When the 2024 season began, 57 teams had at least a 3% chance of reaching the 12-team College Football Playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. At the season’s midway point, there were still 30 teams that fit that description. Hell, heading into Championship Week, 15 teams still had playoff dreams.

But now, after a breathless 15 weeks and at least one controversial decision, we’ve got our bracket. And in less than two weeks, we’ll have our first four playoff games to revel in.

Unlike a four-team playoff, a 12-teamer is a true tournament, with randomness and bracket-busting potential playing major roles. We therefore don’t have a single team with better than a20.4%chance of winning the national championship, per SP+. (In fact, half the field has between a 9% and 20% title chance. This thing is wide open.) But through the bracket-busting and wildness ahead, someone will win the title.

Here’s how each of the 12 playoff teams, listed in order of their seed, could end up on top.

1. Oregon Ducks

First game: vs. Tennessee-Ohio State winner (bye in first round)

National title odds, per SP+: 20.4%

How Oregon wins it all: With precision

The only unbeaten team in FBS found itself on the ropes Saturday night in its first Big Ten championship game. After surging to an early 18-point lead, Oregon just couldn’t keep Penn State down. The Nittany Lions scored twice late in the first half and had the ball with a chance to tie it on multiple occasions in the second half. An awesome Ducks secondary made just enough plays — namely, a second-quarter interception by Dontae Manning that set up a short TD and a fourth-quarter Nikko Reed pick that sealed the game — but when in doubt, Oregon was mainly able to simply ask its offense to keep scoring. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel & Co. obliged.

Oregon ranks fifth nationally in success rate* and produced a 50.7% success rate Saturday night (only Ohio State had topped even 42.4% against Penn State all season). Against a brilliant red zone defense, the Ducks made six red zone trips with five goal-to-go situations and scored five touchdowns. Whenever a great Penn State play knocked them off-schedule, they caught back up to the chains, and they scored on seven of 11 possessions against a team that came in ranked third in defensive SP+. Gabriel is unflappable, and so are the Ducks.

Mind you, the defense has carried Oregon at times, too. When the Ducks got sucked into a slog at Wisconsin, they prevailed 16-13 after making four straight stops at the end. They made stops on Boise State’s last two drives and two of Ohio State’s last three drives in two other tight regular-season wins. They force lots of negative plays and rank 20th in points allowed per drive. But this seasoned, efficient offense always comes through when it’s asked to.

(* Success rate: how frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yards on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third or fourth.)

2. Georgia Bulldogs

First game: vs. Indiana-Notre Dame winner (bye in first round)

National title odds, per SP+: 16.6%

How Georgia wins it all: With upside and resilience

Georgia’s fastball has gone missing a lot this season. Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs came dangerously close to losing to both 7-5 Georgia Tech and 4-8 Kentucky, and they’ve underachieved against SP+ projections by at least 20 points on four different occasions. The defense gave up over 225 rushing yards to both Georgia Tech and UMass and gave up over 300 passing yards to Georgia Tech and Mississippi State. The Dawgs have been frankly maddening in this regard, seemingly deploying their A-game only when it was gravely necessary and not a moment before. And they never found it in a Week 11 loss at Ole Miss. Their skill corps doesn’t strike fear in opponents like previous Georgia attacks did.

We know their best is still pretty brilliant. No team scored more on Tennessee. No team scored more on Texas (or held the Longhorns to fewer points). No team held Clemson to fewer points. Only one team scored more on Alabama. UGA’s defense is among the nation’s best on third downs. (Texas in two games against Georgia: 8-for-32 on third downs.) The Bulldogs still tackle as well as anyone in college football. Their raw talent level and depth are still off the charts, and after a frustrating run of mistakes, quarterback Carson Beck was excellent in the season’s home stretch. (We’ll see how severe his arm injury proves to be.) And with running back Trevor Etienne healthy again, the backfield had more upside.

The Dawgs are as battle-tested as anyone, having played five games against the top eight teams in the country, per SP+ — they went 3-2 and won with their backup QB — and six of the top 22. No playoff team is going to test them in a way they haven’t already been tested, and for as frustrating as they’ve been to follow at times, it’s all forgiven if they shift into gear.

