In November, we attempted to sort through the layers of a college basketball landscape that includes 364 Division I teams. From national title contenders (the Kansas Jayhawks, Alabama Crimson Tide and UConn Huskies) to potential Cinderellas (the McNeese Cowboys and Bradley Braves, among others) and sleepers, Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf ranked 99 teams into 12 tiers.

Some of those early presumptions still seem valid, but so much has changed over the first two months of the 2024-25 season. Not one of those national title contenders remains in that tier — and instead, a couple of SEC squads have taken their place, as the leaders of the strongest conference in the country right now.

With just more than two months remaining before the NCAA tournament, it felt like a good time to revisit our rankings. This is a snapshot of the current hierarchy in college basketball — but just like last time, the following lists are subject to change.

Jump to:
The locks | Final Four contenders | Tourney threats | Potential game winners | Dangerous bubble teams | Too soon to tell | Comeback hopefuls | Two outliers | Cinderellas

Tier I: National championship favorites

Auburn Tigers
Iowa State Cyclones
Duke Blue Devils

Through two months of the season, it feels as if these three teams have separated themselves. They all rank in the top five of most efficiency-based metrics, and they’ve all notched wins to prove their worth: Auburn over Iowa State and Houston; Iowa State over Marquette; Duke over Auburn. Houston could make a case based on metrics, but we’re still waiting for the Cougars to notch a marquee win before putting them with this quartet.

Auburn has been incredibly dominant, setting metrics records for the midway point of the season. The Tigers beat Houston, they beat Iowa State, they pummeled Purdue and Ohio State, they beat Memphis and North Carolina. Johni Broome is the favorite for Player of the Year, leading a deep and balanced group with plenty of experience.

Iowa State finally has an elite offense to go with what is annually one of the best defenses in the country. Keshon Gilbert has emerged as an All-American candidate in the backcourt, but it’s the frontcourt additions of Joshua Jefferson and Dishon Jackson who have taken T.J. Otzelberger’s team to the next level. The Cyclones might be the Big 12 favorites.

And then there’s Duke, which has a pair of neutral-court losses to Kentucky and Kansas but has otherwise looked the part of an ultratalented team getting better every week. Cooper Flagg has thus far lived up to the hype, while classmate Kon Knueppel and Tyrese Proctor have proved to be adequate sidekicks. Jon Scheyer also has a truly elite defense with plenty of size. — Borzello

Tier II: Final Four contenders

Alabama Crimson Tide
Tennessee Volunteers
Houston Cougars
Marquette Golden Eagles
UConn Huskies
Florida Gators
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Kansas Jayhawks
Texas A&M Aggies
Kentucky Wildcats
Illinois Fighting Illini
Memphis Tigers

If Auburn, Tennessee, Iowa State and Duke are a cut above the rest, then this group is stacked with teams that might join them with a strong push over the next month. It’s also a group that — despite its potential — must overcome hurdles to reach that perch in time to secure official “national championship favorite” status. But they’re all capable of a run to San Antonio.

Let’s start with the Volunteers.For two months, Tennessee seemed solidly positioned in our “title favorites” group. And then Tuesday night happened. A 30-point loss at Florida only highlighted the floor for a choppy offense that had nothing to offer in Gainesville. Perhaps it seems harsh, but there was no way to elevate the Vols beyond Final Four-contender status after that performance.

There has been turbulence (three straight losses in the Maui Invitational) and health concerns (both Alex Karaban and Liam McNeeley have dealt with injuries this season) for UConn. But the Huskies haven’t lost a game since they left Hawaii on Nov. 27. Houston (second in adjusted defensive efficiency), Texas A&M (No. 1 offensive rebounding team in the country) and Alabama (Mark Sears has averaged 21.3 points over the past six games) were also undefeated in December.

Kentucky is a conundrum. The Wildcats have defensive issues — see Tuesday’s loss at Georgia — that could cost them in the postseason, but an epic performance in Saturday’s 106-101 victory over Florida — Kentucky registered 147 points per 100 possessions — showcased an offensive firepower that could lead to a Final Four berth in Mark Pope’s first season. The Gators belong here, too. Florida‘s 30-point victory over a previously undefeated No. 1 Tennessee squad on Tuesday was proof that their 14-1 start is no fluke.

