• Ben Solak, ESPNNov 26, 2024, 06:25 AM ET
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      Ben Solak joined ESPN in 2024 as a national NFL analyst. He previously covered the NFL at The Ringer, Bleeding Green Nation and The Draft Network.

Well, we are two-thirds of the way through the 2024 NFL season. It’s terrible news for my enjoyment but excellent news for my Sunday sleep schedule. The other good sleep-related news? An incoming dose of tryptophan. Everyone remember to take your turkeys out of the freezer so they have time to defrost!

Every Tuesday, I’ll spin the previous week of NFL football forward, looking at what the biggest storylines mean and what comes next. We’ll take a first look at the consequences of “Monday Night Football,” break down a major trend or two and highlight some key individual players and plays. There will be film. There will be stats (a whole section of them). And there will be fun.

This week, we look at what has gone wrong for C.J. Stroud this season, piece together the perfect NFL playoff situation and make Saquon Barkley‘s case to win MVP. Let’s jump in.

Jump to a section:
The Big Thing: What’s wrong with Stroud?
Building the ideal playoff picture
Second Take: Barkley should win MVP
Mailbag: Answering questions from … you
Next Ben Stats: Wild Week 12 stats
“Monday Night Football” spin

The Big Thing: What’s wrong with C.J. Stroud this season?

Every week, this column will kick off with one wide look at a key game, player or trend from the previous slate of NFL action. What does it mean for the rest of the season?

The Texans were supposed to take over the NFL this season. That’s what last season told us. They finished on a 7-3 run to win the AFC South and get into the playoffs. Then they ran over the Browns in their home playoff game. Stroud became the youngest quarterback to ever win a postseason game, and in that victory, the then-rookie promised us that every year would get better and better and better. It felt like Stroud would make at least the AFC Championship Game in Year 2 then maybe the Super Bowl then win the next 10 championships consecutively.

Stroud was an NFL-ready rookie who could throw punches with the best in the AFC, the next in line to challenge Patrick Mahomes and start setting records. When the Texans started loading up on talent this past offseason — trading for Stefon Diggs, signing Joe Mixon and Danielle Hunter — the hype train got predictably and understandably out of control.

The 7-5 Texans are far from a disappointment, and Stroud is far from bad. But they’re 2-4 over their past six games after Sunday’s embarrassing 32-27 home loss to the Titans, and Stroud is 25th in QBR at 51.3. Stroud threw two picks and ended the Tennessee game by taking a sack/going out of bounds for a safety. It feels like the team that was supposed to make the leap has instead taken a few stumbling steps backward.

Despite the recent rocky weeks, I’m nowhere near the panic button on Stroud. He has completed 63.1% of his throws for 2,875 yards and 14 touchdowns with nine picks. There are three key reasons that last season’s sensation feels like this season’s disappointment, and most of them are outside of Stroud’s control. There’s plenty he can do better as a young passer, and he will. But when I watch the Texans’ offense, this is what I see:

A change in opponents’ defensive approach

In 2023, Stroud was at the helm of a Texans offense run by first-time coordinator Bobby Slowik. We didn’t know what was going to happen, and the rest of the league didn’t, either. The Texans ran a lot of the Shanahan-tree hits. They got under center, ran the football a bunch and looked for deep play-action shots behind the run. As such, Stroud saw a lot of Cover 3 — on 34.8% of his dropbacks, to be exact. The Shanahan offense wants you in Cover 3; it was built to beat that defense. Once Stroud emerged as an aggressive and accurate middle-of-the-field passer, the Texans started to shred opponents with all of the classics we know from the 49ers’ offense, including deep crossing patterns and in-breaking routes behind bamboozled linebackers.

In 2024, defenses said no more. They are playing Cover 3 on 26.6% of Stroud’s dropbacks, robbing him of the single-high looks he ripped up last season. In their place, opposing defenses have dialed up the two-high; they’re playing Cover 2 on twice as many dropbacks this season (20% of the time) as they did last season. Similarly, Stroud saw base defense on 27.9% of his dropbacks in 2023, and now he sees it on only 21.6% of them.

This is not a structural response to a change in the Texans’ passing attack. Houston is running play-action at the same rate as it did last season and dropping back from the shotgun just about as much as it did a season ago. The Texans, with the addition of Mixon in the backfield, are even better running the football than they were last season, but that probably has something to do with the lighter box counts, as well.

Last season, defenses were largely playing Stroud like a rookie quarterback. This season, they’re playing him more like an elite quarterback — and Stroud is still learning how to deal with that. The big plays are still there despite the two-high deployment (17.5% of his passes were explosive in 2023, and 15.8% are this season), but the down-to-down success rate has taken a hit, dropping from 47.6% to 42.5%. That’s the difference between 10th last season and 26th today.

Does this mean that Stroud’s 2023 season was a mirage? Was he a schemed-up QB with puffed-up numbers? Absolutely not. The dude shredded then, and he shreds now. Stroud still has all the arm talent, the ability to throw on move, the tight-window accuracy and the downfield ball placement that he had in 2023. To illustrate: His touchdown throw to Nico Collins against the end line between three defenders was a sight to see.

