There are no flawless teams in the 2024 NFL season. Sure, the Chiefs are 14-1, but they have a grand total of two wins of more than 10 points and have called upon multiple miracles in closing out games. The Lions are 13-2 after their win over the Bears on Sunday, but they’ve been ravaged by injuries. The 13-2 Vikings have a quarterback with a limited track record of success, the 12-3 Eagles feel like their own worst enemy at times, and the 12-3 Bills appear to be set on making fantasy football dreams come true over the final three weeks.

I’d argue that we never have flawless teams in the NFL. It’s just too difficult to build a perfect team in the salary cap era, and even if a general manager did so, the war of attrition over a 17-game season invariably is going to open up roster holes. Sometimes, those holes and those problems aren’t revealed until the worst possible moment, as the 49ers did when they had to rely on backups Oren Burks and Spencer Burford because of injuries suffered by starters during Super Bowl LVIII.

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Other flaws are more apparent before the playoffs even begin. Let’s identify those concerns for every top Super Bowl contender. I’ve checked out ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), gone through the seven teams with chances north of 3% of winning the Super Bowl and identified their biggest flaw heading into the final two weeks of the season and the postseason.

I’ve also picked a team that, at least on paper, should be able to exploit each team’s Achilles’ heel. Being a bad matchup in one facet of the game doesn’t mean this potential opponent should be favored if the two teams play in January, but all things being considered, it’s an opponent each of these teams would probably rather avoid if they can.

I’ll start with the defending champs and the AFC and move on from there to the NFC.

Jump to a contender:
Bills | Chiefs | Eagles
Lions | Packers | Ravens | Vikings

AFC

Kansas City Chiefs (14-1)

Chance to win the Super Bowl, via ESPN’s FPI: 12.6%
Most likely seed: No. 1

Achilles’ heel: Deep passing attack

A weird trend has only gotten stranger this season. Since the Chiefs traded away Tyreek Hill and attempted to rebuild at wide receiver two years ago, the guy who was once the league’s most devastating deep passer hasn’t been good at making plays downfield. Patrick Mahomes ranked 10th in QBR on throws traveling 20 or more yards in the air in 2022. He fell to 27th last season, which was understandably blamed on a dismal group of wide receivers with a bad habit of dropping passes.

Mahomes ranks 28th this season, however. He is 11-of-44 for 387 yards with four touchdowns and four picks on his deep passes. When he attempts a deep throw, he averages 8.8 yards per attempt. In 2018, he averaged 16.4 yards per attempt on those throws. The only quarterbacks who are averaging fewer yards per attempt when they go deep are Cooper Rush and Deshaun Watson. Mahomes ranks last in completion percentage over expected (CPOE) on those throws. What’s happening?

While Justin Watson dropped a would-be touchdown on a deep pass against the Texans on Saturday, that was the first drop of the season on a Mahomes deep attempt. His 2.3% drop rate on those throws is below the league average of 2.8%. A year ago, he ran a 10% drop rate on his deep attempts. While drops can be a subjective measure from organization to organization, it’s clear he isn’t suffering from them in the same way he was a year ago.

Pass protection has certainly been a problem, especially at left tackle, where the Chiefs cycled through Kingsley Suamataia, Wanya Morris and even a week from former Cardinals lineman D.J. Humphries before turning to star left guard Joe Thuney out of desperation. Thuney made his first start at left tackle against the Browns two weeks ago, and while he allowed two quick pressures Saturday, per NFL Next Gen Stats, that figure represents a major upgrade on Morris, who allowed five in the narrow victory over the Raiders before being benched. Questionable pass protection both prevents the Chiefs from dialing up big plays and forces Mahomes into more checkdowns and scrambles than he would like.

Mahomes also has missed some throws. Rookie first-rounder Xavier Worthy is unquestionably a work in progress, but Mahomes has left big plays on the field with overthrows and/or passes that have taken the wideout out of bounds up the sideline. He has thrown 34% of his deep throws off-target, which is just below the league average of 36.5%, but some of those misses would have produced big plays. I don’t question his arm or his aptitude to make deep throws, obviously, but he has left more big plays on the table than he or the organization would have liked in 2024.