For some of these teams, the sheer star power on their rosters could be the difference. Marquette‘s Kam Jones (20.3 PPG, 6.5 APG) is playing like a first-team All-American on a team that has connected on 39% of its 3-point attempts. Memphis (41.1% from beyond the arc) could also follow PJ Haggerty (22.2 PPG, 45% from beyond the arc) to the Final Four in what might be Penny Hardaway’s best season yet. Illinois star Kasparas Jakucionis is a projected first-round pick in next summer’s NBA draft who could become a household name in March. Kansas coach Bill Self still seeks more consistency from his rotation, but Hunter Dickinson is even better than he was a year ago, especially on defense. And Gonzaga‘s Graham Ike has scored 20 points or more in six games this season. — Medcalf

Tier III: Second-weekend threats

Mississippi State Bulldogs
Oregon Ducks
UCLA Bruins
Michigan State Spartans
Oklahoma Sooners
St. John’s Red Storm
Maryland Terrapins
Baylor Bears
Michigan Wolverines
Arizona Wildcats
Purdue Boilermakers

This group of teams has all shown flashes of potential — a potential we think includes multiple NCAA tournament wins — as well as either a lack of consistency or a lack of résumé.

Three teams are right on the cusp of the previous category. Mississippi State will answer any remaining questions we have very soon: The Bulldogs face Kentucky, Auburn, Ole Miss and Tennessee in the next two weeks. If they notch a couple of more marquee wins, they’ll find a spot in the top 10. Oregon has a slew of good wins — Alabama, Texas A&M, Maryland — but the Ducks also lost by 32 at home to Illinois last week. Michigan has a dominant big man duo in Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin, which has proven difficult for opponents to handle given Wolf’s ability to handle the ball and operate in the pick-and-roll at 7-feet tall. The Wolverines just won at UCLA and have just three losses, by a combined five points.

Then there’s Oklahoma, which won its first 13 games before getting blown out at Alabama in its SEC opener, and now we’ll have to see how the Sooners respond. Jeremiah Fears is an elite freshman, and he can carry Porter Moser’s team. Michigan State has only two losses, to Kansas and Memphis, and Tom Izzo has a deep team that competes defensively and on the glass.

The rest of this category are teams that have plenty of talent on paper, making it difficult to discount them, but we just haven’t seen enough to put them any higher. Baylor was a preseason Final Four pick for some (for me, at least), but the Bears took some time to get healthy and haven’t quite clicked yet. (A 20-point blowout of Cincinnati on Tuesday is a start.) St. John’s best win is over New Mexico, but I’m not counting out a team with Rick Pitino, Zuby Ejiofor and its backcourt. Maryland lost two in a row on the road after blowing out most of its opponents for two months, while UCLA has an elite defense, but the Bruins have issues scoring the ball and suffered a couple surprising neutral-court losses to New Mexico and North Carolina.

Arizona would’ve been several tiers lower a couple of weeks ago. But the Wildcats have won five in a row after going to Morgantown and beating West Virginia by 19 on Tuesday. Tommy Lloyd has a terrific backcourt, and he’s starting to figure out his frontcourt with expanding roles for Henri Veesaar and Carter Bryant.

One team we went back and forth on was Purdue, which has wins over Alabama, Ole Miss and Maryland — but also has four losses and some turnover issues. What sealed the Boilermakers’ place in this category was the presence of All-American point guard Braden Smith and breakout big man Trey Kaufman-Renn. — Borzello

Tier IV: Can win a tournament game

Arkansas Razorbacks
Ole Miss Rebels
Pittsburgh Panthers
Clemson Tigers
Wisconsin Badgers
West Virginia Mountaineers
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Ohio State Buckeyes
Utah State Aggies
San Diego State Aztecs
Louisville Cardinals
Texas Tech Red Raiders

Last season, eight double-digit seeds advanced to the second round of the NCAA tournament; most of those teams were mid-majors. But this group features teams with elite talent competing at high-major programs. For some of these squads, a tournament win would be a high mark, considering preseason projections. For others, it would feel like a disappointment.

John Calipari joined Arkansas last April and assembled a roster full of five-star talent, top transfers and NBA prospects. Yet, the Razorbacks have not yet demonstrated the promise they appeared to have entering 2024-25. At this point, an NCAA tournament victory seems more probable than a Final Four trip.

Wisconsin, Ole Miss and Nebraska all seemed capable of a second-weekend trip entering the season, but they’ve showcased both their strengths and weaknesses in recent weeks. Still, a Badgers team that just scored 116 points against Iowa, an Ole Miss squad that’s forcing turnovers on one-fourth of its team’s possessions and a Nebraska squad that has three top-60 KenPom victories are capable of advancing in March.

