A new era in New York baseball begins in 2025: Juan Soto has agreed to a record-setting 15-year, $765 million deal with the New York Mets. The crosstown New York Yankees have long dominated the headlines in the Big Apple — with more success on the field, more star power in the lineup and bigger names signed in free agency. Even in 2024, as the Mets made a run to the National League Championship Series, the Yankees did better, reaching their first World Series since 2009.

But now Soto, coming off a season with the Yankees in which he hit .288/.419/.568 with 41 home runs, 128 runs scored and a third-place finish in the American League MVP voting, will take his lethal bat to Queens, where he has a chance to become the best hitter in Mets history. If Soto hits like he did in 2024, that’s not hyperbole. His 178 OPS+ this past season tops the Mets’ record (169, set by Howard Johnson in 1989). His 147 runs created would top David Wright’s 146 from 2006. His 129 walks are more than any Mets player has ever drawn. Even his 41 home runs would rank tied for third, behind two seasons from Pete Alonso.

It’s a franchise-altering move — at just 26 years old, Soto was not only the best free agent this offseason but one of the most sought-after in history. He brings in-his-prime offense and swagger to an organization still trying to find its way as a consistent winner and World Series contender. While the Yankees haven’t had a losing season since 1992, the Mets have had 18 in that span. The Yankees have 25 playoff appearances since 1995; the Mets have just seven. The Mets have had a better record than the Yankees just four times since 1993.

Indeed, until Steve Cohen finalized his purchase of the team in November of 2020, the Mets had long swung below their weight level, never running a top-10 payroll from 2012 to 2019 under the Wilpon family.

Under Cohen the past two seasons, they’ve had the two highest payrolls in major league history under Cohen the past two seasons. But still, the Mets have never signed a free agent at Soto’s level before. Of the previous five nine-figure contracts for free agents in franchise history, three were re-signings — Brandon Nimmo and Edwin Diaz since Cohen took over and Yoenis Cespedes under Wilpon.

Yes, the Mets did sign Francisco Lindor to a mammoth $341 million extension, but that came before he reached free agency. They also signed Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander to record-setting average annual salary contracts, but those were short-term deals for pitchers on the back side of Hall of Fame careers.

Carlos Beltran was the last true free agent superstar in his prime to choose the Mets, back in 2005, but even he hadn’t been as dominant a hitter as Soto, whose 7.9 WAR in 2024 tops anything Beltran had done when he reached free agency (Beltran did have an 8.2-WAR season with the Mets in 2006). Soto was an immediate sensation when he reached the majors at just 19 years old, posting a .406 OBP and .923 OPS as a rookie for the Washington Nationals. The next season, he was a postseason hero, helping the Nationals win the World Series (he hit .333 with three home runs in the seven-game series win over the Houston Astros). In the shortened season of 2020, he hit .351 and led the majors in OPS. In 2021, he hit .313 with a .465 OBP and led NL position players in WAR. After a down season in 2022 that saw him traded to the San Diego Padres — he still finished with a .401 OBP — he rebounded in 2023 and then, following another trade to the Yankees, had his best season with that career-high WAR.

In this era of low batting averages and low on-base percentages, Soto’s eye at the plate has allowed him to consistently get on base more than 40% of the time — he’s posted a .400-plus OBP every season of his career. Since his debut season in 2018, he leads the majors with a .421 OBP (only Mike Trout and Aaron Judge are also over .400) and he’s second only to Judge in adjusted batting runs (with Freddie Freeman a distant third). If we look at just the past four seasons — even with the emergence of top hitters like Shohei Ohtani and Yordan Alvarez — Soto remains first in OBP and second to Judge in batting runs. If his former teammate is the best hitter in the game, Soto has a strong case as No. 2.

