MLB 2025: Why your team didn’t do what you wanted this winter
What were these people thinking?
We baseball fans like to complain. It’s the nature of the endeavor. Being a fan is about 99% disappointing. The other 1% makes it all worthwhile, but in between the peaks, there are many valleys.
Part of it is just how unlikely it is that your team is going to win the World Series. Even fan bases who are relatively spoiled — like those who root for the Dodgers — will likely end any given season unhappy. The Dodgers are a dynasty of a sort, to be sure, but they’ve still only won two World Series since Ronald Reagan left the White House.
Because of all of this sorrow, we want our teams to do something about it. We want them to address every shortcoming, fill every hole, spend every dime they can shake loose from their piggy banks. Most teams do stuff over the winter, some of it even to improve their rosters, but there’s always more stuff they could do. Even the Dodgers didn’t sign every free agent.
In what has become an annual attempt to assuage a few of these consternations, we’re going to focus on the things that did not get done over the winter.
We’re also going to suggest why they didn’t happen because, believe it or not, your team might have had a very good reason not to do the thing you wanted them to do. Or … maybe not.
Then we can really get angry.
(Note: Steamer projections from FanGraphs are used at the individual player level and serve as the inputs to my team projection model. Playing time estimates are mine.)
Arizona Diamondbacks
Why the heck didn’t the Diamondbacks get a lockdown closer?
Why the heck they didn’t: This is only the first team on an alphabetical list, so you might see this concern appear a couple more times. In a general, industry-level sense, the response could be the same — unless you have one of the best of the best at that end-of-game role, it’s kind of passé to anoint a dude for a job he might have a 50/50 chance of even holding down. So if you’re into fantasy baseball, well, that’s too bad, but it’s just the current way of the hardball world.
As for the Diamondbacks, the problem here isn’t that there is no Rollie Fingers on the roster, but that there aren’t enough Darold Knowles. (Look it up.) In other words, Arizona has some big arms in A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez. Since they throw with different arms, they give Torey Lovullo the luxury of matching the pitcher with the situation in high-leverage spots. Both are, in effect, lockdown closer types in terms of stuff. Kevin Ginkel is near that level as well.
The bigger concern is the depth of Arizona’s bullpen options, which is why we saw the late-hot stove signing of injury returnee Kendall Graveman. The D-backs have a deep rotation, and spillover from that group should help cover some of the bullpen load. But staffing the bullpen will be a season-long project for Mike Hazen & Co.
Athletics
Why the heck didn’t the Athletics get the next Rickey Henderson?
Why the heck they didn’t: First off, there can only be one and we honor him by invoking his name here. The thing is, Henderson’s skill set is kind of what the Athletics’ potentially exciting offense needs. Overall, the A’s project to have an attack that’s just below average but has a foundation of plenty of homers and isolated power.
However, this strength is undermined by a lack of speed on the basepaths and some of the worst plate discipline indicators in the majors. The best A’s teams have often been take-and-rake clubs, but this group looks more all-or-nothing. In other words, they could really use someone like Henderson.
Well, that’s not happening. But as the roster evolves, every upgrade in OBP the Athletics can make will help that overall level of power pay off. If those upgrades happen to come from someone who is a threat on the bases as well, that’d be a nice way to honor Henderson.
Atlanta Braves
Why the heck didn’t the Braves get a Max Fried replacement?
Why the heck they didn’t: Let’s start with a bright side, which is that the Braves project to be as strong offensively as any team in baseball. Some of that is expected positive regression from the likes of Matt Olson and Austin Riley, and the can’t-come-soon-enough return of Ronald Acuna Jr. Regression to the mean is a statistical likelihood, but it is not destiny. Still, turning the scoreboard should not be a problem in Atlanta this season.
As for that Fried-less rotation, the Braves’ fallow winter is a bit confusing and concerning in equal measures. Reportedly they did try, going after Nathan Eovaldi, among others. They missed, but that doesn’t mean it won’t work out.