As with other teams here, the hope must be that different personnel could yield different results moving forward. For the Chiefs, that’s Thuney at left tackle and the arrival of Marquise Brown, who made his Kansas City debut in the win over the Texans. The original vision for the 2024 Chiefs offense surely included Brown alongside Rashee Rice and Worthy in three-wide sets, but the trio never played a single snap together, as Brown suffered a shoulder injury in preseason before Rice injured his knee in the first half of the season.

It’s clear that coach Andy Reid wanted to prioritize getting Brown the football. He was targeted on eight of the 14 routes he ran against the Texans, racking up five catches for 45 yards. Reid had specific concepts in the playbook for Brown, including a fourth-and-2 conversion where he was the underneath receiver as a pair of mesh crossers with Travis Kelce. The only noticeable disappointment came on the play after Watson’s drop, when Mahomes and Brown failed to hook up on what would have likely been a touchdown on a throw up the sideline. Brown appeared to slow down on a scramble drill when Mahomes expected him to keep running, a miscommunication that should clear itself up with more reps as Brown’s role expands.

Team to avoid:Denver Broncos. Vance Joseph’s unit has been the best in football on throws within 19 air yards of the line of scrimmage by expected points added (EPA) per dropback, and it hasn’t been particularly close; the second-place Vikings are closer to 11th than they are to first.

These two teams will play again in Week 18, but when they met in Week 10, cornerback Pat Surtain & Co. limited the Chiefs to one touchdown and were in position to win with a last-second field goal, only for Leo Chenal‘s block to extend Kansas City’s record to 9-0.

Buffalo Bills (12-3)

Chance to win the Super Bowl, via ESPN’s FPI: 12.4%
Most likely seed: No. 2

Achilles’ heel: Getting off the field on third down

I’ll start by suggesting that the recent panic about the Bills’ defense being a sieve is likely overblown. Through Week 13, the Bills ranked eighth in the league in EPA per play and points allowed per possession on defense, and nobody seemed to be too concerned with what coach Sean McDermott was doing then. Buffalo ranks 31st in both metrics since then. Although the Bills didn’t allow 40 points for the third consecutive week in Sunday’s win over the Patriots, Drake Maye and a limited New England offense still managed to rack up 379 net yards on 10 drives.

Ranking 31st is bad, but I’m willing to chalk up at least some of that to missing personnel in the secondary, including cornerback Rasul Douglas and starting safeties Damar Hamlin and Taylor Rapp, all of whom were out Sunday. Linebacker Matt Milano was also out against the Pats. All four should be back in January, when the Bills hopefully won’t be calling on Kaiir Elam and Cole Bishop for regular work.

The biggest issue for this defense all season, even before the recent struggles, has been on third down. Buffalo is allowing teams to convert more than 44% of their third downs into first downs, which is tied for the third-worst rate this season. Over the past three games, that has jumped to 60%, with the Patriots going 7-of-12 on third down and 2-for-2 on fourth down as they tried to extend drives against the Bills.

Let’s try to break down where the issues lay by starting where they’re not. The average third down against the Bills comes with 7.2 yards to go, which is just above the league average of 7.1. A lack of pass pressure on what is typically a passing down can cause problems, but that hasn’t been the case for McDermott’s defense. It has a 9% sack rate on third downs, which is just below league average but hardly cause for concern. The Bills actually create quick pressures (within 2.5 seconds of the snap) at the sixth-highest rate of any defense on third downs. The issue has been finishing the job: Buffalo has 10 unblocked pressures this season on third down, but none have produced sacks. The rest of the league has converted about 19% of those unblocked pressures to takedowns.

A more plausible case is the Bills are too passive on third down and aren’t quite as sticky as they were in coverage on third downs in previous seasons. Buffalo’s philosophy on third down is relatively predictable: It rushes exactly four at the league’s fifth-highest rate, blitzing at one of the lowest rates. It also plays zone coverage at the fifth-highest rate, as a relatively inexperienced secondary plays man coverage on third down only about 33% of the time.

