One more week. It’s almost playoff time in fantasy football. And when we get there, it’s about one thing and one thing only: scoring the most points in your head-to-head matchup each week. That’s it.

You might be thinking, “Isn’t that what we were trying to do every week during the regular season, too?” Of course, but we all know this means more. It’s win-or-go-home time.

So, how do we make this happen?

I’m giving you my guide to the fantasy playoffs. But it’s not about rankings or player projections. Instead, this is a guide built on strategies that will allow your team, the one you drafted back in August or early September, to make it to the championship stage.

With 13 million people playing fantasy football at ESPN this year, it’s impossible for me to account for all league types. So, this column is mostly centered on 10- and 12-team leagues. If you’re in deeper or shallower setups, you may need to make slight adjustments to the advice below, but rest assured there is something for everyone in here.

Tricks for the waiver wire? Yeah, we’ll look at those. Managing quarterbacks, too. You might need more than one to win a title. The top insurance backs are here — and I ranked them. Plus, I have notes on what defenses to stream, in addition to some thoughts on how to free up roster space.

Remember, this is playoff football. This is not a time to be nice or to make members of your league happy. Your job is to advance. It’s the business of winning now. And I can help.

The reason this column is running a week before the fantasy playoffs begin is because there are things you can do now to set your team up for postseason success.

Be prepared to pounce on Week 14 drops

There are six teams on a bye in this final week of the fantasy regular season (Ravens, Broncos, Texans, Colts, Patriots and Commanders). That’s a big number. And there are some heavy hitters who will be sitting this week out: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Jayden Daniels, Joe Mixon and Jonathan Taylor, to name just a handful. I’m talking about real dudes in fantasy football here.

However, if you have already locked up a playoff spot, this can be a great thing. Why? Because the teams in your league who haven’t clinched will need to put their best foot forward and may have to create roster space to replace starters that are on a bye.

Use this to your advantage if/when quality players — a potential WR3/flex, an insurance back or a QB2 type, perhaps — are dumped onto the wire by those teams.

The point here is to check daily (even hourly, depending on your league’s settings on waiver claims) all the way up until kickoff on Thursday night before the Packers-Lions game, and again before the early kickoffs on Sunday. I know managers who will try to drop players at odd hours of the day and night, hoping no one sees it. Be ready, because if you don’t grab a player who can potentially give you double-digit production in the playoffs, someone else will.

Make sure you roster multiple quarterbacks

Generally speaking, the quarterback is the most reliable scorer in your lineup from week to week. Let’s get that out up front here.

Now, I rarely roster multiple quarterbacks during the regular season in 10- and 12-team leagues, other than when injuries strike or when I’m picking up a one-week rental because my starter is on a bye. However, after drafting C.J. Stroud this season in my 10-team home league, and eventually dropping him for Baker Mayfield, I did pick up another QB, grabbing Justin Herbert off the wire.

And then, to prep for the playoffs, I added a third. Let me explain.

Inside the QB room for Sweet Chin Music, rostering Mayfield and Herbert has given me matchup flexibility. I’m good with both, and Herbert’s mobility (now that he’s healthy) creates upside. But I also picked up Anthony Richardson last week. He was sitting there on waivers Thursday afternoon. Yeah, I’ll take it.

Look, I’m not going to let someone else in our league make that pickup and knock me out the playoffs with Richardson. Nope. And I do see a potential path where Richardson (who has scored 21 or more points in two of his past three games) is my fantasy starter, especially in Weeks 16 and 17 (TEN, @NYG). So, with a roster that is pretty stacked at wide receiver (Amon-Ra St. Brown, A.J. Brown, Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jameson Williams), I cut Cedric Tillman to open up a spot for Richardson.

The way I see it, you simply can’t go into the playoffs with just one passer. It’s an unnecessary risk. And an avoidable one. Even if you roster Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts, the best at the position, you still need to prepare for an injury. And if you don’t have a viable backup, someone who can potentially get you 15-18 points, you could be going home early — all because you wanted to hold onto that WR4 you drafted back in August (the one who has been on your bench all season).

