choices. Tampering violations are even in the running. In each case, I’m evaluating the outcome. If the process was clearly bad at the time, that’s a bonus, but this is measuring the severity of each wrong choice, not why something happened.
There are a few trends that pop up. Players get drafted at low-ceiling positions. Teams overestimate their ability to sign the right player in free agency. Trades for quarterbacks go horribly wrong. Those failures shouldn’t discourage teams from signing free agents or taking big swings on passers, but they do contextualize the risk. Things can go very, very wrong.
Let’s start with the least damaging move of the 32, in Tampa Bay, where the rich seemed to be getting richer, only for injuries to sink a significant free agent signing:
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Biggest mistake: Signing Russell Gage to a three-year, $30 million contract (2022)
The Bucs have won a Super Bowl in this time period and are on track to make their fifth straight playoff appearance. As a result, it’s hard to find too much fault in what general manager Jason Licht & Co. have done. Some moves have worked better than others, but they have been one of the most successful franchises over the past half-decade.
Tampa’s worst move is more a victim of bad circumstance and injury luck than anything else. There’s an argument to be made that the team needed to strengthen positions other than wide receiver when it signed Gage in free agency, although Chris Godwin was coming off a torn ACL and there were questions about whether he would be ready to start Week 1. Gage was pegged to be the third wideout on the roster behind Godwin and Mike Evans, but the Bucs were comfortable spending time in 11 personnel, and the move stole a wideout away from the division-rival Falcons.
Gage never found his footing in Tampa Bay. He averaged just 8.4 yards per catch across 13 games before suffering a scary neck injury in the 2023 playoff loss to the Cowboys. He returned for training camp the following season but he tore a patellar tendon in an August practice and missed the remainder of the season. Gage has bounced around practice squads this season without playing, but the Bucs ended up paying $17 million for 426 receiving yards from him.
31. Green Bay Packers
Biggest mistake: Using first-round picks on Quay Walker and Devonte Wyatt (2022)
General manager Brian Gutekunst has nailed many of the decisions he has made since taking over the Packers in 2018, and even the worst decisions he has made have been more of the mild mistake variety than anything egregious. With a commitment to building through the draft, he has simultaneously constructed the youngest team and a very viable threat to come out of the NFC this season. He’s good.
One of the few missteps Gutekunst has made, though, came on April 28, 2022. The Packers had two first-round picks, having their own and the first-rounder they acquired from the Raiders as part of the Davante Adams deal. Having used five of the team’s previous Day 1 and Day 2 picks on offensive players, it wasn’t a surprise that he wanted to restock the cupboard on defense.
The guys he picked just didn’t hit. Wyatt, the No. 28 pick, has been a part-time player. He had three sacks in the first three games this season, but he hasn’t found that same level of form after an ankle injury he sustained in Week 4. The hope was that Wyatt would develop into a disruptive interior pass rusher, but he has 11 sacks in 44 games in Green Bay.
Walker, the No. 22 pick, has been even more frustrating. The linebacker was ejected twice from games during his rookie season, including when he shoved a Lions physician away from tending to an injured player, handing Detroit a first-and-goal in a game it eventually won to knock the Packers out of the playoffs. He has been inconsistent since, allowing a passer rating just south of 100 each of the past two seasons in coverage without making plays at spectacular rates against the run. Considering the modest surplus value of landing an off-ball linebacker in the first round versus drafting a player at any other position, anything short of a hit is a disappointment. It’s tough to classify Walker as a success, and after leaving Sunday’s win over the Seahawks with an ankle injury, Edgerrin Cooper‘s performance might make it tough for Walker to step back into his old job when he gets healthy.
30. Pittsburgh Steelers
Biggest mistake: Using a first-round pick on Kenny Pickett (2022)
Sometimes, the pieces just come together. With Ben Roethlisberger retiring after the 2021 campaign, the Steelers needed a quarterback. While it wasn’t a great class for signal-callers, the top prospect available just happened to have spent five years down the road at the University of Pittsburgh. Coming off a season with more than 4,300 passing yards and 42 touchdowns, it was no surprise when the Steelers took Pickett.
Any team that drafts a quarterback in Round 1 hopes it has found its guy for the next decade. It didn’t quite go that way in Pittsburgh, where Pickett made 24 starts over two seasons. The Steelers gave up on him after last season, trading him to the Eagles for a swap of third- and fourth-round picks and a pair of seventh-rounders. It’s the most notable in a series of disappointing first-round picks by the organization.
29. Detroit Lions
Biggest mistake: Drafting Jeff Okudah with the No. 3 overall pick (2020)
It’s tough to take fault with too many of the decisions Brad Holmes has made during his excellent run as Lions general manager since 2021, so I have to sneak all the way back to the final season of the Matt Patricia/Bob Quinn era. After a 3-12-1 season in 2019, the Lions were in a position to take a difference-maker at No. 3. While former Patriots coach Bill Belichick typically found his cornerbacks late in the draft or as undrafted free agents, there weren’t many complaints when Detroit took Okudah, who had prototypical size (6-foot-1) and had been a standout at Ohio State.
I’d classify this move more as bad luck than a bad process, but there’s no arguing it didn’t work out. Okudah struggled through injuries and lapses in confidence during his rookie season. With Patricia gone after the 2020 season, new defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn undoubtedly hoped to get the most out of a fellow cornerback, but Okudah ruptured an Achilles in Week 1 of the 2021 season. He came back in 2022 but never emerged as the cover corner the Lions hoped, and he fell out of the starting lineup toward the end of the season. He has bounced around with the Falcons and Texans since.
