NFL Week 12 predictions, fantasy sleepers, upset picks, buzz
We’re headed into Week 12 of the 2024 NFL season, and we’re sure you are fully prepared for the loaded slate. But just in case you need some last-minute intel, our NFL analysts have you covered at the 11th hour.
First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down five stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in under 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday and who could be picked up and started in a jam this weekend. That’s followed by NFL analyst Matt Bowen pointing to five potential surprises and NFL analyst Ben Solak picking one team on upset watch. Finally, insider Jeremy Fowler gives the latest buzz, rumors and news you might have missed.
Jump to a topic:
Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Upset watch
Latest buzz
Walder: Five key stat trends that could determine Week 12 winners
Can Rashod Bateman help deliver a win against the zone-heavy Chargers?
Bateman is amid the best season of his career, with 531 receiving yards and an encouraging 86 open score that ranks third among wide receivers in ESPN’s receiver scores. But his success has come with a dramatic split — 0.9 yards per route run versus man coverage and 2.4 against zone coverage.
Normally, this kind of man/zone split probably isn’t ideal. But the Chargers play zone 73% of the time, which is the third-highest rate in the league. I’m always a little skeptical of man/zone splits because sometimes splits just happen due to randomness. This one is extreme enough, though, that it’s worth keeping an eye on.
Will Brian Burns or Kayvon Thibodeaux win their battles with Tristan Wirfs?
Wirfs has yet again lived up to his billing as a star, as his 94% pass block win rate ranks fourth among tackles this season. But he’ll have his hands full Sunday against the Giants. Thibodeaux, likely back from a wrist injury, had a 28% pass rush win rate at edge in five games — a rate that would rank second to only Aidan Hutchinson if it qualified. Burns has played enough to qualify and has the fifth-best pass rush win rate at the position (25%).
The question is whom Wirfs will match up against. Burns mostly plays opposite the left tackle, but that was Thibodeaux’s spot when he was healthy. Either way, I’d put my money on Wirfs. In general, my belief is that an elite tackle has the upper hand against any top rusher.
How heavily will the Texans lean on the passing game against the Titans?
The Texans have really struggled to run the ball efficiently, ranking 29th in EPA per designed carry (minus-0.11). Their passing game also hasn’t lived up to the preseason hype, but it’s still dramatically more effective (0.06 EPA per play, 17th best).
I thought it was notable how heavily the Texans leaned on their passing game last week despite the Cowboys’ seasonlong problems against the run. Houston ranked third in pass rate over expectation in Week 11, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
That could have been a recognition of how poorly they’ve run the ball, or it might have something to do with Nico Collins’return to the lineup. Regardless, it made me wonder whether Houston will continue to lean on Stroud, starting this week. It would make sense; Tennessee is good at stopping the run (12th in rushing yards allowed per game).
Who will win in the trenches in the Broncos-Raiders game?
One of the accelerants of rookie Bo Nix‘s success has been excellent pass protection. The Broncos lead the NFL in pass block win rate and allowed only three first-half pressures from the Falcons last week.
Sunday will be more of a challenge, as the Raiders rank second in pass rush win rate. They are missingChristian Wilkins, but Maxx Crosby is as dangerous as ever. His 24% pass rush win rate ranks sixth at edge. Adam Butler has also stepped up with a 13% pass rush win rate that ranks sixth at defensive tackle.
Tristan H. Cockcroft discusses the rise of Bo Nix after setting personal-best records vs. the Falcons.
Can the 49ers return to the YAC to beat the Packers?
From 2018 to 2022, the 49ers ranked top 10 in percentage of receiving yards from yards after the catch (YAC) at over 50% each year. Now, they have the lowest percentage in the league (38%).
Some of that is due to the absence ofChristian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel Sr.‘s drop-off, but scheme plays a large role, too. Over time, the 49ers have reduced the rate of drags, hitches, ins and screens that their players run. The 49ers rank last in expected YAC per reception, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Short passes (5 air yards or less) to Samuel and McCaffrey have been more than effective in the past. Perhaps this 49ers team could design more YAC plays, starting this weekend against Green Bay — especially with quarterback Brock Purdy (shoulder) out.
Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you need to pick up — and can start this week
Will Dissly, TE, Los Angeles Chargers (23.5% rostered)
Dissly continues to dominate as the Chargers’ top tight end. Since their Week 5 bye, he has hit eight-plus fantasy points in four of six games, with two outings of over 16 points. He also stockpiled six or more targets in four of those games.
On Monday, he faces a Ravens defense allowing the fourth-most receiving yards to tight ends. The matchup and Dissly’s consistency make him a strong boost to a fantasy roster.
Trey Benson, RB, Arizona Cardinals (23.0% rostered)
“Bye-mageddon” is here, and managers in deeper leagues should take a look at Benson. Before the Cardinals’ Week 11 bye, he posted back-to-back games with nine or more touches and 10-plus fantasy points. Now, he gets a Seahawks defense that allows the third-most rushing yards in the league. While Benson won’t take over for James Conner, it’s possible he gets a little over 10 touches. He’s a sneaky play if you’re scrambling for options.
Theo Johnson, TE, New York Giants (8.0% rostered)
Don’t let the change at quarterback deter you from relying on Johnson in deeper leagues. Before the Week 11 bye, he had six targets in the Giants’ past two games. He scored seven or more fantasy points in each, including a solid 14.1-point performance against the Commanders.
