MLB 2025 free agency: Alex Bregman’s strengths, concerns, best fits
Alex Bregman has been one of the best players in baseball since his first full season with the Houston Astros in 2017, helping them to eight consecutive trips to the playoffs and two World Series titles. He ranks 10th among position players in WAR since 2017, he’s a two-time All-Star, an MVP runner-up and just won his first Gold Glove.
He’s the kind of player every team and every manager would love to have, not just for his production but for the intangibles he brings. A.J. Hinch, then the manager of the Astros, once told ESPN: “I’ve never been around a player who enjoys playing baseball as much as Alex Bregman.”
Bregman has been a consistent performer the past three seasons, averaging 4.5 WAR, 25 home runs and 89 RBIs. While that doesn’t match his 2018-19 peak, that’s still good enough to make him one of the top 25 position players in the sport. And there are teams that need a third baseman: 14 teams in 2024 received an OPS under .700 from third base.
Going into the offseason, Kiley McDaniel had him at No. 5 in his free agent rankings with a projected contract of six years, $187 million.
Yet, it’s February, with spring training just around the corner and Bregman remains unsigned, a little perplexing for a player with his credentials. Of course, teams are paying for what Bregman is going to do in the future — and there are some red flags for a player who reportedly turned down a six-year, $156 million offer from the Astros in December. Those have perhaps made teams hesitant to match Bregman’s asking price.
We’ve detailed the All-Star veteran’s strengths, so let’s dig into those red flags and which teams are a best fit.
The concerns
1. Bregman turns 31 in March.
I’ll keep hammering this because it’s one of the most important facets of understanding baseball circa 2025: It’s a young man’s game. Bregman was worth 4.1 WAR in 2024, via Baseball-Reference, in his age-30 season. There were only nine players 31 or older who had 4-plus WAR in 2024. All those except Marcus Semien were better hitters than Bregman. That total wasn’t a fluke. In 2023, there were just four such players. In 2022, there were nine. In 2021, just six. What’s Bregman’s value going to be in 2025, let alone 2029 or 2030?
2. There are concerns about the shape of Bregman’s offensive game in 2024, even outside of those aging trends.
Consider that in his near-MVP season in 2019 he drew a league-leading 119 walks, walking 17.3% of the time. He had maintained high walk rates until last season, when it plummeted to just 6.9%, resulting in a career-low .315 OBP. He was clearly more aggressive, swinging more often not only at the first pitch but in general. That did produce his highest hard-hit rate (51st percentile) since 2018, but it didn’t lead to any improvement in his batting average (.260) or slugging (26 home runs).
3. There has been some general decline in his athleticism.
While he ran well when he first reached the majors, he’s now a below-average runner. Despite the Gold Glove, his arm is also below average. And he had surgery after the season to remove bone chips from his elbow. He’s not the most physical player, so clubs will wonder what happens to his bat speed (41st percentile in 2024) as he ages.
Now, to be fair here, he did improve during this past season. He went without a home run in his first 25 games and had a .652 OPS at the end of May. Over the final four months, he hit .284/.337/.500 — still a low OBP for him, but at least he was generating more power. A good defensive third baseman with an .837 OPS can still be a 4-win player.
So, as hard-nosed as Bregman is, as much as he loves playing baseball, as much as he still has a great hit tool, there is a risk here that he’s more of a good player over the life of a potential six-year deal as opposed to an All-Star-level player. On the other hand, if you want to bet on a player who will figure out how to maintain his production as he ages, it’s Bregman. He’s similar to Justin Turner as a hitter and Turner averaged 4.8 WAR from ages 31 to 34.
Now let’s go through the teams most linked to Bregman.
Best fits
Houston Astros
Why they should sign him: Through the years, the Astros have slowly hemorrhaged star players — Gerrit Cole, George Springer, Carlos Correa, Justin Verlander (they later reacquired Verlander) — and then this offseason, they traded Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs. That’s an amazing loss of star power. Though they won the American League West in 2024, they did it with just 88 wins — and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranked the Astros’ farm system the worst in the majors.
In other words, the Astros need Bregman. He’s a good player on a team that needs a good player. The Astros tradedRyan Pressly and his $14 million salary, ostensibly giving them a little more room to sign Bregman. Plus, Bregman belongs in Houston. He and his wife are very involved in the community and he and Jose Altuve are the only players remaining from the dawn of their dynasty. He should remain a lifetime Astro.
Why they shouldn’t sign him: After trading for Isaac Paredes to play third base and signing Christian Walker to play first, there would be a positional logjam. Prospect Cam Smith, acquired in the Tucker trade, might also be a third baseman (although, he could shift to the outfield). I’m not buying the idea of moving Altuve to left field to play Bregman at second. Altuve can’t throw, has below-average speed and has never played on the grass. Neither has Paredes, and he’s slower than Altuve. If Bregman returns, it is more likely Yordan Alvarez will play a little more left field — a suboptimal solution — or Paredes is traded or turns into a utility player, filling in at DH, third, second and first.
Why they should sign him: The Blue Jays reportedly offered Bregman a six-year contract. Though they’ve been rejected in their biggest free agent pursuits — Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Roki Sasaki — they’re still trying to build a winner around Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and convince him to sign a long-term extension before he hits free agency next offseason. This winter, they’ve signed Anthony Santander, traded for Andres Gimenez and added Jeff Hoffman and Max Scherzer to the pitching staff. Maybe Bregman will be the big fish they can lure to Toronto.
Third base is occupied by Ernie Clement, a career journeyman who had a 3.4-WAR season in 2024 at age 28 — thanks, in large part, to some excellent defensive metrics at third base and shortstop. Though Clement has elite contact ability, he pairs that with poor swing decisions and low hard-hit rates. He works best as a utility player, and Bregman fits the roster better than Pete Alonso, another free agent the Jays are pursuing — but one who would force Guerrero to move to third base … which isn’t the brightest idea.