28. Buffalo Bills
Biggest mistake: Signing Von Miller to a six-year, $120 million contract (2022)
When you remember that the Bills’ 2021 postseason ended with those 13 seconds, it’s easy to understand why they went all-in to add Miller. The future Hall of Famer was coming off a wildly impressive postseason run to a Super Bowl title with the Rams, and Buffalo surely wanted a great pass rusher to put it over the top as it tried to figuratively and literally chase down Patrick Mahomes.
To land Miller, though, the Bills had to fully guarantee two years and most of a third season at the cost of $45 million. That was a big risk for a player who was about to turn 33 and for a roster that was paying Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and Tre’Davious White significant salaries. The Miller deal was a Super Bowl-or-bust move.
Buffalo’s worst nightmare came true when Miller tore an ACL for the second time in his career before the end of his debut season in Buffalo. He racked up eight sacks in 11 games before the injury, but since returning, he has played 22 games and managed four sacks while typically playing about 35% of the defensive snaps. He was also suspended four games for violating the league’s personal conduct policy and will likely be released after this season. General manager Brandon Beane struck out with his big free agent swing.
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27. Washington Commanders
Biggest mistake: Drafting Emmanuel Forbes with the No. 16 pick (2023)
First-round picks aren’t locks to succeed. About 40% of Round 1 selections taken since the league moved to the slotted draft format in 2011 have either been cut before the end of their original deals or failed to earn a fifth-year option, which is far closer to a coin flip than some might expect. The upside of landing a potential difference-maker on a bargain deal for five years is what makes those picks valuable.
Not many first-round picks are cut midway through their second season in the league, though. Some players are released (in part or mostly) because of off-field issues, including former Titans offensive tackle Isaiah Wilson and former Raiders cornerback Damon Arnette, but most teams give their first-round picks at least two years to prove themselves before moving on. Given that first-rounders’ contracts are already guaranteed, the only reason to release a Round 1 pick would be if the organization believes he can’t play and it can’t find a viable trade market to move him.
Forbes is one of those exceptions, as the Commanders turned over their coaching staff and front office between the Ron Rivera regime in 2023 and the Adam Peters/Dan Quinn-led group in 2024. Forbes was benched as a rookie amid inconsistent play. The new regime gave him 32 snaps as a starter in the Week 1 loss to the Buccaneers, but after committing a pass interference penalty in the third quarter, he was benched again and never started another game for Washington.
After 72 more defensive snaps over the next three months, the Commanders cut Forbes in early December. The Rams claimed him on waivers and picked up the remaining $5 million on his contract, which would qualify as a victory for the Commanders from their perspective. It’s difficult to blame Peters & Co. for the prior regime’s mistakes, but fans can only imagine what would have happened if Rivera had chosen differently. The next player off the board in the first round was another cornerback, Patriots star Christian Gonzalez, who should be in the Pro Bowl this season.
26. Philadelphia Eagles
Biggest mistake: Signing James Bradberry to a three-year, $38 million contract (2023)
Few players might qualify as one of their organization’s best and worst moves, but Bradberry is one of the exceptions. A cap casualty by the Giants in 2022 after no team wanted to absorb his contract in a trade, he signed a one-year, $7.3 million deal with the Eagles in May and excelled, earning a second-team All-Pro nod. Although his season ended with a painful holding call that set up the game-winning field goal for the Chiefs, he was easily more valuable than what Philadelphia paid for his services.
A free agent after the season, the Eagles let Bradberry hit the market and briefly flirted with trading away Darius Slay Jr. before bringing both back. Bradberry’s three-year deal didn’t go well. In Year 1, he allowed a 114.3 passer rating in coverage, up nearly 63 points from where he had been in 2022. He was one of the primary culprits as the defense collapsed during the second half of the season.
After general manager Howie Roseman loaded up on cornerbacks in the 2024 draft, the Eagles flirted with moving Bradberry to safety during the summer before the veteran went down with a leg injury. He was expected to miss six to eight weeks, but there’s no timetable for his return, and he’s reportedly moved into a “player-coach role” with the team’s defensive backs. He’s a well-respected veteran and teammate, but the Eagles will end up paying $20 million for one disappointing season.
25. Dallas Cowboys
Biggest mistake: Choosing Michael Gallup over Amari Cooper (2022)
The last time the Cowboys found themselves approaching a salary crunch, they made a distinct choice between two wide receivers. With Gallup about to hit free agency and Cooper coming off an 865-yard season in which he played through injuries, they decided to save money by spreading the more expensive player’s salary throughout the roster.
Initial reports suggested the Cowboys would cut Cooper, but they eventually found a trade partner and sent him to the Browns for a fifth-round pick and a swap of sixth-rounders. The move freed up $20 million, which they used to sign Gallup to a five-year, $62.5 million deal and franchise tag tight end Dalton Schultz, whose one-year deal cost $10.9 million. They spent about as much per year on Gallup and Schultz ($22.4 million) as they would have on Cooper ($20 million).
It didn’t pan out. Schultz struggled with injuries early in 2022 and then left the team after the season to join the Texans. Gallup, coming off of a torn ACL, never returned to his old form. After putting up 843 receiving yards in his final full season before the injury, he totaled 842 receiving yards between 2022 and 2023 before being released. The 28-year-old then retired over the summer.