It’s tough to create narrow windows for quarterbacks when defenses play heavy zone coverage, and the Bills haven’t done that this season. Just 11.3% of throws from opposing quarterbacks on third downs have gone into tight windows against them, the third-lowest rate for any defense. The Bears, Dolphins and Buccaneers, three of the league’s most zone-heavy defenses, also rank in the top five in the same category.

NFL Next Gen Stats characterizes tight-window throws as passes that arrive with less than 1 yard of separation between the receiver and the closest defender. The Bills don’t allow a lot of wide-open throws — they’re well below league average on the percentage of throws that arrive with three or more yards of separation — but they’re allowing more throws with moderate amounts of separation, throws in that 1-to-3-yard range, than any other team.

Receivers are simply squeezing into those spaces and picking up first downs. The Bills have allowed 91 more yards after catch than would be expected by the Next Gen Stats model on third downs this season, the eighth-most of any defense. With Buffalo playing split-safety coverages at one of the highest rates in the league on third downs, there’s space to operate underneath. There’s no one single glaring issue, but this team is just a little worse than it would like to be rushing the passer, allowing opposing offenses a little too much space before the catch, and hasn’t been quick enough to bring players down afterward. The combination of those factors has led to a difficult time on third downs.

The hope has to be that a healthy Milano fixes some of those issues with his tackling and instincts for reading route concepts, but the linebacker being healthy is hardly a guarantee after he missed 22 consecutive regular-season games with various injuries. His return to the lineup in the snow-day victory over the 49ers was also followed up by two of the worst Buffalo defensive performances of the season, after which he missed the Patriots game with a groin injury. I wonder if the Bills might have just shut their star linebacker down for the rest of the regular season in the hopes of having him on the field come the postseason. With Baylon Spector suffering a calf injury against the Patriots, though, McDermott likely will need Milano down the stretch.

Team to avoid:Kansas City Chiefs. I know the Bills beat the Chiefs earlier this season, but I’m also sure Buffalo fans don’t need to be reminded of how things can be different when these two teams play in the postseason. Even in that victory last month, Kansas City managed to go 5-for-10 on third down. Over the full season, the Chiefs have converted on a league-high 51% of their third downs.

Just eight teams have converted more than 50% of their third downs during the regular season since 2000, including the 2021 Chiefs. While that Kansas City team didn’t make it to the Super Bowl, it went 8-for-13 on third down in a legendary 42-36 divisional round victory over the Bills.

Baltimore Ravens (10-5)

Chance to win the Super Bowl, via ESPN’s FPI: 10.7%
Most likely seed: No. 3

Achilles’ heel: Defending play-action passes

The Ravens rank 25th in QBR against play-action passes, which is out of character for them on an organizational level. From 2007 to 2023, they fielded the league’s third-best pass defense against play-action. Ranking 25th is unusual for Baltimore, a defense that usually either has a pass rush that makes offenses want to get the ball out quickly or a secondary that can sniff out misdirection.

This version of the Ravens hasn’t been able to do those things at a consistent enough level to thrive against play-fakes. While they did a solid job against play-action in Saturday’s win over the Steelers, they have been virtually helpless against those play-fakes in their five losses. Opposing quarterbacks have combined to post what would typically be a Player-of-the-Week line on play-action in those games:

• Patrick Mahomes was 6-of-6 for 72 yards in Week 1.

• Gardner Minshew was 9-of-9 for 40 yards and a touchdown the following week.

• Jameis Winston went 7-of-12 for 124 yards in Week 8.

• Russell Wilson went 8-of-11 for 49 yards in Pittsburgh’s victory over Baltimore.

• Jalen Hurts was 6-of-6 for 72 yards when the Eagles beat the Ravens before their Week 14 bye.

Those five quarterbacks combined to go 36-of-44 for 355 yards with three touchdowns and no picks off play-action in those five victories. It hasn’t just been in those games, either: Washington’s Jayden Daniels hit two big plays off play-action against the Ravens in Week 6, and Ja’Marr Chase had a pair of long touchdowns in Cincinnati’s two shootoutlosses.

