Ranking all 30 MLB rosters if trades, free agency didn’t exist
What if transactions were not allowed in Major League Baseball?
For one thing, it would make for a boring baseball offseason. The winter leagues in Latin America are great and keep our anticipation for spring training somewhat at bay, but it’s the trades and free agent signings that serve as our MLB touchstones until Opening Day.
Still, let’s try to imagine a more severe landscape — an even more extreme version of the reserve clause era — in which once an organization acquires a player, both he and the team are stuck. No trades. No free agency. Together forever, or at least until the player retires.
This exercise gives us an idea of which organizations have done the best job of identifying talent. The outlook changes with each passing year, as players age out and retire, and the organizations ebb and flow. It’s a freeze-frame from a movie full of jump cuts.
It works like this: Using a database on player logistical data from The Baseball Cube, I’ve assigned each player on my 2025 list to the organization that first signed him. The player has to sign, so drafting him only to see him head to a college program doesn’t count.
Once those player assignments were completed, I generated depth charts and merged those with the 2025 player forecasts. A revised season baseline was generated for each club and used to run 10,000 simulations of the coming season.
The result is a response to our what-if: What would the majors look like if players stayed with the team they originally signed with for their entire careers?
The what-if projection is accompanied by what each team’s set of core regulars might look like, though more players than what’s listed impact the numbers. The projection is also compared to each team’s current actual win forecast, which suggests the cumulative impact transactions have had on each club’s 2025 outlook.
Let’s see how our what-if rosters stack up.
Jump to a team:
American League
ATH | BAL | BOS | CHW | CLE
DET | HOU | KC | LAA | MIN
NYY | SEA | TB | TEX | TOR
National League
ARI | ATL | CHC | CIN | COL
LAD | MIA | MIL | NYM | PHI
PIT | SD | SF | STL | WSH
1. Baltimore Orioles
What-if wins: 98.4 (+8.9 better than actual)
Playoff odds: 94.7% | Title odds: 20.5%
Hit rank: 3 | Pitch rank: 6
Regulars:Christian Walker (1B), Jordan Westburg (2B), Gunnar Henderson (SS), Manny Machado (3B), Adley Rutschman (C), Heston Kjerstad (LF), Cedric Mullins (CF), Colton Cowser (RF), Ryan Mountcastle (DH)
Rotation:Kevin Gausman, Grayson Rodriguez, Eduardo Rodriguez, Tobias Myers, Tomoyuki Sugano
Bullpen:Josh Hader, Tanner Scott, DL Hall
In a sense, the Orioles illustrate the outlandishness of this exercise. Sure, it’s great to ponder Machado joining forces with Baltimore’s deep pool of young talent. But if Baltimore had never entered the rebuild that sent away Machado, the O’s probably wouldn’t have been in position to draft players such as Rutschman and Henderson. That doesn’t change the fact that this grouping not only further deepens Baltimore’s position group, but the pitching looks more dynamic, too. The Orioles definitely would love to have that Hader-Scott duo at the back of their bullpen. I think the degree to which the results of the rebuild have tilted toward the hitting side is illustrated here.
2. Atlanta Braves
What-if wins: 98.0 (+3.3 better than actual)
Playoff odds: 96.5% | Title odds: 20.2%
Hit rank: 1 | Pitch rank: 20
Regulars: Freddie Freeman (1B), Caleb Durbin (2B), Ozzie Albies (SS), Austin Riley (3B), Shea Langeliers (C), Juan Yepez (LF), Michael Harris II (CF), Ronald Acuna Jr. (RF), William Contreras (DH)
Rotation:Charlie Morton, Spencer Strider, Ian Anderson, AJ Smith-Shawver, Kyle Wright
Bullpen:Evan Phillips, Craig Kimbrel, A.J. Minter
The Braves were a little light at shortstop, which is why I slid Albies over and inserted Durbin as my display player at the keystone. I could have shuffled in Vaughn Grissom or Nick Ahmed as well. This what-if position group is still the best of any club, with the reconstituted Braves projected to sweep the offensive slash categories. The pitching side, however, is more pockmarked by uncertainty than I would have figured, given some age (Morton, originally signed by the Braves in 2002) and injury-return status (Strider, Wright).
