It’s time to put a bow on ESPN’s annual breakdown of the top prospects in baseball with a look back at the No. 1 prospects over the past decade. In this year’s ranking of the Top 100 prospects, Kiley McDaniel put 23-year-old right-hander Roki Sasaki at No. 1, over outfielder Roman Anthony. It’s the first time a pitcher has topped ESPN’s list, although Sasaki isn’t a traditional prospect given his experience in Japan.

How does he compare to the past top overall prospects? We’re going to rank them from Nos. 1 to 10 and see if they have lived up to the hype. Kiley has ranked the prospects for ESPN since 2020, with Keith Law doing it the years before that. For this exercise, we’re actually going to go back to 2014 in order to rank 10 players. Wander Franco was twice the No. 1 prospect during that span, and we won’t be including him since he remains on baseball’s restricted list.

Let’s dive right into the rankings.

Top 100 | 101-200 | System rankings | Team top 10s | Predictions

1. Gunnar Henderson, SS, Baltimore Orioles (2023)

Current team: Orioles
Career WAR: 16.2 | WAR per 162 games: 7.7

Peak moment: Henderson hit .288 with 28 home runs through the first three months of the 2024 season, landing a starting spot in the All-Star Game. While he tailed off in the second half, he still finished fourth in a stacked American League MVP race after hitting .281 with 37 home runs and 9.1 WAR on the season — the third-highest single-season WAR for an Orioles position player. All at the age of 23.

Current status: Henderson and Bobby Witt Jr. will battle for All-Star starts and MVP awards for the foreseeable future. It’s a debate that will remind fans of the Alex Rodriguez/Derek Jeter/Nomar Garciaparra arguments of the late 1990s.

I’ll admit, this is an aggressive ranking — but it feels warranted considering the start to Henderson’s career, with top-10 MVP finishes his first two full seasons. He was a second-round pick out of high school in 2019, but the tools all played up a grade or two higher when minor league play resumed in 2021 after the missing COVID season of 2020. He has been even better at shortstop than expected (there was some belief he might end up at third base) and he’s going to be a superstar for the next decade — assuming he stays healthy, which, as you’ll see, has been a worrying issue for several players on this list.

2. Ronald Acuna Jr., RF, Atlanta Braves (2018)

Current team: Braves
Career WAR: 25.8 | WAR/162: 5.8

Peak moment: Acuña had one of the most breathtaking stat lines in history in 2023 when he hit 41 home runs and stole 73 bases on his way to unanimous National League MVP honors. Shohei Ohtani kind of stole his statistical thunder with his 50/50 season in 2024, but Acuña remains the sole proprietor of the 40/70 club.

Current status: Acuña got off to a slow start in 2024 and then suffered a season-ending ACL tear in his left knee in late May — after tearing his right ACL in 2021. He could miss the start of the season as he completes his recovery.

Acuña got the top ranking on our 2018 Top 100 prospects list over Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Fernando Tatis Jr. (some outlets considered Ohtani that year, but ESPN did not) after a 2017 minor league season in which Acuña hit .325 with 21 home runs and 44 steals across three levels. He reached the majors a few months after his 20th birthday in 2018 and was an immediate sensation with his power/speed combo.

There’s no denying Acuña’s ability — when he’s playing. Not counting the COVID-shortened 2020 season or 2024, Acuna has still averaged just 113 games per year. We also don’t know what kind of player he’ll be moving forward. Bad knees are the kind of recurring problem that can affect a player the rest of his career. Despite his 73 steals in 2023, Acuña’s top speed dropped from the 97th percentile pre-injury in 2021 to the 67th percentile, so with a second knee injury, it’s possible those big base stealing days are over. His .337 batting average that fueled his MVP numbers that season also stands out as a career outlier thanks to a remarkably low 11.4% strikeout rate that jumped back up his recent norms of 23.9% in 2024. Still, we’re ranking him second, betting on him being just 27 years old with power few players can match.

3. Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers (2016)

Current team: Texas Rangers
Career WAR: 36.8 | WAR/162: 5.8

Peak moment: His game-tying two-run home run in the bottom of the ninth inning of Game 1 of the 2023 World Series, a game the Rangers would win in 11 innings on their way to the franchise’s only World Series title. Seager would win World Series MVP honors for the second time, after earning it with the Dodgers in 2020.

Current status: Seager has reeled off three straight 30-homer seasons since signing with the Rangers in 2022 and has 11.9 WAR over the past two seasons despite averaging just 121 games. He already has 10 seasons in the majors and doesn’t turn 31 until April. He remains one of the most dangerous hitters in the majors.

