Last year at this time, Shohei Ohtani had signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Juan Soto had been traded to the New York Yankees — but 20 of the top 25 free agents remained unsigned, so it felt like a slow-moving offseason.

This year, things seem to be moving faster. Soto signed a record-breaking $765 million contract with the New York Mets, the Yankees pivoted after losing him to sign Max Fried to the fourth-largest contract for a pitcher (and biggest for a left-hander) and we’ve had two additional nine-figure deals in Willy Adames (San Francisco Giants) and Blake Snell (Dodgers). We’ve also seen a flurry of big trades: Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs, Andres Gimenez to the Toronto Blue Jays, Devin Williams to the New York Yankees and Jeffrey Springs to the Athletics.

Despite all that movement, we still have plenty of offseason to go: 16 of Kiley McDaniel’s top 25 free agents remained unsigned and trade rumors involving other former All-Stars continue to swirl. Let’s recalibrate and check in on some of the biggest names still on the market.

Best hitters

Alex Bregman, 3B (No. 5 free agent)

Projected contract: six years, $187 million

Best bets: Yankees, Mets, Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, Philadelphia Phillies, Houston Astros, Washington Nationals

Nothing is more exciting than an old-fashioned bidding war between the Red Sox and Yankees — just like how it used to be on a regular basis. Bregman’s peak years came in 2018-19, but he still has averaged 4.5 WAR over the past three seasons and, to use a cliché, he’s the type of winning, grinding player that any team would love to sign. The Astros might have already seen where this is headed: They picked up third baseman Isaac Paredes as part of the Tucker deal and are also rumored to be interested in Nolan Arenado (with Paredes then sliding over to first base).

The Red Sox don’t need a third baseman — with Bregman, they would have to move Rafael Devers to first base or DH (if they don’t trade Triston Casas) — but they undoubtedly find this stat hard to ignore: Among players with at least 95 regular-season plate appearances at Fenway, Bregman has the highest OPS. Higher than Ted Williams or Lou Gehrig or David Ortiz. He has hit .375/.490/.750 in 21 games at Fenway. Small sample size and all that, but Bregman’s dead-pull approach is perfectly suited for the Green Monster — much more so than Yankee Stadium, that’s for sure.

Two other benefits for the Red Sox in signing Bregman: He improves the infield defense for a ground ball-heavy staff (Boston had the seventh-highest ground ball rate in 2024), and he brings a right-handed bat to a lineup that leans left-handed with Devers, Casas, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu and Masataka Yoshida. Red Sox manager Alex Cora, a coach with Houston in 2017, has reportedly reached out to Bregman — and no doubt tried to convince him of Boston’s bright future with all its young talent. For a player who has made eight consecutive trips to the postseason, that’s an enticing pitch.

Prediction: Red Sox

Don’t discount the Mets here, as they could move Mark Vientos to first base while improving their defense as well. The Phillies are another possibility as they look to shake up the lineup a bit, but they’ll have to first move Alec Bohm. And the Yankees? With Jazz Chisholm Jr. a better fit for second base, they need a third baseman — and the Yankees would eventually forgive Bregman’s Astros background. If he produces.

Pete Alonso/Christian Walker, 1B (No. 7 and No. 16 free agents)

Projected contracts: Alonso, six years, $159 million; Walker, three years, $57 million

Best bets: Mets, Yankees, Nationals, Tigers, Arizona Diamondbacks, Seattle Mariners

Alonso might be in line for $150 million, but is he worth it? I think that price tag is why he ends up back with the Mets rather than exchanging lineup places with Soto. In Alonso, Yankees GM Brian Cashman might see parallels to Giancarlo Stanton: a slow right-handed slugger without any defense locked up to a big contract in his 30s. The Yankees clearly need a first baseman — they were last in the majors in OPS in 2024 — but maybe they’ll go in a short-term direction, with an eye on pursuing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. next offseason. That could be a trade for Cody Bellinger, Nathaniel Lowe or Josh Naylor, or signing a veteran such as Carlos Santana or Paul Goldschmidt on a one-year deal.

Where would that leave Walker? Possibly returning to the Diamondbacks. The Mariners have the need but might have to clear some payroll room — like trading Luis Castillo — to make a run. The Nationals have been my sleeper team to land Alonso, so Walker is a possibility there. Tigers first basemen hit .224 with 15 home runs, so Walker would be a huge step up from Spencer Torkelson and the Tigers should have room to spend somewhere — maybe for Bregman, a starting pitcher or a first baseman.