3. Seattle Mariners
What-if wins: 93.6 (+7.9 better than actual)
Playoff odds: 87.1% | Title odds: 11.5%
Hit rank: 11 | Pitch rank: 3
Regulars:Austin Shenton (1B), Ketel Marte (2B), Noelvi Marte (SS), Luis Rengifo (3B), Cal Raleigh (C), Tyler O’Neill (LF), Julio Rodriguez (CF), Chris Taylor (RF), Zach DeLoach (DH)
Rotation:Pablo Lopez, George Kirby, Freddy Peralta, Logan Gilbert, Yusei Kikuchi
Bullpen:Edwin Diaz, Andrew Kittredge, Zack Littell
I threw Littell into the back of the bullpen behind Diaz and Kittredge because Seattle had so many starting pitchers I wanted to get on display. Missing from this list is Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo, JP Sears and Taijuan Walker. Lopez was one of four minor leaguers Seattle sent to Miami in 2017 for reliever David Phelps. Ouch. As much acuity as the Mariners have shown in identifying starting pitchers, they still have no first baseman, a lack of hitters overall — and a what-if outlook markedly better than a solid roster built through the endless iteration of trades.
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
What-if wins: 93.4 (-5.0 worse than actual)
Playoff odds: 91.2% | Title odds: 12.2%
Hit rank: 6 | Pitch rank: 8
Regulars:Carlos Santana (1B), Hyeseong Kim (2B), Corey Seager (SS), Michael Busch (3B), Will Smith (C), Yordan Alvarez (LF), Oneil Cruz (CF), Cody Bellinger (RF), Joc Pederson (DH)
Rotation:Nathan Eovaldi, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Ryan Pepiot
Bullpen:Kenley Jansen, Yimi Garcia, Caleb Ferguson
The obvious thing here is that though the Dodgers have certainly spread talent around the majors, they’ve done so in service of building a roster even better than this. I had a devil of a time picking the players to display in the lineup, leaving out recognizable and likely productive 2025 players such as Gavin Lux, Alex Verdugo, Jonny DeLuca and Andy Pages. What’s left is a devastating offensive crew that has some concerns on defense. Getting the bats of Alvarez and Pederson both in the lineup is worth the tradeoff.
5. New York Mets
What-if wins: 90.7 (+0.1 better than actual)
Playoff odds: 82.4% | Title odds: 6.8%
Hit rank: 15 | Pitch rank: 5
Regulars:Pete Alonso (1B), Jeff McNeil (2B), Andres Gimenez (SS), Mark Vientos (3B), Francisco Alvarez (C), Brandon Nimmo (LF), Pete Crow-Armstrong (CF), Michael Conforto (RF), Jarred Kelenic (DH)
Rotation:Seth Lugo, Kodai Senga, Jacob deGrom, Jose Quintana, David Peterson
Bullpen:Paul Sewald, Jose Butto, Michael Fulmer
It’s kind of hilarious to think that for all the changes the Mets have gone through — front office, manager, roster, etc. — they currently project to be about the same quality as if they had never done a thing. The real-life Mets make more sense as an actual baseball team, however, especially in the setup of the bullpen. Also, New York fans aren’t likely to regret the machinations that gave them both Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto to watch every day.
6. San Diego Padres
What-if wins: 89.8 (+4.4 better than actual)
Playoff odds: 81.5% | Title odds: 6.8%
Hit rank: 7 | Pitch rank: 10
Regulars:Ty France (1B), CJ Abrams (2B), Trea Turner (SS), Ha-Seong Kim (3B), Luis Campusano (C), James Wood (LF), Jackson Merrill (CF), Hunter Renfroe (RF), Jake Bauers (DH)
Rotation:Max Fried, MacKenzie Gore, Zach Eflin, Miles Mikolas, Ryan Weathers
Bullpen:Emmanuel Clase, Andres Munoz, David Bednar
This exercise undoes outgoing prospect deals from various phases of the recent Padres, joining Turner and Fried with Abrams, Wood and Gore. Of the players noted above, only Campusano and Merrill figure to be part of the 2025 Friars, unless Kim re-signs. What this says about the often frenetic stylings of A.J. Preller is a matter of debate. But that back-of-the-bullpen crew might make San Diego fans want to weep.
