MLB 2024-25 free agency: One big move for every team
It’s time for our annual offseason tradition, served up with your turkey and cranberry sauce: predicting one big move for all 30 MLB teams.
It’s difficult to do this for every club, since we try to be reasonable and realistic, and several teams already appear to be maxed out — or close to it — on their payroll, limiting their ability to sign a major free agent or make a splashy trade. But here goes.
This year’s guidelines:
1. A player can sign only once. Signing Juan Soto would be a big move for every team, but only one will sign him in the end.
2. Each team is used for just one big move (although a team like the Mets will certainly have several big moves). For this exercise, that means a team can’t sign a free agent and also make a big trade.
3. No re-signing of free agents, so we don’t have Soto going back to the Yankees, Alex Bregman returning to the Astros, Pete Alonso rejoining the Mets and so on.
Why that last restriction? Yes, the Yankees hope to re-sign Soto as they did Aaron Judge two years ago, but that rarely happens. Of the top 20 free agents from each of the past three years, only eight of the 60 re-signed with the same team — Cody Bellinger and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. last year; Judge, Carlos Correa, Brandon Nimmo and Anthony Rizzo in 2022-23; and Clayton Kershaw and Raisel Iglesias in 2021-22. (And Correa went back to the Twins only after the Giants and Mets both backed out of deals.)
The goal is to examine the offseason and understand the potential domino effect of what is really a wild game of musical chairs. We’ll include Kiley McDaniel’s contract projections from his top 50 free agents ranking for each player. We start, of course, with the biggest fish on the market.
Teams chasing Juan Soto
New York Mets sign OF Juan Soto (13 years, $611 million)
The Mets have a lot of holes to fill, with so many players in free agency — including Alonso and three-fifths of a starting rotation in Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana and Luis Severino — but they are positioned to reload because their payroll currently sits at about $160 million, or less than half of their 2024 total of $336 million.
“We’ve got financial flexibility,” president of baseball operations David Stearns said at his end-of-season news conference, in what was the understatement of the offseason. With owner Steve Cohen’s checkbook, money isn’t an issue — indeed, if the Mets decide they must have Soto, it’s hard to imagine any team, including the Yankees, outbidding Cohen.
Aside from his obvious greatness as a hitter, there are logical reasons to pursue Soto. Look at the core ages of the Mets’ hitters: Francisco Lindor is entering his age-31 season, Brandon Nimmo will be 32, Jeff McNeil will be 33 and Starling Marte will be 36. If Alonso re-signs, he’ll be 30, coming off his worst season. At 26 years old, Soto gives the Mets a younger centerpiece around whom to build, alongside Mark Vientos and Francisco Alvarez. He also gives them another left-handed hitter to join Nimmo and the switch-hitting Lindor.
Even if Soto comes at that $47 million annual salary, plenty of payroll room will remain to sign a couple of starting pitchers and perhaps bring back Alonso as well — or, maybe, sign Alex Bregman or Willy Adames to play third base and slide Vientos over to first. (Or, one of my favorite ideas: Trade for Nolan Arenado, with the Cardinals picking up some of the remaining $74 million owed to him over the next three years).
New York Yankees sign SS/3B Willy Adames (7 years, $189 million)
How might the Yankees pivot if they don’t sign Soto? His departure would leave a gaping hole in the outfield, but they also have other big holes at first base and elsewhere in the infield with Gleyber Torres a free agent. Soto is irreplaceable on a one-for-one basis, so the Yankees would use the money meant for Soto to sign multiple players. Let’s start with Adames, who would shift from shortstop to third base, which would then give the Yankees the option to move Jazz Chisholm Jr. to either center field (with Aaron Judge sliding back to right) or second base.
If the Yankees keep Judge in center, switch-hitting Anthony Santander could be signed to play right field and help replace Soto’s power. Or they could sign a first baseman such as Alonso or Christian Walker. The Yankees have also been linked to starting pitchers, even though they have six solid starters under contract. They’ll also need to re-sign or replace Clay Holmes and Tommy Kahnle in the bullpen. The big strike against Adames: He comes with a high strikeout rate and has performed poorly in the postseason in his career (.216 with two home runs in 35 games).