Cooper, meanwhile, posted back-to-back 1,150-yard seasons for the Browns while catching passes from six different quarterbacks. When the Browns traded Cooper before the midseason deadline this season, they landed a 2025 third-round pick from the Bills in return, meaning they got two prime seasons from Cooper and got a better pick for him than the one they sent to Dallas. The Cowboys have struggled to fill the spot across from CeeDee Lamb since, with a Day 2 pick on Jalen Tolbert and a trade for Brandin Cooks failing to match Cooper’s production.
24. Cincinnati Bengals
Biggest mistake: Signing Trae Waynes to a three-year, $42 million deal (2020)
While Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins were on rookie deals, the Bengals went on a free agent spending spree to add defenders. Some of those moves worked out well, as edge rusher Trey Hendrickson became a star after leaving the Saints. DJ Reader pushed the pocket on the interior. Chidobe Awuzie was a valuable cornerback and even pushed toward an All-Pro level of play before tearing an ACL in 2022. The defense was good enough to shut out the Chiefs in the second half of the 2021 AFC Championship Game and push the Bengals to the Super Bowl.
Cincinnati’s biggest deal, in terms of average salary, was the one that failed most spectacularly. Waynes hadn’t always been Mike Zimmer’s favorite cornerback in Minnesota, but after three years in the starting lineup, the 2015 first-round pick appeared to have established himself as a useful contributor. The Bengals liked what they saw and signed the 27-year-old to a three-year deal in March 2020, which included nearly $31 million in practical guarantees.
Waynes endured a disastrous time in Cincinnati. He missed the entire 2020 season after tearing a pectoral muscle during training camp. Upon his return to the lineup in 2021, he suffered a hamstring injury that pushed him back to injured reserve. The Bengals preferred other options by the time he returned, so the player with the largest hit on their 2021 cap didn’t play a single defensive snap during their run to the Super Bowl. He was released after the season and appears to have retired.
23. New Orleans Saints
Biggest mistake: Handing Cameron Jordan a two-year, $27.9 million extension (2023)
Owing to their active indignance at being forced to operate under the rules of the salary cap, every Saints move in the post-Drew Brees era has to be interpreted through two different lenses. One is the same on-field production view through which every other team operates. The other is within the context of the league’s worst cap situation and the perennial fight the organization wages to put off eating its financial vegetables.
Signing Jordan to an extension was a bit of both. The Saints didn’t need the cap space when they gave him a new deal, but they needed to restructure it after the season. Doing it before the year allowed them to make the 2024 figure more palatable. With the Saints potentially being on the hook for $23.3 million in dead money if he left the team after 2023, general manager Mickey Loomis & Co. wanted to avoid the accounting charges and keep a beloved player.
Most players are not getting multiyear guarantees in their mid-30s for a reason, though, and Jordan is an example of why. After consistently producing solid sack numbers into 2022, he fell off a cliff last season, as an ankle injury plagued him and limited him to two sacks and six knockdowns in 17 games. The hope was that he would return to form in 2024, but he had just one sack and five knockdowns this season before picking up two more in Sunday’s loss to the Commanders. Jordan was unblocked on one and chased down a scrambling Jayden Daniels for the other, moving his season total to three.
Had the Saints had a healthy cap situation, they could have let his deal play out and expire after 2023. Instead, because they needed to get their cap right in previous years, they repeatedly restructured his deal, leaving a potential dead money hit. To avoid that, they gave him a two-year deal with $14 million guaranteed at signing, with virtually all of that coming in 2024. They’ll also owe Jordan $1.5 million more in 2025. When they cut him after this season, they will still owe $24 million in dead money.
22. Kansas City Chiefs
Biggest mistake: Using a first-round pick on Clyde Edwards-Helaire (2020)
Even the greatest players in football history make evaluation mistakes. Before the 2020 draft, Chiefs general manager Brett Veach texted Patrick Mahomes to ask the quarterback who he wanted at the end of the first round. Mahomes’ response was simple: “Clyde.” While I suppose it’s possible he wanted a different Clyde, Veach chose Edwards-Helaire.
At the time, this was seen as a luxury pick for a team stocked everywhere and therefore could justify using a first-round pick on a running back. Edwards-Helaire had been a dynamic receiver for Joe Burrow at LSU, which made him more useful than a typical back. With the Chiefs relying on Damien Williams during their 2019 Super Bowl run, Edwards-Helaire seemed like another playmaker who could excel with Mahomes.
It didn’t quite work out that way. Edwards-Helaire ran for 138 yards in his NFL debut, but after he failed to score on six touches inside the 3-yard line, coach Andy Reid seemed to immediately lose faith in him near the end zone. A critical fumble early in 2021 against the Ravens further shook the Chiefs, while he failed to top 300 receiving yards in any of his pro campaigns. Amid a series of injuries in 2021 and 2022, he lost his starting job to seventh-round pick Isiah Pacheco.
And while it felt like the Chiefs could afford a luxury pick, they missed out on a number of superior options who went at the top of the second round. The next two backs off the board were D’Andre Swift and Jonathan Taylor. Xavier McKinney and Robert Hunt, two of the top free agents in the 2024 class, were taken among the next 10 selections. Pro Bowlers such as Antoine Winfield Jr., Jaylon Johnson and Trevon Diggs weren’t far behind.
The very next player drafted after Edwards-Helaire has tormented the Chiefs personally: Tee Higgins of the Cincinnati Bengals. While wideout didn’t feel like a position of need for the Chiefs at the time, it would become one when the Bengals locked up Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce in the second half of the 2021 AFC Championship Game. Mahomes would have loved the option to throw to Higgins, but the receiver was busy racking up 103 yards for the Bengals instead. Edwards-Helaire spent the rest of his time in Kansas City battling injuries — he also experienced PTSD stemming from a 2018 incident — before he was waived earlier this week.