7. Houston Astros
What-if wins: 89.4 (+1.5 better than actual)
Playoff odds: 71.0% | Title odds: 5.4%
Hit rank: 4 | Pitch rank: 17
Regulars:Kyle Tucker (1B), Jose Altuve (2B), Carlos Correa (SS), Alex Bregman (3B), Jake Rogers (C), Teoscar Hernandez (LF), George Springer (CF), Wilyer Abreu (RF), J.D. Martinez (DH)
Rotation:Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti, Luis Garcia
Bullpen:Bryan Abreu, Jorge Alcala, Ryan Thompson
One of my rules was to avoid putting players in spots they haven’t played, with the exception of shifting some starters to bullpen roles where it made sense. Here, I’ve cheated a bit in that Tucker has all of four career appearances at first base and is a terrific defensive outfielder. Mostly this reconstitution brings back the vintage Astros position group from the successful past decade and pairs it with a projected rotation that is very similar to what Houston will deploy in 2025. The position group, though containing many veterans, is still alluring — and these selections leave out shortstop Jeremy Pena. But keeping these hitters together would have been a pricey proposition.
8. Cleveland Guardians
What-if wins: 86.9 (+7.0 better than actual)
Playoff odds: 63.5% | Title odds: 3.8%< br>Hit rank: 2 | Pitch rank: 26
Regulars:Yandy Diaz (1B), Brayan Rocchio (2B), Francisco Lindor (SS), Jose Ramirez (3B), Yainer Diaz (C), Anthony Santander (LF), Steven Kwan (CF), Nolan Jones (RF), Junior Caminero (DH)
Rotation:Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Aaron Civale, Logan Allen, Shane Bieber
Bullpen:Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin
The Guardians’ re-projection seems backward. Cleveland has churned out a lot of starting pitchers but right now, whether it’s because of poor 2024 showings or injuries, they have limited 2025 forecasts. The bullpen here features three hurlers who had sub-2.00 ERAs last season but all of them project to regress. And Clase is still a Padre. On the other hand, the position group the Guardians can piece back together is really exciting, beginning with the reunion of Lindor and Ramirez in the infield. Then there’s Caminero, who is one of baseball’s best prospects. With this hindsight, Cleveland gets to undo the November 2019 trade that sent him to the Rays for Tobias Myers. That would be nice.
9. New York Yankees
What-if wins: 84.9 (-5.7 worse than actual)
Playoff odds: 45.6% | Title odds: 1.8%
Hit rank: 5 | Pitch rank: 25
Regulars:Ben Rice (1B), Thairo Estrada (2B), Anthony Volpe (SS), Josh Smith (3B), Austin Wells (C), Oswaldo Cabrera (LF), Jasson Dominguez (CF), Aaron Judge (RF), Miguel Andujar (DH)
Rotation:Luis Severino, Randy Vasquez, Clarke Schmidt, Jordan Montgomery, Nestor Cortes
Bullpen:David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, Garrett Whitlock
Though I couldn’t come up with an answer at first base for the Yankees, the position depth beyond this group is considerable. There aren’t a lot of right-now stars but a number of contributors such as Trey Sweeney, Gary Sanchez, Oliver Dunn, Ezequiel Duran, Kyle Higashioka and Rob Refsnyder. With the Judge/Volpe/Wells foundation intact, it all adds up. The rotation lacks star power, with the possible exception of the resurgent Severino. The depth of that group would be questionable, as the next names on the list would be traded prospects such as Mitch Spence, Hayden Wesneski and Drew Thorpe, along with perhaps current prospect Will Warren. The bottom line: The real Bombers are better, and they still have Aaron Judge.
10. Tampa Bay Rays
What-if wins: 84.7 (+4.6 better than actual)
Playoff odds: 45.3% | Title odds: 1.8%
Hit rank: 26 | Pitch rank: 1
Regulars:Nathaniel Lowe (1B), Brandon Lowe (2B), Jake Cronenworth (SS), Jonathan Aranda (3B), Rene Pinto (C), Jake Fraley (LF), Josh Lowe (CF), Jesus Sanchez (RF), Kyle Manzardo (DH)
Rotation:Blake Snell, Cristopher Sanchez, Shane McClanahan, Merrill Kelly, Joe Ryan
Bullpen:Kirby Yates, Jose Alvarado, Taj Bradley
My gosh, the pitching! I shunted Bradley to the bullpen just to get another worthy starter on display. Missing are German Marquez and Alex Cobb. The position player group isn’t as dynamic offensively, but it would complement the staff well. The Rays really haven’t landed and developed many impact catchers in recent years. I went with Pinto over Brett Sullivan, Luke Maile and Omar Narvaez, but it really doesn’t matter. There’s a reason Danny Jansen has been Tampa Bay’s one offseason splurge.