The Ravens just haven’t looked comfortable in that transition between attempting to stop the run and adjusting upon realizing the quarterback still has the football. Their defensive backs struggle to latch onto receivers in those situations, leaving too much room for quarterbacks to hit. What had been a defense that did an excellent job of matching route concepts out of zones after the snap under Mike Macdonald hasn’t been as effective under first-time defensive coordinator Zach Orr.

Play-action impacts zone defenses more than man coverage, since cornerbacks and other defenders in man coverage aren’t even looking at the quarterback to see whether there’s a fake in play. The play-action concerns are a subset of those issues. The Ravens rank 25th in QBR allowed in zone coverage this season, down all the way from second in the same metric a year ago. Injuries at cornerback might have encouraged them to lean into playing more zone coverage, but then again, they were beaten up at cornerback for most of the 2023 season, and it didn’t stop them from having a spectacular defensive season.

To be a great play-action defense, teams have to be sound at linebacker and safety. So many teams use play-action to attack the middle of the field, with the play-fakes designed to get linebackers out of throwing lanes to create space and leave safeties flat-footed as receivers run by them.

The personnel up the middle haven’t been as effective for the Ravens this season. At linebacker, Patrick Queen left in free agency and was replaced by second-year defender Trenton Simpson. While Simpson was virtually an every-down player through November, he struggled badly in coverage, allowing a 121.4 passer rating. His role has been reduced over the past month in favor of Malik Harrison and special-teamer Chris Board, and after playing just five defensive snaps in the Week 15 win over the Giants, Simpson didn’t play a single defensive snap in Saturday’s victory over the rival Steelers.

And at safety, the Ravens have had to make major changes. Kyle Hamilton isn’t going anywhere, but his passer rating allowed has nearly tripled from last year’s 38.0 mark. The other two veterans in the fold have lost their jobs. Former Bears safety Eddie Jackson was cut in midseason, while big-ticket free agent addition Marcus Williams was benched for a game in October, came back for two weeks and has been phased out of the lineup altogether. He has played one defensive snap over the past five games and has been a healthy scratch each of the past two weeks.

The hope would be that the personnel changes have eliminated obvious weaknesses for the Ravens against play-action. There are some positive signs. Against the Giants, Drew Lock and Tommy DeVito combined to go 5-of-11 for 43 yards with play-fakes. The Steelers are stiffer competition, but in their rematch, Wilson was 4-of-9 for 78 yards with a touchdown, and he threw a game-altering pick-six to Marlon Humphrey. Next week, the Ravens get a matchup with Houston’s C.J. Stroud, who uses play-action at the league’s 10th-highest rate. Another solid week against play-action would inspire more confidence in the idea that Baltimore has solved some of its defensive problems heading into the postseason.

Team to avoid: Los Angeles Chargers. Justin Herbert & Co. aren’t very efficient or consistent on offense, but their commitment to the run and the quarterback’s howitzer of an arm create problems for opposing teams on play-action. They rank fourth in the league in QBR on play-action throws, and that rises to first when removing sacks from the equation.

If the Ravens can’t get after Herbert, the Chargers could give them trouble. There’s a chance the two play each other in the wild-card round if Baltimore ends up winning the AFC North.

NFC

Detroit Lions (13-2)

Chance to win the Super Bowl, via ESPN’s FPI: 23.3%
Most likely seed: No. 1

Achilles’ heel: Relying on the blitz

After losing Marcus Davenport and Defensive Player of the Year candidate Aidan Hutchinson to season-ending injuries, defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn had no choice but to adapt his philosophy. The Lions were already one of the most man-to-man-heavy defenses in the league, and they’ve kept that up after the injuries, even after losing cornerback Carlton Davis to a jaw injury a week ago.

Without their two starting edge rushers, though, they had to lean into the blitz. Through the first six weeks of the season, they blitzed 27.1% of the time, which ranked 14th in the league. Since then, Glenn might qualify as an honorary Ryan brother. The Lions have blitzed 41% of the time over the past nine games, the highest rate of any defense over that stretch. They’ve usually done that with defensive linemen and linebackers, as they’ve sent a defensive back on just over 21% of their blitzes, the fifth-lowest rate in the league.

