Making NFL predictions is a lot like selecting players in the NFL draft. If you’re hitting on 40% to 50% of your picks, that’s pretty good.

Every January, ESPN asks industry sources to forecast the season. The possibilities are limitless, from free agency signings, retirements, contenders and pretenders to trades and MVP favorites.

Last year’s forecast yielded a few duds (Russell Wilson to the Raiders, Packers to the Super Bowl) and a few winners (Kirk Cousins to the Falcons, 49ers taking a step back).

The proverbial crystal ball is foggy, with the ripple effects of the offseason just beginning. Five of the seven available head coaching jobs are still open as of Tuesday. Who fills the rest of those roles will have a major impact on roster planning and the proverbial dominoes that fall around those moves.

Several starting quarterbacks could be changing teams. The trade market should be robust yet again. And someone has to win the AFC South!

The NFL team executives, scouts and personnel figures ESPN spoke to in recent days have thoughts about the biggest storylines:

Sam Darnold will be a Raider

Some NFL personnel men see a path back to Minnesota for Darnold, who won’t find a better situation to win and maximize his growth than playing under coach Kevin O’Connell while throwing to Justin Jefferson & Co. But the Vikings have the enticing option of starting J.J. McCarthy at a $960,000 rookie-scale salary in 2025, which allows them to strengthen the roster around him for the next few years.

All it takes is one suitor to drive Darnold’s market to the point where it’s cost prohibitive for Minnesota to retain him. And the numbers favor Darnold — at least five teams selecting in the top 10 of the NFL draft need a quarterback during a year when the supply doesn’t meet the demand. Darnold is the clear-cut No. 1 quarterback in free agency.

Enter Las Vegas, which endured arguably the league’s worst quarterback situation in 2024.

“At Pick 6, [the Raiders] are out of range for a quarterback unless they move up, which wouldn’t be smart based on the amount of holes they have,” a high-ranking personnel man of an NFL team said. “They need every pick. They have flexibility within the cap to get it done.”

Las Vegas is slated to have nearly $100 million in 2025 cap space, more than enough to pay a veteran passer. Most execs polled believe Darnold belongs in the Geno Smith/Baker Mayfield class of contracts, somewhere in the range of three years and $100 million.

Aaron Rodgers will retire

The New York Jets will soon hire a general manager who can make a splash with his first big decision: releasing Rodgers and starting fresh at the game’s most important position. That leaves a 41-year-old, recently injured quarterback without a home.

To be sure, some from last season’s Jets staff believe Rodgers has something left and might just be eager to prove it. And he played relatively well over his final five games with 1,270 yards and nine touchdowns to three interceptions.

“But I’m just trying to think of a logical place for him to play and I can’t think of one,” an AFC executive said. “I’m guessing he doesn’t want to go to a rebuild. And if you’re a contender, I’m not sure they want to take on Aaron Rodgers and all that comes with that. So, he might just come to the conclusion that he’s done.”

Quarterback-needy teams picking high in the draft such as the Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns and New York Giants don’t seem too enticing for Rodgers at this stage.

Steelers will sign Justin Fields, draft a QB

People around the league are torn about what the Steelers should or will do at quarterback. The Russell Wilson experiment was not a failure — he showed promise and gave the offense a lift midseason. But he was signed to help the Steelers in the playoffs, where Pittsburgh lost in the first round again.

Some executives believe the Steelers could bring back Wilson. But Fields is 25 — 11 years younger — and has an explosive skill set around which the team could build … at least for one more year.

“I still think this could go either way,” an NFL scouting director said. “Part of me feels like they bring back Russell. Either way, I expect them to draft a quarterback fairly high. They need someone who can be the answer long term.”

The Steelers select No. 21 overall in April, hardly a place to find an elite quarterback in a weaker class.

Colts will end 11-year AFC South drought

Indianapolis has toiled in the middle of the pack for most of the past decade, with one playoff win since 2014 — which came six years ago.

General manager Chris Ballard has promised change, admitting the roster he built is “not close.”

But the Colts are always sort of close to a playoff berth, which is the problem. They never seem to do enough to vault into a new tier, and simply running it back is not an option. Evaluators believe the Colts could become more aggressive in free agency this year, which is needed.