Prediction: Alonso to Mets, Walker to Nationals

The Nationals need power at both corners, are on the upswing and have plenty of payroll flexibility to upgrade the roster (Stephen Strasburg is their only player making more than $5.3 million and most of the team is still pre-arbitration). I’d love to see Walker return to the Diamondbacks where he has been such an instrumental part of the team’s recent success, but the Nationals might be willing to overpay a bit to land that Jayson Werth-type veteran leader. Goldschmidt then going back to Arizona to replace Walker would make for a fun reunion.

Anthony Santander/Teoscar Hernandez, OF (No. 12 and 13 free agents)

Projected contracts: Santander, three years, $69 million; Hernandez, three years, $66 million

Best bets: Yankees, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Phillies, Kansas City Royals

Here we have two players who are very similar in style and value: corner outfielders with power bats and below-average defense, both coming off their best seasons (44 home runs, 2.9 WAR for Santander; 33 home runs, 4.3 WAR for Hernandez). Santander is two years younger, a switch-hitter and strikes out less while Hernandez is more athletic and gets on base a little more. Thus, the similar contract projections.

At the start of the offseason, there seemed to be an assumption Hernandez would return to the Dodgers after he made such a huge impact both on the field and in the clubhouse, but the two sides are reportedly far apart — and the Dodgers signed Michael Conforto, another corner outfielder with subpar defensive metrics. Knowing how much the Dodgers care about defense, it seems unlikely that they’ll go with both Hernandez and Conforto in the corners. So maybe that pushes Hernandez back to Toronto, where he played for five seasons as a regular, including an All-Star season in 2021. The Jays clearly need offense and pursued Soto to fill a hole in the outfield, so Hernandez is a reasonable backup plan.

The Yankees have Aaron Judge and Jasson Dominguez in the outfield — and not much else. Santander isn’t necessarily the best fit, especially if Judge returns to right field, as Cashman indicated at the winter meetings. At Yankee Stadium, you would prefer a left fielder with good range and that’s not Santander. If the Phillies don’t land Bregman, Santander looms as a good backup option. Royals corner outfielders, meanwhile, ranked 28th in the majors in OPS, and they seem willing to extend their budget a little bit (hey, they even kicked the tires on Soto).

Prediction: Santander to the Phillies, Hernandez to the Blue Jays

The Phillies are going to do something — as they should, with a veteran, win-now roster that fell disappointingly short in the playoffs the past two seasons. Santander deepens a lineup that, while not necessarily short on power, hit fewer home runs than the Mets and Atlanta Braves in 2024.

Top pitchers

Roki Sasaki, RHP (No. 2 free agent)

Projected contract: $5 million (minor league signing bonus)

Best bets: Dodgers, Mariners, Giants, San Diego Padres, Texas Rangers, Chicago Cubs

Under MLB’s international amateur guidelines, since Sasaki is younger than 25 years old, he can only sign a minor league deal that fits within each team’s allotted pool space. Conceivably, that means Sasaki can land anywhere since “highest bidder” doesn’t really apply here (as it didn’t when Ohtani signed with the Los Angeles Angels under the same rules in 2017). At last week’s winter meetings, Sasaki’s agent Joel Wolfe said, “I think there’s an argument to be made that a small- or mid-market team might be more beneficial for him, as a soft landing coming from Japan and what he’s been through and not having an enjoyable time with the media.”

While that would seem to eliminate teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets and Red Sox, Wolfe also said he had not confirmed as much with his client. In other words: Maybe don’t read too much into the small-market/mid-market statement.

Sasaki has a 45-day window from when he was posted to sign a deal and has until Jan. 23 to reach an agreement. The new international signing period begins on Jan. 15, so Sasaki probably will sign in that eight-day window, giving us a month of rumors on where the hard-throwing right-hander will land.

Prediction: Padres

I’ll stick to my original prediction here, although it’s just guessing at this point. From a career standpoint, it makes sense for him to go to a team in a good park for pitchers, so that could mean any of the West Coast teams (aside from the A’s), who might already have a small geographical advantage anyway.

The Mariners can certainly tout their pitcher-friendly ballpark and recent success in developing young starters (and, so far, keeping them healthy). The Dodgers can pitch their winning ways. The Padres can sell their smaller market and playing alongside Yu Darvish, Sasaki’s favorite player as a kid. The Rangers and Cubs have been mentioned as possibilities. And, of course, don’t rule out the Yankees or Mets if the big-market “issue” isn’t really an issue.