21. New York Giants
Biggest mistake: Signing Kenny Golladay to a four-year, $72 million contract (2021)
Should this be failing to bring back Saquon Barkley or signingDaniel Jones to a massive extension? Maybe. Barkley has been brilliant for the Eagles this season, but he had a significant injury history and wasn’t going to push a rebuilding Giants team into contention. Plus, rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. has done a credible job as his replacement. The decision to franchise Jones was an obvious mistake at the time, but he was coming off a successful season, which meant New York had a case to do it.
Everything about the Golladay contract, though, was a fiasco. The former Lions wideout had missed most of the 2020 season due to hamstring and hip injuries. A remarkably cold wide receiver market left just about everybody else settling for short-term or modest deals, suggesting that he would follow. Instead, former general manager Dave Gettleman signed him to a deal with $40 million in practical guarantees over the first two seasons. It was a contract that showed no regard for the dynamics of what was going on during the 2021 offseason.
Golladay scored one touchdown in his 26 games with the Giants, and it came in garbage time during his final game. The 2019 Pro Bowl selection averaged 23.2 receiving yards per game and 1.1 yards per route run, which ranked 80th out of the 88 wide receivers who ran at least 500 routes over that time frame. Golladay was cut after the 2022 season and hasn’t surfaced since.
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20. Baltimore Ravens
Biggest mistake: Signing Odell Beckham Jr. to a one-year, $15 million contract (2023)
There aren’t many transactions that lead to widespread confusion in text chains around the NFL, and the ones that do almost never involve the Ravens. Few people were surprised after Beckham signed with Baltimore, and when the deal was reported as $15 million, most assumed it included a small guarantee and significant incentives. Business as usual for Baltimore.
When it became clear that virtually all of the contract was guaranteed, though, the texts started flying. Beckham hadn’t produced a 1,000-yard season since 2019, and while he played good football during the Rams’ run to Super Bowl LVI, the torn ACL he suffered during that game cost him all of the 2022 season. It felt like an aggressive move for a player on the wrong side of 30, especially before the team signed Lamar Jackson to his contract extension.
Beckham ended up having a pedestrian season, catching 35 passes for 565 yards and three scores. The Ravens tried using him as a full-time starter, but after an ankle injury in Week 2, he played about half of the offensive snaps the rest of the way. He had four catches for 34 yards in two postseason games before he left in free agency. He’s now a free agent again after being released by the Dolphins.
19. Indianapolis Colts
Biggest mistake: Trading first- and third-round picks to the Eagles for Carson Wentz (2021)
In one of what feels like an endless string of attempts to replace Andrew Luck, the Colts felt like they were landing their long-term solution under center when they traded a third-round pick in 2021 and a conditional pick in 2022 to the Eagles for Wentz. While he had struggled badly and lost his job in Philadelphia the prior season, the 2016 second overall pick was still only 29 and a year removed from being a building block for the Eagles. It was easy to chalk up Wentz’s sudden struggles to some combination of an injury-hit offensive line, bad interception luck and a breakdown in his relationship with coach Doug Pederson.
Wentz’s numbers were better in 2021, as his QBR jumped by nearly 20 points, but the Colts weren’t happy with the results. He faded badly down the stretch, missing practice time while being put on the reserve/COVID-19 list. A victory in either of Indy’s final two games would have pushed it into the playoffs, but Wentz could only muster 333 passing yards in a pair of losses. The Colts decided to move on from Wentz after the season, trading him to the Commanders for two third-round picks.
18. Los Angeles Chargers
Biggest mistake: Signing J.C. Jackson to a five-year, $82.5 million contract (2022)
With coach Brandon Staley rebuilding the defense to his liking in Los Angeles, Jackson was supposed to be the chess piece that unlocked the playbook. The cornerback’s ability to play man coverage against top receivers in New England made the 2018 undrafted free agent a “must have” for Staley and general manager Tom Telesco, who were convinced enough by four years of scouting Jackson to give him one of the largest defensive back contracts in league history.
Jackson never seemed to fit in Los Angeles. An ankle injury hampered him during his first preseason. Back on the field, Staley benched Jackson in the middle of what was just his fourth game for the team for subpar play. The following week, he tore his patellar tendon, ending his season.
While Jackson returned for the start of 2023, he was scratched from the lineup after two games and then traded to the Patriots, where he reunited with Bill Belichick. The total bill saw the Chargers pay $38.5 million for seven games. Telesco reportedly apologized to the defensive backs room after the deal for making a mistake in signing Jackson. He finished his run in Los Angeles with more benchings (two) than interceptions (one).
17. Minnesota Vikings
Biggest mistake: Failing to land any useful players on Days 1 and 2 of the draft (2022)
It’s too early to judge the major investments general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah made in quarterback J.J. McCarthy and edge rusher Dallas Turner atop the 2024 draft, but it’s fair to say he didn’t fare well in his debut draft. Though he has done excellent work in free agency and found a talented wideout (Jordan Addison) in the first round of the 2023 draft, it’s difficult to get less than what the Vikings landed out of their top picks in 2022.
Adofo-Mensah made a pair of trades within the NFC North, moving down in deals that landed the Lions’ Jameson Williams and the Packers’ Christian Watson. I won’t take issue with those trades, given what advanced draft charts suggest about the moves — and it shouldn’t matter which prospect those teams select in justifying the deal for Adofo-Mensah — but he has to nail some of his picks if he’s going to make any draft philosophy work.