Have those blitzes been effective? Yes and no. The Lions have been able to sustain a league-average pressure rate, which is incredible for a unit that is now down four potential starters up front with John Cominsky and Alim McNeill also out. As you might suspect from a pass rush without the same caliber of talent, the pressure isn’t quite as refined as it would be with the starters; Detroit is turning just 15.1% of its pressures into sacks, the lowest rate of any team since Week 7.

When the Lions do send extra rushers, though, teams struggled to make them pay. From Week 7 through Week 13, they ranked fourth in QBR allowed on blitzes, behind only the Bills, Colts and Steelers. (The Bills and Colts blitz at some of the lowest rates.) The goal of sending extra men after the quarterback is obviously to produce a sack, but if the Lions were managing to create incompletions or interceptions, that’s obviously not going to upset Glenn.

Over the past three weeks, though, we’ve finally begun to see teams figure out solutions to the Detroit blitz. The Lions have allowed a 91.0 QBR since then when blitzing, the fourth-worst rate. And teams picking apart the blitz generally has led to big games. Jordan Love went 9-of-14 for 160 yards and a touchdown against the blitz on a day the Packers scored 31 points. Glenn stayed off the gas early against the Bills, but when he started to send pressure out of desperation, Josh Allen went 9-of-13 for 124 yards and two scores, and Buffalo racked up 48 points.

The Bears’ offense is beyond repair at this point and sputtering to an offseason rebuild, but even it managed to find some holes Sunday. Caleb Williams went 10-of-18 for 138 yards and a touchdown against the Detroit blitz in the 34-17 loss. When these teams played for the first time last month, Williams was 6-of-12 against the blitz for 90 yards.

We’ve seen some blown coverages and/or pick plays create big completions, especially in the Green Bay game, but the relative inefficiency of those blitzes has started to bite the Lions. When the blitz doesn’t get home and these quarterbacks have been able to take their time or extend plays, the results have been painful. When Love, Allen, and Williams were allowed to hold the ball for more than 2.5 seconds against the blitz over the past three games, they went 15-of-25 for 304 yards and a touchdown. Their QBR allowed on those throws was under 42 between the Hutchinson injury and Week 13. It has jumped to over 97 over the past three games.

The tougher part for the Lions is there isn’t really a Plan B. Blitz-happy teams can try to throw a wrench in game-planning by swapping out their man coverage for zones and getting away from the blitz for a key quarter or half, as the Jets famously did against the Patriots in the playoffs during Rex Ryan’s run as coach.

Glenn tried doing that on the first three drives against the Bills last week, and Allen ate his defense’s lunch. When the Lions haven’t blitzed over the past three weeks, they have been hopeless on defense. Opposing passers have gone 33-of-48 for 485 yards and averaged a league-high 10.1 yards per throw. Detroit is the only defense in the league that failed to record a sack without blitzing over that three-game stretch.

The Lions got a bit of a respite with Williams and the Bears circus for a week, but the schedule is about to get tougher. They get Brock Purdy and the 49ers next week before a potential division- and top seed-deciding contest in Week 18 with Sam Darnold and the Vikings. Even if they land the bye, they probably are looking at facing Love, Darnold or Matthew Stafford in the divisional round. They’ll likely be able to avoid the quarterback they really don’t want to face, though, until a potential conference championship game:

Team to avoid:Philadelphia Eagles. It’s been a remarkable turnaround against blitzes for Jalen Hurts, who really didn’t have schematic answers against pressure during the 2022 and 2023 seasons. One of the goals in adding Kellen Moore to the mix this offseason was giving Hurts solutions to deal with blitzes, and that’s worked swimmingly, as Hurts’ 94.5 QBR against the blitz is the best mark in football by nearly six points. Hurts left Sunday’s loss to the Commanders with a concussion, but history tells us we shouldn’t write off a backup Eagles quarterback forced into the lineup in late December, right?