Johnson was targeted on 17% of his routes in three straight contests, the second-highest rate on the team. And the Buccaneers’ defense allows the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends this season.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, WR, Tennessee Titans (4.1% rostered)
The Texans’ defense ranks second in run stop win rate, which means the Titans might lean on Will Levis and the passing game. Houston’s pass rush could push Levis to rely on receivers who can make plays after the catch.
That’s where Westbrook-Ikhine thrives since he leads the team in YAC over the past four weeks (87 yards). He scored 12-plus fantasy points in three of his past four games and could be a sneaky flex option this week.
Tommy DeVito, QB, New York Giants (0.5% rostered)
The Giants are rolling with DeVito after benching and subsequently releasingDaniel Jones. He showed flashes in six starts last year, including 22.5 fantasy points against the Commanders and three games with 36-plus rushing yards. Now, he faces a Buccaneers defense that’s giving up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks. With rookie Malik Nabers as his top target, DeVito could surprise in deeper leagues.
Bowen: Don’t be surprised if …
A.J. Brown logs over 100 receiving yards against the Rams
Brown has topped the 100-yard mark three times this season, and he saw 15 targets over his past two games. Against a Rams defense allowing 7.5 yards per attempt, the third most in the league, Brown has the advantage and a chance to produce Sunday night.
Fred Warner intercepts Jordan Love
Love’s 11 interceptions are tied for the most in the league, and he has thrown at least one in every start this season. Look for Warner, who has two picks on the year, to steal one here in the middle of the field as a hook defender.
Anthony Richardson runs for a touchdown against the Lions
Richardson rushed for two scores in the Week 11 win over the Jets, and he has a total of 30 rushing attempts over his past three games. Look for the Colts to use him as a ball carrier deep in the red zone, getting a numbers advantage on blockers to the play side.
Eric Karabell explains why he is not ready to trust Anthony Richardson as a fantasy quarterback.
Bo Nix throws for three touchdowns against the Raiders
Nix looks really comfortable and poised in the pocket. He’s seeing it fast, too. He has thrown for multiple touchdowns in three of his past four games. Against a Raiders defense that has given up 18 touchdown passes — tied for the seventh most in the NFL — I expect Nix to cash in.
Danielle Hunter records two sacks against the Titans
Hunter has recorded 7.5 sacks, and his 33 pressures are tied for the seventh most in the league. There are matchups here for Hunter to exploit, as the Titans have allowed 33 sacks this season.
Solak: Favorite upset pick for Week 12
Tennessee Titans (+7.5) at Houston Texans
Quietly, the Titans have been playing better as of late. Their defense remains excellent despite accumulating injuries, and their offense can be a handful with a diverse running game and improved offensive line. So long as Will Levis can avoid turnovers, Tennessee can hang with just about anyone.
Houston had a nice mouthwash game versus the Cowboys after embarrassing losses to the Jets and the Lions, but this is still far from a complete team. Injuries continue to pile up on the defensive side, as Denico Autry, Azeez Al-Shaair, Folorunso Fatukasi, Will Anderson Jr. and Derek Stingley Jr. were all either out or limited at Wednesday practice. Plus, pass protection remains a big problem. I think the Titans can keep this one close and maybe even sneak out of Houston with a big victory.
Fowler: What I’m hearing as we near kickoff
Soon-to-be free agent quarterback Daniel Jones will have interest once he clears waivers Monday at 4 p.m. ET. “There will be 6-8 teams that will need a bridge QB and be willing to give him a shot,” an AFC executive said. “Or a high-end backup if you are a Super Bowl team. The timing will be interesting. It’s late in the year, so he will need to be familiar with the offense.”
A few people around the league mentioned the Raiders as a sensible option. They have a clear need at QB, and one of the team’s quarterback coaches, Fred Walker, was Jones’ offensive coordinator at Duke. Jacksonville could have an opening if it decides to shut down Trevor Lawrence because of his shoulder injury, though Lawrence has been hoping to play at some point. Jones would be an upgrade over Mac Jones. The Cowboys have an obvious hole, but they typically aren’t aggressive in these situations. And the 49ers are a situation to watch, with Brock Purdy working through a shoulder injury and Kyle Shanahan’s affinity for mobile quarterbacks.
Stephen A. explains why the New York Giants’ mistakes led to the release of Daniel Jones.
The Buccaneers hope to get receiver Mike Evans a healthy workload Sunday but will also monitor snaps in his return from a hamstring injury. He will be out there on crucial downs, but Tampa Bay will be smart with him, too, depending on how he feels during the flow of the game. The Bucs had reduced Evans’ snaps even before the injury, as a way to keep the 31-year-old fresh. They can’t afford to lose him for multiple weeks again with a reaggravation, so hamstring fatigue will be considered.
Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels has faced back-to-back quality defenses in the Steelers and Eagles, who held him to a total of 393 yards, one touchdown pass and one interception. After talking to NFL coaches, the sense is defenses are trying to be more physical with Daniels, who is nursing a rib injury. They are also trying to blanket receiver Terry McLaurin and make Daniels beat them with targets to tight ends, running backs and the other wide receivers. So consider this a natural progression for Daniels as teams get more tape on him.
“He will adjust with no problem — he’s going to be a superstar,” said an NFL defensive coach who recently prepared for him. “Very savvy and poised.”
In New England, don’t be surprised if the Patriots expand rookie quarterback Drake Maye‘s playbook menu as he keeps improving. One way to do that — by using his legs. Maye is averaging a stellar 9.3 yards per rush, and his 28 attempts through seven appearances suggests New England could use him more in this area.