NBA West tiers: A clear favorite but the playoff race remains tight
The midpoint of the NBA’s regular season has arrived, which is a good time to check the state of the Western Conference playoff race. Halfway through the season, the Oklahoma City Thunder have separated themselves from everyone else in the West, taking a 6½-game lead in the standings.
In typical West fashion, the next 11 teams are separated by just seven games total. Within that pack, however, a gap has opened among the handful of teams battling for home-court advantage with a clear path to the Western Conference finals while the rest are hoping to avoid the play-in tournament.
On Nov. 20, I placed all 15 West teams into five tiers based on how they stacked up one month into the regular season. I’ve now sorted the seven teams that were in my larger second tier into two different, smaller groups.
One team that stands out? The Golden State Warriors, who ranked alongside the Thunder in my top tier in November. At that point, the Warriors were 10-3 with a robust plus-10.5 point differential. Golden State has gone 11-17 since and slid multiple tiers.
The teams are listed in alphabetical order and don’t match the standings — which is why the Dallas Mavericks (with a worse record than the Los Angeles Lakers) are in a higher tier. Let’s look at how that happened and other key trends that help predict the rest of the regular season and beyond in the wild West.
Jump to a tier:
The clear-cut favorite
Conference finals worthy?
Goal is the playoffs
Just aim for the play-in
So, when is the draft?
Tier 1: The clear-cut favorite
Current record: (35-7; 1st in the Western Conference)
Record since Nov. 20 check-in: 24-3
Tier change: 
Friday’s loss in Dallas, a game MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sat out a night after dominating the East-leading Cleveland Cavaliers in a highly anticipated rematch of the league’s top two teams this season, knocked Oklahoma City off a 70-win pace at the halfway point. Still, the Thunder’s plus-12.8 point differential would be better than any team in NBA history, far ahead of the Golden State team that won 73 games in 2015-16. (plus-10.8, eighth best all time).
What happens next: Oklahoma City should cruise to the No. 1 seed as the clear favorite to win the West. We haven’t seen the Thunder’s frontcourt at full strength with both Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren, who remains out for at least three more weeks, in the lineup.
Tier 2: Conference finals worthy?
Current record: (23-19; 7th in the Western Conference)
Record since Nov. 20 check-in: 15-12
Tier change:
Taking a glance at the standings, the Mavericks don’t belong in this tier, but at full strength, they’ve been as good as anyone but Oklahoma City in the West. The Mavericks sank in the standings during a 2-6 stretch while Luka Doncic nor Kyrie Irving sat out due to injuries. Irving has already returned from a bulging disk, and his presence should help Dallas survive until Doncic is back from his calf strain.
The Mavericks are 12-8 with an impressive plus-7.9 point differential in the 20 games Doncic and Irving have played together, and a respectable 9-5 in the 14 games one of the two stars has been available.
What happens next: The Mavericks’ hopes of home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs are in jeopardy, but after winning two series as the lower seed en route to last year’s NBA Finals, they remain a threat and arguably the conference’s second-best team when healthy.
Current record: (26-16; 4th in the Western Conference)
Record since Nov. 20 check-in: 18-11
Tier change:
When the Nuggets were 11-10 during the first week of December, they appeared to be in danger of falling into the play-in mix. Since then, Denver has gone 15-6 to surge into the top half of the playoff bracket and also move within 2½ games of Houston for the No. 2 spot.
Both Jamal Murray and Russell Westbrook have excelled during that stretch. Murray is averaging 22.3 points (59.1% True Shooting) and looking like a No. 2 scorer on a serious contender. Westbrook has fit playing with Nikola Jokic as a starter and is at 14.9 PPG (58.9% True Shooting) in that span. Only the Cavaliers have scored more efficiently than Denver since Dec. 8.
What happens next: The Nuggets still face questions about their ability to defend at a championship level. No team has won the title with a below-average defensive rating in the regular season since the 2000-01 Lakers. Denver came closest in 2022-23 with a defense that ranked 15th, which improved to fourth in the playoffs.
Current record: (28-13; 2nd in the Western Conference)
Record since Nov. 20 check-in: 18-8
Tier change:
As of now, the Rockets would have home-court advantage through the Western Conference finals as the No. 2 seed, which makes them the most likely opponent for the Thunder based on projections using ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI). Houston would reach the conference finals for the first time since 2018 in 32% of BPI simulations.
What happens next: It’s understandable to be cautious about a young team with little playoff experience. Just two of the Rockets’ top nine players by minutes (Dillon Brooks and Fred VanVleet) have played in the playoffs. Houston’s odds of winning the West at ESPN BET rank sixth, tied with the Lakers.
That feels too conservative given the Lakers are given only 60% implied odds to make the playoffs. Houston has better chances than that of a top-three seed.