Toronto Blue Jays sign RHP Corbin Burnes (7 years, $225 million)
The Blue Jays are in a precarious position as a franchise. They swung and missed on Shohei Ohtani last offseason and then went on to lose 88 games. This winter, they’re going after Soto, but if they fail to land him and then watch Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette depart as free agents after next season, it could be an ugly rebuilding period. So, they need to have a backup plan this time to be all-in for 2025. That means going after Burnes, the No. 2 player on our free agent board (or No. 3, if you include Roki Sasaki). Chris Bassitt is a free agent after 2025 and Kevin Gausman is too after 2026, so they’ll need a long-term reinforcement for the rotation. Sign Burnes, get a bounce-back season from Bichette, strengthen the bullpen and the Jays could jump back into playoff contention. And they should sign Guerrero while they’re at it.
Los Angeles Dodgers sign OF Tyler O’Neill (3 years, $50 million)
We had to pinch hit here: Our big move for the Dodgers was signing Blake Snell … and then they signed Blake Snell (or at least agreed to terms). Do the Dodgers have another major signing or trade? Sure. Re-signing Teoscar Hernandez is probably the priority here, especially if they are moving Mookie Bettsback to the infield. But the rules are we can’t do that, so let’s give the Dodgers another outfielder in O’Neill. He had a great bounce-back season with the Red Sox after dealing with some injuries the previous two years, slugging .511 with 31 home runs in 113 games in 2024. Like Hernandez, O’Neill crushed lefties, so he would be a nice fit in the lineup between Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy. And he’s a better outfielder than Hernandez.
Boston Red Sox sign LHP Max Fried (6 years, $175 million)
The Red Sox have now missed the playoffs three straight years and five out of six since winning the World Series in 2018, but they’re in good shape for the future with a nice core group of position players in Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran and Triston Casas, plus a loaded farm system. They’re also about $75 million below the tax threshold, although in recent years they haven’t spent the way they did in the Dave Dombrowski era.
Still, that gives them room to be creative — like making a serious run at Soto. Or they could sign Bregman, move Devers to first and use Casas in a trade, or let Devers and Casas split time at first and DH. They could trade prospects to help fortify their bullpen (or sign a free agent such as Kirby Yates or Tanner Scott). Or they could just sign a top-of-the rotation starter. The rotation was solid enough in 2024, ranking seventh in the majors in ERA, but Tanner Houck was the only regular with an ERA under 4.00, and Nick Pivetta is a free agent. None of their starters are left-handed, however, and Fried is a good fit for Fenway Park since he induces grounders so often.
Finding homes for the remaining top 10 free agents
San Diego Padres sign RHP Roki Sasaki ($5 million signing bonus)
Under international signing rules, Sasaki will have to sign a minor league contract and receive only a signing bonus that fits under each team’s international cap (commissioner Rob Manfred said last week that Sasaki probably won’t sign until after Jan. 15, which puts Sasaki into next year’s signing class, when everyone’s cap resets). In theory, that means any team can afford Sasaki. But where will he want to go? Does he want to play third fiddle on the Dodgers behind Ohtani and Yamamoto? Will he consider a team on the East Coast or Midwest or go to the West Coast to help maximize his marketing opportunities in Japan?
The Padres would be a great fit — and perhaps none of the likeliest suitors need Sasaki quite as much as the Padres. Their payroll is already close to maxed out, and that’s without re-signing Jurickson Profar or Ha-Seong Kim — two players they could use. Plus, Joe Musgrove will sit out 2025 after elbow surgery, so there is a need for a starter to challenge the Dodgers’ supremacy in the NL West.
Detroit Tigers sign 3B Alex Bregman (6 years, $187 million)
Though the rules of this exercise prevent us from having Bregman return to the Astros, Houston re-signing Bregman is far from a sure thing — especially if agent Scott Boras can get the figure past that $187 million estimate. And the Astros might need to use Bregman’s money to sign the younger (and better) Kyle Tucker, who is entering his walk year.
The Tigers, however, are a perfect fit for need, payroll space and relationships. Tigers third basemen ranked 22nd in the majors in OPS in 2024, hitting .234 with 11 home runs, and the offense ranked 29th overall in OBP. The Tigers have only two players who will make even $10 million in 2025 — Javier Baez and Kenta Maeda — so there is room to make a couple of significant moves (no doubt, they’ll be looking to add a starting pitcher, too). Bregman also first reached the majors when A.J. Hinch was managing the Astros. He’s not without risk, posting a career-low .315 OBP in 2024, and Scott Harris, Detroit’s president of baseball operations, will have to take a deep look at why Bregman’s walk rate plummeted from 12.7% to 6.9%. Still, Bregman has been a consistent 4-to-5 win player the past three years and should remain productive for several more.