It’s just harder than it was last season because Stroud is now getting star treatment. This is something he’ll have to grow through, just as Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow all did when defenses started catering to their particular games. And Stroud will be all the better for it once he does.

Bad interceptions (and bad interception luck)

Stroud has thrown some gnarly interceptions this season. The one in the end zone against the Lions that galvanized the Detroit comeback was rough, and he sailed a bad one against the Cowboys early in that game, as well. His second pick against the Titans was another rough one; it seemed like he completely disregarded the underneath defender and got punished accordingly.

If it appears like these interceptions have come out of nowhere, well, they have and they haven’t. Stroud threw only five interceptions last season. His interception rate of 1.0% was one of the best in the game and absurdly low for a rookie passer who started the entire season. This season, he has thrown nine for an INT rate of 2.3%.

Nobody likes when the interception rate doubles, but it’s just about average for the league this season, so it’s not like Stroud is handing the ball away at an egregious clip. Nor is Stroud putting the ball in harm’s way at an egregious clip. His turnover-worthy play rate is 2.8%, which is exactly what it was last season. It’s easy to forget in all the rookie hype but he got away with a lot of window-testing last season. This season, he’s just regressing back to the mean.

Take as an example his first interception against the Titans. On this play, Stroud and wide receiver John Metchie III have a disagreement on where Metchie’s route should break. Stroud tries to pull him downfield, whereas Metchie stays rooted to the spot.

This is a mundane miscommunication; it does not mean Stroud is hitting some sort of enormous sophomore wall that he will never overcome. This sort of play happens all the time but usually falls incomplete. The Texans caught a bad roll of the dice, and it ended in a pick.

I’m not going to get too worked up over interception rate, especially when it’s mostly just a meteoric 2023 season crashing back down to earth. Stroud is an aggressive pocket passer who gives his receivers chances to make big plays. Many of his best throws wouldn’t be attempted by a quarterback fearful of throwing a pick. You have to die by the sword every so often when you live by it.

Pass protection that can’t hold up

It’s no secret that the Texans are suffering in pass protection this season. Stroud has a pressure rate of 41%, which is the fourth highest in the NFL. Of the five quarterbacks who have been pressured on at least 40% of their dropbacks (Stroud, Anthony Richardson, Will Levis, Jacoby Brissett and Deshaun Watson), Stroud has by far the best overall expected points added (EPA) per dropback and success rate. He is the only guy who’s even kind of making it work.

A high pressure rate can often tell you as much about a quarterback as it does an offensive line, though. Quarterbacks who hold onto the ball for too long and don’t know how to find their checkdowns invite pressure. But Stroud’s time to pressure is 2.54 seconds, the sixth-fastest number in the league. Stroud has been pressured in under 2.5 seconds 96 times this season, which is the most in the NFL and 18 more quick pressures than he saw last season (on about 90 fewer dropbacks).

So, it’s not just that the Texans’ offensive line is losing a lot. It’s that the O-line is losing a lot and losing fast. Poor line play is the primary culprit. Quick pressure typically comes from the interior, and guard performance has been a big issue for Houston all season. Left guard Kenyon Green was a target of defensive coordinators before he was lost for the season due to a shoulder injury, and 31-year-old right guard Shaq Mason is showing his age.

But some of the issues are structural too. Slowik is a chip off the old Shanahan block, and the Shanahan offense is notorious for having a small menu of protection rules and an exploitable lack of checks and adjustments at the line of scrimmage. Here’s a nice example. The Titans present a five-man surface on this third-and-9 play. The player over the right guard is Kenneth Murray Jr., who is technically an off-ball linebacker. But because he has stepped right up to the line of scrimmage, you’d like to be able to set this protection with the five offensive linemen each taking the down defensive player opposite them.

Instead, because the Texans don’t change the protection call at the line of scrimmage and stay in their called slide protection, the running back is left to step up onto Murray. Sometimes, backs have to take a linebacker one-on-one in pass protection, so this isn’t that wild. But because Murray is already up at the line of scrimmage, he already has broken the shape of the pocket before the back can get to him. Stroud is immediately forced to reset in the pocket, which throws off the timing and accuracy of the throw.

This is the sort of thing Houston could clean up schematically by giving either center Jarrett Patterson (who is in for Juice Scruggs, who has moved to left guard) or Stroud more control at the line of scrimmage. But the team can’t just do that overnight; it has to be added to the playbook, installed in camp and practiced rep after rep after rep after rep. You can be certain that a revamped approach to protection (both via personnel and schematically) will be a focus of the Texans’ 2025 offseason. But the issues in 2024 won’t disappear anytime soon.

The ideal playoff picture: Who should be in?