3. Boise State Broncos

First game: vs. SMU-Penn State winner (bye in first round)

National title odds, per SP+: 1.1%

How Boise State wins it all: By having the best player on the field

Oregon has allowed more than 21 points just twice in 12 games: once to Ohio State (which, from a pure talent-and-potential standpoint, is forgivable) and once to Boise State. The Ducks limited BSU quarterback Maddux Madsen to 147 yards in 41 pass attempts (including one sack), but they had absolutely no idea how to stop Ashton Jeanty. The junior from Frisco, Texas, rushed 25 times for 192 yards, gaining at least 3 yards 18 times and scoring twice in three minutes — including on a 70-yard burst — to give the Broncos the lead in the fourth quarter. Oregon needed a punt return touchdown and a kick return touchdown to survive 37-34, its perfect regular season almost succumbing to a blemish in Week 2.

That was an average game for Jeanty. No, seriously. He has averaged 192.1 rushing yards per game in 2024. He’s topped 200 six times, including each of the last two games as Boise State was wrapping up its first ever CFP bid. He has almost matched Melvin Gordon’s otherworldly 2014 season in one fewer game — the Wisconsin running back had 2,587 yards and 29 TDs in 14 games; Jeanty has 2,497 and 29 in 13.

The Broncos are more than just Jeanty. Madsen is a top-30 quarterback, per Total QBR, and the pass rush is dynamite: BSU sacked Oregon’s quick-throwing Dillon Gabriel four times and, in two season-deciding wins over UNLV, sacked the Rebels’ Hajj-Malik Williams a combined 12 times. But in Jeanty, a soon-to-be Heisman finalist, BSU has something a Group of 5 champion is not supposed to have: the definitive, no-doubt best player on the field. That might not mean as much in football as it does in a sport like basketball, with fewer players on the court, but it makes Boise State scary as hell. Just ask Oregon.

4. Arizona State Sun Devils

First game: vs. Clemson-Texas winner (bye in first round)

National title odds, per SP+: 0.6%

How Arizona State wins it all: As the hottest team in the country

When Arizona State lost 24-14 at Cincinnati in Week 8, it had already been a rock-solid season in Tempe. The Sun Devils, 3-9 for each of the past two seasons, were 5-2, and while they were long shots in the Big 12 race, they were fun to watch, and they were likely to go to a bowl for the first time in three years.

They decided to aim just a wee bit higher than that. Following a bye week, quarterback Sam Leavitt came back healthy after missing the Cincy game (his Total QBR over the past five games: 90.6), star running back Cam Skattebo would come out the other side of an injury as well (he has 494 rushing yards and eight TDs in his past three games) and the ASU defense improved even further (they’ve allowed 15.8 points per game and forced nine turnovers over the past four games).

Now Kenny Dillingham’s Sun Devils have won six games in a row, overachieving against SP+ projections by 19.9 points per game in the process. They won four games away from home by an average of 40-15. In what seemed like an even matchup on paper, ASU destroyed Iowa State 45-19 in Saturday’s Big 12 championship. The Sun Devils scored on seven of their first eight drives behind Skattebo’s 208 yards from scrimmage and a couple of bombs from Leavitt — a 63-yarder to Melquan Stovall, a 43-yarder to Malik McClain — and a run of second-half turnovers turned ASU’s first Big 12 title game into a laugher. This team is overflowing with confidence, and Skattebo’s bullish running has given it an identity opponents haven’t been able to handle. And as the 12-seed, ASU will have an opportunity to bust a lot of brackets in its first CFP appearance.

5. Texas Longhorns

First game: vs. No. 12 seed Clemson

National title odds, per SP+: 17.2%

How Texas wins it all: With the best pass defense in college football

The Longhorns lost perhaps the best defensive tackle duo in the country in Outland Trophy winner T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy II. They lost three of last season’s top six DBs from a good but not incredible secondary. Texas was well stocked at linebacker, and coach Steve Sarkisian had certainly attempted to keep solid depth with the addition of six transfer defenders. But while safety transfer Andrew Mukuba (Clemson) has been outstanding and edge rusher Trey Moore (UTSA) has been good, the Longhorns’ defense went from very good to brilliant the old-fashioned way: with recruiting and development.

Sophomore Anthony Hill Jr. (the No. 16 overall prospect in the 2023 class) might be the best linebacker in the country, and freshman Colin Simmons (No. 12 in the 2024 class) might already be the best pass rusher on the team. And a pair of key veterans — end Barryn Sorrell and corner Jahdae Barron — have gone from good to incredible during their senior seasons. The mixture of experience and young upside has produced what is, per SP+, the best Texas defense since 1983. The Horns entered Saturday’s SEC championship ranked first in yards allowed per play and first in points allowed per drive and held Georgia to 4.1 yards per play (2.6 in the first half) and 16 points in regulation. The run defense is solid, and the pass defense, a preseason concern, is almost perfect.