The Vikings went 0-for-4. Their first pick, safety Lewis Cine, played just two defensive snaps in four games before suffering a career-altering leg injury on special teams. He should be applauded for making it back to the league, but he played just eight more defensive snaps for the Vikings before joining the Bills, where he made his debut on special teams last week.
Maybe that pick could be chalked up to bad luck, but the next one was second-round corner Andrew Booth Jr., who spent most of the year on the bench before tearing his meniscus. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores didn’t seem to value Booth, who was traded to the Cowboys after his second season. Fellow second-rounder Ed Ingram started for two-plus years at guard, but he was a consistent liability on the line before being benched last month. And Brian Asamoah, the team’s third-round pick, has played just 188 defensive snaps over three seasons, including 33 this season. That’s four top-70 picks and one player who even had a shot at starting duties over the past three seasons, and even he was one of the worst regulars at his position. Thankfully, Adofo-Mensah has made enough smart decisions elsewhere to overcome a rough start during his time in charge in Minnesota.
16. Miami Dolphins
Biggest mistake: Tampering with Tom Brady and Sean Payton (2019-22)
There are some grey areas the NFL seems willing to tolerate when it comes to its rulebook. It’s remarkable to see how many free agent contracts teams are somehow able to negotiate in the opening hours of the league’s “legal tampering period,” a phrase which doesn’t make sense in any other context. Teams might have conversations with agents about whether their players are happy in their current location or if they would be interested in a potential trade.
Attempting to make offers to players and coaches who are under contract to other teams, however, crosses the line for the NFL. Dolphins ownership, according to the NFL sanctions, repeatedly tried to negotiate deals with Brady while he was under contract to the Patriots and Buccaneers and simultaneously tried to negotiate a deal to get Payton to join the organization as its coach.
Sometimes, when these deals are completed and there’s a subsequent grievance, teams are able to hammer out a deal. The Jets, for example, got a first-round pick from the Patriots as the primary return for Bill Belichick when he resigned as the coach in New York. But the Dolphins didn’t even land Brady or Payton, were fined $2 million and stripped of first- and third-round picks in the 2023 and 2024 drafts, respectively.
15. Arizona Cardinals
Biggest mistake: Signing Kliff Kingsbury and Steve Keim to contract extensions (2022)
Between the two, Keim’s new deal seemed more curious than that of his head coach. Though the Cardinals were coming off an 11-6 season and a playoff berth, Keim’s recent track record in the draft had already looked abysmal. He had whiffed on his first-rounders in 2016 (Robert Nkemdiche), 2017 (Haason Reddick), 2018 (Josh Rosen) and 2020 (Isaiah Simmons). Reddick had spent years playing out of position before excelling in his final season as an edge rusher, but the team lost him in free agency. His only first-round pick who became a success was Kyler Murray, who was drafted in 2019 to replace Rosen after one season. Kingsbury, likewise, was hired to replace Steve Wilks, who was a one-and-done coach in 2018.
The Cardinals went 4-13 in 2022. One year after ownership thought the coach and general manager deserved extensions into 2027, one bad season was enough to lead to a total overhaul. The Cardinals fired Kingsbury, while Keim left the team to focus on his health. They gave lengthy extensions to a coach with one winning season and a general manager who already had a questionable track record of recent drafts even before a disaster season, then paid tens of millions of dollars for their deals.
14. Las Vegas Raiders
Biggest mistake: Hiring Josh McDaniels as coach (2022)
The Raiders should have known better. McDaniels had been fired midway through his second season with the Broncos in 2010, then left the Colts at the altar in 2018 after agreeing to join the organization and even hiring coaches for his staff. Despite the fact that the Raiders’ players wanted to keep interim coach Rich Bisaccia, who was elevated to that position after Jon Gruden resigned, for the permanent job after a late-season surge in 2021 produced a surprising trip to the postseason, team owner Mark Davis let Bisaccia leave and hired McDaniels and fellow Patriots executive Dave Ziegler to run the organization.
A spectacular failure followed. McDaniels failed to self-scout and recognize that the Raiders were paper tigers, leading to a foolish trade of draft capital for wideout Davante Adams. The team gave quarterback Derek Carr a fake extension and then embarrassingly cut ties with the longtime starter at the end of McDaniels’ first season at the helm, which included a fateful loss to Baker Mayfield just days after he joined the Rams. Las Vegas extended Hunter Renfrow, who was coming off a breakout season, and then immediately marginalized him in the offense.
McDaniels’ solution invariably seemed to be adding Patriots to the team, as the Raiders imported Chandler Jones, Jimmy Garoppolo, Brian Hoyer, Jakobi Meyers and Brandon Bolden with limited success. Davis, who was quickly tired of the organization’s decision-making, fired both McDaniels and Ziegler after just 25 games at the helm. As far as I can tell, McDaniels is the only NFL head coach to ever be fired twice from two permanent jobs before completing a second season in either role.
13. Los Angeles Rams
Biggest mistake: Signing Allen Robinson to a three-year, $46.5 million contract (2022)
General manager Les Snead has gotten a lot of things right over the past five seasons, but two free agent signings have gone spectacularly wrong. One was signing Jonah Jackson this offseason. Their plan for the former Lions guard fell quickly by the wayside because of injuries and Steve Avila‘s struggles to land comfortably at center. Jackson signed for a larger average annual salary than Saquon Barkley and Xavier McKinney this offseason, but he has been unused in each of the past five games. There’s a chance his Rams career might be over after being paid $25 million for three games.