Why they shouldn’t sign him: What if Vlad doesn’t sign with the Blue Jays? And Bo Bichette also leaves? Then, you’re suddenly left with an offense in 2026 built around a 32-year-old Bregman and 31-year-old Santander — with a farm system ranked 24th in the majors. There’s nothing wrong with trying to go all-in for 2025, but even signing Bregman hardly guarantees a playoff spot. And given the age of the rotation, the whole thing could implode and lead to a difficult rebuilding period in Toronto.
Why they should sign him: The young Tigers could benefit from Bregman’s leadership and winning ways — not to mention his bat, given they ranked 20th in the majors in runs scored in 2024 (and the pre-2024 version of Bregman would provide some needed on-base skills). They have the payroll room to bring in Bregman — the Tigers ranked 28th in payroll last season and aren’t much higher after a slow offseason, during which they signed Alex Cobb, Gleyber Torres and Tommy Kahnle to one-year deals. Detroit third basemen hit .234/.294/.349 with 11 home runs in 2024 and though Jace Jung is a decent prospect, he’s hardly a reason not to sign Bregman. And Hinch, the manager in Detroit, would get to reunite with one of his favorite players.
Why they shouldn’t sign him: How will Bregman’s bat play in spacious Comerica Park? As a pull hitter, he was a nice fit at Minute Maid Park and the easy-to-reach Crawford Boxes in left field — although his career numbers are pretty even between home and road (.846 OPS at home, .850 on the road). Comerica might cost him a few cheap home runs, but the added room in the outfield might lead to a few more doubles and base hits. But Bregman hasn’t hit well in Detroit in his career: .227/.281/.421 in 21 games — and remember, for most of those years, the Tigers had bad pitching staffs.
Why they should sign him: Unlike Comerica, Bregman has hit well at Fenway Park: .375/.490/.750 with seven home runs in 21 regular-season games. Yes, a small sample size, but Bregman’s swing is clearly perfect for Fenway. Plus, the Red Sox need a right-handed hitter because their top five hitters all bat from the left side. They should have payroll space to sign Bregman, even if these aren’t the win-at-all-costs Red Sox they were under Dave Dombrowski. Their payroll is a little below where it was last season — and well below where it was from 2016 to 2019. If Boston doesn’t want to move Rafael Devers off third base, Bregman has the skills and baseball acumen to handle second base.
Why they shouldn’t sign him: Everyone has tried to direct Bregman to the Red Sox this offseason, but it hasn’t happened yet — maybe for good reason. Though Devers is hardly a stellar third baseman, he’s playable there, and the Red Sox have two top infield prospects in Marcelo Mayer (No. 4 on Kiley’s Top 100 list) and Kristian Campbell (No. 26) close to ready for the majors (not to mention Trevor Story, who is signed for three more years).
Signing Bregman for $150 million or whatever it might be and moving him from his regular position to block two excellent prospects doesn’t make sense. If you can trade Triston Casas or are willing to bump Devers to DH and play Masataka Yoshida in left field (where he’s not good), it could still work out, but maybe it makes more sense to spend that money on pitching or for a more impactful free agent next year (such as Tucker or Guerrero).
Why they should sign him: The Cubs made the hyper-aggressive move to acquire Tucker, but they still retain payroll flexibility, sitting well below the tax threshold (after going slightly over it in 2024 and paying $570,000 in luxury tax). Of course, the Cubs are struggling to break even, according to owner Tom Ricketts, so maybe that $570,000 is very important to him. Though they added Tucker, they traded away Cody Bellinger and this is already a team that projects to get only league-average offense from second base and shortstop and below-average offense at catcher and center field. And their best option at third base now on the 40-man roster is Jon Berti.
Why they shouldn’t sign him: That phrasing on the 40-man roster was specific because the Cubs have another option at third base — Matt Shaw, No. 23 on the Top 100 prospects list. He hit well in 35 games in Triple-A (.298/.395/.534), so it looks like he might be ready for Opening Day. Signing Bregman unnecessarily blocks Shaw, although an infield with Bregman, Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner would chew up ground balls and help the pitching staff.
Why they should sign him: This is a long shot because the Dodgers have Max Muncy at third base and signed Korea’s Hyeseong Kim, who’s penciled in at second. But play this out. Muncy is signed for one more year, though the Dodgers hold a club option for 2016. Kim doesn’t have much power, so there’s a chance he struggles at the plate and he’s more of a utility infielder than a regular.
The Dodgers also have more than $49 million coming off the books after 2025 in Muncy, Chris Taylor, Miguel Rojas and Michael Conforto. Bregman gives them a much better contact hitter for the middle of the lineup compared with Muncy and Teoscar Hernandez — and contact hitting is a huge key in the postseason. Yes, for one season it would be a bit of a logjam with Bregman, Muncy and Kim, but there are plenty of at-bats to go around.
Why they shouldn’t sign him: This is just silly. Even the Dodgers, who’ve gone on another offseason spending spree, have their limits … right? Plus, the last thing they want is to lock themselves into another long-term deal for a 30-something hitter given Shohei Ohtani is signed through 2033, Mookie Betts through 2032 and Freddie Freeman and Hernandez through 2027. The Dodgers have been judicious about who gets these deals and Ohtani, Betts and Freeman are on a different level as hitters than Bregman. Plus, the Dodgers have a good prospect in shortstop Alex Freeland (No. 37), who should be ready for the majors in 2026. No need to pay Bregman big money when a minimum-salaried rookie could replace Muncy next year.