First of all, Spencer Strider will be back after missing most of 2024 because of a UCL injury. Talk about disappointments — Strider went from 20 wins in 2023 to zero. It’s unclear when Strider’s return will actually happen and even when it does, there is no certainty that he will immediately resume the superstar trek he was on. Still, let’s call him the Fried replacement.
The concern then turns to what’s on the depth chart after Strider, Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez and Spencer Schwellenbach. To that, we simply point to Schwellenbach as an avatar of the Braves’ ongoing ability to develop pitchers. No one was really talking about him at this time last year; now he’s viewed as a rotation fixture. This is the reason Atlanta did not overextend in free agency.
Baltimore Orioles
Why the heck didn’t the Orioles get a Corbin Burnes replacement — or Corbin Burnes?
Why the heck they didn’t: They tried. The Orioles were attached to most of the winter’s top rotation acquisition targets, including Burnes, but Baltimore came out of the offseason without a true No. 1 starter. But it’s only February and October is a long way off.
It feels like this roster need has been at the top for the O’s ever since they came out of their rebuild, save for last season when they landed Burnes and watched him challenge for the American League Cy Young Award. The additions of Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano fill out the depth chart, and on a loaded club, the starting staff should be adequate.
A lot could happen. Maybe the Padres decide to move Dylan Cease, or the whispers of Seattle listening on Luis Castillo resume. Maybe Grayson Rodriguez turns a corner, going from good to great. Maybe the whole landscape looks more promising when the trade deadline approaches.
The Orioles behaved this winter like a team that knew it could use a No. 1 starter. They did not behave like a team desperate to land one at any cost. That more than anything might reassure anxious Baltimore fans, because it’s easy to overthink this. The Orioles are still well-positioned for another postseason run.
Boston Red Sox
Why the heck didn’t the Red Sox get buy-in from Rafael Devers?
Why the heck they didn’t: Winning cures all ills.
Boston’s camp opened with the offseason-making news that Alex Bregman had signed on. Then almost immediately, Devers threw a bit of tepid water on the happy news by getting territorial about third base. Boston’s infield is a puzzle, but that’s only a problem when the options are poor. That’s not the case here. Besides, as Devers pointed out, no one’s actually asked him to change positions yet.
This will work out. The bigger concern about Boston is what looks like a collective shortcoming against left-handed pitching. Bregman addresses that ailment, but he doesn’t cure it. The Red Sox still seem light on righty bats.
Ah, but there’s a solution: If hotshot prospect Kristian Campbell looks big league ready this spring, he might immediately become Boston’s second-best right-handed hitter. This would also further complicate Alex Cora’s defensive alignment problem, as Campbell is yet another infielder. These are still good problems to have. That doesn’t mean they are necessarily that easy to solve.
Chicago Cubs
Why the heck didn’t the Cubs get Alex Bregman?
Why the heck they didn’t: Clearly, they didn’t offer Bregman a good enough contract. Simple enough. The question isn’t really about Bregman but more why the Cubs seem so unwilling to get aggressive with their payroll. There’s a big difference between aggressive and reckless, and you can’t really encourage the latter. Also, teams are going to have periods of payroll expansion and retrenchment, and it’s only through a longer timeline that you can see whether or not a club is really making full use of its spending capacity. At this point, it’s really hard to say the Cubs are doing that. They are, after all, a top-five revenue team working on a fourth straight year of being a second-tier spender.
As for whether the Cubs are facing yet another season in their ongoing quest for a first-division third baseman, that might depend on top prospect Matt Shaw. Shaw has all the tools, but he’s also yet to play in a big league game. For now, the Cubs should be fine in a soft division that is there for the taking. The bigger question might be written here a year from now: Why the heck didn’t the Cubs keep Kyle Tucker for more than one season?
Chicago White Sox
Why the heck didn’t the White Sox get a taker for Luis Robert Jr.?
Why the heck they didn’t: Look, a lot of fans are completists. The White Sox, while crumbling into baseball’s all-time worst team in 2024, traded just about everybody who could be traded. The big exception to that purge was Robert, perhaps the most talented player from Chicago’s recent and too-short window of contention. There hasn’t been much good news for White Sox fans over the last couple of years, but this could be very good news.
