With less than a month until the end of the NBA regular season, the pressure is cranked to the max for a handful of teams that still feel they can make something out of this topsy-turvy campaign.

For others, such as the highly disappointing Philadelphia 76ers, whatever pressure was there before is now as low as it’s been all season. The hobbled Dallas Mavericks, following perhaps the most shocking trade in NBA history, have been forced to look at their season differently, too.

Still, there are teams with enormous motivation — even after their highly uneven starts — to make noise as the postseason draws near. With that in mind, we analyzed the seven teams that have seen their playoff probabilities fall by at least 25% since the beginning of the season, according to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI), spreading them into four tiers based on how much heat they’re feeling in the final stretch.

High levels of panic

Dallas Mavericks (33-35)

Preseason playoff odds: 99%
Current playoff odds: 11.7%
Difference: -87.3%

If there’s a team that’s been more disappointing than the Sixers, it’s likely Dallas, which entered the season with a 99% probability of reaching the playoffs out West. The expectation was more than fair: The Mavs were coming off a run to the Finals and had five-time All-NBA first-team selection Luka Doncic partnered in the backcourt with All-Star Kyrie Irving. What could possibly go wrong? Well, depending on how you viewed a certain trade that went down, plenty. Stunningly, Doncic is now a Los Angeles Laker. Anthony Davis is a Maverick. The reality is that Davis — injured in his Mavs debut — isn’t available to play. Neither is Irving, who tore his ACL. Dereck Lively II, Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington are all out of the lineup, too. Even with all that, Dallas holds a 1½ -game edge on Phoenix for 10th place and the final play-in spot.

What’s next?

The answer depends on whether the Mavs should want that final spot when a lottery pick could be far more beneficial. Hell, one season before they reached the 2024 Finals, they decided to tank at the end of the campaign (and took a fine for doing so), managing to keep their lottery pick. They dealt it for Lively, who turned out to be a huge difference-maker for them en route to winning the West. So no matter how badly Davis and others may want to make a run at the playoffs, the organization has a responsibility — now more than ever, following the puzzling move to deal Doncic — to stack this group with as many assets as possible in hopes of becoming a contender again. That might mean allowing the Suns to surpass them.

Phoenix Suns (31-36)

Preseason playoff odds: 62.6%
Current playoff odds: 6.1%
Difference: -56.5%

If this hasn’t been a full-on disaster for Phoenix, which has the NBA’s highest payroll at $220 million before even accounting for the massive luxury taxes the franchise is set to owe, it certainly feels close. With Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal, the Suns are in 11th and wouldn’t make the play-in if the season ended today; an unacceptable outcome, given that the trio will likely log close to 50 games together by the end of the campaign. (The Suns have won 63% of those games.) Any way you slice it, disappointing feels too soft a word to use for coach Mike Budenholzer‘s group, which finished dead last in defense in February, giving up an unthinkable 122 points per 100 possessions.

What’s next?

The campaign will come to a merciful close at some point, whether it’s by falling just outside the postseason, or after fizzling out in either the play-in or first round. Making up ground this late will be difficult; Phoenix has by far the toughest remaining schedule in the NBA. Beyond all of that, the Suns have strongly suggested they aren’t moving Booker. (We know they would be hard-pressed to move Beal, who has a no-trade clause.) So they need to see what they can get for the 36-year-old Durant, who, with one year left on his Phoenix contract, still has value as one of the league’s elite scorers. Figuring out how to retool in a prudent enough way should be the only thing that matters for this organization going forward.

Sacramento Kings (33-33)

Preseason playoff odds: 55.7%
Current playoff odds: 19.4%
Difference: -36.3%

It’s been a season of immense change in Sacramento, with former Coach of the Year Mike Brown getting fired in late December and star guard De’Aaron Fox getting moved to San Antonio just ahead of the trade deadline. The new-look club, with Zach LaVine and Jonas Valanciunas, has shown improvement since interim coach Doug Christie took the reins. As such, the Kings still have a chance, however unlikely, to land in the top six to avoid the play-in. Making it most unlikely: Sacramento’s remaining slate is the NBA’s second toughest.

What’s next?

Even if reaching the No. 6 seed is a stretch, if the Kings can surpass the Wolves or Clippers to finish seventh or eighth — in that scenario, they need to win just once to make the playoffs — it would be a victory. After all, the Kings had lost six in a row and had a playoff probability of just 1.2% when they parted ways with Brown.