Philadelphia Eagles (12-3)

Chance to win the Super Bowl, via ESPN’s FPI: 9%
Most likely seed: No. 2

Achilles’ heel: Offensive dependence on the big play

Being able to call on Saquon Barkley and A.J. Brown to spark the offense with big plays is a privilege most teams simply don’t enjoy. With playmakers at quarterback, running back and multiple wide receiver spots, the Eagles seem to be a walking big play. In their victories this season, they have averaged five 20-plus yard gains per contest. That’s the most of any team.

In their losses, though, the big plays haven’t flourished. The Eagles have a total of seven 20-yard gains across their three defeats. That includes Sunday’s loss to the Commanders. Even without an injured Jalen Hurts for most of the game, they hit three chunk plays during the opening 30 minutes, including a 68-yard touchdown from an untouched Barkley. They scored three touchdowns in the first quarter to take a 21-7 lead, and with the Commanders repeatedly turning the ball over, it felt like the game was closer to becoming a blowout than a competitive contest.

The Commanders adjusted in the second half. Brown got fewer free releases to the inside, although he did draw two long pass interference penalties on Marshon Lattimore. With Kenny Pickett struggling for consistency, the Commanders weren’t afraid of the pass and loaded up against the run. Barkley and the running game racked up 169 yards and two touchdowns before the break, but afterward, the Eagles turned 20 carries into just 42 yards. They failed to produce a single pass or run longer than 20 yards, didn’t score any touchdowns and eventually lost 36-33 after a DeVonta Smith drop and a Daniels touchdown drive. It was almost eerily reminiscent of the early-season loss to the Falcons, when a pass to Barkley that would have ended the game was dropped, giving Atlanta a chance to win with one final drive.

This offense needs to create those big plays because it’s too inconsistent to march the ball down the field 10 yards at a time. Hurts takes too many sacks, which cap the offense’s ceiling: The Eagles score nearly 37% of the time on drives in which their quarterbacks don’t take any sacks, but they’re 2-for-37 (5.4%) when there is at least one sack from the opposing defense.

Negative plays have also been an issue. Barkley has 55 runs for no gain or a loss, which leads the league. That isn’t a shocking number, given that he also leads the NFL with 314 carries of any kind, but it’s more than expected. Kyren Williams, who is second in the league with 303 carries, has 44 runs for no gain or a loss. Baltimore’s Derrick Henry has failed to turn only 38 of his 278 carries into positive yardage. What Barkley has done on the rushing attempts that go past the line of scrimmage makes up for those 55 carries, but they do bog down the offense when they happen.

Each of the second half drives included a negative play. The first got inside the 10-yard line, but backup Kenny Pickett took a sack on a third-and-3 play where he looked to throw the football, with the Eagles settling for a field goal. Pickett was sacked on the first and last plays of the next drive, which went into the red zone and yielded another three points. A Barkley run lost 4 on the next drive, which put the Eagles behind schedule and produced a near-turnover and a punt. The fourth drive stalled out after a Pickett sack, producing another Jake Elliott field goal. And after a Daniels interception gave Philadelphia a chance to seal the victory, the first snap of the next drive saw Barkley lose 3 yards. The Eagles again got behind the sticks, and after Smith dropped a third-and-5 slant that would have all but closed out the game, Elliott’s fourth field goal of the half gave them a five-point lead. Then, 112 seconds later, it was gone.

The Eagles forced five turnovers and recovered the first four fumbles in the game (before the Commanders fell on a lateral on the “pitchy pitchy woo woo” attempt that ended it), so this should have been a comfortable Philly victory, even without Hurts for most of the game. There’s blame to go around for Pickett, the defense and the coaching staff, but I’d also be concerned about how Philadelphia seems to need those big plays to thrive on offense.

Team to avoid:Atlanta Falcons. While the Falcons don’t exactly have a dominant defense, the presence of superstar safety Jessie Bates has stifled big plays from opposing offenses. They have only allowed gains of 20 yards or more on 4.9% of opposing snaps, the fourth-best rate of any team.

