On Wednesday, the NBA slapped the Utah Jazz with a $100,000 fine for violating the league’s player participation policy for sitting star Lauri Markkanen in a game last week in Washington “as well as other recent games.”

Markkanen had missed nine straight games with various ailments, and the league reached the conclusion he had actually been able to play. In other words, the team appeared guilty of blatant tanking. It was working, too; the Jazz lost eight of the nine games.

Shortly after the fine was levied, the Jazz updated their injury report to declare Markkanen available to play that night against the Memphis Grizzlies. The Jazz lost again anyway.

The same night, in a high-value tank game in Toronto, the Raptors started two rookies, a two-way player and a player on a 10-day contract and still beat the Philadelphia 76ers, who had more than $140 million in salaries on the inactive list. As a result, Toronto moved ahead of the 76ers in the actual standings, but Philadelphia moved into a tie for fifth in the NBA’s draft lottery standings, a vital development for a 76ers team that needs its draft pick to land inside the top six to keep it.

“Right now there are nine teams tanking,” one league executive said. “And next year’s draft is going to have maybe more franchise players than this year’s draft. A year from now, you may still have nine teams tanking.”

Let’s dive into the next steps for a handful of those teams — the seven with the best odds at the No. 1 overall pick, according to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) — as we canvass the league for intel on the franchises that will matter most leading up to the May lottery and June draft.

Jump to a team:
Raptors | Nets
76ers | Pelicans
Hornets | Jazz
Wizards

Brooklyn Nets (22-44)

BPI draft odds
No. 1 pick: 9.2%
Top 3 pick: 27.5%
Top 5 pick: 38.0%

Windhorst: The Nets made their intentions clear last summer when they made an inventive trade with the Houston Rockets to reacquire control of their 2025 and 2026 first-round picks after they’d used them to acquire James Harden in 2021. Actions over words, the Nets clearly felt by getting both picks that they might need to have a two-year “rebuild” even though they are in position to improve this summer, when they could have more than $60 million in cap space.

“They’re going to use it in trade because they’re not going to have anyone to pay in this free agent market,” a rival executive said. “They could end up right back in this spot next year.”

Bontemps: That trade with Houston will enable the Nets to do something they have yet to do since they arrived in Brooklyn ahead of the 2012-13 season: make a draft pick in the lottery. In fact, this year’s pick will be the first time the Nets have a selection inside the top 20 since moving inside the five boroughs.

But while the franchise remains in the nascent stages of its rebuild, league insiders I spoke to this week have praised rookie coach Jordi Fernandez, who has done a terrific job getting a team short on talent to be competitive on a nightly basis. “If you’re the Nets, the thing you’re excited about is Jordi,” an executive said.

Toronto Raptors (23-43)

BPI draft odds
No. 1 pick: 7.5%
Top 3 pick: 22.7%
Top 5 pick: 31.3%

Windhorst: Actions over words again, as the Raptors’ trade for Brandon Ingram and decision to give him a $120 million extension in “pre-agency” makes Toronto’s intentions clear. The franchise is hoping this season, which has been derailed by various injuries to key players, can yield a high draft pick, and then the Raptors can make a pivot next season with Ingram and Scottie Barnes as cornerstones.

Bontemps: When the Raptors moved on from Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby last season via trade, combined with letting Fred Van Vleet walk in free agency and firing coach Nick Nurse, it was clear the franchise was moving into a new era. It was also clear the Raptors were trying to make their dip out of the playoff mix in the East as short and painless as possible.

They landed Immanuel Quickley in the Anunoby trade and gave him a big contract last summer to make him the team’s long-term starting point guard. They then did the same thing with Ingram last month and are now doing everything they can to maximize their lottery odds — although having the league’s easiest remaining schedule is continuing to wreak havoc with those plans.