Accounting for leagues of different sizes, here are a handful of available quarterbacks I would target right now:

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (71.4% rostered): Tagovailoa has scored 23 or more points in his past three games. He’s dialed in, getting the ball out with speed while throwing it with precise location. And his playoff schedule (@HOU, SF, @CLE) presents some positive matchups.

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (37.2% rostered): With Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp in Sean McVay’s schemed-up pass game, Stafford is a smart fit as a QB2. His playoff schedule is manageable (@SF, @NYJ, ARI), and Stafford has scored 15 or more points, including multiple touchdown throws, in five of his past six games.

Will Levis, Tennessee Titans (21.0% rostered): Sure, Levis is still going to make some head-scratching decisions due to his aggressive, and sometimes reckless, throwing mentality. But he has now scored 15 or more points in four straight games, plus he gives you a dual-threat element (22 carries over that stretch). And the playoff matchups are solid (CIN, @IND, @JAC), too.

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (45.6% rostered): Williams is surging under new playcaller (and now-interim head coach) Thomas Brown, scoring at least 26 points in consecutive games. He has been much more decisive as a thrower, while looking to create with his legs, and he gets to see both Minnesota and Detroit again (Weeks 15 and 16), before getting the Seahawks at home in Week 17.

Jameis Winston, Cleveland Browns (17.0% rostered): Winston has posted 23 or more points in three of his past five games. And even with the questionable decision-making, plus the interceptions, Jameis has big-play ability. He’s not a bad option as your QB2 with his playoff schedule (KC, @CIN, MIA).

Protecting your lineup is critical to making a postseason run. You can part ways with that guy sitting at the end of your bench to pick up another quarterback, one who could be starting in Week 17 with a fantasy championship at stake.

Find the right insurance backs

Rostering an insurance back — to protect the RB1 and RB2 slots in your lineup — is another box to check as we head into the fantasy playoffs. Specifically target those in offensive schemes that will go run-heavy or have balance in the call sheet.

We all know there won’t be high-quality starting running back options on the wire during the playoffs. And depending on your record (which could push you down the waiver order) or your available free agent budget (FAB), you could strike out. That’s trouble if your No. 1 goes down with an injury, and it could cost you a playoff win.

When looking at insurance backs, I focus on players who are the clear No. 2 for their team, because you don’t want to target a back who is a part of deep rotation. A lot of guesswork there. You want volume runners, too, backs who can handle double-digit carries with ease. Pass-catching traits? Yes, but screens and underneath throws work just fine here. You don’t need an elite route-runner out of the backfield. And those guys aren’t sitting on the wire, anyway.

Here are the five backs I would target as ideal insurance options — all available in more than 60% of ESPN leagues — and I’ve ranked them, too:

1. Ray Davis, Buffalo Bills (12.5% rostered): The Bills have logged 345 rushing attempts, the ninth most in the league. We had the chance to see Davis in a No. 1 role already this season, back in Week 6 versus the Jets. With James Cook out for that game, Davis totaled 152 yards on 23 touches (18.6 points). He’s a downhill, volume runner with pass-catching ability. Davis has a tough opener in the playoffs (@DET), but he follows that up with two positive matchups in Weeks 16 and 17 (NE, NYJ), if the opportunity arises.

2. Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons (39.3% rostered): Allgeier is a really good fit for the Falcons’ zone run game. Press the ball, find north/south daylight or cut it back. Allgeier has posted two games with double-digit points this season, and he would immediately step into the No. 1 spot if Bijan Robinson were to suffer an injury. Plus, with a solid playoff schedule (@LV, NYG, @WAS), Allgeier could end up being a league-winner with the volume he’d likely get.

3. Trey Benson, Arizona Cardinals (21.3% rostered): A smart fit behind James Conner, on a team that is averaging 5.1 YPC (second in the NFL), Benson is a powerful mover with big-play chops. He has scored in double digits twice this season, and he can be a productive player on screens given his vision in the open field. The playoff slate for Benson works as well (NE, @CAR, @LAR).

4. Blake Corum, Los Angeles Rams (14.7% rostered): Rams head coach Sean McVay is more than dedicated to starter Kyren Williams, so we haven’t seen a ton from Corum during his rookie season (37 carries). But what do we know? Well, Corum is a contact-balance runner with good short-area burst and the interior vision needed in McVay’s scheme. If Williams, who is averaging 18.5 carries per game, were to go down, you would have a volume runner in place. And the run-game system works. Corum gets the 49ers and Jets on the road in Weeks 15 and 16, with the Cards at home in Week 17.

