What a strange time it is for the art of starting pitching in Major League Baseball.

The narrative in recent years has been the loss of its primacy as a star attraction. Fewer innings go to starters in general, and no starters carry the epic workloads of their forebears. When the World Series is decided, if a starter is on the mound, it’s because he came out of the bullpen, as Walker Buehler did when he locked down the Los Angeles Dodgers’ championship in late October.

One hundred years ago, starting pitchers accounted for around 91% of all innings pitched and averaged just over eight innings per outing. Last season, starters threw 59% of all innings and averaged 5⅔ frames.

And yet, financially speaking, it has never been a better time to be a bedrock starting pitcher. Just tally up the numbers from your favorite free agent tracker, like the one at FanGraphs.

As of New Year’s Eve, the total outlay for free agents was around $2.6 billion. It’s a rough figure that ignores exigencies such as opt-outs, but let’s go with that as a measure of potential aggregate contract value. Of that total, $1.2 billion has gone to starting pitchers. If you take Juan Soto out of the equation, starters have gotten 1.9 times more than all other positions combined.

Let’s put two and two together and make an outlandish suggestion: Even in 2025, baseball teams still value starting pitching. Its demise has been exaggerated, even while debates abound about how to restore the art to its former glory.

Most of the key dominoes in free agency have fallen now that Corbin Burnes has joined the Arizona Diamondbacks. Most, but not all: Possible impact starters such as Jack Flaherty, Japanese sensation Roki Sasaki and others are still out there.

Let’s take stock of the current rotation landscape in baseball, while keeping in mind that there is still plenty that can change. As with our look at offenses in the aftermath of the winter meetings, this is an in-the-moment snapshot of baseball’s top 10 rotations.

With so much work left to do, we’re not tying a team to a runs allowed forecast or anything that formalized, though specific projected numbers generate these ratings. Our method is outlined below.

Top 10 New Year’s Day rotations

1. Seattle Mariners

Rotation index: 117.3

Ranks — Stars: 5 | Depth: 1 | Length: 1 | Dominance: 1

Top 6: 1. Logan Gilbert (Rating: 116), 2. Luis Castillo (109), 3. George Kirby (115), 4. Bryce Miller (108), 5. Bryan Woo (110), 6. Emerson Hancock (88)

Despite the Mariners’ chronic need for offense, Jerry Dipoto has so far resisted the temptation to thin his top-of-the-line rotation with a trade for a bat. There have been rumors, but when you see the drop-off from the core five to No. 6, you can see why Dipoto would be hesitant.

Despite that, Seattle tops the charts in rotation depth by this method simply because it has a dependable crew that is uniformly better than average. The depth rating isn’t necessarily about the number of good starters; it’s about how many above-average innings you can cover.

Few teams can match the Gilbert-Kirby combo, and it’s not hard to imagine any of Castillo, Miller or Woo joining them in the elite innings category. The group combines dominance (fifth-ranked strikeout percentage and top-ranked walk rate) and length (No. 1 in projected innings). It’s the full package.

2. Philadelphia Phillies

Rotation index: 115.2

Ranks — Stars: 1 | Depth: 2 | Length: 2 | Dominance: 7

Top 6: 1. Zack Wheeler (Rating: 122), 2. Aaron Nola (111), 3. Cristopher Sanchez (111), 4. Ranger Suarez (111), 5. Jesus Luzardo (104), 6. Andrew Painter (104)

The Phillies match Seattle in most areas and exceed the Mariners in pure rotation star power. This is the case despite a modest innings projection for the talented Painter in his first season coming off an elbow injury.

The one area Seattle edges the Phillies is in hits per nine innings, which isn’t a heavily emphasized category, but it matters, especially when everything else is so close.

Last season, the Mariners ranked second in the majors in expected batting average, per Statcast, indicating just how much soft contact Seattle induced. The Phillies finished closer to the middle of the pack. Make no mistake though, this is a deep, dominant starting rotation, potentially the best in the National League.

3. Atlanta Braves

Rotation index: 111.2

Ranks — Stars: 2 | Depth: 16 | Length: 4 | Dominance: 3

Top 6: 1. Chris Sale (Rating: 125), 2. Reynaldo Lopez (110), 3. Spencer Schwellenbach (110), 4. Spencer Strider (123), 5. Bryce Elder (96), 6. Ian Anderson (90)

We don’t know when Strider will be back, though the late update indicated that Opening Day was probably out of reach. By the end of the season, however, he and Sale might comprise the best one-two rotation combination of any club entering the playoffs.

The depth is held back by cautious innings projections for Strider, but also because there’s a dropoff after the top of the group. Anderson is just a placeholder and an unlikely one despite his name recognition. Others could easily jump over him on the depth chart and raise the ceiling of this group.