It’s that time of the year! The weather is starting to bite, I have a turkey defrosting in my fridge and I’m starting to mess around on playoff simulators. With only six weeks left in the regular season, conference seeding, divisional clinches and wild-card races are starting to come into focus. And this season feels particularly confusing. I still don’t know who’s coming out of the NFC South or NFC West. The bottom of the AFC wild-card picture is crowded. Home-field advantage and the precious first-round byes are very much up for grabs. Here’s the playoff bracket and matchups I’d love to see when it’s all said and done, along with each team’s projected chances to make the playoffs from ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI).

NFC

1. Detroit Lions
Projected playoff chances: 99%

2. Philadelphia Eagles
Projected playoff chances: 99%

In the two-team race for the top seed in the NFC, I’m giving the edge to the Lions. This Detroit offense is a sight to be seen when it’s operating on all cylinders, and one of the few things that can knock it off its game is Jared Goff in the cold. A late-January game at Lincoln Financial Field would be an enormous boon to the Eagles and potentially too much for the injury-riddled Lions to overcome.

That’s not to say it’s a fair fight in Detroit, as the Lions would have a huge advantage at Ford Field given the way that crowd will turn out for more Detroit playoff football. I just don’t want to see this Lions season ended by a snowstorm.

3. Seattle Seahawks
Projected playoff chances: 30%

In the beehive that is the NFC West, I find myself leaning toward the Seahawks. I have seen plenty of Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan in the playoffs, so give me the underrated Geno Smith, a great young coach in Mike Macdonald and an improving Seattle defense. And give me a home playoff game at Lumen Field.

I’d to see the Cardinals here too, as playoff experience is great for young teams. The FPI’s projections give the Cardinals a 49% chance to win the division (53% to make the playoffs) relative to the Seahawks’ 25% chance, but we won’t really know anything about that tiebreaker until the two teams face off once again in Week 14.

But man, was that Seahawks defense something to see against Arizona. Seattle’s line dominated a good Cardinals group, with Leonard Williams (last year’s deadline add) delivering his best Seahawks performance to date. Ernest Jones IV (this year’s big deadline addition) was lights out between the tackles, and nickel Devon Witherspoon was excellent into the boundary. Seattle’s defense had messy, messy metrics to start the season given a weird schedule of soft quarterbacks and a bad run with injuries, but when it is healthy, it is the sort of unit that can win a playoff game.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected playoff chances: 45%

This Bucs team is so much cooler than the Falcons team that currently leads the division (by only one game). Anyone who wants to watch Kirk Cousins heave contested curl routes for 60 minutes can have it. Instead, give me Baker Mayfield throwing blocks 50 yards downfield.

5. Minnesota Vikings
Projected playoff chances: 99%

This is a good team, and I would love to see the Vikings draw the Lions for a third game. Minnesota should be favored against whomever comes out of the NFC South.

6. Green Bay Packers
Projected playoff chances: 97%

I am very suspicious of this Packers defense and totally enamored with this Packers offense. That makes for an ideal No. 6 seed.

7. Washington Commanders
Projected playoff chances: 71%

Of the remaining potential wild-card teams — Commanders, Falcons, Rams, 49ers and Cardinals — I feel Washington is the best viewing option. Presumably, Jayden Daniels will be better the further he is from his rib injury, and I would like to watch him get a third crack against Vic Fangio and the Eagles. That sort of environment — an elite defense, playoff football and on the road against a divisional rival — can only be good for the development of a young star.

AFC

1. Buffalo Bills
Projected playoff chances: 99%

Wouldn’t it be so fun to watch the playoffs go through Buffalo? I’m a sucker for snow games (my Goff concerns notwithstanding), and I want some more. Imagine watching Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen eluding tacklers in four inches of fresh powder with the Super Bowl on the line. That’s the good stuff. But also, the Bills deserve it. They beat the Chiefs, and the Chiefs should still lose a couple of games the rest of the way (key word: should).

2. Kansas City Chiefs
Projected playoff chances: 99%

Nothing more to say here about the two-time defending Super Bowl champs. I’m just excited to see what this teams looks like with Isiah Pacheco (fibula) back.

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Rex Ryan: The Chiefs aren’t as good as their record says

Rex Ryan explains why he isn’t buying the Chiefs despite the fact that they have only one loss this season.

3. Baltimore Ravens
Projected playoff chances: 99%

I still like the Ravens to win the division (45% by the FPI) over the Steelers (54%), but it is getting dicey given the Steelers’ head-to-head victory and a half-game lead. The Ravens do have a higher potential for making a deep postseason run than the Steelers, and a home playoff game will help that, but there is work to do on the defense.

If the Chiefs and Ravens get the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds, we are surely going to get a divisional rematch at Arrowhead Stadium of the Week 1 game that ended with Isaiah Likely‘s toe slightly out of bounds. Please, and thank you.

4. Houston Texans
Projected playoff chances: 93%

The Texans are still heavily favored to win the AFC South, but the loss to the Titans revealed the weaknesses in this Texans team and left a little crack in the door for the Colts to sneak in. I still think “C.J. Stroud looking downfield for Nico Collins … and he has it!” is more entertaining than anything the Colts have going on, but this is not the same Houston squad that embarrassed the Browns in the postseason last season. There’s work to be done.