Houston Astros sign OF Anthony Santander (3 years, $69 million)
Santander isn’t a top-10 free agent — he comes in at No. 12 — but this would be a ripple effect of losing Bregman. The Astros will need to replace that offense and don’t have any strong internal candidates, plus the outfield is thin beyond Tucker (aside from when Yordan Alvarez plays left field, but it’s time to just make him the full-time DH). Santander would fit in nicely in left and in the middle of the Houston lineup.
Washington Nationals sign 1B Pete Alonso (6 years, $159 million)
The Nationals should be poised to make a big splash in free agency — Keibert Ruiz is the only active player set to make more than $5 million in 2025 (the retired Stephen Strasburg will bring home $35 million). Most of the roster remains pre-arbitration. They’re an incredibly young team, and after ranking next-to-last in the majors in home runs, the Nats need a power hitter. Alonso would make a big statement — similar to the Jayson Werth signing in 2011 — and provide a veteran presence to help the young hitters such as James Wood and Dylan Crews while filling the hole at first base. Keep in mind that Boras, Alonso’s agent, has struck several big deals in the past with the Lerner family, the Nationals’ owners.
San Francisco Giants sign RHP Jack Flaherty (5 years, $115 million)
In one sense, the Giants already made two big moves, signing Matt Chapman to a $140 million extension in September to prevent his opt-out and then making Buster Posey, who was heavily involved in the Chapman talks, the new president of president operations. We don’t really know yet what Posey will emphasize as an executive, but considering he won World Series titles as a catcher with starting pitchers such as Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum anchoring the rotation, the best guess is he’ll believe you can never have enough pitching. The Giants were just 18th in the majors in rotation ERA — in a pitcher’s park, mind you — and will have to replace Snell if he signs elsewhere. Flaherty, coming off a strong rebound season, fits the bill.
Texas Rangers sign LHP Sean Manaea (4 years, $86 million)
A return to the Mets is certainly in play, but let’s give Manaea to the Rangers. Though the offense was the major reason for the Rangers finishing under .500 in their World Series title defense (they scored 198 fewer runs), they have to replace 96 starts from 2024. Some of those will be filled internally — Jacob deGrom, Tyler Mahle, Kumar Rocker, maybe Jack Leiter — but they still need someone they can pencil in as more of a sure thing. Manaea dominated after lowering his arm slot in late June — he held batters to a .181 average the rest of the way — and would give the Rangers a great 1-2 combo alongside a healthy deGrom.
Let’s make some trades
Chicago White Sox trade LHP Garrett Crochet to the Baltimore Orioles for 3B/1B Coby Mayo
New Orioles owner David Rubinstein reportedly possesses a bigger checkbook than the Angelos family, and that could mean spending on a top-line starting pitcher in free agency — such as re-signing Burnes. I’m not convinced that fits into the philosophy of GM Mike Elias, though. Elias came up under Jeff Luhnow in Houston, and the Astros’ belief was to trade for veteran starters — see Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke — rather than risk expensive long-term deals on free agents. The Orioles’ history of such deals backs up that thinking, plus they should commit as many financial resources as necessary to sign Gunnar Henderson to a Fernando Tatis Jr.-like lifetime deal.
While I certainly wouldn’t rule out the Orioles signing a top starter, a more likely scenario is using their prospect depth to acquire a less expensive starter in Crochet — but a potential ace based on his 2024 breakout performance. Crochet is under team control for two more years, but given the interest in him from teams like the Red Sox, Phillies and Dodgers, it’s going to take a strong package to get him.
Philadelphia Phillies trade 3B Alec Bohm to the Seattle Mariners, the Mariners deal RHP Luis Castillo and C Harry Ford to the Chicago Cubs, and the Cubs send CF Cody Bellinger to the Phillies and 2B Nico Hoerner to the Mariners
OK, here’s what we know:
1. The Phillies seem intent on doing something significant this offseason after re-signing only Aaron Nola last winter, and Bohm’s name has popped up in trade rumors.
2. The Cubs would consider trading Bellinger after he exercised his $27.5 million player option, and they have Matt Shaw ready to take over at second base to replace Hoerner.
3. The Mariners need a third baseman after non-tendering Josh Rojas and a second baseman after not picking up Jorge Polanco‘s option, but they’re limited in adding payroll.