11. Boston Red Sox
What-if wins: 83.8 (+2.9 better than actual)
Playoff odds: 39.8% | Title odds: 1.5%
Hit rank: 8 | Pitch rank: 21
Regulars:Triston Casas (1B), Xander Bogaerts (2B), Ceddanne Rafaela (SS), Rafael Devers (3B), Christian Vazquez (C), Andrew Benintendi (LF), Jarren Duran (CF), Mookie Betts (RF), Masataka Yoshida (DH)
Rotation:Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Frankie Montas, Kyle Hart
Bullpen:Michael Kopech, Chris Martin, Ryan Pressly
The co-presence of Betts and Rafaela makes for a lot of possible positional alignments, but in the end, it’s a nice-looking group. You’d expect it to be better than the real thing based on Betts alone, and it is. It’s an interesting but not very deep rotation. Hart, a former 19th-round lefty out of Indiana with a career MLB ERA of 15.55, has built value by flourishing overseas in the KBO, enough that reportedly a number of teams are interested in bringing him back stateside. If that happens, it’s another abject lesson for big league hurlers on the wrong side of an ugly ERA: Go to Korea.
12. Washington Nationals
What-if wins: 81.7 (+13.9 better than actual)
Playoff odds: 39.5% | Title odds: 1.2%
Hit rank: 16 | Pitch rank: 13
Regulars:Bryce Harper (1B), Luis Garcia Jr. (2B), Brady House (SS), Anthony Rendon (3B), Brady Lindsly (C), Victor Robles (LF), Jacob Young (CF), Dylan Crews (RF), Juan Soto (DH)
Rotation:Erick Fedde, Reynaldo Lopez, Nick Pivetta, Robbie Ray, Jesus Luzardo
Bullpen:Jake Cousins, Dane Dunning, Cade Cavalli
This is another likely impossible combination. Yes, the Nationals get Harper and Soto back together again. Doing so would almost certainly make it impossible for them to later draft House and Crews. In any event, now that Harper plays first and the NL has the DH, I get to keep them together and still give Washington a heck of a defensive outfield. One thing you might observe about that rotation: There are a lot of players who have done a lot better after leaving the Nationals, though some did so when they were very young. It’s still a pattern Washington might want to investigate. Incidentally, I had to scour the organization depth chart for Lindsly when my exercise didn’t turn up any catchers for the Nats.
13. St. Louis Cardinals
What-if wins: 81.4 (+1.6 better than actual)
Playoff odds: 52.6% | Title odds: 1.3%
Hit rank: 19 | Pitch rank: 7
Regulars:Brendan Donovan (1B), Tommy Edman (2B), Masyn Winn (SS), Jordan Walker (3B), Ivan Herrera (C), Randy Arozarena (LF), Lars Nootbaar (CF), Adolis Garcia (RF), Alec Burleson (DH)
Rotation:Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen, Michael Wacha, Jack Flaherty, Austin Gomber
Bullpen:Ryan Helsley, Luke Weaver, Adam Ottavino
The Cardinals were one of the main inspirations for doing this. I’ve long believed that though St. Louis turns out a lot of big league talent, producing a surplus that can be used in deals, the Cardinals have tended to pick the wrong players to trade. The depth is real: Not listed are playable types such as Victor Scott II, Harrison Bader, Carson Kelly, Paul DeJong and Nolan Gorman. There are a lot of hitters coming off bad seasons (Garcia, Walker, Arozarena) and Alcantara’s innings forecast is held back by his injury-returnee status. Otherwise, the Cardinals would jump a few slots in this exercise. Maybe next year.
14. Chicago White Sox
What-if wins: 80.6 (+20.9 better than actual)
Playoff odds: 32.5% | Title odds: 0.8%
Hit rank: 25 | Pitch rank: 4
Regulars:Andrew Vaughn (1B), Marcus Semien (2B), Colson Montgomery (SS), Jake Burger (3B), Seby Zavala (C), Oscar Colas (LF), Luis Robert Jr. (CF), Fernando Tatis Jr. (RF), Romy Gonzalez (DH)
Rotation:Chris Sale, Chris Bassitt, Carlos Rodon, Garrett Crochet, Jonathan Cannon
Bullpen:Ian Hamilton, Aaron Bummer, Tanner Banks
The strength of that core rotation keeps the White Sox in the middle. Getting Sale, Crochet and Rodon together is tempting. And what White Sox fan wouldn’t want to undo the trades that sent away Semien and Tatis? Still, it adds up to a hole-filled, middle-of-the-road roster short on bats with no depth. The current plan to beef up the minor league system is a good one.