5. Jonathon Brooks, Carolina Panthers (44.4% rostered): Brooks saw his role increase during his second pro game in Week 14, totaling 42 yards on nine touches. Now, I know he hasn’t played much pro ball, but Brooks was dynamic as a dual-threat back on his college tape at Texas, and he would give your lineup a boost in the pass game. If starter Chuba Hubbard has to miss any time during the fantasy playoffs, Brooks will have some positive matchups to work with (DAL, ARI, @TB).

Roster two D/STs or stream the weekly matchups?

I’m a big believer in streaming defenses throughout the fantasy regular season. I hold on to a unit for a week or two, maybe more if that defense is taking the ball away consistently or hitting the QB. It’s really all about playing the weekly matchups.

And I embrace rolling with that philosophy in the playoffs, especially when you’re given a road map from my great teammate at ESPN, Tristan H. Cockcroft. In his recent piece, which outlines the top defenses to stream, and also those to avoid, Tristan gives you viable options based on the matchups. Taking Tristan’s analysis and pairing that with what I see on the tape, here are my favorite D/STs in each of the first three weeks of the fantasy playoffs:

Week 15 — Arizona Cardinals (49.1% rostered; vs. Patriots): Since Week 9, the Cardinals lead the NFL with a pressure rate of 37.8%, and they’ve racked up 19 sacks over that stretch. I’ll take Arizona — a disciplined, well-coached, zone-heavy unit — in the opening week of the playoffs against Drake Maye and a New England offense that is speed-deficient.

Week 16 — Atlanta Falcons (7.9% rostered; at Giants): The Falcons posted their second-highest point total of the season in the Week 13 loss to the Chargers (13.0), logging five sacks and one fumble recovery. The lack of takeaways (only three games with two or more this season), can cause some pause here. But remember, we are streaming for this matchup only, and I don’t buy the Giants offense with Tommy DeVito or Drew Lock at QB.

Week 17 — Los Angeles Chargers (47.0% rostered; vs. Patriots): The Chargers have scored 10 or more points in three of their past five games, and their 36 sacks are tied for the sixth most in the NFL. What I really like, though? Watch the tape of this unit in Week 13 versus Kirk Cousins and the Falcons. A bunch of late movement and disguise, which led to four interceptions. That works against a rookie QB in this matchup.

What if you’re a fantasy manager who rosters, for example, the Lions or the Eagles (both top five in roster percentage)? Is it time to pick up a second unit?

Think about this: In Week 15, the Lions host the Bills. I don’t love that matchup. Week 16? The Eagles play on the road versus Washington. That could be dicey with a healthier Jayden Daniels.

Theoretically, you want to keep both defenses for the other playoff matchups, and you also don’t want to dump them so someone else in your league can just scoop them up on their way to a championship. If you have the roster space, you can pick up a second defense.

Whom to target? We already discussed the Cardinals as a Week 15 option. Well, they also get Carolina in Week 16. Go get them (even with the emerging play of Bryce Young). How about the Bears at home in Week 17 versus Seattle? It’s a Thursday night game, the day after Christmas. I live here in Chicago. The weather could be absolutely brutal under the lights, and the Bears have recorded at least one takeaway in 11 of 12 games played.

Give yourself options on defense. That’s playing winning football in the fantasy playoffs.

Get ahead of injury concerns in your lineup

If you have any key players whose playing status is in doubt — the big red “Q” next to his name is staring you in the face — it’s wise to execute a backup plan early.

This is particularly true for anyone playing in the late-afternoon window on Sunday, on Sunday night, or even worse, on “Monday Night Football.”

We’ve all been there, right? Ankle, hammy, whatever. Limited practices. Maybe the player will have to work out before the game. I did that a couple of times in my career. And if you take the early bus to work out at the stadium, it’s most likely a 50-50 shot that you even get to put on a jersey. Not great.

Now, if you already have a viable replacement on your roster, hopefully with a good matchup, then you plug that player into your lineup and go with it. That’s easy. You’re good.