When these two teams played in September, Atlanta allowed one gain of over 20 yards, a 23-yard Hurts scramble on fourth-and-3. It only sacked Hurts once in 31 tries, but the defense did enough before a late Kirk Cousins drive won the Falcons their first game of the season.

Minnesota Vikings (13-2)

Chance to win the Super Bowl, via ESPN’s FPI: 6.7%
Most likely seed: No. 5

Achilles’ heel: Taking sacks

As I wrote about with quarterback Sam Darnold a couple of weeks ago, there’s a major disconnect in the metrics in evaluating him. He ranks fourth in the league in passer rating (105.4), but only 13th in QBR (62). He is fifth in yards per attempt (8.2), but 11th in EPA per dropback. Traditional measures see him as an MVP candidate; more advanced metrics have him much closer to league average.

The difference is what’s missing from passer rating and yards per attempt: sacks. Darnold has been very good, but in addition to the occasional rash of interceptions, the one issue he has battled is taking too many sacks. His 8.5% sack rate ranks 30th. The only regulars who have run higher sack rates than Darnold are Jalen Hurts and Caleb Williams.

And while it can be easy to attribute sacks to a struggling offensive line, Darnold has run above-average to unplayable sack rates at different times during his career, including an 11.5% rate in a small sample with the 49ers last season. His career sack rate is 7.7% across a time period when the average quarterback has been sacked 6.1% of the time. The Vikings lost star left tackle Christian Darrisaw to a midseason knee injury, which didn’t help matters, but Darnold actually ran a higher sack rate with Darrisaw on the field (9.2%) than he has with Darrisaw’s replacements (8.0%).

Those sacks aren’t impossible to overcome, but they’re essentially dream-enders for Minnesota’s offense. When Darnold doesn’t take a sack during a drive, the Vikings score touchdowns 31% of the time. Add even one sack to the mix and Minnesota’s touchdown rate drops below 5%. The Vikings have scored only two touchdowns across 42 possessions with at least one Darnold sack, and they each had weird circumstances. One came on a play when Brandon Powell recovered a fumble from a Darnold strip sack and actually gained 18 yards. The other one stalled out on third-and-15, only for a field goal attempt to be taken off the board by a holding penalty on the Falcons on the try, giving the Vikings a new set of downs. Coach Kevin O’Connell & Co. obviously aren’t counting on either of those things to happen if Darnold gets sacked again.

Darnold could improve as he gets regular reps in a good offense for the first time in his career, and indeed, his sack rate has gotten slightly better as the season has progressed. I’d also suggest his style of play inherently leans into trying to create out of structure and extending sequences at times, with both good and bad results. There’s a thin line between extending a play and hitting Justin Jefferson for a 27-yard gain, as Darnold did late in the play in Sunday’s win over the Seahawks, and trying to stretch a play and taking a bad sack, which also happens. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have an incredible ability to create and extend plays without taking sacks, but that combination is rarer than those two would suggest.

The key sequence against Seattle was the positive and negative from Darnold in a matter of minutes. Trailing by four points with 4:03 to go, he was cycling through his progressions before being sacked, which would have put the Vikings in a difficult third-and-long situation. Seahawks rookie Byron Murphy was flagged for grabbing his face mask, though, giving Minnesota a new set of downs. Darnold appeared to suffer an ankle injury on the play, but on the very next snap, he stepped up in the pocket and fired a pass downfield to Jefferson for the winning touchdown. The Vikings will take the bad if it comes with throws like that.

Team to avoid:Washington Commanders. Coach Dan Quinn didn’t get to bring Micah Parsons with him to Washington, but the former Cowboys defensive coordinator has managed to coax big seasons out of Dante Fowler Jr. and Frankie Luvu. The Commanders have the highest sack rate (7.9%) and pressure rate (33.7%) of any likely playoff team in the NFC and would trail only the Broncos among likely playoff teams on the other side of the bracket.