15. Chicago Cubs
What-if wins: 80.2 (-2.9 worse than actual)
Playoff odds: 44.6% | Title odds: 0.9%
Hit rank: 18 | Pitch rank: 14
Regulars:Jeimer Candelario (1B), Gleyber Torres (2B), Nico Hoerner (SS), Isaac Paredes (3B), Willson Contreras (C), Jorge Soler (LF), Ian Happ (CF), Seiya Suzuki (RF), Kyle Schwarber (DH)
Rotation:Shota Imanaga, Dylan Cease, Justin Steele, Javier Assad, Paul Blackburn
Bullpen:Jeremiah Estrada, Bryan Hudson, Pierce Johnson
The Cubs would take that back of the bullpen, for sure. Though there are a lot of recognizable names in the list of regulars, it’s still a group of solid types with no star-level production to bring it together. More interesting than the names here, though, are the ones who aren’t listed, all because they currently don’t project as well as those you see above. That includes Kris Bryant, DJ LeMahieu, Christopher Morel, Eloy Jimenez and Javier Baez. Not sure what that says about the Cubs, but it’s interesting.
16. Texas Rangers
What-if wins: 80.0 (-5.6 worse than actual)
Playoff odds: 25.1% | Title odds: 0.5%
Hit rank: 20 | Pitch rank: 11
Regulars:Dylan Moore (1B), Thomas Saggese (2B), Luisangel Acuna (SS), Josh Jung (3B), Jose Trevino (C), Evan Carter (LF), Leody Taveras (CF), Wyatt Langford (RF), Jurickson Profar (DH)
Rotation:Cole Ragans, Yu Darvish, Nick Martinez, Jeffrey Springs, Cody Bradford
Bullpen:Pete Fairbanks, Reed Garrett, Justin Slaten
You can add names such as Kumar Rocker, Jack Leiter, Martin Perez, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Leclerc and Luke Jackson to the list of hurlers above. The Rangers have done a nice job of finding pitchers who eventually make an impact in the majors. This version of a position group is really fun and full of young players. Profar becomes the one-time touted prospect still around to mentor the new arrivals.
17. Minnesota Twins
What-if wins: 80.0 (-6.4 worse than actual)
Playoff odds: 30.3% | Title odds: 0.6%
Hit rank: 17 | Pitch rank: 15
Regulars:LaMonte Wade Jr. (1B), Jorge Polanco (2B), Royce Lewis (SS), Jose Miranda (3B), Mitch Garver (C), Brent Rooker (LF), Byron Buxton (CF), Max Kepler (RF), Luis Arraez (DH)
Rotation:Jose Berrios, Bailey Ober, Luis Gil, Kyle Gibson, Cade Povich
Bullpen:Griffin Jax, Yennier Cano, Liam Hendriks
It’s an intriguing mix, but there are a lot of players coming off down seasons or who are held back due to injury. There are also a few players who got a lot better once they left Minnesota, including Wade, Gil and Cano. But with Rooker recently signing a $60 million extension with the A’s, he’s one who really stands out. Of course, the Royals also had their shot at Rooker so it’s not like Minnesota was the only club that overlooked his nascent bat.
18. Los Angeles Angels
What-if wins: 79.0 (+5.4 better than actual)
Playoff odds: 21.5% | Title odds: 0.5%
Hit rank: 12 | Pitch rank: 23
Regulars: Nolan Schanuel (1B), Christian Moore (2B), Zach Neto (SS), Taylor Ward (3B), Edgar Quero (C), Jo Adell (LF), Brandon Marsh (CF), Mike Trout (RF), Shohei Ohtani (DH)
Rotation: Shohei Ohtani, Jose Soriano, Patrick Corbin, Griffin Canning, Reid Detmers
Bullpen:Ben Joyce, Ryan Brasier, Justin Anderson
It’s basically similar to what the Angels have on hand, plus Ohtani is back as a two-way star. Having Ohtani is always better than not having Ohtani, but undoing his departure wouldn’t change the things that have undermined the Halos on the field for most of the Trout era.
