Mike Clay’s Super Bowl playbook: Betting analysis and favorite plays
Super Bowl LIX between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles is nearly upon us, and the betting market is loaded with player props.
My weekly betting guide features several data points for the final game of the NFL season, the top prop plays for the big game based on my projections and my analysis of a few notable lines I might bet. (You can also see my complete box score projection here.)
Note: Odds as of publication. For the most current odds, visit ESPN BET.
Kansas City Chiefs vs.
Philadelphia Eagles
Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
Feb. 9, 6:30 p.m. ET (on Fox)
Spread: Chiefs -1.5 (Opened Chiefs -1.5)
Money line: Chiefs -125, Eagles +105
Total: 48.5 (Opened 49.5)
Clay’s projected favorite: Eagles by 4.5 (66% to win outright)
Clay’s scoring projection: Eagles 27.1, Chiefs 22.6
Before getting into my top plays for the game, here are some nuggets to consider when making betting decisions.
The Eagles operate the league’s game-script adjusted run-heaviest offensive scheme (-7%). Personnel deployment is fairly balanced, slightly leaning toward “12” personnel, but the Philly offense has faced two-high safeties at a league-low 35% rate and man coverage at the fourth-highest rate (49.2%). Defenses blitz the Eagles at a league-high 33.7% rate.
The Chiefs operate a man-heavy defense (53.5% rate is fourth highest) and blitz a ton (33.4% rate is fourth highest).
Adjusted for game script, the Kansas City offense is the second-most pass-heavy unit in the league (+6%). But the Chiefs lean heavily on multiple tight end sets, ranking second in the league in the usage of “12” personnel at 34%. As a result, the Chiefs have faced two-high safeties at the fourth-lowest rate (39%). Defenses blitz the Chiefs 24.5% of the time (10th lowest).
The Eagles’ Vic Fangio-led defense is balanced in coverage scheme and doesn’t blitz often (18.4% is fourth lowest).
When these teams faced off in the Super Bowl two years ago, the Eagles went man-heavy on defense (their highest man rate of the season), albeit prior to Fangio’s arrival. Patrick Mahomes completed 21 of 27 passes for 182 yards (6.7 YPA), three TDs and zero INTs. Only two Chiefs had more than 18 receiving yards in the game (Travis Kelce and JuJu Smith-Schuster).
Saquon Barkley figures to be a big differentiator this time, as Eagles running backs totaled 45 yards and zero touchdowns on 17 carries in the 2023 meeting.
The Chiefs chose to shadow DeVonta Smith with L’Jarius Sneed (25 of 40 total routes, 24/31 perimeter, 1/9 slot) in that game. Jaylen Watson and Joshua Williams split covering A.J. Brown (18/36 combined, 18/24 perimeter combined), whereas Trent McDuffie manned the slot. It’s unclear how Kansas City will deploy its corners this time. We’ve seen McDuffie shadow Nico Collins in recent weeks, but that was with Watson out or somewhat limited in his return from injury. It’s possible the Chiefs follow the script from last time, putting the bigger Watson on Brown, leaving McDuffie to cover Smith on the boundary and perhaps sometimes in the slot (Smith aligns inside 56% of the time).
For more on these matchups, take a look at the Super Bowl LIX WR/CB Cheat Sheet.
Projected offensive lines (left to right):
Chiefs:Joe Thuney, Mike Caliendo, Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith, Jawaan Taylor
Eagles:Jordan Mailata, Landon Dickerson, Cam Jurgens, Mekhi Becton, Lane Johnson
Top bets
On Get Up, Adam Schefter, Damien Woody, Harry Douglas and Jason McCourty answer a round of Super Bowl LIX questions in “Are You Convinced?”
Eagles +1.5 (-110) OR Eagles money line (+105)
I almost never bet game picks, but my model gives the Eagles a pretty noticeable edge, so this one is worth a look. EPA tells the story here. If we exclude Week 18, when both teams rested players, and include all other regular-season and postseason games, the Eagles average an 8.7 offensive EPA (fourth best), 2.7 defensive EPA (third best) and 1.8 combined EPA (second best). The Chiefs, meanwhile, average a 5.8 offensive (eighth best), 0.1 defensive (11th best) and 5.1 combined (fifth best) EPA. On average, the Eagles have outscored opponents by 10.7 points, whereas the Chiefs’ margin is 6.1. My model projects a fairly sizable 4.5-point edge for Philadelphia (27.1 to 22.6). The Chiefs are infamous for their knack of sneaking by for wins, but the Eagles have had about the same success in the win column after a slow start (both are 15-1 in their past 16 games, excluding Week 18) and have done so in more convincing fashion.