As far as fits go: Bohm and Hoerner give the Mariners two much-needed contact hitters without raising the payroll as those two will make less than Castillo; the Cubs trim some salary and add a durable, quality starter in Castillo, plus they get an excellent catching prospect in Ford; the Phillies get a desired upgrade in the outfield and have Edmundo Sosa to play third until prospect Aidan Miller is ready, probably in 2026. Maybe Chicago and Seattle send some cash or a lesser prospect Philadelphia’s way to cancel out some of the difference between Bellinger’s salary and Bohm’s salary. Will this happen? Probably not. Is it fun? Yes!
Tampa Bay Rays trade 1B Yandy Diaz and RHP Pete Fairbanks to the Pittsburgh Pirates for 2B/OF Nick Yorke and C Joey Bart
The Rays are in a chaotic situation — they’ll be playing their 2025 home games at the Yankees’ spring training ballpark and their plans for a new stadium in St. Petersburg are now up in the air as well — so we’ll see how that affects their offseason plans. This scenario would help them trim at least a little payroll. Diaz will make $10 million in 2025 and Fairbanks $3.7 million. The Pirates would upgrade a position at which they ranked 24th in the majors in OPS, and add a potential closer in lieu of David Bednar, who’s coming off a bad season. The Rays get two low-salaried players, addressing their problems at catcher (the Pirates have Endy Rodriguez returning), with Yorke sliding in at either second base (with Brandon Lowe moving to first) or the outfield. Feels like a win-win. Well, assuming the Pirates are willing to take on Diaz’s salary.
Oakland Athletics trade DH/OF Brent Rooker to the Cincinnati Reds for RHP Rhett Lowder
After acquiring Brady Singer, the Reds have as much young, controllable starting pitching as any team in the majors: Singer, Hunter Greene (who received Cy Young votes this year), Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft and Lowder, the seventh pick in the 2023 draft who reached the majors in quick fashion and posted a 1.17 ERA in six starts. They also have veteran Nick Martinez, who accepted the qualifying offer of $21 million (perhaps to the Reds’ surprise). In the minors, they have Chase Burns, the second overall pick in 2024, and Chase Petty, who reached Triple-A last year at age 21. The Reds need a home run hitter for the middle of the order and Rooker is coming off a season in which he hit 39 and finished eighth in the majors in OPS (and he has three more years of team control).
A’s GM David Forst said the team doesn’t plan to trade Rooker. That’s understandable — but it also makes sense to cash in what was probably a career year for Rooker. He’s 30 years old, struck out nearly 29% of the time and offers little defensive value. On the other hand, the A’s reportedly intend to increase payroll — up to $100 million, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan (which would be a franchise record). That would be about $37 million higher than 2024 and would give the A’s the luxury of signing a couple of free agent pitchers to help the rotation, assuming they can convince any pitchers to play in Sacramento (average temperature in July: 93 degrees). Or they could trade Rooker to acquire a potential front-line starter and spend the money on a hitter.
St. Louis Cardinals trade RHP Ryan Helsley to the Kansas City Royals for RHP Blake Wolters
These two franchises rarely make deals with each other — only one since 2016, and that was simply St. Louis acquiring Anthony Misiewicz from K.C. for cash considerations in 2023 — so maybe this is a long shot. But it makes sense, especially if the Cardinals, as stated, are focusing on a reset season in 2025 that will focus on youth. With Helsley coming off a monster 49-save season but headed to free agency after 2025, he should be available. The Royals made a nice pickup last trade deadline in acquiring reliever Lucas Erceg from the A’s, but their bullpen depth was still a soft spot overall (the pen was 21st in the majors in ERA). An Erceg-Helsley late-game combo would be dynamic. Meanwhile, Wolters is a young, interesting pitching prospect.
Let’s sign some veterans
Atlanta Braves sign RHP Nathan Eovaldi (2 years, $45 million)
The Braves could look to upgrade at shortstop after Orlando Arcia‘s poor season, but they’re not going to pay the market rate for Adames (that’s not Alex Anthopoulos’ style), plus they’ve been carefully managing their payroll (non-tendering Ramon Laureano to save $6 million even though he played well for them). If they do have room to make an impact signing, it’s likely to be for the rotation, with the hope the offense rebounds after a surprising freefall in 2024. Eovaldi has now averaged 152 innings over the past four seasons and has had notable success in the postseason. He still projects as an impact starter — one who could make an even bigger impact in October.