Windhorst: Of interest when evaluating the Raptors’ short-term future is control of the franchise. Last fall, Edward Rogers, the chairman of Canadian firm Rogers Communications, executed a deal that increased the company’s stake in the Raptors’ parent company to 75%. Next year, he has the right to buy out current governor Larry Tannenbaum’s ownership shares and have full control of the franchise. Just where the Raptors are when that transaction takes place is already a source of both intrigue around the NBA and stress within an organization missing its third straight postseason.

Bontemps: Pulling off such a quick turnaround is not easy. And while so much of whether it will work or not will hinge on whether the Raptors get some lottery luck this spring, their approach has been met with some skepticism around the league.

“I don’t like what Toronto is doing,” another executive said. “Trying to flip it quick is dangerous.”

Philadelphia 76ers (22-43)

BPI draft odds
No. 1 pick: 10.4%
Top 3 pick: 31.0%
Top 5 pick: 43.3%

Bontemps: After their offseason splashes, it’s remarkable that Philadelphia has a reasonable chance of hanging on to its draft pick. Due to the 76ers dropping 16 of their past 19 games, they are now projected to finish with the league’s fifth-worst record, which would give them a better-than-60% chance of hanging on to their top-six-protected first-rounder.

For as disastrous as this season has been for the 76ers, if it results in them keeping their pick — let alone landing Cooper Flagg if they secure the top selection for the first time since drafting Ben Simmons in 2016 — it would make things look dramatically different in a hurry.

Windhorst: Obviously it’s a shocking situation for the 76ers to be focusing on protecting their draft pick rather than chasing a top seed in this year’s playoffs. With Joel Embiid, Paul George and Tyrese Maxey costing $145 million next season, the hope is health will return and with a new draft pick the 76ers are back on track. However …

“Until they know what is happening with Embiid, there is no way to project what they will be next year,” a league executive said. “They will have a hard time changing that roster.”

Bontemps: There continues to be no update on Embiid’s situation, per sources, as he and the 76ers look for solutions for his troublesome left knee. But, if the 76ers do manage to hang on to their pick, the combination of Maxey, promising rookie Jared McCain, the upcoming lottery pick and Quentin Grimes, who will be a restricted free agent but has impressed since coming over in a trade last month, at least gives Philadelphia some young talent to begin buttressing its roster.

Still, any sort of a rebound next season will begin not only with Embiid but also George, whose availability moving forward is expected to be announced soon after the 34-year-old wing missed the past few games with a groin injury.

Charlotte Hornets (16-49)

BPI draft odds
No. 1 pick: 13.8%
Top 3 pick: 39.3%
Top 5 pick: 71.3%

Bontemps: Charlotte has earned a lot of credit around the league for the way it has handled the opening phases of its rebuild under owners Rick Schnall and Gabe Plotkin. The duo has invested heavily in the team, including working on a new practice facility and hiring a coaching staff led by Charles Lee and a front office led by Jeff Peterson that has executed a series of smart trades to build out the Hornets’ asset base. “They’re checking the boxes on the things they need to do,” a scout said.

Windhorst: The Hornets showed their hand at the trade deadline when they surprisingly agreed to a trade to send franchise center Mark Williams to the Los Angeles Lakers. The deal was later rescinded and, when he has been healthy enough to be in the lineup, Williams has put up good numbers including a series of 20-point/10-rebound games. But that the Hornets were willing to trade him a few months before he was eligible to sign a contract extension sent a message around the league.

“There may not be too many players on their roster they’re not willing to discuss in deals this summer,” one executive said. “It may start with [2023 No. 2 pick] Brandon Miller and not go too far after that.”

Bontemps: That raises the obvious question: What about LaMelo Ball? Sources said the Hornets have no interest in moving on from their star guard. But setting aside the questions about Williams moving forward after the rescinded trade, the Hornets have Miller, their upcoming lottery pick and this year’s lottery selection, Tidjane Salaun, all as building blocks moving forward.

Ball, meanwhile, is already on his second contract. That alone makes it an interesting situation to monitor moving forward. “LaMelo is the question there,” the scout said.

