The wild-card round of the NFL playoffs always has surprise winners. In January 2024, the Texans rolled the Browns as 2.5-point underdogs. The Packers edged the Cowboys despite Dallas being expected to win by more than a touchdown. And the Buccaneers shocked the Eagles, even though Philadelphia was favored on the road. It happens every season.

Could we see more upsets this weekend? Let’s map out paths to victory for the six underdogs — including two division winners playing at home.

For each matchup, we pointed to two game-planning keys that could tip the scales and put Super Bowl contenders on early upset watch. We focused on personnel matchups, scheme advantages, coaching tendencies and what we see on the game tape. Here’s how each underdog can win and move onto the divisional round of the playoffs. (Game projections are via ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and lines are from ESPN BET.)

Jump to an underdog:
DEN | GB | HOU | LAR | PIT | WSH

How the Texans can upset the Chargers

Game:Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS/Paramount+)
FPI projection: LAC, 52.8% by an average of 0.9 points
ESPN BET: LAC -3 (42.5 O/U)

1. Create explosive plays off early down play-action.

The play-action pass game on first and second down must be efficient Saturday and lead to rhythm throws for C.J. Stroud. This season, Stroud has completed 31 passes of 15 or more yards on early down play-action, eighth most in the NFL. It’s a major tendency in Houston and it allows Stroud to drive the ball to intermediate windows.

On such plays, the Texans can set Stroud up to throw the deep in-breakers and over routes to wide receiver Nico Collins. And they should get the coverage look they want against the Chargers, who played two-high safety alignments on 53.5% of opponent dropbacks (fourth highest in the league). Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik has to show zone run action on first and second down and let Stroud pepper the middle of the field.

2. Lean on man coverage on third down.

The money downs are must-wins for DeMeco Ryan’s defense, and he has the personnel in the secondary to stick to the Chargers in man coverage. On third down this season, the Texans allowed a 37.8% completion rate and held opponents to a 19.5 QBR; both were the best in the league.

Cornerbacks Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter can challenge Chargers receivers Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston, and the range of safety Calen Bullock allows Houston to close the post. And when the Texans can be disruptive in man coverage and impact the timing of routes, it gives defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. more time to attack the pocket versus quarterback Justin Herbert.

How the Steelers can upset the Ravens

Game:Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
FPI projection: BAL, 72.2% by an average of 9.0 points
ESPN BET: BAL -9.5 (43.5 O/U)

1. Close the middle of the field in zone coverage on third down.

In these two teams’ first meeting of the season — an 18-16 Steelers win in Week 11 — Pittsburgh saw positive third-down results in zone coverage, with safety Minkah Fitzpatrick playing underneath as a middle-of-the-field defender. He would spin down late as a hook defender in Cover 3 or play the middle hole in two-deep looks. And Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson struggled to find throwing windows as a result, completing 1-of-6 passes against zone on third down (4.6 QBR).

To help slow Baltimore’s offense, the Steelers’ underneath defenders can get to zone depth with eyes on Jackson, while Fitzpatrick patrols the middle of the field to close interior throwing windows. It doesn’t sound complicated, but playing with zone discipline against Jackson is critical, especially when he gets to the edges of the pocket. Pittsburgh will need to win with base fundamentals in their zone-heavy scheme to get off the field on third downs.

2. Attack Cover 2 with tight end Pat Freiermuth.

Freiermuth can make an impact considering his recent uptick in target volume and the Ravens’ defensive tendencies in their two regular-season meetings. Freiermuth has only five receptions on the season against the Baltimore defense, but he has caught 15 of 17 targets over his past two games. Plus, the Ravens are going to mix their single-high and split-safety zone coverages against the Steelers. That’s where Freiermuth can be an underneath outlet/chain-mover for Russell Wilson, while also working the seams against Cover 2 and Cover 3.

Pittsburgh has to get first downs. Let’s start there. But don’t forget about Freiermuth as a middle-of-the-field stretch option for Wilson to pick up explosive plays. (As an aside, I also think adding a package of plays for backup quarterback Justin Fields could give this Steelers’ offense more juice Saturday night — and this unit needs it.)

How the Broncos can upset the Bills

Game:Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS/Paramount+)
FPI projection: BUF, 68.1% by an average of 7.1 points
ESPN BET: BUF -8.5 (46.5 O/U)

1. Steal from the Lions’ offensive game plan.

Everyone borrows in the NFL, and if I were the Broncos, I’d look very closely at the Lions’ offensive tape from Week 15 (48-42 loss to Buffalo). In that matchup, Jared Goff had seven completions of 15 or more yards against the zone-heavy Bills defense. Detroit schemed open windows off dropbacks and play-action all afternoon. And I see a lot of similarities here with Sean Payton’s system and the Broncos’ route tree.

Broncos quarterback Bo Nix has a 93.8 QBR on throws of 15 or more air yards to the middle of the field (inside the numbers), and that sets up well versus a Bills defense that played zone coverage on 68.2% of opponent dropbacks this season, fifth most in the NFL. Denver can find success by carving out voids for its rookie quarterback so he can operate as a timing and rhythm passer.

2. Scheme for receiver Marvin Mims Jr.

Payton should have a section in his call sheet that reads: Get the ball to Marvin.

Mims took on a more defined role for the Broncos late in the season, with two touchdowns in both Week 17 and Week 18. The volume is climbing, as Mims caught 17 of 19 targets over the final three games of the regular season. He gives the Broncos a vertical element in the pass game, too; he can roll. He caught four touchdowns of 20 or more yards this season, and that’s something to watch against the Bills’ zone-coverage corners.