In particular, keep an eye on AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep. Both have work to do in turning potential into production, but the talent is there. The Braves are one team that could stand to bolster its depth from the pool of dangling free agents.

4. Los Angeles Dodgers

Rotation index: 110.5

Ranks — Stars: 3 | Depth: 13 | Length: 11 | Dominance: 2

Top 6: 1. Blake Snell (Rating: 121), 2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (115), 3. Tyler Glasnow (124), 4. Shohei Ohtani (119), 5. Tony Gonsolin (96), 6. Dustin May (103)

We went with Gonsolin and May at the bottom of the Dodgers’ six-man rotation, though others — Landon Knack, Ben Casparius, Bobby Miller — could figure into the mix.

This is probably also a good place to highlight the possible impact of Sasaki, who could propel the Dodgers near the top of these rankings, or boost the fortunes of one of the teams below. The possibility is why the term “an embarrassment of riches” was invented.

5. New York Yankees

Rotation index: 110.5

Ranks — Stars: 6 | Depth: 6 | Length: 5 | Dominance: 6

Top 6: 1. Gerrit Cole (Rating: 115), 2. Max Fried (118), 3. Carlos Rodon (110), 4. Luis Gil (105), 5. Marcus Stroman (95), 6. Clarke Schmidt (105)

The Yankees are a team with a full, dominant rotation (if healthy) that nevertheless underscores the need for something like “WAR Above Elite.” There’s nothing wrong with this group; it’s that the standard set by the teams ahead of the Yankees in this hierarchy matters. Those are the teams the Yankees need to beat if they are to end their title drought.

If you root for this team, the idea of Sasaki choosing the Bronx is tantalizing. Imagine a one-two righty combo of Cole and Sasaki paired with the lefty duo of Rodon and Fried. Ah, isn’t it pretty?

That thought aside, the drop-off after Schmidt isn’t trivial, especially if Stroman struggles, and any depth the Yankees can add the rest of the winter would be a welcome boost.

6. Arizona Diamondbacks

Rotation index: 107.5

Ranks — Stars: 10 | Depth: 4 | Length: 3 | Dominance: 10

Top 6: 1. Corbin Burnes (Rating: 119), 2. Zac Gallen (110), 3. Merrill Kelly (102), 4. Brandon Pfaadt (108), 5. Eduardo Rodriguez (105), 6. Jordan Montgomery (94)

I stuck with my auto-generated depth charts and consensus projections, refusing to make ad hoc corrections where I thought appropriate. Thus, Montgomery shows up here, though it seems as if he’s below Ryne Nelson on the Arizona depth chart.

It’s a deep group. Beyond Nelson, unmentioned hurlers Yilber Diaz and Cristian Mena should be cited, as should potential injury returnee Drey Jameson. The Diamondbacks have built a good, deep rotation with a balance of veterans and young arms.

As for Montgomery, maybe his price tag makes him untradeable for now. But let’s also remember that a year ago, we all thought he was pretty good. That’s because he was, and after the past 12 months, he’s a once-proven veteran with a great deal to prove again.

7. Minnesota Twins

Rotation index: 106.7

Ranks — Stars: 4 | Depth: 12 | Length: 20 | Dominance: 4

Top 6: 1. Pablo Lopez (Rating: 115), 2. Bailey Ober (111), 3. Joe Ryan (116), 4. Simeon Woods Richardson (97), 5. Zebby Matthews (103), 6. David Festa (105)

The Twins’ pitching program is a good one. Its status in this group would be harmed if rumors about a potential trade of Lopez were to come to fruition, but part of having a good pitching program is having the ability to come up with worthy replacements. Still, can’t a team that currently projects to win the AL Central hang on to its ace?

Ober’s emergence is an example of Minnesota’s prowess in this area. A 12th-round draft pick out of the College of Charleston, Ober rose slowly but steadily through the Twins’ system. He reached the majors in 2021, making 20 starts but getting to just 92⅓ innings despite decent results.

He has since ramped up the innings annually without a hit to his per-rata numbers which have gotten better. Last season, Ober reached 178⅔ frames with a career-best 26.9% strikeout rate.

The Twins will now try to replicate that pattern as Richardson, Festa, Matthews, Louie Varland and others continue to progress.

8. Texas Rangers

Rotation index: 105.8

Ranks — Stars: 7 | Depth: 14 | Length: 14 | Dominance: 5

Top 6: 1. Nathan Eovaldi (Rating: 110), 2. Jon Gray (101), 3. Jacob deGrom (133), 4. Tyler Mahle (98), 5. Kumar Rocker (111), 6. Cody Bradford (105)

I would like to see one more quasi-dependable innings eater added to this group. Re-upping with Andrew Heaney would fulfill that wish, but others are available and they are also former Rangers: Lance Lynn, Martin Perez, Michael Lorenzen.