19. Kansas City Royals
What-if wins: 77.7 (-5.7 worse than actual)
Playoff odds: 20.9% | Title odds: 0.4%
Hit rank: 13 | Pitch rank: 24
Regulars:Vinnie Pasquantino (1B), Michael Massey (2B), Bobby Witt Jr. (SS), Maikel Garcia (3B), Salvador Perez (C), MJ Melendez (LF), Kyle Isbel (CF), Esteury Ruiz (RF), Ryan O’Hearn (DH)
Rotation:Sean Manaea, Brady Singer, Alec Marsh, Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch IV
Bullpen:Jason Adam, Matt Strahm, Tim Hill
There are a lot of similarities between this roster and the one the Royals will likely take into 2025. It’s to their credit that their current roster is expected to net nearly six more wins than this one. That’s solid acquisition work. I had forgotten Ruiz started off with Kansas City. He was dealt to San Diego during the 2017 deadline period, along with Strahm, in a trade that didn’t work out so well. Ruiz wouldn’t be an ideal starter, but he would make a steal-friendly lineup even more of a track team.
20. Philadelphia Phillies
What-if wins: 77.6 (-12.5 worse than actual)
Playoff odds: 22.3% | Title odds: 0.4%
Hit rank: 22 | Pitch rank: 16
Regulars:Rhys Hoskins (1B), Bryson Stott (2B), J.P. Crawford (SS), Alec Bohm (3B), Logan O’Hoppe (C), Matt Vierling (LF), Johan Rojas (CF), Mickey Moniak (RF), Jon Singleton (DH)
Rotation:Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez, Bailey Falter, Ben Brown, Andrew Painter
Bullpen:Orion Kerkering, Seranthony Dominguez, Mark Leiter Jr.
Speaking of acquisition work … the difference between the original Phils (above) and the real Phils is the reason Dave Dombrowski was put on this planet. Prospect depth is great and everyone loves a homegrown star. But turning that talent into a championship roster is not easy. Philadelphia is knocking on the door, and has been for a few campaigns. The caveat: You’ve got to afford the payroll if you’re going to have a foundation of acquired players. If you can, this is what you get. No team has more of a positive disparity in its real-life forecast than the Phillies.
21. Toronto Blue Jays
What-if wins: 77.3 (-5.6 worse than actual)
Playoff odds: 13.1% | Title odds: 0.3%
Hit rank: 9 | Pitch rank: 28
Regulars:Spencer Horwitz (1B), Otto Lopez (2B), Bo Bichette (SS), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3B), Gabriel Moreno (C), Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (LF), Kevin Pillar (CF), Lane Thomas (RF), Davis Schneider (DH)
Rotation: Marcus Stroman, Matthew Boyd, Yariel Rodriguez, CJ Van Eyk, Josh Winckowski
Bullpen:Jeff Hoffman, Tayler Saucedo, Nate Pearson
The rotation stands out but not in a good way. Van Eyk is someone I plucked from the organizational chart to fill things out, and Winckowski is more a reliever than a starter. The jury is still out on Rodriguez. Pearson was dropped into the bullpen in this sketch but his presence is an avatar for the fact that the Jays just haven’t developed many starting pitchers. With top prospect Ricky Tiedemann likely out for 2025 after Tommy John surgery, the beat goes on, at least for now.
22. San Francisco Giants
What-if wins: 77.0 (-2.0 worse than actual)
Playoff odds: 22.2% | Title odds: 0.3%
Hit rank: 24 | Pitch rank: 9
Regulars: Bryce Eldridge (1B), Marco Luciano (2B), Tyler Fitzgerald (SS), Casey Schmitt (3B), Patrick Bailey (C), Bryan Reynolds (LF), Jung Hoo Lee (CF), Heliot Ramos (RF), Austin Slater (DH)
Rotation:Logan Webb, Zack Wheeler, Luis Castillo, Kyle Harrison, Hayden Birdsong
Bullpen:Camilo Doval, Jonathan Loaisiga, Ryan Walker
I really needed a first baseman so I jumped the gun on Eldridge, who just reached Triple-A in the latter stages of the 2024 season. There are some holes in the position group even after reclaiming Reynolds from Pittsburgh. But you’ve got to love that rotation big three. If you had forgotten Castillo began his professional career in the Giants’ system, you’re forgiven. It has now been more than 10 years since he was traded to Miami for Casey McGehee. This July, it will be 14 years since Wheeler was traded to the Mets for Carlos Beltran. Time flies.