Seager had played so well in a September call-up with the Dodgers in 2015 — .337/.425/.561 in 27 games — that he was an easy call as the top prospect entering the 2016 season over Byron Buxton. He immediately lived up to the hype, hitting .308 with 26 home runs, winning Rookie of the Year honors and finishing third in the MVP vote. His biggest issue has been injuries: Seager had Tommy John surgery in 2018 and missed most of the season, fractured his hand in 2021 and then suffered various ailments the past two seasons, including two separate surgeries for a sports hernia.

Maybe the biggest surprise is that Seager has remained at shortstop. Even when earning the No. 1 prospect ranking, the speculation was he might have to move to third base sooner rather than later. While Seager is now one of the slowest infielders in the majors — ninth percentile in speed in 2024 — his defensive metrics remain strong (89th percentile in outs above average and plus-5 defensive runs saved).

4. Fernando Tatis Jr., RF, San Diego Padres (2019)

Current team: Padres
Career WAR: 21.7 | WAR/162: 6.8

Peak moment: A two-homer, five-RBI outing in Game 2 of the wild-card series in 2020 — a game the Padres had to win. That was Tatis at the height of his “face of baseball” status, the dynamic sensation we saw from 2019 through 2021 who hit .292/.369/.596 and led the NL with 42 home runs in 2021 while making highlight-of-the-day plays in the field.

Current status: Then came the fall: The offseason motorcycle accident and PED suspension that cost him the entire 2022 season. He moved to right field in 2023 and had a 5.5-WAR season, but a stress fracture in his leg limited him to 102 games and 2.5 WAR in 2024. While he had a .965 OPS pre-suspension, it has been .796 the past two seasons. That said, he’s still just 26 years old.

Tatis got the nod over Guerrero, who was the consensus top prospect that season, in our 2019 Top 100. Both reached the majors that season at age 20 — Tatis on Opening Day, Guerrero a month later — and, as the sons of major league fathers with their same names, have sort of been linked together ever since. Whom would you rather have? Despite Tatis missing an entire season, their career WARs are essentially identical: Tatis at 21.7, Guerrero at 21.5. Guerrero was much more valuable in 2024, but Tatis is more athletic and has more defensive value. It feels like a coin flip, with Guerrero’s durability perhaps the deciding factor.

5. Adley Rutschman, C, Baltimore Orioles (2022)

Current team: Orioles
Career WAR: 13.1 | WAR/162: 5.1

Peak moment: Rutschman went 5-for-5 with a walk, home run and four RBIs in a 10-9 win on Opening Day in 2023 — kick-starting the Orioles en route to a remarkable 101-win season just two years after losing 110 games.

Current status: Rutschman is tied with J.T. Realmuto for the most WAR among catchers since his rookie season in 2022, but he’ll have to rebound from a poor second half in 2024 that saw him hit .194/.278/.276 over the final three months.

The only No. 1 draft pick on this list, Rutschman was selected by the Orioles out of Oregon State in 2019 — over Witt. He retained top prospect status over Witt entering the 2022 season as he looked like a switch-hitting Buster Posey. While you would certainly take Witt at this point, Rutschman has been excellent. Don’t read too much into the slide in the second half of 2024 as it seems he was playing through some injury issues. Of some concern, his walk rate did drop from over 13% his first two seasons to 9.1%, so that’s worth watching as his offensive value is tied more to a high OBP than big power numbers.

6. Kris Bryant, 3B/OF, Chicago Cubs (2015)

Current team: Colorado Rockies
Career WAR: 27.5 | WAR/162: 4.3

Peak moment: Game 7 of the 2016 World Series. Not only did Bryant field the final ground ball to give the Cubs their long-awaited championship, but he had an amazing game. In the third inning, he snared Mike Napoli’s vicious line drive to end a threat with two runners on. In the fourth, he had maybe the greatest tag-up in major league history when he scored from third on an extremely shallow fly ball to center. In the fifth inning, he scored all the way from first on Anthony Rizzo’s single. And all of that was after going 4-for-5 in the Cubs’ victory in Game 6. A month later, he capped his sophomore season with the NL MVP award.

Current status: Trying to revitalize a career that has seen him play just 159 games the past three seasons with the Rockies after signing a seven-year, $182 million contract.

Was Bryant, without the injuries, destined for a Hall of Fame career? It’s certainly possible. Since the expansion era in 1961, Bryant ranks sixth in WAR among position players through their first three seasons. The top 30 on that list already includes eight Hall of Famers, plus Barry Bonds and three future locks in Albert Pujols, Mike Trout and Mookie Betts. Right there, that’s better than 1-in-3 odds.