5. Los Angeles Chargers
Projected playoff chances: 92%

The Chargers are a great team; they’re just stuck in the Chiefs’ division. It sure would be nice to get Justin Herbert a playoff win, and this might finally be the year for it.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected playoff chances: 95%

The most important thing in the Steelers-Ravens race for the AFC North is that we get a third matchup between them in the first round of the playoffs. We need that to introduce a little more AFC North chaos into our lives.

7. Denver Broncos
Projected playoff chances: 63%

Beyond the Broncos, the other teams in the hunt are the Colts (23%), Dolphins (20%) and Bengals (13%). But I would love to see the Broncos’ defense in the postseason, and the experience would be great for a rookie passer in Bo Nix. I also wouldn’t count out coach Sean Payton, who is scheming on another level this season, from upsetting the Chiefs or any other No. 2 seed that Denver draws. The Broncos have Cleveland (not as easy of an opponent as it might seem) and the bye before a Week 15 game against Indianapolis that will be huge for their wild-card hopes.

With that said, I increasingly find myself believing in the 5-6 Dolphins. That defense isn’t as sexy as the Broncos’ unit (fewer blitzes, fewer star players), but it has been just as good in recent weeks. The emergence of Jonnu Smith and the return to health for Tua Tagovailoa has brought the offense right back to the levels we expect of Mike McDaniel’s group. The Dolphins’ record is bad against top teams, so I don’t think they’d make a big run, but I have my eyes out for a postseason push.

The Bengals’ defense isn’t good enough, and the Colts are just never consistent enough overall (but Indianapolis does have an outside shot at a divisional title).

Second Take: Saquon Barkley should win MVP

ESPN’s “First Take” is known for, well, providing the first take on things — the instant reactions. Second Take is not a place for instant reactions but rather the spot where I’ll let the dust settle before taking perhaps a bit of a contrarian view.

I would love to argue Barkley for MVP by just saying “Well, watch the Eagles. They’re way better on offense this season than they were in 2023, and Barkley is clearly the biggest difference. He consistently makes big plays for them early on and closes out games late in spectacular, no-doubter fashion. They are a very good team, and he is the keystone of the offense; ergo, he has an MVP case.” (Mostly, I’d just like to say “ergo,” but that’s not important right now.)

However, there is no good way to make the case for a running back as an MVP without addressing the current state of running back discourse. For the past several years, improved data has brought into clarity the value of the running game and the RB position within it. The league has accepted that new wisdom and has largely devalued the position in salary cap space and draft capital. So, we have to start there.

The NFL is paying running backs less and less. We can use the value of the franchise tag as a proxy for the league’s investment in the top guys, as the tag number is calculated by averaging the top five salaries at the position. Notice how the value of the tag goes up for every position as bigger and bigger deals are signed every year. And with a ballooning cap in recent years, most positions have set new records for franchise tag values. The only exception to the rule is running back. In the late 2010s and into the 2020s, teams stopped paying top running backs ever larger contracts.

Why the dip? The league was getting a lot smarter about how running backs worked. Running backs tend to have a much earlier age cliff than other positions, such as wide receiver or offensive tackle, where players can be much more successful as they enter their 30s and beyond. Top three-down backs touch the ball at least 100 times more per season than top receivers, and far more running back touches end with a punishing hit from a linebacker than receiver touches. The attrition on the body of the running back accumulates, and ability starts to drain. Paying a 27-year-old running back is far riskier than paying a 27-year-old receiver, in terms of expected effective years remaining.

Running backs also are responsible for a smaller portion of their success than you might expect. Because good running plays are first predicated on successful blocking along the offensive line, a great back can still get bogged down in a poor run offense. So, when allocating cap dollars in the pursuit of a strong running game, teams have taken money away from running backs to give it to tackles, guards and centers. Then they have drafted backs on cheap rookie contracts about whom they would have no concerns for the age cliff and would have expected success behind those strong O-lines.

This created a self-fulfilling prophecy: Backs on rookie contracts get overworked, and when it comes time for them to cash in during free agency, their teams are reluctant to pay a running back with that much wear on his tires — especially when they can just draft another replacement.

And on the topic of the running game, it is just not as valuable as the passing game. With everything else equal, we expect a dropback to generate more yardage, more first downs, more explosive plays and more plays of a positive expected value than a handoff. Passing has gotten easier in the NFL as a result of rule changes, college schemes and better developmental systems. It is, without question, a passing league.

So yes, the league stopped paying top running backs. Jonathan Taylor held out from the Colts then signed a smaller deal than he was hoping to get. Josh Jacobs played on his franchise tag with the Raiders then hit free agency to go to Green Bay. Barkley did the same thing with the Giants.