Until that happens, the Robinson deal has to be an even messier acquisition. After the Rams missed out on signing Von Miller, their Plan B became adding a wide receiver to replace Odell Beckham Jr. and Robert Woods. Robinson was reportedly about to sign with the Eagles, only to abandon them for a deal with L.A. Philadelphia instead had to settle for A.J. Brown.
Robinson was coming off a curiously anonymous season in Chicago, where he had 410 receiving yards in 12 games. The hope for L.A. was that an upgrade at quarterback and a more competitive situation would unlock him. Instead, Robinson somehow got worse. In his lone season with the Rams, he caught 33 passes for 339 yards in 10 games. He averaged just under 1.0 yard per route run, which ranked 96th out of the 104 receivers who ran at least 200 routes that season.
Even worse, the Rams were on the hook for a significant salary in 2023. To get out of the contract, they ate $10.8 million of his 2023 salary as part of a deal with the Steelers that netted L.A. a swap of seventh-round picks. The Rams ended up paying nearly $26 million for those 33 receptions. Can’t win them all.
12. Seattle Seahawks
Biggest mistake: Trading two first-round picks for Jamal Adams (2020)
In the hopes of building a Super Bowl contender around Russell Wilson and revitalizing a defense that had gone stale, coach Pete Carroll and general manager John Schneider shipped a pair of first-round picks for a young star in his prime. With Adams seemingly at odds with Jets management, the Seahawks pounced on a potential star by sending three picks to New York for Adams and a fourth-round pick.
It was tough to believe Adams could provide outsized value at safety given his skill set. In Year 1, though, he had a whopping 9.5 sacks and was named a second-team All-Pro, albeit with middling coverage numbers. He also missed four games because of a groin injury.
The injuries, sadly, began to pile up for Adams after that. He played through a shoulder injury at the end of 2020 but then missed the final five games of 2021 due to a torn labrum. He then tore his quad muscle 15 snaps into the 2022 season, ending his year after one game. In 2023, he missed time because of knee issues before being cut after the season. He failed to record a sack after that 9.5-sack campaign in 2020.
The picks the Seahawks sent to New York turned into standout players. The Jets’ 2021 first-rounder Christian Darrisaw became an excellent left tackle for the Vikings. (The Jets used their pick to trade up for guard Alijah Vera-Tucker, who has battled injury issues in New York.) Seattle’s 2022 selection became the No. 10 overall pick, which the Jets used on star wideout Garrett Wilson. Much of the pain of the Adams deal, of course, was mitigated by the success of Seattle’s trade that sent Wilson to Denver.
11. Chicago Bears
Biggest mistake: Trading a second-round pick for Chase Claypool (2022)
Bears general manager Ryan Poles wanted a playmaker for struggling quarterback Justin Fields. Makes sense. The price he paid? The player he targeted? Less so. At the 2022 deadline, a desperate Poles sent a second-rounder to the Steelers to acquire Claypool, who had fallen out of favor in Pittsburgh. At the time, Bears fans seemed to justify the deal by saying there was no way the organization would find a better receiver in free agency. In the best-case scenario, Chicago was sending a useful pick to Pittsburgh for the right to pay Claypool a market-value deal.
The Bears got something close to the worst-case scenario instead. They didn’t sign Claypool to that deal, and they got virtually nothing from him. He had 18 catches for 191 yards over 10 games in Chicago and put some embarrassing blocking attempts on tape before the team cut bait and dealt him to the Dolphins for a swap of late-round picks. The mistake was compounded by the fact the Bears kept losing after the deal and shipped the top pick in the second round to the Steelers, who used it to select superstar cornerback Joey Porter Jr.
Though it hasn’t been anywhere near as bad, Poles then made a similar decision in 2023 by trading another second-round pick to the Commanders for Montez Sweat before signing the edge rusher to a four-year, $98 million deal. Sweat is a good player, but he has 4.5 sacks and nine knockdowns this season, while free agent signings Jonathan Greenard, Danielle Hunter and Andrew Van Ginkel have been far more productive elsewhere. The Bears needed an edge rusher, but the second-rounder they sent to ensure they would land one has turned into another valuable cornerback on a rookie deal, as the Eagles eventually landed the pick and used it to select Cooper DeJean.
10. Tennessee Titans
Biggest mistake: Swapping out A.J. Brown for Treylon Burks in a trade with the Eagles (2022)
Making mistakes at quarterback can get a general manager fired. It happens less often at wide receiver, but the choices former Tennessee GM Jon Robinson made in 2022 might have been what ended his run that December. First, the Titans didn’t seem to show much interest in extending Brown’s contract, with the wideout suggesting the offer from the organization ranged between $16 million and $20 million per year. On Day 1 of the draft in April, the Titans traded Brown to the Eagles, who gave him a four-year, $100 million contract as part of the deal.
Brown has been such a hit in Philly that the Eagles signed him to a three-year, $96 million extension this past April. The Titans used the first-round pick they got from the Eagles to draft Brown’s replacement in Burks, whose size and physicality drew pre-draft comparisons to Brown. That hasn’t played out in reality, as injuries and inconsistent play have limited Burks to 699 receiving yards over the past two-plus seasons in Nashville. Brown? Just the 3,898 receiving yards for him.
9. New England Patriots
Biggest mistake: Hiring Matt Patricia and Joe Judge as the lead architects for the offense (2022)
If this stretched back to 2019, I could include New England drafting N’Keal Harry before DK Metcalf or paying Antonio Brown $10.5 million for one game. Instead, let’s go back to what might have been the point of no return for Bill Belichick in New England. After losing longtime coordinator Josh McDaniels to the head coaching job in Las Vegas, Belichick had an opening at offensive coordinator. With a staff full of people he had either coached, coached alongside or fathered, the list of potential candidates to replace McDaniels didn’t fall far from the tree.
Adam Schefter explains to Pat McAfee the Patriots’ thinking in wanting to keep Jerod Mayo past this season.
While the Patriots technically never hired an offensive coordinator, Belichick handed over control of the offense to two former NFL head coaches who had made their names coordinating other elements of the roster. Patricia had served as Patriots defensive coordinator before an ill-fated stint with the Lions, while Judge had run the special teams in New England before being hired as the coach of the Giants. Patricia was on staff as an adviser, while Judge returned after being fired in New York.
Coming off a playoff appearance in Mac Jones‘ rookie season, the offense quickly proved to be a disaster. The team shifted to a zone-heavy rushing attack as the rest of the league was abandoning it for more modern, diverse approaches. Jones looked like he didn’t have answers on offense and took to visibly and audibly expressing his frustration with the staff and the scheme before a season-altering ankle injury. The Patriots dropped from sixth to 17th in scoring offense, and they haven’t gotten back on track since. Belichick has rightfully been lauded as a genius for thinking outside the box, but this decision backfired.
8. Atlanta Falcons
Biggest mistake: Signing Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract (2024)
No need for a reminder about this one, given that the Falcons just benched Cousins on Tuesday. The veteran quarterback started his brief Atlanta career unable to move well enough to hand off the football as he returned from a torn Achilles suffered last October. Throughout the season, the Falcons basically kept him as still as possible, running the league’s lowest play-action and out-of-pocket pass rates. After a stretch with one touchdown pass and nine interceptions over the past five games, coach Raheem Morris decided to cut bait and replace the 36-year-old starter with rookie first-round pick Michael Penix Jr.
The logic of signing Cousins to a significant deal and then using a first-round pick on Penix always seemed flimsy, but it’s only getting worse. Unless the Falcons can find a trade partner for Cousins this offseason, they’ll likely cut him to avoid triggering a $10 million bonus for 2026, which guarantees in March 2025. For 14 starts from a player whose QBR ranks 22nd in the league, they will end up paying $85 million, minus any potential offset if he signs for the minimum somewhere else next offseason.
7. Houston Texans
Biggest mistake: TradingDeAndre Hopkins to the Cardinals (2020)
We’ve seen what great wide receivers can fetch in their primes. In the case of the trades of Davante Adams, A.J. Brown, Stefon Diggs and Tyreek Hill, each team landed at least one first-round pick for its star wide receiver. (I’m referring to the trades that sent Adams to the Raiders and Diggs to the Bills here, not their subsequent moves.) We can argue if those deals have worked out well for every franchise involved, but the price tag for a top wide receiver is clear. It starts with a Round 1 selection.
The Texans didn’t land a first-rounder when they sent Hopkins to the Cardinals. They picked up a second-rounder and even swapped fourth-rounders with Arizona. That second-rounder, the No. 40 selection, was used on defensive tackle Ross Blacklock, who lasted two years with the organization. Even worse, they added a player on an underwater contract in running back David Johnson, who made more than $16 million while running for 919 yards over two seasons in Houston.
It’s clear that both Hopkins and the Texans were ready to part ways. And when the Cardinals were ready to deal him after three seasons, they couldn’t find any takers and cut him in May 2023. All of that can be true. The Texans simply had to find a better offer than this to justify trading away a 28-year-old player coming off three consecutive first-team All-Pro appearances.
6. Jacksonville Jaguars
Biggest mistake: Hiring Urban Meyer as coach (2021)
There are so many moments from the Meyer era that could be considered embarrassing decisions and situations in their own right. The Chris Doyle hire. Signing Tim Tebow to play tight end. Abandoning the team plane so he could go to his bar in Ohio, at which point he was filmed in close contact with someone who wasn’t his wife. An impossibly awkward handshake with Mike Vrabel. Talking about the expanded role on defense for a player who had been on the field for zero snaps. His reported unfamiliarity with Aaron Donald and Deebo Samuel. Oh, and allegedly kicking his own kicker, which finally led to the Jaguars firing him.
Meyer went 2-11, wasted a year of Trevor Lawrence‘s rookie contract and set the franchise back well beyond where it was when he arrived. It’s a small miracle coach Doug Pederson took over and got the Jags to the playoffs the following season at 9-8. While Jags fans are understandably frustrated with what has happened since, even the lowlights of the Pederson era feel like Vince Lombardi in comparison to Meyer’s abbreviated run.
5. Carolina Panthers
Biggest mistake: Trading DJ Moore and multiple first-round picks to the Bears to move up to draft Bryce Young with the No. 1 overall pick (2023)
Frankly, this could be even worse. Caleb Williams hasn’t been the instant success many projected in Chicago, although it seems clear that a lot of the blame for his struggles is being pinned on a mostly deposed coaching staff. Young has turned around his career after being benched earlier this season and ranks 19th in QBR over the past month. NFL teams likely would still take Williams over Young given their respective levels of play and the extra year of cost control Williams has remaining on his deal, but this doesn’t look generationally bad in the way it might have in September.
