There are still 12 games remaining in Week 13 of the 2024 NFL season, and we’re sure you are fully prepared for the loaded Sunday and Monday slate. But just in case you need some last-minute intel, our NFL analysts have you covered at the 11th hour.

First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down five stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in under 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday and who could be picked up and started in a jam this weekend. That’s followed by NFL analyst Matt Bowen pointing to five potential surprises and NFL analyst Ben Solak picking one team on upset watch. Finally, insider Jeremy Fowler gives the latest buzz, rumors and news you might have missed.

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Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Upset watch
Latest buzz

Walder: Five key stat trends that could determine Week 13 winners

Can the Texans play the matchups to set up WR Nico Collins for a big game?

The Jaguars have a cornerback imbalance. On the offense’s left is Tyson Campbell, who has allowed 0.9 yards per coverage snap this season (better than the 1.2 average for outside corners), per NFL Next Gen Stats. But Ronald Darby and Montaric Brown have split time on the offense’s right side. Darby’s 2.0 yards per coverage snap allowed is the worst among outside corners with at least 200 coverage snaps, and Brown is at 1.6.

Collins, meanwhile, has played 50% of his snaps this season as the wide left receiver and 32% as the wide right receiver. This week calls for switching that up. And if the Texans do so, Collins could be in position for a huge game.

Can DL Leonard Williams stay hot against the Jets?

Williams had a huge game in Seattle’s Week 12 win over the Cardinals, recording 2.5 sacks and the highest pass rush win rate at defensive tackle on the week (28%). That pushed him up to third in pass rush win rate (at 16%) at defensive tackle this season, behind only Chris Jones and Zach Allen. It’s by far the highest pass rush win rate in a season of his career (at least back to 2017, when the metric began).

On Sunday, he takes on the Jets, who drafted him with the No. 6 pick in 2015. And it should be a favorable matchup, as both Jets guards — Alijah Vera-Tucker and John Simpson — rank in the bottom 10 of pass block win rate at their position.

Can the Falcons find some luck against the Chargers?

Tom Bliss of the NFL’s analytics group creates a “luck dashboard” every year, which tabulates the win probability gained for each team through four categories: opponents’ dropped interceptions, opponents’ dropped receptions, opponents’ kicking and fumble recoveries by either team.

These events are mostly out of a team’s control but can impact its win probability. The luckiest team in the NFL this season, per Bliss’ model? The Chargers, who have been particularly fortunate in their opponents’ kicking games. And the unluckiest? The Falcons, who have been hurt by their opponents’ kicking game more than anything else. And now these two teams face off in Week 13.

This does not mean the Falcons are due for some luck. It just means that we might be overrating the Chargers and underrating the Falcons because of factors largely out of their hands.

Can the Panthers’ running game earn them an upset over the Buccaneers?

Over their past three games, the Panthers nabbed two narrow victories and lost by three points to the Chiefs. While it’s true that Bryce Young is playing better, the real efficiency has come in the running game. Since Week 9, the Panthers have recorded 0.11 EPA per designed carry, which is second best in the NFL.

But the Panthers will face a hot unit in the Buccaneers’ run defense. Though Tampa Bay is average on run defense over the season, it ranks third in EPA per designed carry allowed. The Panthers use both inside and outside zone runs at above-average rates, and the latter might be the most effective this Sunday. The Buccaneers rank 23rd in EPA allowed versus outside zone runs, and they are fourth in EPA allowed versus inside zone runs.

Do the Broncos have a punt return advantage against the Browns?

It’s not often we hit special teams here, but the Broncos have the favorable matchup there. Punt returner Marvin Mims Jr. has 77 punt return yards over expectation this season, which ranks third behind Marcus Jones (Patriots) and Kalif Raymond (Lions), per NFL Next Gen Stats. Mims also finished third in the same category last season, so we can feel solid about him being a good punt returner.

Denver’s opponent also works in Mims’ favor. The Browns have allowed 116 punt return yards over expectation, the second-highest amount by any team. Mims doesn’t have a punt return for a touchdown in his career, but it might finally happen this week.

Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you need to pick up — and can start this week

Gus Edwards, RB, Los Angeles Chargers (49.5% rostered)

With J.K. Dobbins out with a sprained MCL, Edwards will handle the bulk of the carries. Keep in mind that Dobbins has averaged 17 touches per game this season. And Edwards gets a favorable matchup against the Falcons, who have allowed nine running backs to score 15 or more fantasy points. He’s a solid play if you need running back help this week.

Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots (19.1% rostered)

Maye struggled in a tough matchup against the Dolphins in Week 12, finishing with just 13.4 fantasy points. But he has a much better matchup this week against Indianapolis. The Colts’ defense gives up the sixth-most passing yards per game and allows quarterbacks to complete 69.6% of their passes — the fourth-highest rate in the league. Maye is a solid starter in deeper leagues.

Derek Carr, QB, New Orleans Saints (15.5% rostered)

Carr scored 18 or more fantasy points in each of the two weeks before the Saints’ Week 12 bye. Now he faces a Rams defense that allows the eighth-most passing yards per game. Even without an injuredChris Olave, Carr has enough playmakers (guys such as Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Alvin Kamara) to take advantage of this matchup.