While that was happening, another idea came about — that running backs and the running game just didn’t matter at all. The thought was that the passing game would continue getting more and more efficient, all while the running game would continue to matter less and less; that high school athletes would play any position besides running back to avoid the deflated market; that teams would never take running backs early in the first round again. We made the mistake from the outside that we always make from the outside — that the arrow currently pointing up would keep pointing up forever and that the arrow pointing down would keep pointing down forever.

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9:54
Should Saquon Barkley be the MVP front-runner?

Stephen A. Smith, Damien Woody and Tedy Bruschi debate whether Saquon Barkley is the MVP front-runner.

The idea that Barkley’s success in Philadelphia (and Derrick Henry‘s success in Baltimore, and Jacobs’ success in Green Bay) should herald some new revolution in our understanding of the running back position is just an overcorrection to our first overreaction — that the RB position was dead and would never resurrect. Barkley has always, in every moment of his college and NFL careers, been a preposterously good football player. But the question becomes whether having a preposterously good football play at that position matters. Does it turn losses into wins? Does it transform a good offense into a great one? Does it maximize the other good players on the roster?

The answer is obviously yes. Even as the value of the back fell on the franchise tag, it didn’t change the ultimate reality of football: You’re going to have to run the football for a pretty substantial portion of the game, and you’d sure like the player doing it to be good at it.

This brings us to Barkley — who has 1,649 yards and 12 TDs from scrimmage — and his MVP case.

If Most Valuable Player actually means “most valuable,” then it’s impossible for anyone but a quarterback to win the award. The general rule of thumb is that the quarterback is the most important player on the field, and the best quarterbacks are the ones carrying their teams. An elite quarterback can carry an average supporting cast a lot further than an elite running back can (see: Mahomes, Patrick), just as a bad quarterback limits the team a lot more than a bad running back does. That’s why we pay quarterbacks more.

But with Barkley’s MVP case, we’re acting like running back is the only position that gets help from the supporting cast. Of course, Barkley is more productive in Philadelphia than he was in New York. The Eagles’ offensive line and passing game are better, so teams can’t silo in on stopping Barkley on the ground without getting punished through the air.

But Mahomes himself is far less productive this season than he was in past campaigns because his supporting cast is worse. I’ve watched Justin Herbert waste away on some of the worst Chargers offenses we’ve ever seen for years without a whisper of his name in the MVP conversation despite the fact that he is one of the five best quarterbacks in football. (That is not a hot take!) There isn’t an MVP in NFL history who wasn’t lifted up by the quality of his offensive line, playcaller, receivers and/or running backs. We think that we have an adequate understanding of how a supporting environment helps running backs when compared to quarterbacks, but I’m not sure we do.

It’s hard to take things in degrees, and it is hard to isolate things on a football field. Barkley has produced more in Philadelphia than he did in New York, but is that 100 percent because of the better environment? Barkley has been better in Philadelphia than his predecessor D’Andre Swift, but is that 100 percent because of Barkley’s talent? Jalen Hurts is running the ball better this season, but is that a factor of Barkley’s success or a product of it? There are two new starters on the offensive line (Cam Jurgens and Mekhi Becton); do they look great because Barkley is great or is Barkley looking great because they’re great? Is the dip in the running back market finished or is this just a spike year before the inevitable downturn resumes?

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1:12
Damien Woody: Saquon Barkley is the MVP right now

Damien Woody and Rex Ryan break down Saquon Barkley’s MVP chances after a stellar performance vs. the Rams.

Anyone telling you any answer with total certainty is lying to you. But here’s what we know for sure: Barkley is tremendous. He’s such a good running back. He just ran for 255 yards against the Rams, setting an Eagles franchise record. He is leading the league in rushing EPA, explosive runs, runs with at least 5 yards over expectation (per NFL Next Gen Stats) and runs with at least 10 yards over expectation. He is averaging 126.5 rushing yards per game, which would be the 11th-best season ever, and he registers 6.2 yards per carry. Only seven backs have ever cleared 6.0 yards per carry in a season with at least 200 carries, and Barkley is trying to be the eighth.

Because he is so stinkin’ good, the Eagles’ offense feels less stoppable than ever before. Barkley has helped maximize a great line and a good running QB in Hurts. Barkley has turned minus-2-yard runs into 5-yard gains and 7-yard gains into 70-yard house calls. The fourth-quarter 12-10 lead against the Commanders became a 29-10 advantage following two 20-plus-yard touchdown runs from Barkley. A 65-yard scoring run by Barkley in the fourth quarter against the Saints got the Eagles’ offense on the board in a game Philly eventually stole. Overall, he has put points on the scoreboard and check marks in the win column.

As such, Barkley is a deserving MVP candidate. Of course, it’s true that the Eagles would be worse without Hurts or A.J. Brown or Lane Johnson. And of course, it’s true that Barkley’s contract amounts to a fraction of what Hurts does. But in 2024, with what he has done for the Eagles’ offense, Barkley should have his name up there with Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen for the award.

When I really sit down and think it out, I admit Jackson is more valuable to the Ravens’ offense than Barkley has been to the Eagles’ offense, and I’d probably cast my vote for the star Baltimore quarterback at this stage. But we don’t need Barkley to win the award to accept what his season has taught us about the position and its value in the league.