The offense has been snakebitten with key running backs suffering long-term injuries, quarterback Quinn Ewers taking on a couple of injuries himself — and growing awfully turnover-prone late in the season (which makes facing a turnover-hungry Clemson defense tricky in the first round) — and even all-world left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. going down late in the year. But while the Longhorns have attempted to craft a new offensive identity around physical running back Quintrevion Wisner and passes to tight end Gunnar Helm, it’s had a ridiculously reliable defense to lean on. There’s no reason to think that will stop come playoff time.

6. Penn State Nittany Lions

First game: vs. No. 11 seed SMU

National title odds, per SP+: 8.9%

How Penn State wins it all: By any means necessary

The Nittany Lions have scored at least 34 points in eight of 13 games, and they’ve allowed 20 or fewer points in nine. On offense, they rank sixth in yards per play and ninth in points per drive; on defense they rank 10th and 12th, respectively. They score more touchdowns than you in the red zone too — the offense ranks 25th in red zone TD rate, the defense 13th.

James Franklin’s Penn State program is built to eliminate uncertainty and win the winnable plays and winnable games. The Nittany Lions have produced shockingly predictable results of late, going 32-1 as a favorite in the past three seasons but 0-6 as an underdog. In fact, they haven’t won as an underdog since the first game of 2021, and obviously a successful playoff run will require that to change, even if they would be favored in both the first round (against SMU) and quarterfinals (against Boise State). But in neither of their 2024 losses were they overmatched or particularly outgunned. They held Ohio State to 5.6 yards per play and 20 points, the Buckeyes’ second-lowest numbers of the season in both categories. In Saturday night’s Big Ten championship game, they averaged 7.0 yards per play and scored 37 points on Oregon — both season highs against the Ducks’ defense. After a couple of early mistakes, they bullied the Ducks to the tune of 229 rushing yards for Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton and 84 receiving yards for Tyler Warren.

This team has a bit of a “can’t win the big one” reputation at the moment, but there’s nothing fundamentally keeping it from doing so — it just hasn’t yet. And in countless times throughout sports history, the team that couldn’t win the big one suddenly did. This is one of the most well-rounded teams in the playoff field, one capable of winning rock fights or track meets, and it’s going to take a great team’s A-game to knock Penn State out of the CFP.

7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

First game: vs. No. 10 seed Indiana

National title odds, per SP+: 9.0%

How the Irish win it all: With nasty man coverage

Since a 16-14 defeat to Northern Illinois in Week 2, in which the Notre Dame offense averaged just 4.7 yards per play with two turnovers — and NIU’s Ethan Hampton threw the pass of his life, a dart that seemed to teleport through two defenders and into Antario Brown‘s hands for an 83-yard catch-and-run — the Fighting Irish offense has actually held up its end of the bargain. It could still stand to land a few more big pass plays, but thanks to increasingly accurate passing from Riley Leonard and the brilliant running of hurdler extraordinaire Jeremiyah Love (949 yards, 15 TDs), Jadarian Price (651 and seven) and Leonard (778 and 14, minus sacks) the offense has scored at least 28 points (and often much more) in 10 straight games despite O-line injuries. But coordinator Al Golden’s defense has been the story.

Notre Dame ranks sixth in defensive SP+; the Irish take a bend, don’t break approach to run defense but feast on the pass. They lead the nation in completion rate allowed (48.7%) and passing success rate allowed (29.7%), and they’re fourth in both interception rate (5.0%) and yards allowed per dropback (4.7). And they’re not doing this with some tricky zone defense. They’re doing this by blitzing quite a bit (31% of dropbacks) and trusting nasty corners to play nasty man defense.

Incredibly, that has continued despite star corner Benjamin Morrison‘s season-ending hip injury. Corners Christian Gray and Leonard Moore have combined for four interceptions, 12 breakups and a QBR allowed of 30.6, and safeties Xavier Watts and Adon Shuler (combined: eight picks, 13 breakups) are extreme ball hawks. Simply being able to man up against good receivers and keep proper numbers in the box is a cheat code for big defense in big games. Notre Dame can do that as well as anyone in the CFP.

8. Ohio State Buckeyes

First game: vs. No. 9 seed Tennessee

National title odds, per SP+: 12.5%

How the Buckeyes win it all: By winning every first down

Two seasons ago, Ohio State followed up on a painful, frustrating loss to Michigan by playing a nearly perfect game against eventual national champion Georgia, losing only when the potential game-winning field goal misfired at the buzzer.