Jalen Hurts Anytime TD (-115)
The gift that keeps on giving, Hurts inexplicably remains around even money (-115) to score a rushing touchdown, something we’ve been taking advantage of all season long. Hurts ran for three TDs against the Washington Commanders last week and has at least one rushing score in 12 of his 17 full games this season, including 10 of his past 12. Despite missing two full games and most of Week 18, Hurts finished the regular season with a league-high expected TD total of 14.5 and trailed only Kyren Williams and Josh Jacobs (19 each) in carries inside the opponent’s 5-yard line with 18. The Chiefs allowed four rushing TDs to QBs during the regular season (eighth most) and, including the playoffs, have surrendered at least one rushing TD in four consecutive games.
Patrick Mahomes OVER 36.5 passing attempts (Even)
Mahomes is averaging 35.1 pass attempts per game this season, but a big part of that is game script, as the Chiefs have led on 48% of their offensive snaps (fifth highest). This remains a pass-heavy offense, as shown by its +6.0% pass rate over expected this season, which is second highest in the NFL. Despite his average falling short of this line, Mahomes has gone over 36 attempts in 11 of 18 games, including six in a row to end the regular season. Mahomes attempted only 27 passes when these teams met in the Super Bowl two years ago, but (A) it was a low-volume game for Kansas City, which ran only 53 plays, and (B) Mahomes attempted at least 42 passes in each of his other three Super Bowl appearances. Including the playoffs, the Eagles have led on a league-high 55% of their offensive snaps and have trailed on a league-low 29% of snaps this season. If you agree that this game will be close and, especially if you agree with me that the Eagles have the edge, you’d likely agree that Mahomes figures to clear 36 attempts.
Kareem Hunt UNDER 11.5 rushing attempts (-130)
Hunt registered 17 carries against the Bills last week, but we shouldn’t expect a repeat in the Super Bowl. In that game, the Chiefs led or were tied on 68% of their offensive snaps, which led to 33 called passes to 30 called runs. That 52% pass rate was the Chiefs’ second-lowest mark of the season (lowest was 47% against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 7) and was fueled by an early-game effort to keep Josh Allen off the field while attacking a Buffalo Bills defense that had been generous to RBs during the regular season (seventh-most yards allowed). The Eagles’ run defense is substantially better, having allowed 4.1 yards per carry (sixth lowest) and the fifth-fewest scrimmage yards to RBs, as well as the second-lowest EPA to the run during the regular season. Hunt has been running ahead of Isiah Pacheco as Kansas City’s lead back, but since Pacheco returned in Week 13, Hunt is averaging 10.0 carries per game and has fallen short of 12 in five of the seven outings.
Isiah Pacheco OVER 1.5 receptions (+175)
Pacheco has fallen behind Hunt in snaps and carries, but he remains somewhat involved as a pass catcher. In the win over Buffalo, Hunt ran nine pass routes, compared with 10 for Pacheco and four for Samaje Perine. Pacheco caught both of his targets and has seen two-plus targets in four of seven games since his return from injury. This one is tricky considering Pacheco’s limited role, but with the Chiefs likely to throw more than usual, it has a decent shot to hit, which makes it a value play at +175.
Nick Bolton UNDER 8.5 tackles (-130)
On to the good stuff: defense. Bolton has played 94% of the snaps and is averaging 6.5 tackles per game. He has reached 9.0 tackles in only three of 18 games this season, including once in his past 11 outings. This line is too high, especially against a Philly offense that isn’t prone to linebacker tackles; in 20 games, only 13 off-ball linebackers have reached 9.0 tackles against the Eagles.
Nolan Smith Jr. UNDER 4.5 tackles (-155)
Smith has hit this number only twice in his two-year career, though both have come since his role expanded in Week 13. That promotion followed Brandon Graham‘s season-ending injury. Since then, Smith is averaging 4.0 tackles per game in eight outings. He had eight tackles against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 13 and seven against the Green Bay Packers in the wild-card game, but has otherwise failed to have more than four in a game. The Chiefs are middle of the pack in tackles allowed to edge rushers, with 14 players having hit 5.0 against them in their 19 games. Smith’s boost in playing time (80% snap share since Week 13) should ensure he gets a few tackles, but the under is still the likely outcome.
Others to consider:Josh Sweat OVER 0.5 sacks (+225), A.J. Brown OVER 4.5 receptions (-160)