“They’ve drafted pretty well, so the roster isn’t barren,” a high-ranking NFL official said. “Adding a few more pieces and supporting the quarterback (Anthony Richardson) could go a long way. And that division is very winnable.”

Jayden Daniels will make an MVP run

We’ve seen this script before: The No. 2 pick has a banner rookie season, driving MVP buzz for Year 2. In C.J. Stroud’s case, that prediction ultimately fell flat. His play leveled off slightly from his 2023 campaign, though a maligned offensive line was a factor.

But evaluators believe Daniels is different — and has staying power.

“He’s scary,” an NFC executive said. “He’s never rattled and elevates everyone around him. I hate to use the word ‘generational,’ but it really looks like he’s that.”

In a transitional year for head coach Dan Quinn and general manager Adam Peters, Washington’s march to the NFC Championship Game exceeded expectations for many in the organization. The prevailing theme is the roster will be even better in 2025, which only strengthens Daniels’ case.

Bears will sign Trey Smith in free agency

Chicago is all-in on improving its offense with the hiring of Ben Johnson as head coach. High on general manager Ryan Poles’ list of improvements will be an underachieving offensive line. Chiefs free agent guard Trey Smith could be an immediate fit.

“They need help there at guard after the Nate Davis fiasco, and Trey is far and away the best option,” an NFL personnel evaluator said. “And they probably need more than him.”

Johnson’s offense is well assembled at the skill positions with tight end Cole Kmet, running back D’Andre Swift and wide receivers DJ Moore and Rome Odunze. But the offensive line was a major problem and will be addressed. Free agent guard Kevin Zeitler, a familiar face to Johnson in Detroit, is another option that makes sense.

Vikings, Dolphins will take (slight) steps back in 2025

The Vikings project in league circles as a team that’s here to stay thanks to coach Kevin O’Connell’s leadership and talent on both sides of the ball. But changes are looming in Minnesota. Five top free agents — quarterback Sam Darnold, left tackle Cam Robinson, safety Camryn Bynum, running back Aaron Jones and corner Byron Murphy Jr. — are threats to leave unless the Vikings stop them. Safety Harrison Smith is a candidate to retire.

Winning 13 or 14 games consistently is tough for any coach that doesn’t have Patrick Mahomes. O’Connell just did so twice in three years.

“It’s likely back to the starting line with a quarterback who has played zero NFL snaps and coming off a big knee injury,” an NFL personnel evaluator said of J.J. McCarthy. “I like [McCarthy], but I have no idea what they are getting at this point.”

Another team on the radar here is Miami, which has shown promise and narrowly missed the playoffs but is largely stuck in the middle.

DK Metcalf will be traded from Seahawks to Chargers

Metcalf is still in his prime at age 27 and is a challenge for opposing defensive coordinators. But Jaxon Smith-Njigba received more targets than Metcalf among Seattle receivers this season — 8.1 to 7.2 targets per game — and Metcalf, a projected 2026 free agent, likely needs a new contract, which won’t be cheap.

“The Seahawks can still get good value for him, and he could pair with Ladd McConkey for a good inside-out tandem,” an NFL coordinator said of a move to the Chargers. “[Justin] Herbert to Metcalf would be scary. I think [Los Angeles] will be looking to help the quarterback in a big way.”

Tyreek Hill will be traded from Dolphins to Patriots

This one is wild. But Hill’s displeasure in Miami is out there after his Week 18 comments, and the Patriots hope to be on the brink of contention soon enough under new coach Mike Vrabel.

In-division trades are not as rare as they were a decade ago. It’s largely about which team offers the best value.

“The Patriots are desperate. They need a guy, that alpha that can be friendly for Drake Maye,” a veteran NFC personnel man said. “And there’s a higher chance of the draft picks [Miami would receive in a trade] being higher than with a contender.”

This is assuming the Patriots can’t satisfy that need via the Bengals’ Tee Higgins or another free agent. But New England hasn’t been a free agency destination for elite pass-catchers in recent years.

After Hill produced his first sub-1,000-yard season since 2019, perhaps a package including a Day 2 pick would get a trade done.