23. Arizona Diamondbacks
What-if wins: 76.4 (-11.3 worse than actual)
Playoff odds: 19.4% | Title odds: 0.2%
Hit rank: 10 | Pitch rank: 27
Regulars: Paul Goldschmidt (1B), Geraldo Perdomo (2B), Dansby Swanson (SS), Jazz Chisholm Jr. (3B), Adrian Del Castillo (C), Daulton Varsho (LF), Jake McCarthy (CF), Corbin Carroll (RF), Pavin Smith (DH)
Rotation:Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson, Max Scherzer, Slade Cecconi, Drey Jameson
Bullpen:Jhoan Duran, Justin Martinez, Kevin Ginkel
The list of regulars looks very different from what Arizona will deploy in 2025, but the result is similar. The back of that version of the bullpen is filthy, with Duran joining Martinez. Duran was just 16 when he signed with Arizona in 2014. Four years later, he was traded for Eduardo Escobar. The real Diamondbacks are way better because of the rotation Mike Hazen has put together. Of the above names, only Pfaadt is a sure thing to be among the core five, with Nelson a possibility to crack the group. Beyond that, Hazen has added Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez and, most recently, Corbin Burnes.
24. Cincinnati Reds
What-if wins: 75.8 (+0.6 better than actual)
Playoff odds: 22.7% | Title odds: 0.3%
Hit rank: 21 | Pitch rank: 19
Regulars:Justin Turner (1B), Jonathan India (2B), Matt McLain (SS), Elly De La Cruz (3B), Tyler Stephenson (C), Jesse Winker (LF), Jose Siri (CF), TJ Friedl (RF), Michael Siani (DH)
Rotation:Hunter Greene, Tyler Mahle, Andrew Abbott, Michael Lorenzen, Nick Lodolo
Bullpen:Raisel Iglesias, Aroldis Chapman, Alexis Diaz
Not a bad foundation for a bullpen, no? The rotation mix isn’t much different, with Mahle and Lorenzen playing the parts of veteran floor-raisers. Rhett Lowder isn’t listed and Ben Lively would return as a quality depth option for Terry Francona. The position group, with its underwhelming outfield and DH pick, underscores Cincinnati’s general failure to develop impact bats. Turner’s unusual big league journey began in the Cincinnati system, but he was traded to Baltimore before reaching the majors.
25. Milwaukee Brewers
What-if wins: 72.8 (-8.4 worse than actual)
Playoff odds: 13.9% | Title odds: 0.1%
Hit rank: 28 | Pitch rank: 12
Regulars:Garrett Cooper (1B), Brice Turang (2B), Orlando Arcia (SS), Tyler Black (3B), David Fry (C), Garrett Mitchell (LF), Jackson Chourio (CF), Sal Frelick (RF), Tyrone Taylor (DH)
Rotation: Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Bowden Francis, Reese Olson, Drew Rasmussen
Bullpen:Devin Williams, Lucas Erceg, Brent Suter
The Brewers are known as much for their ability to develop other teams’ pitchers as for what they’ve done with their own. Still, the group listed is strong. The Burnes-Woodruff duo is reunited, and Williams never gets to join the Yankees. Erceg might be the most interesting name on the list. A second-round pick by Milwaukee in 2016 as a position player, he was bogged down in the Milwaukee system as a hitter. He started pitching in 2021 but never made a big league appearance for the Brewers. He ended up being purchased by the A’s in 2023. Now, he’s one of the game’s most dominant relievers — for Kansas City. You just never know.
26. Detroit Tigers
What-if wins: 72.3 (-8.1 worse than actual)
Playoff odds: 6.7% | Title odds: 0.0%
Hit rank: 23 | Pitch rank: 22
Regulars: Spencer Torkelson (1B), Colt Keith (2B), Willy Adames (SS), Eugenio Suarez (3B), Dillon Dingler (C), Riley Greene (LF), Parker Meadows (CF), Kerry Carpenter (RF), Nick Castellanos (DH)
Rotation:Tarik Skubal, Justin Verlander, Keider Montero, Jackson Jobe, Casey Mize
Bullpen:Jason Foley, Joe Jimenez, Brant Hurter
This is a Dickensian rotation, featuring the ghosts of starters past, present and future. We’ll let you decide who is what among Verlander, Skubal and Jobe. The position players gain Suarez, Adames and Castellanos to pair with the current young core. Detroit’s offensive fortunes would still hinge on the development of that younger group. Having Adames would be nice though, and not just because he’s a good player. Having him around might have dissuaded the Tigers from making a certain free agent investment they now wish they had not made. We refer you to the Cubs section to see if you can figure out the player we’re talking about. OK, it’s Baez.