But if you don’t, and need to add a second tight end or another wide receiver (hopefully the backup to your starter who has that big red “Q”), then drop that luxury player on your bench (we all have them) and get on the waiver wire.

This is more about being out in front of the situation. Pick up the insurance policy, as they might wind up in your playoff lineup. And guess what? If your starter can go and he winds up being active for the game, then you can cut that insurance policy. No harm there. Plus, that luxury player you were holding on to for 14 weeks that you dropped? He will probably still be there on the wire come Tuesday morning. You can bring him back … to sit again.

Setting your playoff lineup: ceiling vs. floor

I think this is a good discussion to have when looking at your playoff roster, because the goal here is to score the most points in your head-to-head matchup. That’s really it. Sure, you can maneuver your roster to get the highest projected total on the ESPN Fantasy app. I get it. And I’ve done it, multiple times this season. But those are just projections, and they don’t always hit.

So, what type of manager do you want to be?

You can take the risk, filling your lineup with high-ceiling options. Jameson Williams fits here as a flex due to his stop/start speed and big-play juice on schemed play-action throws in the Lions offense. He averages 18.5 YPC. That works. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, too. He’s climbing in our ranks, and all he does is catch touchdowns. He has at least one in seven of his past eight games, despite averaging only 2.5 receptions per game during that stretch. That’s wild to me. The point here is that you are going all-in on boom/bust players. And they need to hit. Or you’re going home.

You can limit the risk, too, focusing on the higher-floor players in your lineup. Maybe you toss in one boom/bust player, like a Marquez Valdes-Scantling, in a deeper league. I’m intrigued. MVS is averaging 18.1 fantasy PPG over his past three, with at least one touchdown in each. Yet, he’s averaging only 3.2 targets per game in that stretch. Those deep-ball throws from Derek Carr need to be there. But if they aren’t, you have the safety of the rest of your higher-floor starters to balance this out.

How do I lean? I’m the higher-floor manager. Always have been. Give me consistent numbers in the lineup. Stuff I can count on. But if you are gambler and want to lay all the cards down, I get that stance also.

Be you. Win the week. And advance.

If you have a roster spot available …

• Blocking your opposition on the waiver wire is a viable strategy. If there is a player on waivers who could boost the lineup for another team, and potentially knock you out of the bracket, go pick them up, even if you don’t plan to use that player. And don’t feel bad about it.

• Think a week ahead on waivers. If there’s a player on your roster you doubt you’d ever start during these playoffs, drop him to pick up someone you might consider using the following week. Think about positive matchups, or maybe someone with an open door for more usage due to an injury. Sometimes, you just have a good feeling about a player’s potential upside. If you can’t get them into the lineup? No harm. Cut them loose. And get back at it the following weekend.

• Keep an eye on emerging talent. We’re usually talking about rookies and second- or third-year players here. Monitor the volume and usage in the coming weeks. In 2023, with Josh Jacobs dealing with a quad injury, the Raiders’ Zamir White averaged 15.2 fantasy PPG in Weeks 15-18, logging over 20 touches in each. White wound up as one of the most popular players on ESPN Fantasy championship rosters last season.

• Be aware of teams preparing for the future. They want to get a look at younger talent. If Atlanta slides out of the race, could the team turn to Michael Penix Jr. at QB? It’s possible. We must be on top of the roster shake-ups for teams that are simply playing out the schedule until the offseason hits.

• Upgrade at tight end. It’s the most fickle position in fantasy football. Finding a viable option here, one who can produce consistent numbers, is a challenge. It’s OK to add a second tight end, preferably one in an offense that throws the ball inside the numbers, to give you another option based on matchups.

• Week 18 awareness. ESPN standard leagues determine their champion in Week 18, so if you play in one of those formats, be aware of which teams could sit their stars (or pull them early) in the final week of the season. This could impact teams such as Detroit, Philadelphia, Kansas City and Buffalo, for example. There are some key fantasy contributors on those rosters. Back in Week 18 of the 2022 season, five quarterbacks made their first NFL starts, so you might need to be nimble.

You don’t control the outcome, but you do control the process of giving yourself the best chance to win. Good luck in your attempt to bring home a fantasy championship.