Major League Baseball’s free agent market has cooled since a red-hot stretch at MLB’s winter meetings that included middle- and lower-tier free agents landing strong deals in addition to Juan Soto‘s record $765 million contract with the New York Mets. While a smattering of signings is expected before Christmas, the post-Soto deluge most in the industry foresaw has not materialized.

The culprits are mainly twofold. With prices for players at a premium, teams have turned to the trade market as an alternative, leaving free agency stagnant. Teams also recognize the calendar works in their favor. The closer it gets to when spring camps open in February, the more difficult it is for players to remain steadfast in their demands.

The freeze will eventually thaw. Too many teams have money to spend and holes to fill. Every free market evolves differently, and this one — led by Soto, Max Fried‘s $218 million deal with the New York Yankees, and a pair of $182 million contracts for Willy Adames (San Francisco) and Blake Snell (Los Angeles Dodgers) — has already seen $2 billion committed to 43 major league free agents.

That’s more than a quarter-billion dollars more than ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel projection for those players. He projected total spending in the winter to exceed $3.55 billion, and with a handful of big-name players and a slew of solid mid-tier players remaining on the market, it should surpass that figure.

In the meantime, the waiting game is on. Here is where each of the distinct offseason markets stands, starting with the one that has the most action at the moment.

Trade market

Temperature: Warm

Over the past week-plus, the trade market had been ablaze. The Chicago Cubs landed star outfielder Kyle Tucker. The Boston Red Sox acquired left-hander Garrett Crochet. The Yankees dealt for All-Star closer Devin Williams and outfielder/first baseman Cody Bellinger in separate trades. The Toronto Blue Jays took on nearly $100 million in second baseman Andrés Giménez‘s contract.

And the trade market is still percolating with activity. St. Louis third baseman Nolan Arenado used his no-trade protection to block a deal to the Houston Astros, who were willing to pay $59 million of the remaining $64 million on his contract, according to sources. While the parties could revisit a trade for Arenado, his killing the deal could lead St. Louis to kick in more money as it attempts to move him — and, in doing, so draw more teams’ interest — or could lead to Arenado staying with the Cardinals.

He is not the only All-Star on the trade market. San Diego general manager A.J. Preller, always willing to consider creative deals, could move infielders Jake Cronenworth or Luis Arraez. With a paucity of on-the-dirt free agents, either would bring back a premium. Chicago White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr. is owed $15 million this year with a pair of $20 million club options after that, and whether it’s this winter or at the July trade deadline, he is widely expected to be dealt.

For teams in search of an outfield bat, the Mets’ Starling Marte, Cleveland’s Lane Thomas, San Francisco’s Mike Yastrzemski and the Los Angeles Angels‘ Taylor Ward are there to be had. Other options include Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor — whose availability, along with that of San Francisco’s LaMonte Wade Jr. and Texas’ Nathaniel Lowe, further muddies a crowded first-base free agent market — Angels utilityman Luis Rengifo and Minnesota catcher Christian Vazquez.

The cache of arms who could be on the move includes Padres right-hander Dylan Cease, Miami left-hander Jesus Luzardo, St. Louis right-hander Erick Fedde, Texas right-hander Jon Gray and Minnesota right-hander Chris Paddack, with Tampa Bay less likely to move right-hander Zack Littell after dealing lefty Jeffrey Springs to the A’s.

Some of the biggest names bandied about come with complications. Three-time All-Star Luis Castillo has been dangled by Seattle in multiple scenarios but wields a no-trade clause. Same with Carlos Correa, owed $128 million over the last four years of his deal with Minnesota. The Twins have listened on right-hander Pablo Lopez, and if free agent pitching prices remain stratospheric, perhaps they’ll go beyond the listening stage.

On the other hand, Philadelphia is steadfast in its contention that third baseman Alec Bohm isn’t going anywhere, despite the Phillies’ desire to reshape their roster. A near-lock not to be moved: left-hander Framber Valdez, with Houston having told opposing executives it plans to keep him.