I say that as a palate-cleanser of sorts: Ryan Day’s Buckeyes again left a bitter taste in the mouth with a poor regular-season finale (this time a particularly poor performance against Michigan), but over the course of 12 games, they were still awesome. They finished the regular season ranked sixth in points per drive and second in points allowed per drive. They played four SP+ top-20 teams and went 3-1 with a couple of blowout wins (35-7 over Iowa, 38-15 over playoff-bound Indiana). They’re good. And their super power is first-down dominance.

• Ohio State offense on first down: 49.9% success rate (ninth), 7.3 yards per play (ninth)

• Ohio state defense on first down: 34.9% success rate allowed (ninth), 4.1 yards allowed per play (second)

The Buckeyes rarely ever fall off-schedule on first down, and they make sure opponents almost always do the same. And that sets the table for everything that comes next. On second-and-short, offensive coordinator Chip Kelly has the whole playbook at his disposal and can choose between feeding backs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson (combined: 1,556 rushing yards and 14 TDs) or maybe the best receiver trio in the country — Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate (combined: 2,260 receiving yards and 23 TDs). On second-and-long, defensive coordinator Jim Knowles can tee off with one of the nation’s best pass rushes (they’re second in sacks per dropback, with four players recording at least four sacks) and particularly active corners Davison Igbinosun and Denzel Burke. They’re always on schedule and you’re not, and that typically produces devastating results.

9. Tennessee Volunteers

First game: at No. 8 seed Ohio State

National title odds, per SP+: 5.1%

How Tennessee wins it all: With havoc

My havoc rate measure — tackles for loss (including sacks), passes defended (interceptions and breakups) and forced fumbles divided by total plays — is about how much disruption a defense creates. And simply put, Tennessee has reached the CFP by creating and preventing havoc.

The Volunteers’ offense has struggled at times in the explosiveness department. They average just 11.7 yards per successful play (115th), in part because of a lack of go-to weaponry on the outside. (Only 28.4% of receptions have come from receivers lined up on the outside instead of the slot, well below the national average of 36.5%.) This means that they have to execute a lot of plays without a mistake to score points, and that can backfire. But thanks in part to running back Dylan Sampson, they also never move backward. Only 11.9% of their non-sack rushes have gained zero or fewer yards, and they’ve allowed a havoc rate of just 11.9% in 2024, 11th nationally.

The defense, meanwhile, rains down havoc. Its 21.1% havoc rate ranks fourth nationally. It gets a particular amount of it from both the front and back of the defense. Edge rusher James Pearce Jr. has produced 7.5 sacks from 44 pressures. Defensive tackles Bryson Eason and Omari Thomas have 13 TFLs and have taken part in 21 run stops. And in the secondary, corner Jermod McCoy has four interceptions and eight breakups, having allowed a paltry 13.2 QBR (fourth in the SEC).

Tennessee’s defense ranked in the 20s in defensive SP+ in each of the past two seasons but has surged to fourth in 2024. You can hit the Vols for a big play here and there, but at some point they’re likely to push you backward or get a hand on the football. They’re also going to make sure you rarely do the same.

10. Indiana Hoosiers

First game: at No. 7 seed Notre Dame

National title odds, per SP+: 4.1%

How Indiana wins it all: With a weakness-free defense

For many, Indiana’s 38-15 loss to Ohio State was disqualifying. Even though the Hoosiers still managed to land a CFP bid at 11-1, the loss was proof that they have no chance of advancing against elite competition.

Hey, maybe these people are right. Kurtis Rourke took five sacks and gained just 22 net yards in 23 pass attempts against the Buckeyes. It was certainly fair to watch Indiana’s offensive performance in that game and doubt virtually any of the stats the Hoosiers had produced elsewhere. Who cares if they averaged 48.5 points per game in 10 games if they averaged just 17.5 against the two best defenses on the schedule (Ohio State’s and Michigan’s)?