The basic problem is that Robert wasn’t very good last year. He missed 62 games, and his career-low 87 OPS+ was down from 130 in 2023. He ran well after coming back from a hip injury, so it wasn’t that. He just didn’t hit. Robert has never developed any semblance of plate discipline and, at this point, you just have to think he is what he is.
But that’s still a really good player when Robert is going well. Entering his age-27 season on a team-friendly contract, a resurgent Robert could be the most coveted player of anyone at the deadline. Because Robert has two club options left on his deal beyond 2025, the White Sox have leverage. They can hold onto him in July and still have multiple chances to convert Robert’s remaining prime into a big haul of future value. All that needs to happen is for Robert to perform. Then the list of traded former White Sox standouts will be complete.
Cincinnati Reds
Why the heck didn’t the Reds get a run-producing outfielder (or two, or three)?
Why the heck they didn’t: Where have you gone, Adam Dunn?
The Reds have a below-average profile on offense across the board, but in one of baseball’s most forgiving offensive home environments, it’s a puzzle why they don’t target or develop hitters who can better take advantage of it. Offseason signee Austin Hays might help, but he’s not a solution to this problem.
The Reds have a strange-fitting roster, with a lot of players who can be moved around the field and a mix of hitters from both sides of the plate. It’ll be up to Terry Francona to sort it out, and there aren’t many skippers you’d rather have in charge of that kind of project. It’s not really an answer to our question but, for now, it’s the best we’ve got.
Cleveland Guardians
Why the heck didn’t the Guardians get Luis Robert Jr.?
Why the heck they didn’t: See what I did there?
Sure, the White Sox might not be thrilled about dealing their most valuable remaining trade candidate to a division rival, but if the talent they’d get back works, they are in no position to demur. Meanwhile, Cleveland is in good position to take a big swing on a deal. And, goodness knows, the Guardians are in a good spot to cover Robert’s contract.
Cleveland has Chase DeLauter looming as its center fielder of the near future, and that’s great. But he has all of six games of Triple-A ball under his belt. They have Jaison Chourio as a longer-term prospect for the position. He’s just 19. The Guardians can’t keep fixating on the prospect horizon forever. This is a team that finished one rung shy of the 2024 World Series.
Maybe it’s not going to be Robert, but the Guardians are just one of a few AL Central teams one big move away from establishing themselves as a clear-cut favorite in the division. Robert has MVP-esque upside at his best, and even if he doesn’t work out, he’s still got those club options left after 2025. It’s a big swing, but if you haven’t heard, the Guardians haven’t won a title since 1948.
Colorado Rockies
Why the heck didn’t the Rockies get better?
Why the heck they didn’t: Having a better record than you did the year before likely means your team is better. But that’s not always the case. The Rockies have lost 298 games over the past three years and while last year’s 101 defeats were a better total than 2023’s 103 losses, no one was holding any parades for the Rox in Denver.
It just seems like the arrow has to start pointing up at some juncture, but right now, it isn’t. My system has the Rockies losing 104.7 games in the average simulation and that’s just mind-boggling. Yet when you look at their roster, as compared to last year, it’s hard to poke holes in that forecast.
The Rockies can still find good players. They have some right now, particularly Ezequiel Tovar and Brenton Doyle. Supposedly, there are some prospects who might start pushing their way to join them. Until it happens, the outlook in Colorado remains too murky to make any specific suggestion.
These aren’t soothing words, but reality is reality.
Detroit Tigers
Why the heck didn’t the Tigers get another bat?
Why the heck they didn’t: The Tigers went hard after Bregman but he wound up in Boston. Them’s the breaks. Bregman would have been a perfect fit in Detroit, not just a catalyst in the clubhouse of a young club but a much-needed righty bat. That’s a real need — the Tigers project to struggle against lefty pitchers as much as any offense in baseball.
The Tigers are in a good spot, though, and they seem to have a realistic view of themselves. They have the potential for a really exciting rotation and even through the latest rebuild, Detroit usually managed to piece together viable bullpens. The position group has the upside of youth — Riley Greene, Parker Meadows, Colt Keith, Jace Jung, Trey Sweeney — and as the season opens, that will have to suffice.