On the other hand … it’s not as cut and dried. Although Bryant hit 39 home runs in his MVP season and 31 in the juiced-ball season of 2019, he wasn’t necessarily destined to remain a big-time power hitter because he never hit the ball all that hard. Bryant has never topped a 90 mph average exit velocity — a figure that 85 qualified hitters reached in 2024. As a rookie in 2015, his hard-hit rate did rank in the 87th percentile, but the game evolved rapidly from that point while Bryant didn’t. His hard-hit percentile dropped to 60th the following year, then 56th and was down to just the 31st percentile by 2018 (when he had his first injured list stint with shoulder inflammation). Of course, he still had a solid all-around game during that span, but even a healthy Bryant might not have matched that 2015-17 peak.

7. Byron Buxton, CF, Minnesota Twins (2014)

Current team: Twins
Career WAR: 24.5 |WAR/162: 5.1

Peak moment: His first 18 games of 2021, when he hit .427 with eight home runs, played spectacular defense in center field and looked like the best player in baseball.

Current status: He’s coming off his first 100-game season since 2017, although he just barely edged past the century mark with 102 games. He produces when he plays, and while still a plus defender, he’s now 31 years old and has lost a step in center field.

Like Eric Davis, the similarly gifted outfielder from the 1980s and 1990s who couldn’t stay healthy, Buxton seems destined for one of the great “what if” careers in MLB history. He has played in just 53% of Minnesota’s games over the past eight seasons. When he has played, he has been productive — note that average of 5.1 WAR per 162 games played in his career. His poor selectivity at the plate probably would have prevented him from reaching best-in-the-game status, but there’s no doubt about his two-way dynamism. And he’s not over the hill just yet; Twins fans can still hope for that one monster season.

8. Jackson Holliday, 2B, Baltimore Orioles (2024)

Current team: Orioles
Career WAR: 0.1 | WAR/162: 0.1

Peak moment: After going 2-for-34 to start his major league career, Holliday was sent down to the minors and called back up three months later. In his first seven games back, he went 9-for-24 with four home runs and 10 RBIs.

Current status: Holliday struggled again after that, hitting .189/.255/.265 over his final 43 games. With Jordan Westburg, Coby Mayo and Ramon Urias on the roster battling for playing time at second and third, Holliday will have to earn a starting position in spring training.

Holliday’s rookie season was a disappointment considering he ranked No. 1 in an absolutely loaded top 10 in 2024. Most alarming was a 33% strikeout rate from a player whose hit tool — he hit .323 with 101 walks in the minors in 2023 — was his calling card. He was also just 20 years old in 2024 and hit well enough while down in Triple-A — .271/.431/.477 with nearly as many walks (75) as strikeouts (77) — to expect good things moving forward, although expectations have been tempered just a bit. Given the Orioles’ infield depth, however, don’t be surprised if he begins the season back in the minors. We have Holliday ranked above Sasaki on this list given his youth and the general risk with pitchers.

9. Roki Sasaki, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers (2025)

Current team: Dodgers
Career WAR: N/A | WAR/162: N/A

Peak moment: Pitching for Japan’s Chiba Lotte Mariners in 2022, Sasaki threw the 16th perfect game in Nippon Professional Baseball history while tying the single-game record of 19 strikeouts and setting a record with 13 consecutive strikeouts. In his next start, he tossed eight perfect innings before getting removed in the ninth.

Current status: You may have heard that the 23-year-old signed recently with the Dodgers.

While Ohtani wasn’t considered for the 2018 Top 100 prospects ranking, Sasaki topped this year’s list — the first pitcher-only player to top a major top prospect list since Daisuke Matsuzaka topped Baseball America’s list in 2007 (Matsuzaka was a veteran from Japan, so if you exclude him, you’d have to go back to Josh Beckett in 2002). There’s no doubt about Sasaki’s stuff and ace potential with a fastball that has reached triple digits and a wipeout splitter. But the question is: Can he stay healthy and reach his potential?

10.Andrew Benintendi, LF, Boston Red Sox (2017)

Current team:Chicago White Sox
Career WAR: 15.3 | WAR/162: 2.4

Peak moment: His game-saving diving catch with the bases loaded for the final out in an 8-6 victory in Game 4 of the 2018 American League Championship Series. The Red Sox went on to beat the Houston Astros and win the World Series.

Current status: He’s collecting a nice paycheck from the White Sox.

Benintendi was the consensus No. 1 prospect over Yoan Moncada in what proved to be a very weak overall top 10 — Cody Bellinger and Dansby Swanson have been the two best players from that year’s list. Benintendi hit .312 in the minors in 2016 and then .295 in a September call-up, with strong bat-to-ball skills and above-average speed, so he projected as a high-average hitter with good defense.

His best season came in that World Series year when he hit .290 while batting second in the lineup and was worth 4.8 WAR. Similar to Bryant, however, he might be assessed a little differently today, as he lacked the high-end exit velocities now preferred in the very top prospects. He has had an up-and-down career and has lost a lot of the athleticism he displayed his first couple of seasons with the Red Sox.