Noah Brown, WR, Washington Commanders (10.3% rostered)

Brown had a season-high 10 targets against the Cowboys last week and finished with 13.1 fantasy points. Brown leads the Commanders with 27 targets over the past four games and provides fantasy managers with a reliable floor in Week 13 against Tennessee. He has scored 11 or more fantasy points in three of his past five games. The Titans’ defense gives up the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to receivers, but Brown should have plenty of targets and remains a starting option in deeper formats.

Devaughn Vele, WR, Denver Broncos (5.5% rostered)

The rookie seventh-round pick is heating up, with a season-high nine targets and 80 receiving yards against the Raiders in Week 12. He was second in routes run and targets behind Courtland Sutton. Vele has posted at least four receptions and 10-plus fantasy points in three straight games, solidifying his role as the Broncos’ No. 2 receiver. And he now faces a Browns defense that allows the eighth-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers.

Bowen: Don’t be surprised if …

Baker Mayfield throws for three touchdowns against the Panthers

Mayfield has thrown just one touchdown pass over his past two games, but he gets a boost with the matchup versus Carolina, especially with Mike Evansback. The Panthers’ defense is allowing 7.3 yards per attempt this season (28th overall) and has given up 21 touchdown passes (tied for fourth most). It should be a good day for the Buccaneers’ passing game.

Riq Woolen intercepts Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 7, but I like Woolen to make a play on the perimeter this Sunday. Woolen, who has two interceptions and four pass breakups so far, could absolutely find the ball on a boundary throw from Rodgers. Woolen has 10 picks over 42 career games.

Nico Collins logs over 100 receiving yards against the Jaguars

Collins had 92 receiving yards against the Titans last week, and he has caught nine of 16 targets since returning from a hamstring injury. The Jaguars are giving up a league-high 278.3 passing yards per game, so look for Collins to cash in here on vertical throws and deep in-breakers that create catch-and-run opportunities.

Nik Bonitto sacks Jameis Winston

Winston has been sacked 12 times over his four starts with the Browns, and he will extend plays to his detriment. That opens the door for Bonitto. His 10 sacks are tied for the third most in the NFL, and he can add to his total in the Monday night game. His 16% pass rush win rate ranks in the top 25 leaguewide.

Marvin Harrison Jr. catches a touchdown against the Vikings

Harrison had a quiet day in the Week 12 loss to the Seahawks, catching three of six targets for only 47 yards. However, he has logged a touchdown grab in two of his past four games, and the Vikings have allowed the 12th-most passing touchdowns this season (17). I think Harrison gets one here on a slot fade in the red zone.

Solak: Favorite upset pick for Week 13

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 at Cincinnati Bengals

The Steelers lost to the Browns in a blizzard on “Thursday Night Football” in Week 12, which seems to have reminded us of something we should have never forgotten in the first place: A Mike Tomlin-coached team is always capable of losing to an inferior opponent mere days after beating a superior one. This is the balance of the universe.

The Steelers now have a critical and winnable Bengals game before their schedule gets extremely tough. The Eagles, Ravens and Chiefs are on deck in Weeks 15-17 after another Browns matchup, and Pittsburgh needs to keep pace with the Ravens atop the AFC North. The Pittsburgh offense is excellent at getting into heavy personnel, running the football and hitting play-action shots, and that’s exactly where the Bengals’ defense struggles. So long as the Steelers get enough pressure on Joe Burrow to disrupt the Bengals’ passing game, they should control this one.

Fowler: What I’m hearing as we near kickoff

Bears interim coach Thomas Brown will continue to call plays while in his new role, after Chicago fired Matt Eberflus on Friday. That’s good news for quarterback Caleb Williams, who has played better in three games with Brown as his playcaller.

I suspect Brown, the team’s former pass-game coordinator who has been promoted twice in 17 days, will get a real look at the role long term. He’s well-respected, has interviewed for several head-coaching jobs and has acquitted himself well in the process. The Bears probably will cast the expected wide net, and while an offensive mind would be helpful for Williams, experience calling plays is not a prerequisite for the job.

Kudos to Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who probably will need surgery on his AC joint injury but wants to play to try to salvage a down season. While some players might have shut it down, “that’s not really who he is,” someone with the Jaguars told me. So after a productive practice week, he’s set to play. The Jaguars are hoping they can properly protect him from taking hits on the shoulder. Jacksonville’s back-end schedule is manageable, too, so Lawrence is hoping for a mini run.

Quarterback Jameis Winston feels reenergized in Cleveland, which raises the question: Will the Browns re-sign him in the offseason as competition for Deshaun Watson? While that’s hard to answer right now, Winston told reporters that he’s open to staying with the Browns, who have improved on offense during his four-game stretch as the starter. The Browns see Winston as a good locker room presence with the talent to run Kevin Stefanski’s system.

Remember, the Browns owe Watson $92 million over the remaining two years of his contract regardless of whether he plays another down, so they will need to spend wisely for an alternative or bridge-starter option. Drafting a quarterback will most likely be on the table, too. But both sides have been happy with the Winston-Browns partnership, and perhaps that continues beyond this season.