Meanwhile, a NCAA tournament win by first-year head coaches at West Virginia, Utah State, Louisville and Ohio State would make the supporters of those programs feel as if they were ahead-of-schedule in their respective rebuilding efforts. — Medcalf

Tier V: Dangerous bubble teams

Texas Longhorns
Saint Mary’s Gaels
Dayton Flyers
Cincinnati Bearcats
Georgia Bulldogs
Creighton Bluejays
Missouri Tigers
BYU Cougars

If you judge these teams by their ceilings, you’d probably prefer that your favorite teams find a way to avoid them in March. Texas will face a gauntlet at the start of its first SEC basketball season, and the team’s final record could reflect the difficulty of its January slate. But the Longhorns also have a projected lottery pick (Tre Johnson) and other talented athletes who could overwhelm a first-round opponent. Georgia‘s Asa Newell (15.4 PPG, 6.9 RPG), a soaring NBA prospect, led the Bulldogs to an 82-69 victory over Kentucky on Tuesday. BYU‘s Egor Demin (11.3 PPG, 6.0 APG) could also join Johnson in the first round of the 2025 NBA draft, especially if they help their respective squads advance in the NCAA tournament.

The other teams on the list are mysterious — but on the right day, equally dangerous. Dayton has a loss to George Washington, a sub-100 KenPom squad, but also wins over UConn and Marquette. And while this isn’t Randy Bennett’s best Saint Mary’s squad, they’re top-50 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Missouri, which ended last season on a 19-game losing streak, has already topped last season’s win total. The latter includes a victory over Kansas.

Creighton‘s Ryan Kalkbrenner is still a double-double threat against any opponent he faces; Cincinnati has played top-10 defense thus far.

If any of these teams hit their stride late in the season, it could shake up the bracket. — Medcalf

Tier VI: Check back in a month

Georgetown Hoyas
Penn State Nittany Lions
SMU Mustangs
UCF Knights
Vanderbilt Commodores
LSU Tigers
St. Bonaventure Bonnies

If you’re looking for definitive answers on any of these squads, we can’t help you. We just don’t have enough information yet.

Georgetown entered the week on a five-game winning streak, and then the Hoyas had a double-digit lead over Marquette on Tuesday before ultimately squandering that edge in the second half. But in Ed Cooley’s second season, the Hoyas are projected to win more games than they have in a decade. With road games against St. John’s and Villanova and home games against UConn and St. John’s ahead (all after this week’s game at Marquette), we’ll know more about where they stand.

When Ace Baldwin Jr. excels, Penn State is impressive. But when he struggles, the Nittany Lions are a different team. Their upcoming stretch of Illinois-Oregon-Michigan State will tell us more about this squad. St. Bonaventure — which added former ESPN NBA guru Adrian Wojnarowski as GM — is on an eight-game winning streak, but a 33.3% mark from the 3-point line is concerning. LSU is intriguing but doesn’t yet have any wins against teams projected to make the NCAA tournament. SMU (top-30 offensive efficiency, sub-100 defensive efficiency), UCF (wins over Texas A&M and Texas; 97th in offensive efficiency), Vanderbilt (59.9% clip inside the arc; loss to Drake and zero top-50 KenPom wins) could get there with the right winning streak.

It just feels as if we need more time to assess this entire group. — Medcalf

Tier VII: Can they recover?

North Carolina Tar Heels
Indiana Hoosiers
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Providence Friars
Miami Hurricanes
Villanova Wildcats
Kansas State Wildcats
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Xavier Musketeers

This group of teams has disappointed this season for any number of reasons: injuries, underperformance, etc.

Some of them are already turning things around. Indiana has won eight of its past nine games and might have found something on offense with Malik Reneau sidelined the past two games. Mike Woodson has been forced to play smaller, and the Hoosiers’ shooting has improved dramatically. Villanova has a massive opportunity Wednesday against UConn. The Wildcats have won seven of their past eight games after starting 3-4, but Kyle Neptune’s offense has been flying lately, led by Eric Dixon, the nation’s leading scorer.

North Carolina‘s season has been teetering on the brink countless times, but the Tar Heels have found ways to beat UCLA and Notre Dame to keep things alive. In a weak ACC, it also wouldn’t be a surprise to see Wake Forest rescue its season. The Demon Deacons beat Michigan in early November but have barely been competitive against good teams since.