The biggest name missing from this list: Toronto first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The Blue Jays entered this winter intending to spend, and while they won’t spread out the $700 million they were willing to give Soto on a group of lesser players, moving Guerrero is a last resort. If Toronto struggles and doesn’t foresee re-signing Guerrero, he’ll become the prize of the July deadline.

The two remaining top-of-the-market free agents

Temperature: Comfortable

Right-hander Corbin Burnes and third baseman Alex Bregman are the two players left who fit this description, each with distinct markets that include some crossover. They also share an agent (Scott Boras) and a likely signing date after Christmas.

The cost to sign Burnes is likely to exceed Fried’s deal, and Bregman’s payday could be in the $200 million range as well. The markets for both players remain strong because a number of teams still have big money to spend. Among those with payroll flexibility: Toronto, San Francisco, Boston, Baltimore, Detroit, Houston and both New York teams.

Bregman has the widest variety of options. The Blue Jays need a third baseman. Ditto the Red Sox. The Yankees could move Jazz Chisholm Jr. from third to second base, and the Mets could make a similar infield shuffle with Mark Vientos shifting to first. The Astros don’t want to stretch beyond a six-year offer and got Isaac Paredes in the Tucker trade to man third, but he could shift to first if Bregman re-signs with Houston. And the Tigers have a need for top-end talent and a connection through manager A.J. Hinch, under whom Bregman played for five years. The Phillies are also lurking, but only if they were to move Bohm.

Burnes’ suitors include the Giants, Blue Jays and Orioles, and because of his bona fides — four All-Star appearances, a Cy Young Award and the second-best ERA in MLB over the past half-decade at 2.88 — ruling out others engaging would be premature.

Lower-top-tier free agents

Temperature: Could use some heat

This two-player tier comes with more questions. First baseman Pete Alonso‘s and right-hander Jack Flaherty‘s fortunes are unclear and could depend on where Burnes and Bregman land.

On one hand, Alonso’s consistent production — he plays all the time, has averaged 42 home runs and 110 RBIs in his five full big league seasons, and would fit in the heart of the batting order for every team in baseball — is unimpeachable. On the other, his profile frightens teams: a 30-year-old, right-handed-hitting and -throwing first baseman. Teams are hesitant to give him a long-term deal. At the same time, they see great value in adding him for the next few years. The Mets could still bring him back. The Yankees could enter the fray more aggressively. Sometimes, markets just take time to build, but the risk in waiting is that they never do.

While Flaherty hasn’t been as consistent as Alonso, he’s coming off a better season, is 29 and won’t demand as hefty an annual salary. The exorbitant cost of starting pitching — from Luis Severino getting $67 million over three years from the Athletics to Frankie Montas receiving two years and $34 million from the Mets to Matthew Boyd going to the Cubs for two years and $29 million — has lifted per-year expectations for Flaherty even higher. However long Flaherty’s free agency takes to flesh out, he’s still bound to do well because every team needs starting pitching, and all it takes is one suitor to step up.

Middle-tier starting pitching

Temperature: Cooling

Where Flaherty’s timeline corresponds with the rest of the pitching market is one of the winter’s great unanswered questions. Just below him in our free agency rankings are a handful of pitchers who will receive multiyear deals at a strong annual rate, including left-hander Sean Manaea, right-hander Nick Pivetta and right-hander Walker Buehler, who has the best case of the bunch to negotiate an opt-out clause after the first season of the deal coming off his strong postseason performance in his return from Tommy John surgery.

Teams are no longer leaping at starting pitchers with quite the ferocity of earlier this winter. Baltimore does not want to forfeit a draft pick by signing a starter saddled with a qualifying offer (Manaea and Pivetta), while the Mets are among the teams happy to dabble in the depth market (like their one-year, $4.25 million signing of right-hander Griffin Canning on Wednesday) and try to pick off an impact arm later in free agency, the sort of philosophy espoused by a number of organizations.