From y’all

The best part of writing this column is hearing from all of you. Hit me on X (@BenjaminSolak) or by email (benjamin.solak@espn.com) anytime — but especially on Monday each week — to ask a question and potentially get it answered here.

From Aariv:“Is Bryce Young really managing to turn it around, or are our expectations so low that average play feels like a massive breakthrough?”

This was, without question, the best game of Young’s NFL career. It was the first game that really made me feel like he might have an NFL future — more than the Packers game from last season, more than the few games before this Chiefs contest. This one was legit.

I have something really cool to show on Young. Here’s a play from his opening game against the Saints — a play that I put in my column when doing the QB panic meter off Week 1.

This is what I wrote about the play at the time: “Young has yet to prove he is capable of making plays from NFL pockets. In order to throw the ball to any intermediate or downfield route, a quarterback must be comfortable stepping up in tighter pockets and delivering throws over offensive linemen. For whatever reason, Young cannot and will not do this. I believe it is a product of his 5-foot-10 height (it’s hard for him to see and deliver throws over linemen who are 7-plus inches taller than him) and his 204-pound weight (he takes particularly punishing blows when hit in the pocket). But you just have to be able to make throws like this one in the NFL. This is the first play of the game, receiver Diontae Johnson has inside leverage, and there is no sinking linebacker. Ripping a five-step in-cut off under-center play-action is a fundamental skill for an NFL quarterback, and Young sails this into a pick, his first of two on the day.”

Now, here is Young’s second dropback of the game against the Chiefs. It’s from the gun, but the center snaps the ball a little early, and the protection gets a little wonky as a result. Young’s running back is getting dumped into his lap, but Young wants an intermediate in-breaking route to David Moore. It’s a good read, as defensive end George Karlaftis is the one sinking into the window. Young holds his water and delivers an accurate throw over Karlaftis despite the muddy pocket.

This is exactly the sort of play that Young was not making early in his career that he must now make to revive it: accurate, first-read throws from imperfect pockets. I don’t need him to become a magical playmaker on the hoof or perfect downfield thrower. I’m not sure either of those are in the cards, and I don’t think he’ll ever reach the level of play you’d hope for a first overall pick. But if he can just do this — hang in the pocket and give his receivers chances — then he can execute in an NFL offense.

So right now, we’re in the latter stage of Aariv’s question, sizing up whether our expectations are so low that average play feels like a massive breakthrough. But that doesn’t change the fact that Young was good against the Chiefs. He hit throw after throw after throw in the intermediate and deep areas of the field by reading out blitzes and throwing catchable footballs into tight windows. It won’t always look that good, considering the Panthers made a lot of tough catches and the Chiefs’ pass rush is worryingly toothless right now. But it is a path forward.

If Young plays every remaining game this season just as he played against the Chiefs, yeah, give him the job in 2025. The much more likely outcome is that the Panthers’ 2025 quarterback room is a competition between Young and another potential starter (Daniel Jones? Sam Darnold again? A rookie?). Let’s wait and see Young do this a few more times before we make any personnel decisions, though.

From Will:“Do we have a problem in the league with (defensive-minded) coaches trying to coach the unorthodox special out of QBs? Thinking specifically about Caleb Williams and how robotic he looked before this OC change and how Thomas Brown has said “Go be Superman” the past two weeks and he has looked worlds better. Other examples could be guys like Sam Darnold and even Justin Herbert, who are playing more free this year?”

I think this is a great question when it comes to Williams, who absolutely is playing more free under Brown than he did under Shane Waldron. We’re also seeing a similar calculus underway in other spots with young quarterbacks. Patriots coach Jerod Mayo spoke this week about calibrating how often and how easily Drake Maye tucks and runs, saying “Our message to Drake — and we’ve had multiple conversations about this — is to maintain being a quarterback as long as possible, and that’s what we expect.”

I’m not sure this is totally the result of a defensive-minded head coach. Dan Quinn hasn’t taken this path at all in Washington with Jayden Daniels, while Shane Steichen and his offensive background have seemingly worked really hard at making Anthony Richardson a traditional dropback passer.

The thing about the “unorthodox special” is that it can evaporate. If Williams had missed any one of his five or so heroic throws Sunday — a very likely thing to happen, given the degree of difficulty on each — the Bears wouldn’t have even had a chance to win the game late. What happens when your offense is built on unorthodox special, and suddenly your quarterback twists an ankle and is less than 100 percent for the rest of the season? Or he gets a rib injury that lingers? (Random example, of course.)

If you can be orthodox special — just dominant from the pocket, making quick reads and delivering accurate footballs — you can beat just about anyone, and you can do it when you’re limited, too. So coaches pull their quarterbacks that direction. The challenge with young passers is figuring out how much of a leash to give them and where to put the guardrails up. It’s a finicky calculus, but that’s why the coaches make the money.

From Octavius:“Will anyone volunteer for a ‘Hard Knocks: Offseason’ again?”