The good thing is there are lots of ways to tack onto this roster as the season progresses. Maybe Javier Baez and/or Spencer Torkelson find themselves and help solve that hitting-against-southpaws issue. Maybe they can still add: Seems like one-time Tiger J.D. Martinez could fit as a semi-regular DH. Whatever happens, the Tigers are headed to an exciting place, and there are still lots of options for augmenting their upswing.
Houston Astros
Why the heck didn’t the Astros get an outfielder?
Why the heck they didn’t: There are a number of teams on which one big outfield bat would have had more than a marginal impact. Maybe there just aren’t enough good outfielders right now. The Astros traded a very good outfielder in Tucker. They didn’t get one back.
The idea of playing Jose Altuve in left field is creative, but we need to see it work before it’s really the answer to the query. One player to watch in this scenario is Houston’s newest pickup, non-roster invite Brendan Rodgers. Once an elite prospect, Rodgers never put it all together in Colorado. This will be his first exposure to a different organization, and if the Astros succeed where the Rockies did not, then forcing the Altuve position switch would be a lot more inviting.
Kansas City Royals
Why the heck didn’t the Royals get a power outfield bat?
Why the heck they didn’t: Again with the outfield bat! The Royals are probably the most egregious example of a team coming up short in its outfielder quest, because Kansas City had so much to gain from the right pickup.
Kansas City’s outfield offense in 2024 was dreadful — a .648 OPS among the three spots, 27th in the majors. Somehow the outfield depth chart right now looks almost identical to what it did a year ago at this time. Of course, reports were the Royals tried to make a splash in this department, making an aggressive but not aggressive enough offer to Anthony Santander. That doesn’t change the depth chart.
The Royals are hoping that a quieted down swing load by MJ Melendez will help him make a leap. They are giving outfield reps to non-outfielders like Jonathan India. The notion of giving outfield reps to non-outfielders seems to be all the rage. Assuming this doesn’t add up to a real solution, the Royals will remain on the hunt for an impact bat who plays on the grass all summer.
You can kind of get a sense by now why I’m monitoring Robert so closely in Chicago. There are a lot of teams that could use his talents.
Los Angeles Angels
Why the heck didn’t the Angels get Juan Soto?
Why the heck they didn’t: OK, we’re not being exactly literal with the Soto question, but there’s a point to be made. Other iterations of the Angels through their history might have been gung-ho in a pursuit of Soto and the other leading lights of free agency. But the Halos are taking a different approach in an effort to maybe, just maybe, get back to relevance while Mike Trout is still a going proposition.
The Angels were super aggressive over the winter in adding recognizable players, few of whom would slot in the top 10 spots of many big league rosters. In other words, the Angels, so often a top-heavy organization with star power and little depth, sought to build out its depth in a big way.
While it remains to be seen if the Angels’ quantity will add up to enough quality, it’s an interesting experiment. The Angels will still need contention-worthy production from the top of its roster. Depth is great, but if it’s not supporting anything, you’re just bad and boring. The Angels are banking on Trout (mostly) staying on the field and the remaining upside coming from young bats like Zach Neto, Nolan Schanuel and Christian Moore.
On paper, it doesn’t move the needle, but at least there is a strategy in play here. That much makes this a more interesting Angels team than the one a year ago.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Why the heck didn’t the Dodgers get Juan Soto?
Why the heck they didn’t: They were being nice! Why sign literally everybody?
Anyway, the Dodgers’ pivot from Soto to Blake Snell, Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates, Teoscar Hernandez, a Tommy Edman extension, Michael Conforto, Hyeseong Kim and Roki Sasaki might work out fine, too.
Miami Marlins
Why the heck didn’t the Marlins get some stability?
Why the heck they didn’t: Because they are the Marlins. Under second-year lead executive Peter Bendix, the Marlins are deep into yet another rebuild that began while they were actually playoff contenders. This team changes its face more often than Arya Stark. It’s the Miami way. The all-time leader in bWAR for Marlins among those who never appeared in the majors for another team is the late Jose Fernandez — with 14.2.