Other available starters include left-hander Andrew Heaney, future Hall of Famers Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, and lefty Patrick Sandoval, who was non-tendered by the Angels before he was projected to receive around $5.5 million in arbitration. Sandoval, coming off Tommy John surgery in June, could far exceed that number when he ultimately signs.

Infielders

Temperature: Cold

The pipes are frozen on the first-base market. Beyond Alonso, Christian Walker is the top available choice, and he would love to get a fourth year. So far, teams have balked at going more than three. Paul Goldschmidt and Carlos Santana, both in their late 30s, will require one-year deals and have held firm on prices teams simply haven’t been willing to pay yet.

The teams in need of a first baseman include some of the biggest in baseball: the Yankees, Mets, Astros, Arizona and Seattle. But as long as teams believe Naylor and Wade are available, they can stand firm on free agents and threaten to — or actually — pivot to trades.

The two top middle infielders available each come with impediments. For Ha-Seong Kim, who has played shortstop, second base and third base, it’s his arm. He underwent labrum surgery in August, and for a player whose big league value mostly has come from his defense, it’s a fair concern. At the same time, Kim is targeting a late-April return, and accordingly, he does not want to sign at a severe discount. Second baseman Gleyber Torres was barely a league-average hitter this year and does not distinguish himself defensively or on the basepaths. But he’s only 28. And as much as teams value production, age remains a pertinent factor in free agent signings and could serve as Torres’ saving grace.

Relief pitchers

Temperature: Frosty

The relief market has been barren, leaving plenty of opportunity for teams with limited money to snake an arm or two. Only two relievers have received multiyear deals this winter: Blake Treinen and Yimi Garcia, each for two seasons. Only two others have signed for more than $8 million: Aroldis Chapman and Jordan Romano.

It will take hefty dollars to sign Tanner Scott, the left-handed closer and gem of the class. He won’t approach Edwin Diaz or Josh Hader money, but Scott’s performance this season — 1.75 ERA over 72 innings with 84 strikeouts and just three home runs allowed — warrants at least a four-year deal for $15 million or more a year. The issue: Few teams want to play in the expensive-reliever sandbox. The riposte to that sort of thinking: With relief pitching more important than ever, Scott should be on the wish list of every contender.

The rest of the market includes a pair of right-handers who will get multiyear pacts (Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez), a trio of old-head closers (Kirby Yates, David Robertson and Kenley Jansen), and other veteran arms (right-handers Tommy Kahnle, José LeClerc, Paul Sewald and Chris Martin, and left-handers Colin Poche and Tim Hill ). As with starters, there is plenty of need for relievers. Once the market gets going, it will move quickly.

Corner outfielders

Temperature: Frigid

This is the most confusing group considering that the list of teams that have inquired about corner outfielders includes nearly half the teams in baseball: the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Mets, Padres, Yankees, Braves, Phillies, Giants, Angels, Astros, Reds, Pirates and Royals

There aren’t enough free agents to fill the open spots. While some teams could bow out via other moves — if the Yankees sign a first baseman, for example, Bellinger will be a full-time outfielder and negate the need for another — plenty have the incentive to lock in on a target and go full pursuit.

At the front of the group are Teoscar Hernández and Anthony Santander. Both are coming off excellent seasons that led to being tagged with a qualifying offer. Hernández’s return to the Dodgers has always felt logical, but with his free agency festering longer than anticipated, a surprise team could jump into the mix. The interest in Santander has been limited enough that, despite coming off a 44-home run season, he could get squeezed. Also looking for a deal in the three-year-plus range: Jurickson Profar, who is coming off a .280/.380/.459 season that included a career-best 24 home runs.

Veteran Joc Pederson is regarded as an elite platoon option against right-handed pitching as well as a top clubhouse presence, and he’s primed to snag a multiyear deal. Among the candidates for one-year agreements: Max Kepler, Alex Verdugo, Randal Grichuk (a lefty killer), Jesse Winker, Mark Canha, Austin Hays, Manuel Margot, Ramon Laureano, and Harrison Bader and Kiké Hernandez, both of whom play center.