NFL playoff picture: Keys for nine teams needing Week 18 wins
There’s still a lot on the line in Week 18 of the 2024 NFL season for the playoff race. The Broncos, Dolphins and Bengals are battling for the final AFC wild-card spot. The Ravens and Steelers are vying for the AFC North title. The Bucs and Falcons have the NFC South (and the playoffs) at stake. And the Lions and Vikings are facing off for the NFC North and top seed in the conference.
Not all of those teams control their own destiny, but all nine could use a Week 18 win to at least keep their clinching hopes alive. So we mapped out how each team can get it done.
Here is one big game-plan key to victory for all nine franchises. We focused on personnel matchups, scheme advantages, coaching tendencies and what we see on the game tape. Additionally, clinching scenarios and chances to do so from ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) are detailed below for each team. We grouped teams by each of the four races, and then stacked them within each race by FPI chance to win it. Let’s start with the three-team hunt for the seventh seed in the AFC.
Jump to a race and team:
AFC wild card:CIN | DEN | MIA
AFC North:BAL | PIT
NFC 1-seed:DET | MIN
NFC South:ATL | TB
AFC WILD-CARD HUNT
What the Broncos need to do to win vs. Kansas City
Game:Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 64%
Clinching scenario: Win/tie OR Bengals and Dolphins both lose/tie
Key to victory: Bring man pressure vs. Chiefs QB Carson Wentz
With Chiefs coach Andy Reid announcing that Patrick Mahomes will sit this weekend, Wentz is set to get the ball against the Broncos’ defense. And I expect Denver defensive coordinator Vance Joseph to turn up the heat on Wentz, while using his coverage talent on the perimeter — Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss — to challenge Kansas City’s wide receivers.
In the head-to-head matchup back in Week 10 (with Mahomes under center), the Broncos played man coverage on 73.5% of dropbacks and blitzed 32.7% of the time. Those are some aggressive numbers, and they helped Denver limit Kansas City to 16 points. So why change now with Wentz taking the snaps? The Broncos must restrict the throwing windows and force Wentz to move against pressure, where his willingness to extend plays can become a detriment.
What the Dolphins need to do to win at N.Y. Jets
Game:Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 11%
Clinching scenario: Win AND Broncos lose
Key to victory: Disrupt the timing of Jets QB Aaron Rodgers on third down
In the Week 14 matchup down in Miami, Rodgers threw for a season-best 339 yards. But the Dolphins did have some success on third down, as Rodgers and the Jets were able to move the sticks on just three of 11 such dropbacks, which included two sacks.
I liked how Miami mixed its coverages and pressures to disrupt the timing of the pass game. The Dolphins played their single-high zone and man coverages, using interior droppers and rovers to clog middle-of-the-field windows. And we saw the staple two-deep shells, as the Dolphins limited Rodgers to a QBR of 21.4 on third down.
Rodgers wants to get the ball out quickly, so taking away the interior throwing lanes and impacting the releases of Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson should be the priority for Miami on Sunday.
What the Bengals need to do to win at Pittsburgh
Game:Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC/ESPN+)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 25%
Clinching scenario: Win AND Broncos lose AND Dolphins lose/tie
Key to victory: Isolate WR Tee Higgins in the low red zone
The Week 13 tape against the Steelers is a good one to watch when focusing on the low red zone area of the field. Pittsburgh used safety Minkah Fitzpatrick to bracket and cut inside releases against Cincinnati receiver Ja’Marr Chase. Higgins, meanwhile, drew the matchup of cornerback Joey Porter Jr. Higgins saw two end zone targets from quarterback Joe Burrow, catching one of them for a touchdown off a man-beater designed to attack defensive coverage rules (passing off releases).
Now, matchups can change. But with the expectation that the Steelers once again use a safety to help on Chase when Cincinnati is in scoring position, look for the Bengals to isolate Higgins on speed outs, corner routes and two-man concepts (slant-bench, for example) that force the Steelers to communicate and match quickly. The Bengals had success with this last week, too, when Higgins scored on an out route from the 3-yard line to beat Denver in overtime.
AFC NORTH TITLE
What the Ravens need to do to win vs. Cleveland
Game:Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC/ESPN+)
FPI chances to win the division: 95%
Clinching scenario: Win/tie OR Steelers lose/tie
Key to victory: Target the Browns’ single-high coverages with WR Zay Flowers
The Browns are very defined in the secondary, playing their single-high coverages (Cover 1 and Cover 3) on 77.4% of opponent dropbacks this season. That creates opportunities for Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken to scheme for Flowers. In the first head-to-head matchup of the season in Week 8, Flowers caught seven of 12 targets for 115 yards. Flowers made two catches on wheel concepts that tested the Browns’ coverage rules in the outside third of the field, gaining 20-plus yards on both.
Using both alignment and motion, Monken can set Flowers up again to stretch the defense vertically, giving quarterback Lamar Jackson a boundary target running into open voids. Cleveland has allowed 53 completions of 20-plus yards this season, tied for fifth-most in the NFL.