We’re skirting the question, of course, because the Marlins aren’t in a position where one shortcoming is going to stand out. They’ve built up their prospect depth again and are in position to add to it over the next couple of years. When it comes together, we might see the next Marlins team pushing into October. Then, based on historical patterns, we can expect to see the cycle begin all over again.
Milwaukee Brewers
Why the heck didn’t the Brewers get a lefty power bat?
Why the heck they didn’t: The Brewers have morphed from a team with a lot of power to one with elite athleticism. That fuels a terrific team defense that backs Milwaukee’s consistently solid pitching program and — voilà! — you have a run prevention power coming off 93 wins and a division title.
Still, in a park-neutral context, the Brewers project to have one of baseball’s lowest isolated power figures. There’s also some imbalance in the mix, with the outlook against lefties looking more robust than against righties. The solution in both areas would therefore be a lefty-hitting power hitter. Why the heck didn’t the Brewers get Juan Soto?
As ever, I have to acknowledge that my prescriptions for the Brewers rarely match with what they themselves think they need. They don’t even necessarily see the same problems. However, if I’m onto something, this would be an in-season pursuit with avenues to add these traits at both first base and DH.
Or maybe Jackson Chourio will turn out to be just that good, making these little shortcomings beside the point.
Minnesota Twins
Why the heck didn’t the Twins get Beverly Crusher?
Why the heck they didn’t: You know, the ship doctor from Star Trek: The Next Generation. If she were around, every time one of the Twins’ stars turned up lame, she’d wave around that little electric box and they’d be instantly healed.
I really like the Twins’ roster. It’s deep, balanced and the depth consists of a solid group of prospects who will push those blocking them higher up in the system. The pitching staff looks deep in both the rotation and bullpen, though the starting staff is less star-laden than some recent editions.
But so much still depends on the top of the roster staying on the field: Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa. If that happens, this Twins team can be really good. If it doesn’t, the Twins can still compete in a tepid division, but you’d have to start to wonder how long they can go on like this.
New York Mets
Why the heck didn’t the Mets get an ace?
Why the heck they didn’t: David Stearns was ahead of me, telling reporters last week that the winter plan was to target rotation depth. So rather than Blake Snell or even a Justin Verlander or Max Scherzer reunion, it’s the returning Sean Manaea, conversion project Clay Holmes, Griffin Canning and the already-injured Frankie Montas.
Based on the Mets’ first year under Stearns, they’ve earned the benefit of the doubt. Whatever the staff looks like in forecasts, you can expect them to be a little better. (They don’t look that great in the forecasts.) Still, these are the Mets, and when New York has had great teams, starting pitching has been at the forefront.
For now, though, it’s depth, not stars. And a Soto-led offense that looks like it’s going to score a whole lot of runs. Because this is the team that did get Juan Soto.
New York Yankees
Why the heck didn’t the Yankees get a third baseman?
Why the heck they didn’t: No, we didn’t go back to the Soto well. This version of the story has been told often enough. The Yankees earned plenty of praise for what they did after Soto picked the Mets, and the compliments were deserved. The Bombers enter the season as the favorite to win the AL pennant. Not overwhelming favorites, but favorites nonetheless.
For all the work the Yankees did in their Soto pivot, it feels like they came up one move short when you glance at third base. For now, it looks like New York will bank on improvement from Oswaldo Cabrera and some measure of resurgence from DJ LeMahieu to hold down the position.
New York was rumored to be in the market for a more substantial solution, but it didn’t work out. Stay tuned. If the projections for the AL are on target, the Yankees might potentially find themselves in a crowded three-, four- or even five-team battle royale in their own division. So every hole in that context will be glaring.
Philadelphia Phillies
Why the heck didn’t the Phillies get more for the bullpen?
Why the heck they didn’t: It’s not so much the back of the bullpen as it is the middle of it. Philly lost key contributors like Carlos Estevez and Jeff Hoffman from last year’s pen, leaving the returning group thin. If new closer Jordan Romano doesn’t bounce back from a subpar season in Toronto, things could unravel.