Current record: (24-17; 5th in the Western Conference)
Record since Nov. 20 check-in: 16-10
Tier change: 
The Clippers would have started in the third tier last week but moved up on the strength of three consecutive wins by a combined 102 points. After tying the largest combined margin of victory in NBA history during a back-to-back set by blasting the lowly Nets and Trail Blazers last week, the Clippers picked on someone their own size Sunday, beating the rival Lakers in their crosstown rivals’ first trip to the Intuit Dome.
The Clippers are fifth in the West and could improve as Kawhi Leonard works his way back into form after missing the season’s first two months.
What happens next: All eyes on Kawhi. If the two-time NBA Finals MVP can get back to his form last season, when he played a career-high 34.3 minutes, the Clippers could emerge as contenders to win multiple playoff series for just the second time in franchise history. After showing predictable rust, Leonard has combined for 42 points in 48 minutes during his past two games.
Current record: (27-15; 3rd in the Western Conference)
Record since Nov. 20 check-in: 18-7
Tier change:
The Grizzlies might be the most interesting West team to watch leading up to the Feb. 6 trade deadline. Their plus-8.3 differential ranks fourth in the NBA, behind only the three teams considered most likely to win the championship (Cleveland, Oklahoma City and the defending champion Boston Celtics), and Memphis could make a move with Luke Kennard‘s expiring contract and a full slate of first-round picks.
What happens next: Schedule strength takes a little air out of the Grizzlies’ performance. They’ve faced the easiest opposition of any West team so far, per BPI, and have the hardest remaining schedule of any team in this tier.
That could provide Memphis with an incentive to upgrade via a trade and avoid slipping to fourth in the standings, which likely would mean going through the Thunder to reach the conference finals.
Tier 3: In the playoff mix, but play-in (or worse) still looms
Current record: (21-20; 10th in the Western Conference)
Record since Nov. 20 check-in: 11-17
Tier change: 
Should we have questioned the Warriors’ fast start? Certainly, Golden State’s shooting was a reason to disbelieve its ability to sustain it. The Warriors shot 39% from 3-point range, which ranked second in the NBA, and held opponents to 32% beyond the arc, the lowest in the league. Since then, Golden State has shot 35% while opponents are shooting the sixth-highest percentage from 3 (38%).
What has happened is beyond things evening out. The Warriors’ shot quality largely hasn’t changed from the first month, per Second Spectrum’s quantified shot probability metric, which considers the location and type of shot, distance to nearby defenders and the shooter’s ability.
Golden State didn’t start as hot relative to shot quality as Cleveland, which hasn’t cooled down. Over the past two months, the Warriors have shot worse relative to their shot quality than any other team.
What happens next: Taking advantage of an easier schedule. The encouraging news is Golden State has faced the second-hardest schedule for any West team, per BPI, meaning the Warriors have been more competitive than their plus-0.6 point differential (ninth in the West) indicates. As a result, BPI simulations give Golden State a fighting chance to finish in the top six.
Current record: (22-18; 6th in the Western Conference)
Record since Nov. 20 check-in: 12-14
Tier change:
When we last checked on the Lakers, they were a season-best six games above .500. Since then, the Lakers have been slightly worse than break even. Early on, the Lakers had a tendency to get blown out and rarely do the same to opponents.
Over the course of the season, the Lakers are 6-12 in games decided by double figures, the worst mark for any team with a .500-or-better record. As a result, the Lakers’ point differential ranks 12th in the West, ahead of just the teams in the lottery tier.
What happens next: Those close wins count the same, and the Lakers have the best projected record by BPI in this group. Anthony Davis and LeBron James led a run to the conference finals from the play-in two years ago, and we’ll see if James can reach that level again at age 40.
Current record: (22-20; 8th in the Western Conference)
Record since Nov. 20 check-in: 14-14
Tier change:
It’s increasingly clear the Timberwolves won’t repeat last year’s top-three finish, making it unlikely they can get back to the conference finals. Too much of the blame for that has gone to the trade that sent Karl-Anthony Towns to the New York Knicks and too little to Mike Conley‘s decline at age 37. Conley is shooting 33% inside the arc, lowest among all players with at least 50 2-point attempts.
Conley’s downturn, which cost him his role in the starting lineup earlier this month, has left Minnesota light on playmaking. That has hurt Rudy Gobert, whose usage rate is a career-low 12%, down from 15% last season.
What happens next: The Timberwolves are mired near .500 despite their eight-man rotation combining to miss just six games. An injury that exposes Minnesota’s shaky depth could drop the Timberwolves out of this tier.