Stephen A. Smith explains why he believes the Baltimore Ravens will win the AFC North after their 34-17 victory over the Steelers.
What the Steelers need to do to win vs. Cincinnati
Game:Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC/ESPN+)
FPI chances to win the division: 5%
Clinching scenario: Win AND Ravens lose
Key to victory: Win the edges in the run game with RB Najee Harris
Yes, hitting the third-level throws to receiver George Pickens must be an element in the Steelers’ call sheet, but the run game behind Harris is the foundational aspect of this offense under coordinator Arthur Smith. And the Steelers can win the edges here using condensed sets to gain numbers to the play side.
In the Week 13 head-to-head game in Cincinnati, Harris totaled 75 rushing yards, with 68 of those yards and a touchdown coming on rushes toward or outside the guards. I’d expect more pin-pull tosses and outside zone, which would give Harris clean access to the perimeter and slices of daylight to hit.
It’s a good matchup for the Steelers. The Bengals’ defense has allowed 4.5 yards per carry this season (21st in the NFL) and 5.1 toward or outside the guards (23rd).
TOP SEED IN THE NFC
What the Lions need to do to win vs. Minnesota
Game:Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
FPI chances to earn the bye: 65%
Clinching scenario: Win/tie
Key to victory: Find more offensive answers for zone pressure
In the first meeting of the season between these teams, back in Week 7, Brian Flores’ Minnesota defense had a blitz rate of 58.1%. That’s a big number. But Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson had answers, as quarterback Jared Goff completed 14 of 16 passes for 159 yards and a touchdown against the blitz (five or more rushers).
However, coaches install counters off that first tape, and without David Montgomery (knee) — the Lions’ best pass-protecting RB — Johnson will need to build off his Week 7 play sheet. Because the Vikings played zone coverage on 79.8% of Goff’s dropbacks in the first matchup, I would look for more underneath outlets on catch-and-run throws and some seven-man protections to open up middle-of-the-field voids. This is where Goff is at his best. He has completed 77.3% of his throws inside the numbers this season, delivering the ball accurately and on time.
Domonique Foxworth breaks down the Lions’ greater need for the top seed in the NFC.
What the Vikings need to do to win at Detroit
Game:Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
FPI chances to earn the bye: 35%
Clinching scenario: Win
Key to victory: Win with wide bunch alignments in the pass game
Detroit played man coverage on 58.3% of Sam Darnold‘s dropbacks in the Week 7 meeting, and Aaron Glenn’s defensive unit has a man coverage rate of 55.2% over the course of the season (third highest in the league). It’s a major part of the defensive identity in Detroit this season.
However, this approach also sets up opportunities for Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell to create conflict for the Lions’ secondary out of 3×1 sets. O’Connell can get free access for his wide receivers here, using the wide bunch sets and perimeter screen concepts. Darnold completed 11 of 15 passes against man coverage in Week 7, and wideout Justin Jefferson had three receptions out of trips alignments, including his 25-yard touchdown grab.
This is the clear matchup aspect of the game — based on personnel and alignment — to watch Sunday night.
NFC SOUTH TITLE
What the Buccaneers need to do to win vs. New Orleans
Game:Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
FPI chances to win the division: 85%
Clinching scenario: Win/tie OR Falcons lose/tie
Key to victory: Heat up Saints QB Spencer Rattler with pressure
Todd Bowles’ defense still centers on the ability to scheme and execute pressure concepts, and that sets up opportunities to speed up the internal clock of a young quarterback in Rattler. (Derek Carr is unlikely to play this weekend with a hand injury.)
The Bucs hold the league’s third-highest blitz rate (35.3%) and bring more pressure from the third level than any other team (defensive back blitz rate of 20.5%). The Bucs’ defense can move late to muddy the pre- and post-snap looks for Rattler, while creating open pass-rush lanes for linebackers and safeties.
In six games played this season, Rattler has a 36.2 QBR and 44.1% completion rate against the blitz. Tampa Bay just needs to bring pressure early and force the rookie quarterback to make some poor decisions with the football.
What the Falcons need to do to win vs. Carolina
Game:Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
FPI chances to win the division: 15%
Clinching scenario: Win AND Bucs lose
Key to victory: Feature RB Bijan Robinson in the outside zone run game
Robinson’s short-area speed and acceleration are on par with Saquon Barkley. He is an ultra-explosive mover, and that fits the Falcons’ staple outside zone run game. Robinson can press the edges or cut back to get north-south in a hurry. So let’s not make this complicated, especially given the matchup with a talent-devoid Panthers run defense.
The Panthers are allowing 5.1 yards per carry and 176.9 rushing yards per game, both numbers ranking last in the NFL. This should be a volume day for Robinson, who has averaged 21.8 carries per game in Weeks 12-17, with 14 rushes of 10 or more yards during that stretch.