Right now, the Phillies project to have a top bullpen, so obviously this isn’t a red-flag problem. But Philadelphia has a very complete overall roster, one more than capable of winning the World Series. Nothing can kneecap a strong team quicker than a spate of bullpen problems.
If the Phillies can get this group intact and fully functional into October, perhaps bolstered by prospect Andrew Painter moving to a relief role, all will be well. I’d feel better about the chances of that happening if Dave Dombrowski were to continue to iterate this group as the season goes along.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why the heck didn’t the Pirates get some freaking offense?
Why the heck they didn’t: Do I sound angry? I’m not angry. OK, yes I am. I’m angry at the Pirates. Paul Skenes has been the talk of baseball for a while at this point, but if the overall Pittsburgh rotation blossoms around him as it might, it would be one of the great stories in baseball. And it would not be a surprise. This is how the Pirates were built, and Skenes is the catalyst for what this era of Pittsburgh baseball can become — and soon. The future is right freaking now.
I’ve got the Cubs as the NL Central favorite, with a modest 84.9 wins in the simulations. That’s 84.9 — 85-77, when rounded. The door is wide open for every team in the division. None of them seem to want to get particularly close to it. The Pirates are the worst of the bunch when it comes to self-imposed austerity.
The Pirates offense projects as the fourth-worst in the majors. The three worst attacks are from teams angling for the next top pick: the Rockies, White Sox and Marlins. This is depressing, but it also means every significant addition has a lot of marginal value when it comes to the playoff race.
It is highly frustrating. Wait, am I supposed to be reassuring Pirates fans? Oh, yes. Hey, have you seen that rotation?
San Diego Padres
Why the heck didn’t the Padres get some patience?
Why the heck they didn’t: This is an ironic question. The Padres currently project to finish dead last in walks. It wasn’t a team strength in 2024, then San Diego lost two of its walk leaders during the winter in Jurickson Profar and Ha-Seong Kim. A painfully slow start in making offseason moves — a certain kind of patience, hence the irony — left San Diego with limited options.
A lot of this is by design. The Padres have a group of aggressive swingers who get the bat on the ball. Despite the lack of walks, San Diego projects to lead the majors in park-adjusted average while striking out less than any other club. The Padres produce enough pop on all that contact that the attack should be well above average.
Still, you like to see a good mix of skill sets in a lineup. The Padres might be able to upgrade at DH and left field as the season goes along, and if they do, some patience should be at the top of the wish list.
San Francisco Giants
Why the heck didn’t the Giants get a slugging first baseman?
Why the heck they didn’t:LaMonte Wade Jr. has a lot to offer, but he’s projected to slug under .400, in a park-neutral context. That’s not a first-division figure for a first baseman. Wade does get on base, and that’s an overall weakness for the Giants. Still, a bona fide slugger — Pete Alonso would have been nice — would really make this promising roster come into focus.
The Giants are in a precarious spot. They are a middling team in a top-heavy league. They need to overachieve their forecast while hoping that more than one of the favorites for the bracket — San Diego, Philadelphia, Arizona, the Mets — stumble. If San Francisco hangs close, an all-out pursuit of someone like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. would be exciting. (That’s if he is a trade candidate, which likely depends on Toronto faltering in the AL.)
Seattle Mariners
Why the heck didn’t the Mariners get contact hitting?
Why the heck they didn’t: Like the Rockies, the Mariners’ forecasts are hard to interpret. Steamer produces park-neutral forecasts, which are very useful because while you can always try and black out park effects from a projection set, you never are quite sure what park factors the forecast was based on in the first place. For Seattle, the park-neutral projections tell an unsurprising story.
While T-Mobile Park makes Seattle’s offense look putrid, it’s probably more like below average than truly bad. It also has strengths. The M’s are near the top of the leaderboard in what you might call isolated patience — getting on base by means other than a base hit. There are a lot of stolen bases on the roster as well.