Current record: (22-20; 9th in the Western Conference)
Record since Nov. 20 check-in: 14-13
Tier change:
The Kings’ tier hasn’t changed since November but that glosses over a lot of the story. The Kings lost five in a row before they fired Mike Brown in late December. After losing in Doug Christie’s debut as interim coach, Sacramento won seven in a row. The Kings have played better under Christie, scoring at a top-five rate, but the biggest change has been a reversal of fortunes in close games.
An NBA-worst 6-13 in games that qualify as “clutch” by the NBA Advanced Stats definition (within five points in the last five minutes of regulation) under Brown, Sacramento is a league-best 5-0 in those scenarios since Christie took over.
What happens next: Their record has improved in close games, but the Kings are ninth in the West despite their plus-2.3 point differential. Sacramento’s biggest obstacle to claim a top-six seed, aside from the number of competitors for that spot, is the schedule. The Kings have the hardest remaining opponents in this tier, according to BPI.
Tier 4: Just aim for the play-in
Current record: (21-10; 11th in the Western Conference)
Record since Nov. 20 check-in: 12-14
Tier change:
The Suns’ 8-1 start was fluky, relying heavily on a series of close wins. Phoenix went 7-0 in clutch games during that span and has gone 7-9 since. Early indicators were more positive because the Suns were healthy. Phoenix is 18-7 when both Devin Booker and Kevin Durant play, albeit with many of those close wins, and 2-13 with a minus-8.3 differential when either sits out.
What happens next: Newly acquired center Nick Richards, who had 21 points on 7-of-8 shooting and 11 rebounds in his Suns debut Saturday, continuing to fit well is Phoenix’s best hope of moving up into the third tier.
Missing the postseason with the NBA’s highest payroll and no first-round pick this year (it’s headed to Houston via a swap with the Brooklyn Nets, who got it in the Durant trade) would be a nightmare scenario for the Suns.
Current record: (19-22; 12th in the Western Conference)
Record since Nov. 20 check-in: 12-14
Tier change:
At the schedule’s midway point, the Spurs are on the verge of matching the 22 wins they won each of the past two seasons — and are in the play-in mix. Adding veteran guard Chris Paul has worked exactly as San Antonio hoped. With Paul and Victor Wembanyama on the court, the team has a plus-7.3 net rating, per NBA Advanced Stats.
What happens next: According to statistical projections, the Spurs are a long shot to reach the play-in because they have the worst record of the 12 postseason contenders in the West, and the second-hardest remaining schedule after Phoenix. But being in the conversation counts as a major step forward for San Antonio in Wembanyama’s second NBA campaign.
Tier 5: Looking forward to the lottery
Current record: (11-32; 14th in the Western Conference)
Record since Nov. 20 check-in: 7-21
Tier change:
Any hope of the Pelicans avoiding a lackluster season due to injuries is gone. First, New Orleans hasn’t gotten much healthier. Brandon Ingram went out of the lineup just as CJ McCollum and Dejounte Murray were returning, then Herbert Jones suffered a labrum tear in his shoulder that has him sidelined indefinitely.
Even when the Pelicans have had most of their key players, they haven’t performed as hoped. Murray has been mired in a season-long shooting slump, making a career-low 39% of his shots, and New Orleans ranks 26th in defensive rating — down 20 spots from last season.
What happens next: The Pelicans can take solace in adding a lottery pick to their core and hoping to bounce back in the same fashion as the Grizzlies, who had a similar spate of injuries in 2023-24.
Current record: (14-28; 13th in the Western Conference)
Record since Nov. 20 check-in: 8-20
Tier change:
Though the Blazers hoped to be more consistently competitive (their 14 losses by 20-plus points are tied with the Washington Wizards atop the league, more than twice any other team), this season is about the development of Portland’s young talent.
There have been positives in that regard. Newcomer Deni Avdija has excelled, Toumani Camara and Shaedon Sharpe have stepped into larger roles and Scoot Henderson has shown progress recently.
What happens next: The Blazers’ biggest issue is their veterans have struggled, most notably Jerami Grant and Deandre Ayton — both in the NBA’s bottom 20 in my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric. That could make it challenging for Portland to get value in a potential trade ahead of the Feb. 6 deadline.
Current record: (10-30; 15th in the Western Conference)
Record since Nov. 20 check-in: 7-19
Tier change:
Of the West’s bottom three teams, Utah has the worst record and the best point differential, an ideal combination for lottery purposes. The Jazz are 4-11 with a minus-23.9 net rating in clutch situations, ahead of only the Wizards. Utah has strategically used those situations for on-the-job training.
Rookie Isaiah Collier is fourth on the team in clutch minutes, and Cody Williams and Kyle Filipowski are also in the top 10, which likely wouldn’t happen if the Jazz weren’t focused on their youth movement.
What happens next: Circling May 12 on the calendar, which is the date of the NBA draft lottery.