So much of creating a pitching staff revolves around bringing together a group of pitchers during an all-too-finite window of productivity and health. The Rangers tried to do that last year in defense of their 2023 World Series title and it never came close to working out.

This time, maybe it will. The development of Rocker and Jack Leiter will continue to be worth monitoring, but in particular, we can hope for the return of a healthy deGrom. Which, if you’ve forgotten, was so good he was almost frightening.

9. Houston Astros

Rotation index: 104.4

Ranks — Stars: 8 | Depth: 9 | Length: 6 | Dominance: 13

Top 6: 1. Framber Valdez (Rating: 114), 2. Hunter Brown (111), 3. Ronel Blanco (100), 4. Spencer Arrighetti (99), 5. Luis Garcia (104), 6. Lance McCullers Jr. (100)

The Houston rotation has gradually become more anonymous while remaining the bedrock of the Astros’ ongoing contention hopes. Brown is a burgeoning star if he can hone his command more, and Valdez remains one of the sport’s most consistent hurlers.

On paper, things thin out after the above group and we will soon find out if Houston’s pitching development will remain productive at a contention-worthy level. The inclusion of McCullers in the top six is indicative of the depth issue — at this point, he has missed two straight full seasons.

10. Chicago Cubs

Rotation index: 103.1

Ranks — Stars: 11 | Depth: 15 | Length: 8 | Dominance: 15

Top 6: 1. Justin Steele (Rating: 114), 2. Shota Imanaga (116), 3. Jameson Taillon (100), 4. Javier Assad (95), 5. Matthew Boyd (106), 6. Jordan Wicks (97)

The Cubs land in our last top 10 slot, but there is a lot of upside in their rotation that could propel them. First, Assad and Wicks are more than capable of pushing their projection-based ratings above league average. But more than that, there is a lot of upside in pitchers not listed above — young righties Ben Brown and Cade Horton.

Now, imagine this promising group topped by a true No. 1. A month from now we might see that happen. At that point, Sasaki will have made his decision and early indicators are that the Cubs are in the conversation. This has a chance to be a special group, and we might not have to wait that long to see it.

Five who can crack the list

• Tampa Bay Rays (Rotation index: 101.7):Shane McClanahan is a wild card for a rotation with a lot of recovering/recovered arms. The health outlook creates uncertainty but also variability. If everyone can stay on the mound, the Rays will be seven-deep in average-ish or better starters with more than a little star upside.

• Kansas City Royals (Rotation index: 101.7): The trade of Brady Singer drops the Royals out of the top 10, as does a projected regression for Seth Lugo. If Lugo can stave off that regression, Kris Bubic embraces his return to the rotation and Kyle Wright can recover his pre-injury form, Kansas City can win the AL Central.

• Boston Red Sox (Rotation index: 101.2): The big thing the Boston rotation lacks is an ace, but of course, the Red Sox might have already accounted for that with the trade for Garrett Crochet. The only thing holding back Crochet from a projection standpoint is his lack of a track record for putting up big innings totals. He’ll likely get a chance to change that in 2025, and if he succeeds, Boston will have its No. 1.

• Milwaukee Brewers (Rotation index: 100.3): The top storyline for the Milwaukee rotation will be the return of Brandon Woodruff. If he resembles pre-injury Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee will have a playoff-caliber top two with him and Freddy Peralta. The depth thins out after the top five, for now, but keep an eye on the progress of Aaron Ashby, DL Hall and, especially, hard-throwing Jacob Misiorowski.

• New York Mets (Rotation index: 100.2): Even if the Clay Holmes conversion works out, the Mets’ rotation looks deep in above-average production and thin on elite innings. It’s nothing a successful Sasaki pursuit can’t fix — though, in his case, it’s not a quest that succeeds based solely on Steve Cohen’s spending might.

Methodology

1. Consensus projections were created using data from Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus.

2. Using the projections, a ratings index was created that measures the per-inning quality of each pitcher. These ratings were used to classify a pitcher as elite, above average or below average.

3. A rotation depth chart was established for each team, with nine starters listed for each club.

4. Rotations were rated for the following traits, in addition to a bottom-line rating for run prevention:

• Star power: The forecasted number of innings from pitchers rated 110 or better.

• Depth: The forecasted number of innings from above-average pitchers.

• Length: The forecasted rotation innings.

• Dominance: The strikeout percentage minus walk percentage for the rotation.

5. The final rotation rating is the harmonic mean of the aforementioned rotation traits.

The ratings scale for pitchers and teams: The average index is 100. Ratings 110 or better are elite. Any rating under 100 is considered below average. Each increment of 10 represents one standard deviation (ie., 110 is one standard deviation better than 100).

Note: The top six pitchers for each team are listed. The rotation order is based on projected total batters faced. Each pitcher’s per-inning rating is included as well.