A few other teams have shown flashes, but it doesn’t seem as if it’s going to happen this season. Rutgers, led by projected top-five picks Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey, has lost four games by five points or fewer. There’s simply not enough around the two stars to consistently beat good teams — but they’re going to still be a handful on certain nights in the Big Ten. Xavier has had massive injury issues this season, and after losing seven of its past 10, the Musketeers need to turn things around quickly.

It’s probably too late for the rest of this group. Kansas State provided some optimism when it beat Cincinnati in late December, but Tuesday’s 13-point loss at Oklahoma State was their fifth defeat in six games and left them at 7-7 overall. Miami has lost 10 of its past 11 games and Jim Larranaga retired. Providence dropped to below .500 after losing for the eighth time in its past 10 games Sunday. Bryce Hopkins has played only three games and Kim English hasn’t found the right combination in his rotation just yet. — Borzello

Tier VIII: Two teams we’re still pounding the table for

Northwestern Wildcats

The timing could be better for this pick, given the Wildcats lost by 18 at Purdue over the weekend and are currently on a two-game losing streak. But that’s what this category is for, right?

It starts with the duo of Brooks Barnhizer and Nick Martinelli. They both have unorthodox games, but they pose huge matchup problems for opponents and are capable of carrying the Wildcats. Chris Collins did well to land Jalen Leach from the portal to run the show. The Wildcats are an older team, they have plenty of experience playing with one another, and they’ve improved defensively from a season ago. They showed a lot in the win over Illinois last month.

This team just needs to learn how to win close games. Four of their five losses are by five or fewer points, including a heartbreaking buzzer-beating defeat at Iowa in early December. Perhaps late-game variance will swing back in Northwestern’s favor, with games against Michigan State, Maryland, Michigan, Indiana and Illinois next on the docket. — Borzello

Iowa Hawkeyes

This might seem misguided after Iowa just surrendered 116 points — 153 points per 100 possessions! — in a loss to Wisconsin. But before that lopsided loss, Fran McCaffery’s squad had an offensive output that was trending in the right direction. Since Dec. 1, Iowa has ranked seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency, per barttorvik.com. Payton Sandfort has scored 17 or more points in seven games this season.

That loss to Wisconsin seemed to quiet any chatter about Iowa’s rise, but it was also an example of the overall challenge any team faces when its opponent shoots like the 2017-18 Golden State Warriors. That game didn’t diminish this team’s offensive ceiling; it created more questions about its defensive flaws.

The latter is a real issue for this group. But its efficiency (38% from the 3-point line) will keep the team alive in most games this season. A slight upgrade on defense could make Iowa a really dangerous bubble team. — Medcalf

Tier IX: Potential March Cinderellas

Drake Bulldogs
Liberty Flames
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Grand Canyon Lopes
Furman Paladins
McNeese Cowboys
Princeton Tigers
High Point Panthers
UC San Diego Tritons
Bradley Braves
Samford Bulldogs
UC Irvine Anteaters

Can we guarantee this season’s double-digit-seed Cinderella will come from this group? Of course not, but we think these are the best candidates at the midway point.

Drake was the final mid-major team to lose a game this season, but the Bulldogs have now lost two in a row since starting with 12 straight wins. Still, Ben McCollum is a terrific coach, Drake has already beaten Vanderbilt and Kansas State, and its deliberate style make the Bulldogs a tough out.

There are three teams that looked a cut above their Cinderella brethren in the preseason — and although it hasn’t exactly gone to plan, we’re still eyeing Grand Canyon, Princeton and McNeese as teams that can give power-conference opponents a nightmare. Returning to form is imperative for Grand Canyon’s and Princeton’s stars. Tyon Grant-Foster, Xaivian Lee and Caden Pierce have all taken a step back from last season. Meanwhile, Will Wade and McNeese are still piecing together the rotation for this deep and talented unit.

Arkansas State has already won at Memphis, and High Point has a talented trio in D’Maurian Williams, Kezza Giffa and Kimani Hamilton. Liberty has victories over Kansas State and McNeese, and Ritchie McKay always seems to have his players ready for big games. Either Samford or Furman could make a move out of the SoCon and Bradley is a team to watch if it can get past Drake.

UC San Diego is finally eligible for the NCAA tournament after transitioning from Division II, and Eric Olen’s Tritons have won at Utah State this season. If they can beat UC Irvine this weekend, they’re the Big West favorites. — Borzello