27. Athletics
What-if wins: 70.3 (-3.2 worse than actual)
Playoff odds: 3.1% | Title odds: 0.0%
Hit rank: 14 | Pitch rank: 30
Regulars:Matt Olson (1B), Zack Gelof (2B), Jacob Wilson (SS), Matt Chapman (3B), Sean Murphy (C), Seth Brown (LF), Lawrence Butler (CF), Dairon Blanco (RF), Max Muncy (DH)
Rotation: Sonny Gray, Hogan Harris, A.J. Puk, Brady Basso, Jack Perkins
Bullpen:Mason Miller, Blake Treinen, Kyle Finnegan
The extent to which the A’s have relied on acquired pitchers was surprising. Other than Gray, I’m really grasping at straws to put down five names. Puk is a reliever who has started at times and using him as such here still allows me to flesh out a really nice bullpen. The hitters are above average as a group. The Matts are together again and the return of the Dodgers’ Max Muncy gives the Athletics two players in the organization with that name. The group is light at shortstop and the outfield, where Blanco is a speedy reach.
28. Pittsburgh Pirates
What-if wins: 69.9 (-3.3 worse than actual)
Playoff odds: 7.3% | Title odds: 0.1%
Hit rank: 30 | Pitch rank: 2
Regulars:Josh Bell (1B), Adam Frazier (2B), Nick Gonzales (SS), Ke’Bryan Hayes (3B), Jacob Stallings (C), Robbie Grossman (LF), Starling Marte (CF), Andrew McCutchen (RF), Jared Triolo (DH)
Rotation:Gerrit Cole, Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Tyler Glasnow, Shane Baz
Bullpen:Clay Holmes, Jared Jones, Luis Ortiz
The offensive core of the good Pirates teams from the past decade is mostly still active around the majors, but the Pirates are no longer playing at a contention level. It’s a thin group on top of that and, thus, Pittsburgh lands in this slot despite an absolutely ridiculous depth of quality starting pitchers. Any thoughts of having Holmes convert to a starter would be silly with this group. I dropped Jones and Ortiz (traded to Cleveland over the winter) into the bullpen just to make space. I didn’t have room for Jameson Taillon. Same for Osvaldo Bido, Quinn Priester and rising prospect Bubba Chandler. And yet look who is still left behind. That’s impressive.
29. Miami Marlins
What-if wins: 69.7 (+4.3 better than actual)
Playoff odds: 3.9% | Title odds: 0.0%
Hit rank: 27 | Pitch rank: 18
Regulars:Josh Naylor (1B), Austin Barnes (2B), Javier Sanoja (SS), Mark Canha (3B), J.T. Realmuto (C), Christian Yelich (LF), JJ Bleday (CF), Giancarlo Stanton (RF), Marcell Ozuna (DH)
Rotation:Michael King, Andrew Heaney, Edward Cabrera, Trevor Rogers, Max Meyer
Bullpen:Felix Bautista, Dylan Lee, Alex Vesia
There are a lot of big names on the position list, but there are glaring holes on the depth chart that required me to do some creative position assignments. Ozuna was an MVP candidate last year but by and large, the big names are now post-prime. Soon, if Miami doesn’t surface some self-identified hitting talent, the picture will get worse. As for the pitchers, the same injury-related conservatism with innings estimates applies to the re-upped Marlins staff.
30. Colorado Rockies
What-if wins: 56.7 (-0.6 worse than actual)
Playoff odds: 0.1% | Title odds: 0.0%
Hit rank: 29 | Pitch rank: 29
Regulars:Ryan McMahon (1B), Trevor Story (2B), Ezequiel Tovar (SS), Nolan Arenado (3B), Hunter Goodman (C), Jordan Beck (LF), Brenton Doyle (CF), Mike Tauchman (RF), Michael Toglia (DH)
Rotation:Ryan Feltner, Tyler Anderson, Jon Gray, Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela
Bullpen:Carlos Estevez, Joel Payamps, Sam Moll
McMahon, Story, Arenado, Tauchman, Anderson, Gray, Freeland and Senzatela were all part of Colorado’s last decent team, a wild-card entrant in 2018. That they still make this list illustrates how things have stagnated since then. Colorado has a fairly lauded group of prospects in its system but as we’re basing this on the 2025 outlook, that’s for a future version of the what-if rosters.