But year after year, this team just can’t make consistent enough contact to make it work. The whiff problem remains, with only the White Sox projected to post a worse strikeout rate. Yes, Seattle has a nice group of hitters rising up through its system. But the Mariners’ window — wide open because of perhaps baseball’s best rotation — is now. This winter did nothing to address the team’s biggest shortcomings.
St. Louis Cardinals
Why the heck didn’t the Cardinals get a clue?
Why the heck they didn’t: Sorry, that’s harsh. But what exactly are they doing in St. Louis? Even if this is truly just a transition season — a handing of the baton from John Mozeliak to Chaim Bloom — why are they talking about it so much? And if the idea is to truly make the roster lean and open up spots for young players, why did that not actually happen?
The Cardinals still project as a .500 team. If they’d actually tried this winter, they might be right there with the Cubs and Brewers as co-favorites in the division. Would doing so really have been so inconvenient for Bloom, who is already working there, by the way, and surely has some input to all of this?
Say what you will about the Cardinals and a fan base that likes to tout itself so much, but they deserve better than a club that chose a season of limbo when it didn’t have to. Maybe if they find a taker for Nolan Arenado — and he agrees to go — all of this will start to make more sense.
Tampa Bay Rays
Why the heck didn’t the Rays get Babe Ruth?
Why the heck they didn’t: Seriously, that question has about as much value as any you could pose about the Rays. They get what they get; they do what they do. They’ve proved it works, so why complain that they didn’t sign Juan Soto? (Which they might have looked into, anyway. They are surprising like that at times.)
The Rays are going to catch the ball. If the much-improved health outlook of the rotation holds up, it’ll be a playoff-worthy group. The offense will lean on plate discipline and just enough walks from players whose defense is valued as much as their bats. The Rays bolstered their depth outlook by their in-season dealing last year and are well-positioned to return to playoff contention.
The one unit here that concerns me is a bullpen that looks full of question marks. If that’s the thing you think will hold back this year’s Rays, you haven’t been paying attention to this franchise for the last 10 to 15 years.
Texas Rangers
Why the heck didn’t the Rangers get a closer?
Why the heck they didn’t: Texas has so many reasons to be excited about the coming season it’s easy to overlook that depth chart in the bullpen. It’s been completely retooled since last season and, right now, there’s no clear indication of how the roles or even the pecking order is going to play out.
This is almost certainly an organizational preference. Chris Young has been around the bullpen merry-go-round a few times at this point and he’s come out ahead more than most. Who’s going to close? Take your pick: Chris Martin, Robert Garcia, Luke Jackson, maybe someone picked up midseason.
For the Rangers, the key is to make this a problem that actually matters if it really turns out to be a problem. Because the rest of the team looks loaded.
Toronto Blue Jays
Why the heck didn’t the Blue Jays get so many of their top targets?
Why the heck they didn’t: This is really a big-picture dilemma for the Blue Jays to investigate. Whether it’s Soto or Suzuki or Bregman, they seem to be runners-up again and again, even when they are willing to go above what the market is putting forth.
Really, it’s hard to understand why. Great city. Great fans. Top-notch ballpark. Whatever it is, the Blue Jays need to figure it out, especially if things go south early in the season and Toronto ends up dealing Guerrero.
In the meantime, Toronto made enough pivots that this can be a successful season. But as I’ve written before, the range of outcomes for this year’s Blue Jays is perhaps wider than for any other team. They could be very good. They could be akin to a door slamming.
Washington Nationals
Why the heck didn’t the Nationals get more aggressive?
Why the heck they didn’t: Washington just isn’t quite there.
James Wood looks great; he’s still potential, not production. Dylan Crews saw his first big league action but struggled. CJ Abrams was a star for much of the season, then faded badly during the second half. The Nats are full of such stories. Mike Rizzo needs this team to declare itself before he can plunge in. When a talent core is ready to be augmented, we’ve seen Rizzo willing to get bold.
This isn’t a sad situation in Washington by any stretch. It could come together quickly. With youth comes variability and with really talented youth comes a high ceiling. If it happens fast, maybe the Nats all of a sudden are in position to go into add mode as soon as this year’s deadline. Either way, better times are coming.