Green Bay Packers (10-4)

Chance to win the Super Bowl, via ESPN’s FPI: 9.4%
Most likely seed: No. 6

Achilles’ heel: Defending the quick game

Let’s finish up with the Packers, who play the Saints on “Monday Night Football.” We’ve seen the Packers lose unexpectedly late in the season before — they lost on Monday night last December to a Tommy DeVito-led Giants team — but barring an unexpected upset by New Orleans rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler, they should advance to 11-4 and officially clinch their playoff spot in the NFC.

Coordinator Jeff Hafley’s defense generally has been great in his first season coordinating for Green Bay, with free agent pickup Xavier McKinney leading the way. McKinney’s seven interceptions have been the big story, but the role he has played as a center fielder is about more than takeaways. The Packers lead the league with a 28.0 QBR allowed on throws traveling 20 or more yards downfield, 12 points ahead of any other team. They have allowed a whopping 1.4 QBR on throws 30 or more yards downfield, as opposing offenses have gone 0-for-11 with three interceptions.

Where they’ve struggled is on throws that get the ball out fast. When the Packers face quick game, throws that NFL Next Gen Stats cites as coming out in under 2.5 seconds, the results have been painful. They rank ninth in QBR on throws of more than 2.5 seconds. They’re 26th in QBR on throws where the ball comes out in 2.5 seconds or less. They are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 80% of their throws when they get the ball out this quickly, a figure topped by only the Giants.

Like in Pittsburgh’s case, Green Bay’s struggles against quick game might be a reflection of where it has its most talented players. With all due respect to Joey Porter Jr. and Minkah Fitzpatrick, the Steelers thrive through their edge rush rotation. The Packers aren’t quite as deep or impressive there, but even after trading away Preston Smith at the deadline, they have plenty of options to get after the quarterback.

It’s harder to create pressure when the ball is coming out fast, of course, and the Packers appear to be struggling to play defense without pressure. When their pass rush gets home, they allow a league-best 1.5 yards per dropback. Without pressure, that falls to 7.9 yards per dropback, which ranks 23rd. They are also 23rd in QBR allowed without pressure, which is boosted strictly by their 10 interceptions. Nobody else below them in the rankings has generated more than four picks in pressure-free situations.

Like for Baltimore, the issue has been more acute in Green Bay’s losses. In four defeats, opposing passers have gone 36-of-43 for 274 yards with three touchdowns and a pick on quick game, producing a completion percentage of nearly 84%. Jalen Hurts was 11-of-12 for 95 yards in the opener, while Jared Goff was 14-of-18 for 83 yards in those same spots when the Lions beat the Packers on Thursday night earlier this month.

And like the Ravens, perhaps there are personnel issues to blame. Green Bay has been without top cornerback Jaire Alexander for seven games and most of an eighth, which has meant more Eric Stokes than Packers fans might have expected heading into the season. The 2021 first-round pick has allowed a 100.5 passer rating in coverage. Quay Walker, another former first-round pick, was allowing a passer rating approaching 100 before he suffered an ankle injury. Many fans want Edgerrin Cooper to take over as a full-time starter, and the linebacker won Defensive Player of the Week for his performance in last week’s win over the Seahawks.

Again, perhaps there’s a choice being made here about what to take away. Just 8.2% of those quick passes are tight window throws, the fourth-lowest rate in the league. The Packers are playing zone on these throws nearly 77% of the time, which is the sixth-highest rate. Hafley might not yet be able to trust his corners in man all that often, and that is going to be a process as the Packers turn over their cornerback spots in the years to come. Taking away the deep threats and allowing completions underneath is an understandable choice, but great defenses obviously prefer to do both.

Team to avoid:Detroit Lions. Coordinator Ben Johnson’s offense averages a hair under 7.0 yards per dropback on quick game, which is the fifth-best rate in the league and the best rate produced by any NFC playoff team. (The 49ers, averaging 7.8 yards per dropback on these plays, rank second in the NFL behind the Ravens.)

Goff has gone a combined 19-of-24 for 119 yards with two touchdowns and a pick in those spots across two games against the Packers. The Lions already have swept the Packers. Could Detroit beat Green Bay a third time if they matched up again in the playoffs?