Windhorst: This will be the ninth consecutive season Charlotte misses the playoffs, and big deals given to Ball ($204 million) and Miles Bridges ($75 million) haven’t changed the team’s outlook, nor has acquiring a host of veterans with years left on their contracts like Grant Williams, Josh Green and Jusuf Nurkic.

“Jeff Peterson and his group have made a couple of shrewd deals to pick up assets,” another scout said. “They may be thinking of doing a larger surgery to the roster.”

Washington Wizards (14-51)

BPI draft odds
No. 1 pick: 14%
Top 3 pick: 39.9%
Top 5 pick: 89.0%

Windhorst: The Wizards have a historically bad minus-11.9 net rating this season, a statistical representation of a team that hasn’t just routinely lost while in the midst of a long-term rebuild but one that has been routinely dominated. The Wizards’ front office clearly did not build a team meant to seriously contend for the playoffs, but they’ve been out of even competing for a play-in spot by Christmas the past two seasons. Even if they hit lottery luck for a second consecutive year and land a top-four pick, this is a team that is very likely headed for the lottery again next season.

But the lopsided losing is something they’ve been working on. At the trade deadline, they dealt for respected veteran players Khris Middleton and Marcus Smart. After having two separate 15-game losing streaks and winning just five games before Jan. 1 with a wretched minus-16.9 net rating, the Wizards have won eight games since the trades to improve their net rating to minus-6.0. Baby steps.

Bontemps: Those baby steps have been noticed around the league. Multiple executives praised the Wizards for bringing in Middleton — getting another young flier in AJ Johnson as part of the deal — to provide some veteran stability for an extremely young team.

“I like what they are doing,” an executive said. “They’re doing things the right way.”

As with so many of these teams, much of their future will come down to what happens this spring, and whether Washington winds up with Flagg or another elite prospect around whom to anchor its rebuild. At some point, though, there must be steps forward from a team that won 15 games last season and might not win more than that this season.

Utah Jazz (15-51)

BPI draft odds
No. 1 pick: 13.9%
Top 3 pick: 39.8%
Top 5 pick: 81.5%

Bontemps: The past two seasons saw the Jazz operate from the same playbook: be competitive for the first 45 or 50 games, and then plummet down the standings over the final weeks of the regular season. That has resulted in the Jazz landing a pair of draft picks in the middle of the lottery and, so far, striking out on adding the long-term difference maker they need.

Not surprisingly, the Jazz took a different approach this season, fully committing to being in the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes from the beginning — which played a part in them getting fined this week for violating the PPP. (It’s also possible that Utah won’t be the last team fined for it, either.)

Windhorst: The Jazz are going to meet their goal of having one of the three bottom spots that will get them a 14% chance to win the lottery in May. But even three years into a rebuild that was kicked off with the trades of Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert in 2022, the Jazz haven’t built a clear foundation of core players. Even if they strike gold in the draft, they still may be a way off from playoff contention.

When Markkanen waited to sign his four-year, $220 million contract extension last August, he waited until rules prevented him from being traded this season. But his commitment to the franchise came with an understanding, league sources said, that the Jazz would have a timely turn toward competing. For the moment, that path isn’t clear — and Markkanen can be traded after the season.

New Orleans Pelicans (18-49)

BPI draft odds
No. 1 pick: 13.1%
Top 3 pick: 37.5%
Top 5 pick: 59.1%

Windhorst: The Pelicans have been decimated by injuries yet again and have an expensive team that has routinely unachieved. After missing 24 games this season after a third consecutive year with a significant hamstring injury, Zion Williamson has been healthy for the past two months and has shown improved playmaking and conditioning. But the Pelicans are still losing, and their payroll will still be high next season with Trey Murphy III‘s salary increasing by $20 million and an uncertain recovery timetable for Dejounte Murray, who would’ve been an interesting trade candidate before he tore his Achilles in January.

“The question about the Pelicans is whether they would consider trading Zion,” a rival general manager said. “It hasn’t really been an option over the last couple of years because he’s been injured, and his value hasn’t been high enough. Even now, I don’t think they could get great value. So they will probably see if he can carry this play over into next year.”