Absolutely not.

From Sean:“Morning dude, how good or bad are the Chiefs at offensive tackle at the moment?”

Morning, Sean. Really, really bad. But they’re also bad at defensive end, at corner opposite Trent McDuffie and at wide receiver. So it’s fine.

Next Ben Stats

NFL Next Gen Stats are unique and insightful nuggets of data that are gleaned from tracking chips and massive databases. Next Ben Stats are usually numbers I made up. Both are below.

13-0: That’s the Chiefs’ record in their past 13 one-score games. It is tied for the best streak in NFL history, per the Elias Sports Bureau.

The Chiefs won another one-score matchup with a last-second field goal in Week 12 — though, in that it was against the Panthers, it does feel a little worrisome. They have won two games by double digits this season, and they lost their game against the Bills by nine points. Other than that, the Chiefs have played and won eight one-score games. Those include an overtime win over the Buccaneers, a last-second field goal block against the Broncos, late game-winning drives against the Bengals and the Panthers, and opposing game-winning drives denied against the Ravens and the Falcons.

The degree to which this one-score success is a feature or a bug is up for debate. The Chiefs certainly would like to win every game by 40 points, as that dominance would create internal confidence and external hype — but they just aren’t capable of that. Their passing game is not good enough. They allow too much pressure, especially off the left tackle, and they have little-to-no juice at wide receiver to create big plays.

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Belichick explains how Chiefs prepare for close games

Bill Belichick talks to Pat McAfee about the Chiefs’ situational football tactics in close games.

As such, the Chiefs have wisely turned into the skid. They intentionally take the air out of the football, playing for hypermethodical drives that bleed clock. No other team would be able to do this, but because Patrick Mahomes is so heroically good on third down — the Chiefs are converting 52.7% of their third downs, the third-best season this century — the Chiefs can play this way. And I imagine it will prepare them well for playoff football, when we expect games to be extremely close and late-game situations to matter more than ever. They’ve been in those tight spots before, and they know how to wriggle their way out.

The one-score success hasn’t only been a product of the offense, though. The defense has been one of the best units in football to start the season, but some of the personnel deficiencies are starting to show. When cornerback Jaylen Watson was healthy, the Chiefs were surrendering minus-0.05 EPA per dropback; since he went down after Week 7 with a leg injury, that number has leapt to 0.20. That’s a huge change. Opposing quarterbacks are picking on backup cornerback Nazeeh Johnson, who is allowing 0.10 EPA per target (Watson was at minus-0.31). The Panthers also ran the ball on the Chiefs for 0.31 EPA per rush, the best number anyone has achieved against them all season.

The defense’s ascension from a generally plucky Steve Spagnuolo unit to bona fide top-five unit has been an enormous part of its late-game success. If regression hits that defense, I’m not sure the Chiefs will win their 14th one-score contest. (Who am I kidding? Of course they will.)

37: That’s how many dropbacks Tua Tagovailoa had against base defense in the past three weeks. He had seven before that all season.

Base defense is an easy thing to define on a broad scale — only four defensive backs on the field — but it can get tricky in specific cases. Tagovailoa had 16 dropbacks against base defense when he played the Patriots this past Sunday, but that’s because Marte Mapu is considered a linebacker despite the fact that he lines up as a safety. (The Patriots’ defense is very confusing.)

Since fullback Alec Ingold got hurt, the Dolphins have moved away from two-back sets and toward two-tight end sets. Julian Hill and Durham Smythe have seen their snap counts jump in recent weeks, but they’re both playing second fiddle to Jonnu Smith, who caught nine passes for 87 yards against the Pats one week after catching six for 101 yards against the Raiders. That’s the best two-game stretch of the tight end’s career.

While defenses were willing to play lighter personnel against Ingold (and suffered in the running game, accordingly), they’re now giving more four-defensive back packages to the two- and even three-TE sets they’re facing from Miami. Smith is finding a ton of success after the catch, as there are fewer players on the field with his speed. And it isn’t just easier for Smith; Jaylen Waddle had an explosive game in large part because there are fewer defensive back bodies out there to match the speedy Dolphins receiver.

Tagovailoa has had success rates of 58%, 56% and 50% in his past three weeks against base defenses, along with explosive pass rates of 17%, 22% and 25%. The Dolphins have found a new approach to personnel that’s making the easy buttons easy again, and Tagovailoa is right back to his world-beating efficiency of past seasons.

21.7%: That’s the pressure rate of Dolphins rookie Chop Robinson since their Week 6 bye. Only Danielle Hunter‘s rate is better during that time frame.

I thought the knee injury to Jaelan Phillips would hamstring this Dolphins defense. The excellent young defensive end went down in Week 4, and the Dolphins signed Tyus Bowser (who knows the defense from his time in Baltimore) and ratcheted up Robinson’s snap counts. I thought the already thin pass rush losing its ace would lead the stingy Dolphins defense to collapse.

Well, Robinson has been on a tear on the increased snap counts, as his pressure rate leaped from 15.3% to 21.7%. Robinson waxed the Patriots’ backup right tackle Demontrey Jacobs with quickness and effort en route to eight quarterback pressures, but that’s not what stands out most about Sunday’s film; it’s the fact that Robinson was the focal point of defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver’s designs. Weaver regularly skewed the front for Robinson, putting both defensive tackles on the other side of the center in clear passing situations to ensure that Robinson was given a one-on-one with Jacobs. The Dolphins aren’t treating Robinson like a first-round developmental prospect. They are treating him as an NFL-ready player — and he’s delivering.

This season, Robinson has an average get-off speed of 0.78 seconds — much faster than the league average of 0.94 seconds — and 19 quick pressures, which is tied with Chris Jones for the eighth most in the NFL. Simply put, he isn’t just winning — he’s winning fast. The Dolphins have gotten him in exactly the sort of role that maximizes his first-step quickness and snap jumping, as he aligns wider than their other defensive ends and wins races to the corner.

The Dolphins nailed the Robinson pick (21st overall this past April), and his immediate success is filling a huge void in their defense. This week, a stiffer test comes: Zach Tom, Jordan Love and the Packers’ offensive line are on deck.

7.3%: That’s the chance the Colts have of catching the Texans and winning the AFC South, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index projections.

The Colts are 5-7 and the Texans are 7-5. The Texans have the tiebreaker over the Colts, as they’ve beaten them twice. But the Texans have also lost four of their past six games, including an embarrassing Week 12 defeat to the Titans and a prime-time loss to the Jets that looks worse with every passing week. Standout nickel Jalen Pitre is out for the next few weeks with a shoulder injury, and the return of Nico Collins is helping but not saving the passing game.

The Texans also have one of the hardest schedules remaining. After a home game against the Jaguars this week and a bye the following one, they’ll play against Miami, at Kansas City, against Baltimore and then at Tennessee — yes, against the same Titans team that just beat them. Meanwhile, the Colts have the second-easiest schedule remaining: at New England, bye, at Denver, home against Tennessee, at the Giants and home against Jaguars.

The Colts are dealing with injuries of their own; that O-line is pretty banged up, and wide receiver Josh Downs (shoulder) is now week-to-week. But they played the Lions much closer than the scoreboard would indicate, as penalties, drops and other miscues hammered the offense.

I’ve long been a Texans believer, and I wasn’t all the way there on the preseason hype for the Colts. But this division is far from decided. If the Colts can leave that Broncos game at 7-7, they’d be right in this playoff hunt — both through the wild card and in the division.

‘Monday Night Fourth-and-Gos’

Each week, we will pick out one or two of the biggest storylines from “Monday Night Football” and break down what it means for the rest of the season.

A common lament of the analytics nerds (of which I am proudly one) is that nobody champions the fourth-down tries that work; we only lament and debate the ones that fail.

So let’s review the Ravens’ fourth-down calls Monday night against the Chargers. Late in the second half, the Ravens were trailing 10-7 and faced a fourth-and-1 (but probably a little less than one full yard) from their own 16-yard line. Everyone seemed astonished that the Ravens went for it, but this was a clear “go” on the NFL Next Gen Stats model — an increase in win probability of 3.4%. The Ravens converted, and five plays later, they took the lead with a beautiful 40-yard touchdown throw to Rashod Bateman.

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Ravens convert a risky 4th down late in the 1st half

The Ravens go for it on fourth down deep in their own territory and move the chains to keep the drive going.

The recommendation to go in this situation is largely a function of the distance to the first down. You get this first down remarkably more often than you don’t, and Next Gen Stats had it around a 70% conversion rate. Of course, if Baltimore doesn’t convert, the Chargers will almost certainly score from the 16. But if it punts the ball away, it is giving the Chargers and their three timeouts a prime two-minute drill opportunity, and they’re likely to score in that environment, too. Plus, on the 16, the Ravens have a great chance of getting the ball back with some time on the clock to score themselves if they don’t convert.

It’s surprising but not wild to go for that fourth down. I went and checked recent fourth-down attempts, and what do you know? The Ravens went for a Charlie KolarQB sneak on fourth-and-1 from their own 23 against the Bengals less than two months ago. There was 1:54 left in the second quarter for that one, in a game the Ravens were leading 14-9. The sneak tonight wasn’t about the score deficit or the brotherly rivalry; it was about a smart team doing a smart thing.

The Ravens converted their other two fourth-down attempts in this game: a fourth-and-1 run on their own 39 and another fourth-and-1 run on the Chargers’ 25 on the drive that ended in a Mark Andrews touchdown. In a game that ended as a seven-point contest, the Ravens scored 14 on drives that included optimal fourth-down decisions. The three fourth-down conversions tied for the Ravens’ most in a single game in team history, per ESPN Research.

Put a feather in the cap of John Harbaugh and the Ravens’ analytics department, long lauded as one of the best in football. They made the right calls on Monday, and the Ravens won a critical road game.