Corbin Burnes, RHP (No. 3 free agent)

Projected contract: seven years, $225 million

Best bets: Giants, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Mets, Baltimore Orioles

Given that Fried went from a projected deal of six years, $175 million to an eight-year, $215 million contract, it’s possible Burnes ends up exceeding that $225 million projected total — but there are still several potential fits for the 30-year-old right-hander. Burnes has been one of the majors’ top starters since his breakout in 2020 — fourth in bWAR (Fried was third) and second in fWAR — but it’s worth pointing out that his strikeout rate has declined from over 30% in 2021-22 to 23.1% in 2024. But he has remained plenty effective, posting a 2.92 ERA with the Orioles and topping 190 innings for the third straight season. He does this in part by limiting hard contact (95th percentile hard-hit rate) and inducing ground balls (81st percentile). There’s no reason, barring good health, to expect any imminent collapse or anything.

The Red Sox are the fascinating team here. Even after trading for Garrett Crochet, their payroll sits at $150 million, according to Roster Resource (with a luxury tax payroll of about $183 million, still well below the $241 million first-level threshold). They could sign Bregman and Burnes at, say, $30 million per season and still be right around the threshold — although they still need a closer as well. Bregman, Burnes and a closer? Maybe that’s a stretch, but keep in mind that the Red Sox made a big offer to Soto. They might be willing to ramp up that payroll well past the tax threshold after sitting well under it in recent seasons.

Prediction: Giants

With that said … the Giants seem to be the favorite as they look to deepen a rotation that includes Logan Webb, Robbie Ray and Kyle Harrison, with Jordan Hicks and Hayden Birdsong next on the depth chart. The Giants’ payroll sits some $40 million below where it was last season — Adames makes $13.1 million in 2025 and ’26 before his salary jumps out to $31.1 million in 2027. With veterans such as Webb, Ray, Adames and Matt Chapman, the Giants should be making a big push, and the structure of Adames’ contract indicates new president of baseball operations Buster Posey is looking to make another big splash in free agency.

Jack Flaherty, RHP/Sean Manaea, LHP (No. 9 and 10 free agents)

Predicted contracts: Flaherty, five years, $115 million; Manaea, four years, $86 million

Best bets: Tigers, Mets, Dodgers, Phillies, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Nationals, Cubs, Orioles

Flaherty and Manaea fall into a second tier behind Fried and Burnes, but their market is currently in flux due to some of the starting pitchers mentioned in trade rumors, most notably the Mariners’ Luis Castillo (who still has three years left on his contract) and the Padres’ Dylan Cease (in his walk year), and maybe even the Astros’ Framber Valdez. The Castillo-to-the-Red Sox rumors make a lot of sense, although that could be tied to Boston signing Bregman to free up Casas as part of the trade.

Anyway, the lower price point for Flaherty and Manaea opens up more teams as possibilities. The Tigers did sign Alex Cobb, but the rotation is still pretty thin behind Tarik Skubal and Reese Olson, especially given Cobb’s injury history. Flaherty, of course, was outstanding with Detroit in 2024 (2.95 ERA in 18 starts) before he was traded to the Dodgers, so the Tigers have seen him at his best. The Mets have signed Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes (with the intention of making him starter), which still leaves Kodai Senga and David Peterson at the front of the rotation. You can’t sign Soto for $765 million and then head into a season in which your top two starters are Senga, coming off a season of 10⅓ total innings, and Peterson, who has never started more than 21 games and has a career ERA over 4.00. It’s hard to believe they won’t sign another starter and bringing back Manaea makes sense.

Prediction: Flaherty to the Tigers, Manaea to the Mets.

It’s possible the Dodgers aren’t done adding to their rotation with just Snell, so they’re included here as well, although maybe they’ll go a less expensive route like re-signing Walker Buehler. The Orioles don’t seem to be in the Burnes sweepstakes and we know paying big money for free agent pitchers isn’t in GM Mike Elias’ wheelhouse, so he might be looking at Castillo/Cease as trade options (the Orioles will add a starter, right?).

Whew. As you can see, there are a lot of wheels still spinning and a lot of quality players available — whether as free agents or in trades. The rest of the top 25 free agents that are still unsigned include Nick Pivetta, Buehler, Tanner Scott, Gleyber Torres, Jeff Hoffman, Jurickson Profar and Ha-Seong Kim. Plus there are future Hall of Famers Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander and veteran relievers such as Kirby Yates, Carlos Estevez, Kenley Jansen and David Robertson. The next 30 days should be very busy.