They certainly might have to crack 20 points to win a few playoff games, but if they do, the Hoosiers’ defense can take it from there. The Hoosiers’ D was not even slightly overmatched against the Buckeyes, allowing just 316 yards, giving Will Howard just 9.1 yards per completion and, aside from a single 39-yard run from TreVeyon Henderson, giving Henderson and Quinshon Judkins 65 yards in 22 other carries. Ohio State scored 14 points from punts (one returned for a touchdown, one with a botched snap that set OSU up at the IU 7), and two other Buckeyes touchdown drives started in IU territory. Given anything from its offense, Indiana’s defense would have kept the Hoosiers in the game. They have forced the most three-and-outs in the country, they allow the fourth-lowest percentage of gains of 20-plus, and they rank second in yards allowed per carry (not including sacks), which creates an intriguing first-round matchup with a Notre Dame team that loves to run the ball. While they will give you short completions, they almost never miss tackles and rank third in yards allowed per dropback too. This is an intensely well-rounded defense that only needs a certain amount of help from its offense to thrive.

11. SMU Mustangs

First game: at No. 6 seed Penn State

National title odds, per SP+: 3.7%

How SMU wins it all: With high variance

Rhett Lashlee has done a brilliant job of using the transfer portal to raise the ceiling of SMU’s roster. The Mustangs have more than 20 former blue-chippers in tow, and some — running back Brashard Smith, receiver Jordan Hudson, offensive tackles PJ Williams and Savion Byrd, edge rushers Elijah Roberts and Jahfari Harvey — have played key roles. Still, from the perspective of raw recruiting rankings, this isn’t necessarily a playoff-worthy roster.

How has SMU made up the difference? With some high-variance, risk-reward strategies. The Mustangs throw deep more than the average team, especially against man coverage, and they gain 20-plus yards on 8.0% of snaps (21st nationally). And in Kevin Jennings, they have one of the more high-variance QBs in college football: He ranks ninth in yards per dropback (8.3) and 24th in yards per completion (13.4), he’s excellent at escaping a collapsing pocket and making plays on the run, and oh yeah, he throws picks too (56th in INT rate).

On defense, coordinator Scott Symons doesn’t blitz recklessly, but he keeps his safeties relatively close to the line of scrimmage, risking big plays in the name of efficiency. Safeties Ahmaad Moses and Jonathan McGill and slot corner Cale Sanders Jr. have combined for 13 TFLs, nine run stops and a sack in addition to their general ball-hawking duties (six combined interceptions, 11 pass breakups). Throw in some excellent tackling, and despite the risk, the Mustangs rank not only ninth in yards allowed per play — fourth in yards per carry (not including sacks) and 24th in yards per dropback — but sixth in percentage of plays gaining 20-plus yards allowed and 14th in success rate allowed. Now they face a Penn State offense that doesn’t make a ton of explosive plays.

Without an abundance of blue-chippers, and with a little bit of risk, Lashlee has crafted a team that wins both the efficiency and explosiveness battles. That doesn’t leave opponents many avenues for success.

12. Clemson Tigers

First game: at No. 5 seed Texas

National title odds, per SP+: 0.8%

How Clemson wins it all: With house money

Sometimes Cinderella looks nothing like what you thought she would. With Boise State and Arizona State both scoring comfortable conference title game wins and top-four playoff seeds, it was Clemson — two-times-in-the-past-decade national champion Clemson — trying on the glass slipper and sneaking its way into the CFP with a last-second field goal bomb and an ACC championship upset win late Saturday night in Charlotte. A week earlier, Cade Klubnik and the Tigers were devastated, collapsing late against South Carolina to seemingly watch their playoff hopes evaporate. Instead, they backed into the title game when Miami got upset by Syracuse, and they made an early 14-0 burst against SMU just barely hold up 34-31.

That early lead was driven by disruption. It’s the one thing Clemson does particularly well. The Tigers’ defense stops plays at or behind the line of scrimmage 38.5% of the time (eighth in FBS) and 50.8% against the pass (fifth), and they rank 13th in turnover rate (2.9%), 14th in completion rate allowed (55.5%) and 26th in havoc rate (18.5%). They used an early sack-and-strip fumble recovery to set up a short-field touchdown in the opening minutes of the ACC championship game, then picked off a pass later in the first quarter. Without the resulting plus-2 turnover margin, they would have lost. They’ll need another plus-2 margin or better against Texas in Austin, but it’s not out of the question that they’ll get it.

The biggest strength of Clemson’s offense is its general anti-havoc tendencies. The Tigers rank sixth nationally in turnover rate (1.0%), fifth in interception rate (1.2%) and 22nd in havoc rate allowed (13.0%). They don’t make a ton of big plays — through the reemergence of receiver Bryant Wesco Jr. (eight catches for 143 yards and two TDs) in Charlotte was welcome — instead, basically trying to make fewer mistakes than the opposition and just the right plays at the end of the game. They enter the CFP ebullient and ready to make some noise.