No, Soto isn’t quite Ted Williams, the player he’s been compared to since he was a teenager, but he’s clearly a generational hitter, one of the best ever through age 25 (he’s first in walks, tied with Albert Pujols for seventh in home runs and fifth since World War II in OPS+, behind only Frank Thomas, Trout, Pujols and Dick Allen). His list of comparable hitters through age 25 on Baseball-Reference.com consists of inner-circle Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers: Bryce Harper, Frank Robinson, Ken Griffey Jr., Trout, Eddie Mathews, Miguel Cabrera, Mickey Mantle.

More importantly for a contract of this size, Soto’s skill set projects to age extremely well. Consider these various Statcast metrics, along with how his 2024 numbers compare among all hitters: expected batting average, expected wOBA and walk rate (100th percentile); hard-hit rate, expected slugging and barrel rate (99th percentile); chase rate and average exit velo (98th percentile); and bat speed (94th percentile). While you never want to call a $765 million contract a completely safe investment — see Griffey or Trout as examples of superstar players who had problems staying healthy in their 30s — Soto’s bat is about as safe as it gets (and he still has four seasons before turning 30). Yes, his defense might eventually push him to a full-time DH role halfway through the deal, but even then, he still projects as an Edgar Martinez-type — a hitter who could post .400 OBPs into his late 30s.

At least in these early seasons, the Mets are expecting the very best version of Soto, the MVP-type player we saw in 2024. They’ll add him to a lineup that, at the moment, remains minus Alonso, who is a free agent:

SS Francisco Lindor (S)

LF Brandon Nimmo (L)

RF Juan Soto (L)

3B Mark Vientos (R)

1B ???

C Francisco Alvarez (R)

DH Starling Marte (R)

2B Jeff McNeil (L)

CF Tyrone Taylor (R)

The Mets finished seventh in the majors in runs scored last season. Add Soto, who created 54 more runs than Alonso, and the Mets could climb into the top three or four, especially if Vientos can stay in the lineup all season and Alvarez has a breakout year. Add Soto and re-sign Alonso (or another first baseman like Christian Walker or a third baseman like Alex Bregman with Vientos moving to first) and the Mets could battle for the major league lead in runs. Given Cohen’s willingness to spend, they still have plenty of payroll room to bring back Alonso — as well as a top-of-the-rotation starter such as Corbin Burnes or Max Fried and a couple of relievers.

Since Cohen took over, the Mets have spent huge sums on payroll just to compete with the mediocre roster that Cohen inherited. With highly respected executive David Stearns taking over as president of baseball operations before the 2024 season, the Mets now have deep pockets plus the most stable and capable front office they’ve had in years. The farm system has also improved. Signing Soto feels like a new era for Mets baseball — an era that harks back to the mid-1980s, when the Mets were consistent winners and the toast of New York.

As far as a grade goes, it’s difficult to give this an “A” despite all the praise just heaped on Soto. While his relative youth minimizes some of the risk for a long-term mega-contract like this one, it doesn’t minimize all the risk. Since 2021, Soto’s adjusted batting runs — the estimated number of runs a batter created compared to an average hitter — has fluctuated from plus-57 to plus-39 to plus-49 to plus-64 this past season. Every 10 runs or so translates to about one win, meaning there’s a difference of about two wins from Soto at his best to a slightly lesser version.

Yes, of course, it’s more important to emphasize 2025 and 2026 as opposed to worrying about 2035 and 2036, and Soto gives the Mets a better chance of winning now. Still … well, it’s a lot of money. And Soto, as good as he is, is not Ohtani. In his three seasons before reaching free agency, Ohtani averaged 9.5 WAR per season. Soto, in his past three seasons, has averaged 6.3 WAR. Soto just had his best season — and Ohtani, not even pitching, was still more valuable. (That doesn’t even factor in the additional revenue Ohtani brings in that no other player can come close to matching.) Soto is not the all-around player that Mookie Betts has been at his best or that Mike Trout was when healthy or that Bobby Witt Jr. is now. Yet Soto’s contract starting with a “7” blows away anything those players signed for (especially when factoring in Ohtani’s deferred money). The Mets better make it a point to do everything they can to win now.

Grade: B+