Miami Heat (29-37)

Preseason playoff odds: 90.1%
Current playoff odds: 29.2%
Difference: -60.9%

At well under .500 with one month left, it hasn’t been the year Miami expected. Having a two-month standoff with a star player carries that added risk. Perhaps it was never fair to expect the Heat to go on a run in the East once things fizzled and finally exploded the way they did with Jimmy Butler, who eventually got jettisoned to Golden State after being suspended three separate times by Miami. But who knew the club would struggle to the extent that it has since dealing him? An active six-game losing streak has left it on the outer fringes of the East’s play-in.

What’s next?

Trying to find a way to win down the stretch of games. The Heat have lost nine games after leads of 15 or more, and three of those have come in the past two weeks as the team tries to find a rhythm with the regular season ending. Not having Butler has badly hurt the team’s late-game offense, with Miami ranking second worst in the NBA in clutch scenarios, scoring just 97.6 points per 100 plays in the final five minutes separated by five points or fewer.

We know historically that the Heat, who made the Finals despite being a No. 8 seed in 2022, aren’t necessarily panicking about how they reach the finish line, as long as they make it. (They will comfortably make the play-in.) Still, no matter how much organizational fortitude they have, we know they would prefer to finish seventh or eighth to avoid needing two wins to reach the first round.

Season has long been over

New Orleans Pelicans (18-49)

Preseason playoff odds: 52.9%
Current playoff odds: 0.0%
Difference: -52.9%

The Pelicans, who began the 2021-22 season 1-12 before rebounding to make the play-in tournament without Zion Williamson, aren’t strangers to massive turnarounds. But everyone knew early that this campaign wouldn’t play out in a similar fashion. The injury bug took a massive chomp out of New Orleans’ chances, with the team’s top eight players missing time over the first two months, leading to a brutal 5-25 start. (No team has lost more player salary to injuries this season than the Pels, according to Spotrac.) It helped the front office decide to trade one-time All-Star Brandon Ingram to Toronto before the deadline.

What’s next?

Plenty. No one would logically point at coach Willie Green as the biggest problem this season, given the endless injuries. But after campaigns of 36, 42 and 49 wins under him the prior three years, there will likely be conversations had about his future. Similarly, there will be more chatter about Williamson, who has played arguably his most complete basketball over the past month, including logging his first two career triple-doubles over his past seven games. Given Williamson’s long injury history — he’s played just 212 games over his six NBA seasons — does New Orleans consider moving him to give breakout two-way wing Trey Murphy III an even larger role?

Little choice but to prioritize their pick

Philadelphia 76ers (22-44)

Preseason playoff odds: 98.1%
Current playoff odds: 0.0%
Difference: -98.1%

Perhaps no team has had a more disappointing season than Philly, which came in with bona fide title hopes and looked the part of a contender after adding Paul George and an array of solid depth pieces in Caleb Martin, Eric Gordon and Andre Drummond. Joel Embiid never could get fully healthy, and things were just off from the jump. (Even rookie Jared McCain, seemingly the one bright spot for this snakebitten club, was lost for the season due to a knee injury as he was getting Rookie of the Year buzz.) With Embiid being shut down for the campaign, and George and Tyrese Maxey dealing with injuries of their own, this is a lost season.

What’s next?

Definitively figuring out if surgery is the best course of action for Embiid, a decision coach Nick Nurse has said could be coming in the next few days. It also will make sense for the Sixers, who can keep their first-round pick if it lands within the top six of the draft, to consider having George sit the remainder of the season to help them accomplish that goal. Frankly, anything that helps them get their pick this summer, and gives them the best chance of fielding a healthier trio of Embiid, George and Maxey next season is what the Sixers should be carrying out.

Whatever happens, happens

Chicago Bulls (28-38)

Preseason playoff odds: 55.5%
Current playoff odds: 22.9%
Difference: -32.6%

Coming into the season, one of the biggest questions facing the Bulls’ rebuild was whether they could find a trade partner for two-time All-Star Zach LaVine? LaVine, whose contract had previously been seen as onerous for contending teams in the NBA’s second apron era, quickly rehabbed his reputation as one of the league’s most efficient volume scorers. Chicago, in turn, unloaded him in a three-team deal, getting back its 2025 first-round pick in addition to landing guards Tre Jones and Kevin Huerter and center Zach Collins.

What’s next?

By sitting in 10th place and clearly headed for the play-in again, the Bulls will end up where they likely would have had they kept LaVine. Moving him simply allows the club more flexibility and its own pick in a talented draft. If they make the playoffs through the play-in, great. If they don’t, fine. Between getting their pick back from San Antonio and watching Lonzo Ball play as much as he has, the campaign has been a mild success, even if the team doesn’t win meaningfully.