The top quarterback in 2025 NFL free agency has a new team. Sam Darnold agreed to a three-year deal worth $100.5 million with the Seattle Seahawks. The deal includes $55 million guaranteed.

Darnold will replace Geno Smith under center in Seattle, after Smith was traded to the Las Vegas Raiders late last week. Darnold, 27, is coming off a breakout 2024 season with the Minnesota Vikings and cashed in. But is this a good move for the Seahawks? Does it help stabilize their offense, which has lost Smith and receiver DK Metcalf in the past few days? Let’s size up the deal.

Analytics writer Seth Walder is evaluating the deal based on multiple factors, including on-field impact, salary cap implications, compensation, player value/age and the context of the Seahawks’ short- and long-term outlooks. How large is the impact of this decision and how sure are we it’s a good or bad choice? How does this affect Seattle’s chance to win the Super Bowl, either this season or in the future?

We also asked NFL draft analyst Matt Miller to make sense of the deal from a draft perspective. How does the signing change draft plans for the Seahawks? Here’s our take on the big QB move.

More NFL free agency grades (ESPN+)

Grading the deal

Just days after jettisoning Smith — their former Jets-bust-turned-reclamation-project-QB — the Seahawks have signed another in Darnold. And they didn’t have to invest too much to get him, either.

The optimistic view is that the Seahawks landed Darnold for less than the Buccaneers signed Baker Mayfield for in 2024 and quite a bit less than the Saints signed Derek Carr for in 2023 in terms of per-year averages after adjusting for cap inflation. The pessimistic view is that this could pretty easily be a one-year, $55 million deal (we haven’t seen the exact structure of the deal yet), which would be notable if his play goes south in 2025. That $55 million guarantee is a lot less than, say, Daniel Jones received with the Giants two years ago, and the contract is cheaper overall than I was expecting.

I am a Darnold skeptic, though. He is coming off by far the best season of his career and had plenty of highlight-reel moments during the Vikings’ 14-win campaign. I certainly have a higher view of Darnold than I did a year ago — when he had been in the league for six seasons and had yet to have a successful year — but I remain dubious of him as a plus-starter going forward.

Minnesota won 14 games because of its defense. In fact, its offense was simply mediocre. It ranked 15th in EPA per play, while Darnold ranked 14th in QBR. That’s despite the fact that Darnold had an elite playcaller in Kevin O’Connell, was playing with perhaps the best wide receiver in football in Justin Jefferson and had solid pass protection in front of him.

To have all that working for him and only get to the production level he did makes me think that Darnold himself is most likely still only a below-average starter. It remains to be seen what the finished product of Seattle’s offseason will be given all of the team’s cap space, but I have questions about how this will go given the Seahawks’ offensive line and the drop in playmakers for Darnold compared to Minnesota.

In going from Smith to Darnold, the main benefit the Seahawks gain is age. No matter what they thought of Smith, his time in the league is winding down as a 34-year-old. At 27, Darnold could be their next answer. But despite his age, Smith probably offers a higher realistic upside.

Last season, Smith ranked only 21st in QBR, albeit with a lot on his plate and a porous offensive line in front of him. Yet in 2022, he ranked seventh in QBR, and Darnold has never come close to reaching that level. Over the past four years, Smith has been more accurate (plus-4% completion percentage over expectation compared to 0% for Darnold, per NFL Next Gen Stats), thrown interceptions at a lower rate (1.8% to 2.2%) and fumbled less often (1.1% to 1.8%). And he did all that despite having less play-action support. Of course, Darnold looks a lot better if we only consider 2024, but is that fair?

That all being said, I was prepared to be quite critical of whoever signed Darnold given my lukewarm forecast of his future, but at this price, it’s hard to be overly critical. In moving from Smith to Darnold, the Seahawks have additional downside risk because of the extra guarantees, but they did give themselves a lot more upside in case Darnold does hit.

The most likely scenario here is that this does not work out. But if it does, Seattle has at least set itself up to reap the rewards. — Walder

Grade: B-

What it means for the draft

Darnold to the Seahawks checks off the team’s biggest need in the offseason, but Seattle will have to address its offensive weaknesses in the draft to give him a chance to succeed. Offensive line and wide receiver are must-fix position groups after the team released Tyler Lockett and traded Metcalf. With five picks in the top 100 selections, the Seahawks have the draft capital to get this done.

At No. 18 overall in the first round, the Seahawks could be in the market for an offensive lineman like right tackle Armand Membou (Missouri) or guard Tyler Booker (Alabama). But they could also look for a big-bodied wide receiver to line up opposite Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Tetairoa McMillan (Arizona) is my No. 19-ranked prospect and could realistically be on the board at the Seahawks’ pick in Round 1.

In a draft that’s light on interior line prospects, the best way to stack picks would be addressing right tackle in Round 1, adding a right guard with one of two second-round picks and then picking a wide receiver with the other. — Miller