Arizona Diamondbacks sign LHP Tanner Scott (4 years, $54 million)
The Diamondbacks’ bullpen has been the team’s weak spot the past two seasons (other than pitching well down the stretch in 2023), ranking 26th in ERA in 2024 and 18th the year before. They did pick up A.J. Puk from the Marlins at the deadline this past season and he was dominant with Arizona (1.32 ERA). Justin Martinez flashed upside with his 100 mph heater and Kevin Ginkel is solid. But, like the rest of the NL, the Diamondbacks need to figure out how to match up with the Dodgers, and adding a second power lefty reliever in Scott to match up against Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman is the perfect move.
Los Angeles Angels sign RHP Kirby Yates (2 years, $24 million)
The Angels have been the most active team so far this offseason, trading for DH Jorge Soler, signing starters Yusei Kikuchi and Kyle Hendricks, and catcher Travis d’Arnaud. The average age for that group in 2025 will be 34.5, so … good luck with that. They also signed infielder Kevin Newman. If the Angels are going to roll with Mike Trout in center field and give Anthony Rendon yet another shot at staying healthy at third base, the bullpen is probably the next area to address, and that’s where Yates comes in. After sitting out most of three seasons after Tommy John surgery, he had an excellent year with the Braves in 2023 and then a superior season as the Rangers’ closer in 2024, posting a 1.17 ERA with 33 saves and a .113 average allowed (the lowest ever for a minimum of 50 innings pitched). He would also serve as a valuable trade candidate in 2025 if he’s pitching well and the Angels are out of the playoff picture.
Miami Marlins sign OF Jurickson Profar (3 years, $45 million)
The Marlins ranked 28th in the majors in OBP, and their outfielders combined for a .300 OBP. Profar is coming off a career season with a .380 OBP, is turning 32 and had a lousy season in 2023, so he comes with a large degree of risk. Still, the Marlins need to take a gamble on a reasonably affordable player like this to put some runs on the scoreboard.
Cleveland Guardians sign RHP Max Scherzer (1 year, $13.5 million)
The Guardians need rotation depth, but are they willing to spend money on a starter? Maybe they reunite with Matthew Boyd, Alex Cobb or even Shane Bieber. Sure, Scherzer is a risk — he turns 41 next July and is coming off a season where he made just nine starts. But he did show enough stuff when he pitched, and he should be signable on a one-year deal, which makes him attractive for a club like Cleveland. He’ll want to play for a team that has a chance to win and the Guardians fit there after a great run to the ALCS.
Three teams we fried our brains trying to make a big move for
Consider what the Brewers did after the season: They bought out Colin Rea‘s option for $1 million rather than pay him $5.5 million, even after he went 12-6 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.3 WAR. They declined Gary Sanchez‘s $11 million option, instead paying a $4 million buyout (not surprising after he produced 0.2 WAR). They put useful Bryse Wilson on waivers rather than pay him (he cleared and was outrighted to Triple-A). None of those decisions were necessarily wrong — it just points to a team concerned about its payroll, which already sits about where it was in 2024.
One trade option: closer Devin Williams, who will earn close to $8 million in his final year of arbitration. The Brewers could just run out the clock with him, as they did with Adames. Or they could trade him before free agency, as they did with Josh Hader. But what they probably won’t want to do is trade Williams in the middle of the season, as they did with Hader in 2022. Trade candidates could include the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Dodgers and Phillies, among others.
The Twins slashed payroll last season from $160 million to $130 million, and with the team up for sale, the Pohlad family isn’t about to spend a penny more than it has to — and the payroll already sits a little higher than last season. So instead of adding, the Twins would probably love to trade Chris Paddack ($7.5 million salary) or Christian Vazquez ($10 million). Of course, there’s also Carlos Correa, who hit .310/.388/.517 in 86 games and is set to make $37 million in 2025 — and $30 million-plus the three seasons after that. But he has a no-trade clause and the Twins probably would have to eat a sizable chunk of that remaining contract given Correa’s health risk. All of this points to a quiet offseason.
The Rockies will be paying $77 million in 2025 to Kris Bryant, Kyle Freeland, Ryan McMahon, Antonio Senzatela and German Marquez — five guys who combined for 1.8 WAR in 2024. That’s how you lose 101 games. Look, I’d love to see Soto at Coors Field. I’d love to see how many home runs Alonso might hit there. I’d love to see a 1-2 combo of Burnes and Snell. It’s probably not going to happen … but maybe they’ll surprise us.