It hasn’t been anything close to good for the Panthers, though. The 2023 pick they traded to the Bears eventually turned into Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter, who has been outstanding in recent weeks while making a late All-Pro push. Moore has run hot and cold in Chicago, but the Panthers have been desperate to add help at receiver since trading him, using two top-40 picks at wide receiver while acquiring a handful of veterans in free agency and trades. None of the moves has clearly paid off. If Young pans out, this deal still would be disappointing for Carolina. And if he doesn’t, well, it’s a nightmare.
4. San Francisco 49ers
Biggest mistake: Trading three first-round picks to move up for Trey Lance (2021)
49ers fans probably aren’t surprised. I’ve repeatedly written in defense of the 49ers taking a big swing on Lance’s upside given their roster construction and the limitations, injury history and contract afforded Jimmy Garoppolo. The 49ers have enjoyed the benefits of having an excellent quarterback on a rookie deal over the past few seasons, but it has been through seventh-round pick Brock Purdy, not Lance.
Whatever logic there might have been in making the move, there’s no way to treat it as anything but a failure after the fact. The 49ers gave up three first-round picks to move up to No. 3 in the 2021 draft; their selection eventually went to the Cowboys and became Micah Parsons. The Dolphins used the picks the 49ers sent as part of swaps that added Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill and Bradley Chubb to their roster. The missing cost-controlled talent San Francisco lost as part of the Lance and Christian McCaffrey deals turned into meaningful roles for Logan Ryan and Oren Burks in Super Bowl LVIII and Isaac Yiadom and De’Vondre Campbell this season. It will only hurt more as Purdy earns a massive raise this offseason.
Compared with the moves ahead of Lance on this list, though, salary alone makes this a less painful deal. The 49ers paid Lance only $27.3 million for his two-plus seasons. That’s too much, but it’s way less than the teams ahead of them on this list shelled out for their quarterbacks in similarly sized swaps.
3. New York Jets
Biggest mistake:Trading for Aaron Rodgers (2023)
This could just as easily be drafting Zach Wilson ahead of Ja’Marr Chase, Penei Sewell, Pat Surtain, DeVonta Smith and Micah Parsons in the top 12 of the 2021 draft. There are also other failed Jets free agent signings and nearly inexplicable trades to consider.
The Rodgers trade stands head and shoulders above the rest because it came with so much baggage. Trading for him made the Jets hire Nathaniel Hackett as offensive coordinator. It led them to sign Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard as free agents and bring on Tim Boyle as a backup quarterback. The trade for Davante Adams wouldn’t have happened if the Jets weren’t doing whatever they could to try to kick-start a moribund offense with Rodgers’ old friend from Green Bay.
On top of that, the Jets moved down two spots in the first round of the 2023 draft and sent a pair of second-round picks to the Packers to acquire Rodgers, only avoiding shipping off a first-round pick because Rodgers suffered a torn Achilles four snaps into his debut season in New York. He also took a pay cut of nearly $34 million after the trade, a move which might count as the best thing he did for the organization.
The Jets gave up two Day 2 picks and paid $75 million for a quarterback who missed almost all of his first season with the team before posting a 53.9 QBR in his second season, a mark that ranks 22nd among all quarterbacks. Fans of this franchise might not have seen this coming, but Rodgers ranked 26th in his final season with the Packers and the idea he was anything short of a major risk was always short-sighted. No one could have anticipated just how poorly this trade would go, but the Jets have a worse winning percentage with Rodgers (.333) than they did with Wilson (.364) as the starter.
2. Denver Broncos
Biggest mistake:Trading for (and extending) Russell Wilson (2022)
I liked the decision to trade for Wilson at the time, but you don’t need me to explain how it panned out. The Broncos sent two first-round picks, two second-round picks and three players to the Seahawks in the deal. The two first-rounders alone turned into cornerstones in left tackle Charles Cross and cornerback Devon Witherspoon. Derick Hall and Boye Mafe, the two second-rounders, have flashed up front on defense.
On top of that, the Broncos gave Wilson a massive extension after completing the deal. They ended up paying about $123 million for two years with Wilson under center, moving on after last season to avoid triggering another $37 million in guarantees for the 2025 campaign. He wasn’t terrible during his time with the Broncos, but he also didn’t look nearly as dynamic or creative as he was in Seattle. The Broncos are now quite happy with rookie passer Bo Nix, and Wilson has found a new home in Pittsburgh.
Tyler Fulghum breaks down his reasons for taking the under for the Broncos’ matchup vs. the Chargers.
1. Cleveland Browns
Biggest mistake: Trading for Deshaun Watson and signing him to a five-year, $230 million contract (2022)
What else could it be? In addition to the decision to build the franchise around a player who had been accused of more than 20 cases of sexual assault and inappropriate conduct, the Browns paid a spectacular premium to acquire the quarterback from the Texans. After Watson’s camp initially removed the Browns from the running, Cleveland responded by giving Watson a fully guaranteed deal worth $230 million, which included financial protections if he were to be suspended by the league, as he would be for a large part of the 2022 campaign.
The Browns also sent three first-round picks to the Texans as the bulk of the package to acquire Watson, with Houston using those selections to move around the draft and revitalize its organization. By my estimate, Cleveland spent more than $300 million between cash and draft capital to acquire him. It also let go of Baker Mayfield, who has been a competent starter at a fraction of that cost for the Buccaneers since the start of last season.
In return, the Browns landed a quarterback who ranked last in QBR across his 19 starts with them. Watson was overseeing one of the worst offenses in league history this season before tearing his Achilles in October. The team is still on the hook for more than $90 million in guaranteed money after this season. It’s difficult to imagine how a trade could go any worse than this deal has for Cleveland.