Plus, Payton can get Mims loose on perimeter screens, unders and fly sweeps. He’s a playmaker anytime he has the ball. The point here is that the Broncos will have to manufacture some explosive plays, and Mims can do that if he gets the touches.

How the Packers can upset the Eagles

Game:Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox)
FPI projection: PHI, 51.2% by an average of 0.4 points
ESPN BET: PHI -4.5 (45.5 O/U)

1. Create misdirection in the gap run game with running back Josh Jacobs.

Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio will present both five- and six-man defensive surfaces against Matt LaFleur’s offense. This allows Philly to set hard edges against the outside run game while still covering interior gaps with an upper-tier front. However, LaFleur and the Packers can counter with backfield movement in a more gap-heavy game plan.

Backfield misdirection — before and after the snap — creates leverage issues for defenses, and LaFleur has majored in that this season. The Packers can scheme the run game to get numbers and angles on gap schemes. It’s no different than what I’ve seen as a high school coach against single- and double-wing offenses. But it could help spring Jacobs, who averaged 17.7 carries this season and scored 12 rushing TDs in the second half of the season.

2. Scheme linebacker Edgerrin Cooper as a versatile matchup player.

Green Bay should use Cooper’s speed and second-level range in multiple ways to attack the Eagles’ offense. He had 13 tackles for loss this season and can be schemed as an early down blitzer to knife into the Philly backfield. He also has the ability to play in space, so the Packers can use him as an overhang defender in sub-packages to track down the Eagles’ screens and quick-game passes off run-pass options. Plus, with Cooper’s great movement traits, he can match with quarterback Jalen Hurts as a second-level spy in obvious passing situations.

In big-game settings, I believe teams should think about the personnel first in their game plans, and Cooper’s rapid development during his rookie season really jumps here. He’s a disruptive talent who can play a key role in limiting the Eagles’ offensive playmakers. And that’s why I’d scheme for him with multiple alignments and put him in a position to make splash plays in the postseason.

How the Commanders can upset the Buccaneers

Game:Sunday, 8 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock)
FPI projection: TB, 58.3% by an average of 3.3 points
ESPN BET: TB -3 (50.5 O/U)

1. Throw leveled concepts inside.

The Buccaneers have the most zone-heavy defense in the NFL, playing it on 71.7% of opponent dropbacks. They really lean on Cover 3, specifically, using it 34.7% of the time. In these spots, Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury can set up quarterback Jayden Daniels with leveled high-to-low reads to hammer the middle of the field, getting the ball out with speed. Daniels has completed 72.3% of his passes on middle-of-the-field throws under 15 air yards. These quick-hitters — with Daniels reading the second level — work.

If the Tampa Bay linebackers play to depth? Take the sit route or the under. What if they take the bait and settle? Then Washington can rip the quick seam, in-breaker or glance route. There will be catch-and-run opportunities for receiver Terry McLaurin here, too.

Keep your eyes on the grass in the middle of the field in this game. That’s where the Commanders should try to go with the ball, as Tampa Bay has allowed 8.5 yards per attempt on throws inside the numbers.

2. Have a red zone plan for receiver Mike Evans.

Evans has 11 touchdown receptions on the season, with seven of those coming inside the red zone. Overall, he has 16 end zone targets, tied for the fifth most in the league. So from a defensive perspective, Washington knows where Tampa quarterback Baker Mayfield wants to go with the ball once the Bucs advance inside the 20-yard line. Now it just needs a matchup and scheme answer to win.

If Commanders cornerback Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) is healthy, then the Commanders have the matchup. This is why they traded for him. He’s still a Pro Bowl-caliber cover corner, and we’ve seen him compete at a very high level against Evans in the past. Match him with Evans on the perimeter and have him travel when Evans bumps inside to the slot. But I would also use a safety — especially in the low red zone — to cut/bracket Evans on any inside releases as a counter.

Winning the critical game situations is a path for Washington to pull the upset, and the red zone is a big one. The Commanders simply can’t let Evans get loose.

How the Rams can upset the Vikings

Game:Monday, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC/ESPN+)
FPI projection: MIN, 53.9% by an average of 1.2 points
ESPN BET: MIN -1 (47.5 O/U)

1. Prep for the Vikings’ defensive pressure.

We will talk about the Vikings’ pressure under coordinator Brian Flores for as long as Minnesota remains alive in the postseason. The Vikings had a blitz rate of 54.3% in the Week 18 loss to the Lions, and their season rate was a league-high 39.2%.

When these two teams met in Week 8, Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford completed nine of 12 passes for 118 yards against the blitz. The three-step pass game will always be in play against pressure with receiver Puka Nacua in the offense. Los Angeles can throw the slants and hitches based on the coverage technique (press or off).

The wide receiver screens matter, too, though. The Rams can get the ball on the perimeter with bubble and tunnel screens from condensed and wide bunch sets. And look for Rams coach Sean McVay to use both max-pro play-action and boots to give Stafford clean throwing platforms. Having answers for pressure is a must against Flores’ unit.

2. Attack the interior of the Vikings’ offensive line.

The Vikings’ interior (guard Dalton Risner, center Garrett Bradbury and guard Blake Brandel) can struggle against power, and I see tight movers in this group on the tape. This means the Rams can use more loaded fronts to force protection slides and get the schemed pass-rush matchups they really want.

Rookie defensive tackle Braden Fiske is a player to watch. He has the physical traits and strength to win defined one-on-one matchups. Fiske had 8.5 sacks and 32 pressures this season. But the Rams can also loop/stunt Jared Verse and Byron Young off the edges to attack the guards. The idea here is to create A and B gap pressure to take away the throwing platform of Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold.