Spectacular things happen in the NFL all the time. Impossible Josh Allen throws, superhuman Lamar Jackson runs, historic comebacks, smashed records, the Giants letting Saquon Barkleyleave in free agency to become a Super Bowl champion with the Eagles — all mind-boggling, highly improbable stuff.

Spectacular things happen frequently enough that our brains become good at normalizing the astonishing. We must yank those surprises back into focus and emphasize just how bananas they really are. It feels very normal now that Sam Darnold was successful for the Vikings and will likely get a big free agent deal in the next few weeks, but imagine predicting such a thing to your friends on a beach last summer. You would have been met with incredulity, laughter and mockery.

What Darnold and the Vikings achieved in 2024 was unbelievable. So too are the quarterback reclamations that came before him. Show me the receipts predicting Baker Mayfield would make consecutive postseason appearances with the Buccaneers back when he was fightingKyle Trask for the starting job. Who among us still had Geno Smith stock when Russell Wilson was traded out of Seattle?

Quarterback reclamations have become a critical throughline of the past few offseasons. At the time, they were quiet moves — backups signed to one-year deals or trades for Day 3 picks. But those deals have loud repercussions for teams staring down the barrel of long rebuilds and draft day lotteries for their future franchise quarterback, then suddenly being saved by a veteran quarterback who just needed a new home.

I don’t think there’s one cut-and-dried way to suddenly turn a disappointing quarterback into an acceptable starter — no specific offensive system, no clear rubric. But there are enough recent success stories to identify the ideal conditions for a quarterback revival — the reconstructing of a franchise quarterback from some other franchise’s scrap heap. Let’s look at the quarterbacks and teams that pulled it off, and how they did it. Plus, we can pick out a few 2025 free agent passers who could be next in line, and the QB-needy teams that make sense as turnaround landing spots.

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Recent examples | Keys to success
Who’s next? | Needy teams

The QBs who fit the description

Sam Darnold: Darnold’s career resurgence in Minnesota was one of the biggest storylines of the 2024 season. He averaged 0.09 EPA per dropback and 48.5% dropback success rate — both above-average numbers leaguewide — and kept his interception rate in check (1.9%).

It’s too early to say the recovery is complete, as he still needs to be productive in 2025 and will likely have to do so outside of Minnesota. He’s the most recent and most stark example of a quarterback who looked inept the last time he was a long-term starter (2021 Jets) then looked renewed in his new home (2024 Vikings) a few years later. He’s where this conversation begins.

Geno Smith: The 39th overall pick of the 2013 draft, Smith lost the Jets’ starting job in just two short seasons before filling QB2 jobs with the Giants, Chargers and Seahawks for much of the late 2010s into the 2020s. He looked like a career QB2 until he beat outDrew Lock for the starting job in 2022 (at the ripe young age of 32!) and has since delivered three straight seasons of above-average quarterback play. Of the bunch we’re discussing, he feels like the unlikeliest because of where he was drafted and the amount of time it took for him to go back to being a starter.

Baker Mayfield: The first overall pick of the 2018 draft looked like another struck-through name on the back of a duct-taped Browns jersey. The starter in Cleveland for four years, Mayfield won a playoff game and saw his fifth-year option picked up, but an injury-riddled 2021 season tanked his stock far enough that the Browns swung for the fences with the infamous Deshaun Watsontrade. After a bad season with the Panthers (and one wild Thursday night game with the Rams), he landed in Tampa Bay on a one-year deal and looked like a new man. The 2024 season was the best of his career by EPA per dropback, success rate, completion percentage, adjusted net yards per attempt — just about everything.

Ryan Tannehill: You might have to stretch your memory for this one, but in 2019, the Dolphins traded Tannehill to the Titans for a fourth-round pick. He was meant to be a veteran backup to the oft-injured Marcus Mariota but ended up winning Comeback Player of the Year as he delivered two divisional titles as Tennessee’s starter.

Tannehill’s status as a reclamation is less cut-and-dried than the others. He started 88 games over seven seasons with the Dolphins and was never a “bust” the way Darnold, Smith and Mayfield were; Tannehill was just a disappointment relative to his draft slot (the No. 8 overall pick in 2012). But he experienced a huge leap in production in Tennessee, and that improvement bears examining.

Jared Goff: Goff, like Tannehill, isn’t as neat and tidy an example as Smith, Mayfield or Darnold. He was initially very bad (2016), then suddenly incredibly good (2017 and 2018) and then suddenly pretty bad but not as bad (2019 and 2020). Is his tenure in Detroit really a reclamation of a bad quarterback turned good?

Goff’s Rams era is more the story of Sean McVay’s schematic machinations and growth as a playcaller, and the relationship between those two men (both as individuals and as footballers) is too big a bite to chew on here. Suffice to say: When Goff was shipped to Detroit for Matthew Stafford in 2021, the book on him was that he was a bust, and that book reads differently four years later.

The QBs who had a chance but didn’t take it

When trying to riddle out how certain quarterbacks recover their careers, it’s helpful to identify passers who could have but didn’t pull off the magic trick. I’m looking particularly for former early picks who struggled with their first teams, changed zip codes, yet remained unable to break through and find franchise quarterback form.

Carson Wentz: The No. 2 overall pick in the 2016 draft looked for a moment like he had it — that fateful 2017 season in which he was racing Tom Brady for the MVP award before a late-season knee injury knocked him out of the playoffs (and opened the door for an astonishingNick Foles run). After struggling to return to form in Philadelphia, he had starting jobs with the Colts and Commanders that only went from bad to worse.

Jameis Winston: The No. 1 overall pick in the 2015 draft, Winston’s tenure in Tampa Bay ended when Brady became available in 2020, and he landed in a cozy spot as the heir apparent to Drew Brees in New Orleans. And while Winston’s time in New Orleans was unquestionably fun, it never ascended to a level beyond entertaining. He clearly has the physical talent to make plays (see: 2024 Browns season), so what’s missing?

Justin Fields: It’s easy to forget that just 10 months ago we weren’t talking about a potential Darnold resurgence in Minnesota, but rather a Fields reclamation in Pittsburgh. While Fields looked better in Pittsburgh (read: fewer awful, drive-ending mistakes), he didn’t establish himself as a potential franchise guy, and he was supplanted by Russell Wilson. What worked for these other guys that hasn’t clicked for Fields?

Josh Rosen, Paxton Lynch, Mitchell Trubisky and others: I don’t think there’s much to these passers’ stories beyond a simple draft miss: They were not good enough to hang at the NFL level in their first stops and subsequently failed at their second spots because of the same lack of talent. But perhaps there’s something else I’m missing.

The keys to a successful QB reclamation

Looking at the quarterbacks who have and have not turned things around is equally instructive. There are several factors present in the successful reclamations, and at least one of them is absent in the failures. Admittedly, identifying the common threads between the haves and the have-nots is biased by the known outcomes: It’s easy to say what matters when the future is known.

But as far as I see it, there are four tenants by which a good quarterback reclamation project can be identified and supported:

1. The quarterback has to actually be sort of good. This may seem like a silly thing to say in the beginning of a “how to make a good quarterback out of a bad one” breakdown, but it’s actually the thing that stands out the most. Mayfield was the first overall pick, as was Goff; Darnold was third, and Tannehill was eighth. Smith was the only revitalized quarterback selected outside of the top 8, but if you remember that 2013 QB class, he was the second off the board and a surprising draft day fall. It’s fair to say Smith would have gone earlier if he were drafted in 2023, when we knew a lot more about rookie quarterback contract value.

Why were these players drafted so high? Because they had a set of skills that warranted being chosen near the top — ideal size, awesome arm talent, big-time competitiveness and/or preternatural accuracy. It hadn’t coalesced into anything just yet, but there’s a difference between this class of player and the Gardner Minshew/Aidan O’Connell/Sam Howell/Jacoby Brissett tier of midround successes. There’s a higher ceiling — one actually worth gambling on.

While the NFL is far from perfect at drafting quarterbacks (and all other positions, for that matter), draft capital is still a predictive measure of a player’s NFL future. First-rounders are more likely to succeed than second-rounders, and second-rounders relative to third-rounders and so on. There is some confirmation bias in that observed sensation — the league is more willing to give second, third and fourth chances to highly drafted players. But it is a real sensation nonetheless, even if it’s just a self-perpetuating cycle from a league that doesn’t like to update its priors.

And one thing we can say with confidence is Darnold, Goff and Tannehill remained notoriously impressive throwers of the football — “Man, look at the arm on this guy!” — even at the lowest points of their careers in New York, Los Angeles and Miami, respectively. There was something there, the ever-present potential in a draft pick who never developed. Which brings us to our next point.

2. Pay attention to the previous stops. This is less of a hard-and-fast rule and more of a guideline, but it’s still worth highlighting. If a quarterback was bad on a certain team, and it is fairly certain that team is poorly run, then that quarterback has a higher chance of bouncing back quickly in a different environment.

The two most recent and most dramatic quarterback reclamations were Mayfield and Smith, who started their careers with the Browns and Jets, respectively. A list of the teams that have experienced the most general dysfunction when it comes to quarterback development over the past 20 years would have the Browns first and the Jets somewhere in the top five. Mayfield’s tenure in Cleveland saw a rotating cast of playcallers and offensive coordinators; Smith’s career in New York was plagued with locker room drama. Some of these issues were of the quarterbacks’ making; they’re not exonerated from their role in the team’s collective failure. But if there was something still uncovered in their respective games, it’s more likely teams like the Browns and the Jets would have failed to find it.

The Goff situation initially looks like a counterpoint here — the Rams are a sharp team — but it’s actually a perfect look at the process. In the first half of the McVay-Goff partnership, McVay proved that it could be done with Goff — that great scheming could minimize the flaws of a pocket passer prone to high-risk throws, while maximizing his delightful arm talent. When the McVay-Goff relationship crumbled and the Lions looked into resuscitating Goff’s career, they weren’t betting on an unsuccessful player from a bad team; rather, they were hoping to replicate the fleeting success of that sharp team on a longer, more dependable arc.

There’s a similar situation, though it’s harder to see, with Mayfield from Cleveland to Tampa Bay. Now that he’s a veteran with years of experience, he has outgrown some of the inconsistencies of his youth, and what worked in flashes with the Browns works more reliably now. Perhaps, with another year of data, we’ll say the same about Darnold.

3. Low expectations are great. Looking at some of our failures is clarifying here. Wentz, when he left Philadelphia for Indianapolis, is a good reminder of the previous maxim: If a smart team is selling, perhaps it’s best to look elsewhere. But he also entered Indianapolis with extremely high stakes — coach Frank Reich was trying to save his job, Wentz was trying to prove he could reclaim his near-MVP form of 2017 and the Colts were still trying to slow their post-Andrew Luck quarterback carousel. The move felt forced from the beginning and never felt otherwise for Wentz’s lone season in Indy.

Contrast that Wentz situation with what happened with Goff, who was traded with first-round picks and seen as a mere toss-in on the Stafford deal. Everyone knew Goff was a dart throw, a bridge at best, until he suddenly became something more. Mayfield signed with the Buccaneers on a one-year deal worth a maximum of $8.5 million after failing with the Panthers (bad franchise theorem!) and competed with Trask for the starting job; Tannehill signed for one year and $7 million after the Titans acquired him for a fourth-round pick.

The other thing about low expectations: They often come with breaks. Smith started 13 games in 2014 and then never started more than one game in a season until 2021; Darnold started only seven games in 2022 and 2023 after 49 starts in the previous four seasons; even Tannehill got a few games as QB2 behind Mariota. Time off allows quarterbacks to break their rhythm, flush out the past few years of bad play, recover from some nagging injury and start anew.

It’s not just the capital used to acquire the projects that sets the low expectations, either. Many of these successful reclamations were stepping into the recently vacated shoes of towering quarterbacks. Goff was replacing Stafford; Mayfield was replacing Brady; Smith was replacing Wilson. The fan bases and coaching staffs both had a clear understanding that, no matter what, quarterback play was about to get worse for the team. So when the replacements were suddenly adequate, the focus wasn’t on their deficiencies, but rather their surprising competency. A positive narrative builds confidence and fosters better play.

In short: If the reclamation project is meant to save the franchise, it will likely always fall short. This is the key difference between Darnold’s and Mayfield’s stints in Carolina, and what they did with Minnesota and Tampa Bay, respectively. (Aside from the dramatic coaching difference, which, now that you bring that up …)

4. Great coaching definitely helps, but great wide receiver play might be more important. There is no doubt that great offensive design and playcalling assists quarterback reclamation. But I would argue it helps in the way that a rising tide lifts all boats. Having a good offensive coordinator just helps, independent of the exact problem under the microscope. I’m sure, if I were writing about offensive linemen who have recovered their careers in new spots, I’d come to the same conclusion: Good offensive coaching is, well, good.

What does stand out, especially between the successful reclamation projects and the failed ones, are the differences in wide receiver play. When Tannehill got the start in Tennessee, he was throwing to A.J. Brown; Mayfield in Tampa Bay threw to Mike Evans (and Chris Godwin); Darnold in Minnesota threw to Justin Jefferson (and Jordan Addison); Smith in Seattle threw to DK Metcalf (and Tyler Lockett). Goff didn’t get an elite pass catcher until Amon-Ra St. Brown broke out, but he was also a big part in St. Brown’s rapid emergence, so there’s a chicken-and-egg problem at which I’m just going to shrug. Again, we aren’t reinventing the wheel here, but it bears emphasis: If a team wants to get a non-elite quarterback producing at near-elite levels, it should go get a truly great wide receiver (and then go get another one).

Contrast those pass catchers with who Wentz had in Indianapolis (2021) and Washington (2022). Michael Pittman Jr. and Terry McLaurin are good receivers but not individually dominant scale-tippers. Fields was throwing to George Pickens in Pittsburgh this season — again, good but not elite. The 2021 and 2022 Panthers fielded DJ Moore for Darnold and Mayfield — Moore feels like the 16th-best receiver in football, not a player near the top 10. Not for nothing, but the offensive coordinators in those cases include Arthur Smith (who coordinated for Tannehill in 2019 and 2020), Joe Brady and Frank Reich.

Perhaps the best case-in-point here is Winston, who nearly got his reclamation plane off the ground in New Orleans. Given what we’ve identified so far, there’s a lot that was swinging Winston’s way: an ex-first overall pick who clearly has NFL-level talent; an excellent offensive schemer in Sean Payton; a period off after a tumultuous stretch starting for the Buccaneers; low expectations as Brees’ successor. In 2021, Winston was 5-2 through seven starts before a torn ACL ended his season. Among 32 passers, he ranked 13th in EPA per dropback before he went down! (He was 24th in success rate and 30th in on-target rate, but hey — he was figuring it out.)

In 2021, though, Michael Thomas was out for the season, and the Saints’ receiver corps was in dire straits. In Winston’s starts, Alvin Kamara led the team with 38 targets; Marquez Callaway and Deonte Harty were behind him with 29 and 16, respectively. The next season could have been better — Thomas was back and Chris Olave was drafted — but Winston fractured his back in Week 1 and played only three games before his injuries (and the competency of Andy Dalton) led to his benching for the season.

It’s hard for a quarterback to suddenly improve his production, and then sustain that spark into a consistent flame, without a truly dominant receiver. That player becomes a “break glass in case of emergency” safety net that turns a few bad plays into successful downs per game, and turns a few solid plays into spectacular touchdowns. Again: confidence-building.

Which free agent quarterbacks could be next in 2025?

You’ll notice that the tenants of quarterback reclamation don’t belong exclusively to the quarterback or to the acquiring team – one of them is even about the previous teams! That’s why I say there is no singular cut-and-dried model for quarterback revitalization – there has to be some aligning of the stars. It is accordingly difficult to predict who the next quarterback to ascend is (and on which team he’ll do it). But predict I will nonetheless.

If I were in the veteran QB market, these are the players I’d be targeting. Below that, were I a veteran quarterback myself, these are the teams I’d be considering:

Sam Darnold: Darnold is the obvious case, and he could be well on his way to establishing himself as a reliable starter. The problem? He’ll likely have to switch teams, unlike those quarterbacks who got to enjoy team stability after a successful season with their new franchise (though they did endure coaching changes).

The issue of high expectations may be the danger for Darnold. If he signs a big, multiyear contract with a team in need of a savior (I’m looking at the Raiders or Steelers), he’ll lose the long, generous leash afforded to many of the successful reclamations. But he already had one huge, highly productive year of confidence-building in Minnesota — so perhaps he has already reached escape velocity or at least gotten close enough to it that he’ll break the pull of mediocrity’s gravity at his next stop.

Justin Fields: Fields had an opportunity to immediately resuscitate his career in his first season away from the Bears and their cursed quarterback room, yet he was entirely unspectacular. But given what we’ve seen from the successful and unsuccessful reclamation projects, that doesn’t worry me much.

The Steelers did not have a good offensive nucleus, and Fields did not have a long leash with Wilson waiting in the wings. It is worth noting that none of the successful reclamations has been a dual-threat quarterback, so the waters are a little uncharted. But Fields still is a qualifying candidate of physical talent and inept rookie upbringing, in need of an actually dominant receiver and low expectations.

Daniel Jones: As every Vikings fan already knows, Jones, who was acquired in November after being released by the Giants, could be the next Darnold. Jones bears plenty of similarities to Darnold, and if he re-signs with Minnesota, he’ll be behind J.J. McCarthy, the first-round pick who missed his entire rookie season. He labored on a bad franchise in New York, is about to get his first break from starting and has been in an excellent offensive incubator in Minnesota.

I’d argue the key difference is arm talent. Jones never made the throws with the Giants that Darnold did with the Jets. And weirdly, expectations are different as well: If Jones has to start for an extended period of time, the Vikings will subconsciously expect Darnold-esque production — a lofty bar for any QB2, even if it just happened.

But if Jones ends up a midseason trade to a team in sudden need of a bridge starter, or competing for a starting job in 2026, my ears will prick up.

Jameis Winston: Winston is already over 30, but I don’t think age is a significant factor in quarterback reclamation — in fact, I’d argue the more experience a quarterback accrues, the better it is for him (until he reaches a point of diminishing athleticism, in which case the ship has already sailed). But since leaving Tampa Bay, he has looked splashy with good offensive minds (Payton, Kevin Stefanski) while playing with unspectacular wide receivers on largely dysfunctional franchises.

Winston is clearly a beloved locker room guy, and the older he gets, the more he should (in theory) stray away from unnecessary negative plays. I could see plenty of teams choosing to ride the Winston roller coaster in 2025 and banking on a healthy franchise curing his “gotta win it all on one play” ills.

Zach Wilson: I mean … probably not. But there’s a chance, man.

Which teams qualify as turnaround homes for these passers?

Atlanta Falcons: If there’s no starting job available for Winston or Jones, the QB2 spot on Atlanta’s roster looks promising. Drake London is a great receiver. (Does he clear the elite bar? Jury’s still out.) Michael Penix Jr. is coming off a rookie season and has yet to prove he belongs. Though early returns are promising, he has a big injury history. The potential for grabbing snaps is high, and the bar for veteran quarterback play in Atlanta, which most recently watched Mariota, Taylor Heinicke and Kirk Cousins, is extremely low.

Los Angeles Rams: It seems like the Rams might entertain cutting bait on Stafford and starting a franchise reload on offense, which screams opportunity for bridge quarterbacks hoping to become more. McVay and Puka Nacua immediately provide the sort of offensive incubator we’re looking for, Stafford’s big shoes create low expectations and pretty much every quarterback who has played for McVay has looked better there than they have elsewhere.

If I were Darnold’s agent, I wouldn’t let him sign anywhere until I was certain this job wasn’t available. But assuming Stafford stays and/or Darnold gets an enormous deal elsewhere, Los Angeles is the perfect landing spot for Jones. He has a big frame and would bring an added QB run dimension to McVay’s bootleg/rollout series (something that has been absent under Goff and Stafford alike). He can warm the bench behind Stafford for 2025 and have pole position for the starting job in 2026.

Minnesota Vikings: Obviously, the Vikings are a great spot for a suffering passer to restart their career. The concern, as I detailed in Jones’ prospects above, is that a veteran QB2 in Minnesota would have weirdly high expectations when filling Darnold’s shoes. But you won’t catch me arguing that Jefferson, Kevin O’Connell and the well-established Vikings machine can’t churn out productive quarterbacks.

New York Giants: If you squint hard enough, the Giants might actually be a good spot for a veteran quarterback to get a solid bump. Jones crumbled under the weight of expectations, but with no expectations, a bridge passer could excel throwing to Malik Nabers with Brian Daboll calling the plays. (Don’t ask me about the offensive line.) The counterpoint: It’s hard to imagine the Giants deftly navigating a tense situation between a veteran passer and an early-drafted rookie with a fan base voracious for elite quarterback play.

If I were Fields, I’d look at that 2022 season, when Daboll made Jones look functional in the designed running game, and wonder how I can get in on that. Daboll was in Buffalo for the conversion of Josh Allen from woefully inaccurate to suddenly stellar passer, and he likely has a wealth of play designs and philosophies for working with a highly mobile but inconsistent passer. Remember: The Giants clearly want to draft a quarterback in April, but they have the No. 3 pick in what largely looks like a two-QB race at the top.

New York Jets: The Jets just barely make my list as a good landing spot, and it’s almost all on the back of Garrett Wilson, whose future with the Jets isn’t rock solid. We don’t have much data on the new coaching staff, but if new coach Aaron Glenn and coordinator Tanner Engstrand (both coming from Detroit) sell a veteran quarterback on being their Goff-esque placeholder while they build the rest of the roster, that’s a fine opportunity with Wilson already in hand. Throw it to him 140 times a season and try to look good doing it.

Glenn was in New Orleans for a season with Winston, so there is familiarity there. Winston also has the big, powerful arm to make the deep-breaking routes from the pocket necessary in Engstrand’s presumably Lions-inspired offense. Given the one-year, $4 million dollar contract Winston signed with the Browns a year ago, he likely will be an exceedingly cheap option as the Jets retool the entire roster — there’s a chance Winston looks like much more with Wilson shagging balls.

Which teams don’t qualify?

Indianapolis Colts: The Colts’ brass is in job-saving mode, which is an immediate pass for any quarterback looking to leverage a stable, sharp team into a career recovery. They lack an elite receiver and have failed to support a quarterback, whether young or old, in the past several seasons. Hard pass.

Tennessee Titans:Calvin Ridley comes in below my bar of “elite enough wide receiver to save a floundering quarterback,” and the Titans will either draft a quarterback first overall (putting ridiculous pressure on a veteran QB1 to hold the starting job) or pass on a quarterback with the top pick (putting ridiculous pressure on a veteran QB1 to make that decision not look terrible). The Titans changed general managers in 2023, head coaches in 2024 and general managers again in 2025. I’d let them figure things out before I hitched my wagon there.