Just days before free agency began, the quarterback carousel lurched in a way that almost no one expected. Geno Smith, the longtime backup who became a reliable starter for the Seattle Seahawks under then-head coach Pete Carroll, is headed to the Las Vegas Raiders to reunite with Carroll in exchange for a third-round pick. Suddenly, the Raiders have a quarterback and the Seahawks are looking for one.

To determine each grade, I am evaluating moves based on multiple factors, including on-field impact, salary cap implications, compensation, player value/age and the context of a team’s short- and long-term outlooks. How large is the effect of this decision, and how sure are we it’s a good or bad choice? How does this affect a team’s chance to win the Super Bowl, either this season or in the future?

More Smith coverage:
Seven big questions on the Geno Smith trade

Grading the trade

Raiders get: QB Geno Smith
Seahawks get: 2025 third-round pick (No. 92 overall)

Raiders: Las Vegas found its next quarterback in a very unexpected place. Pete Carroll, Tom Brady and the Raiders — after missing out on Matthew Stafford, who decided to return to the Rams — elected to forego a free agent market filled with question marks and make a deal for Geno Smith, Carroll’s old quarterback.

This would have been a shocking thing to write a few years ago, but Smith represents more of a sure thing for the Raiders than any of the other available options. He has a longer track record of success than Sam Darnold, has been better in recent seasons than Russell Wilson or Justin Fields (or even Aaron Rodgers, who also carries baggage that a team re-setting its culture might want to avoid). No rookie in this class is considered a sure thing, and the Raiders would have had to give up a haul to move up to the No. 1 overall pick.

Smith ranked seventh, 14th and 21st in QBR, respectively, over the past three seasons. That kind of drop last season isn’t ideal, but he had a lot on his shoulders behind a shaky offensive line, a run game that failed to get going and low rates of play-action. (His receiver quality was strong, however.)

Smith is an accurate passer. He has ranked in the top six in completion percentage over expectation (per NFL Next Gen Stats) in each of the past three seasons, including ranking fourth last season (plus-3%) and first in 2022 (plus-5%).

On one hand, Smith is 34 years old and is entering the final year of his deal. On the other, that’s not that old and he is currently a value making $31 million this year — though it remains to be seen if he’ll sign a new deal with Las Vegas (more on that in a minute).

In a vacuum, getting Smith on his current contract for a third-round pick is easily worth it. But how high does he actually elevate Las Vegas? Unfortunately for the Raiders, they will likely be stuck in mediocrity with a very limited path to advance out of it due to playing in a very tough AFC West. We’ll see how they spend in free agency, but Smith is likely going to enjoy far less receiver support in Las Vegas than he had in Seattle. He will be paired with offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, who is coming off a national championship with Ohio State.

Smith can help right the ship, and I’m sympathetic to the idea the organization might need that. But he is not going to be the quarterback who can elevate the team to a championship run. He’s good enough to win with, but the Raiders don’t have the roster to do that. And by the time they do, Smith might not be young enough to help.

Ultimately, how I view this deal for the Raiders hinges on his contract situation. If they leave his contract as is, I would endorse the acquisition and give it a B+ or an A-, in part because they would retain the possibility of recouping a compensation pick if they let him walk next year. The Raiders could live with a new contract with a light raise but no real guaranteed money beyond 2025.

But a new contract that guarantees new money beyond 2025 would make this a far worse trade. The Raiders shouldn’t do anything that, if they found another QB solution of the future, would impede them beyond this season (a la the Falcons right now)

I’ll give a B grade for now, anticipating the middle scenario but with an asterisk to note a possible adjustment depending on a potential ensuing contract.

Raiders’ grade: B*

Seahawks: It seems as if this team wanted to tear itself down (at least on offense) more than we might have realized. Offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb was fired, Tyler Lockett was released, DK Metcalf has requested a trade and now they don’t have a quarterback. NFL teams are far more reticent to tear themselves down than they ought to be, because it’s usually not the worst thing to do. (If the Seahawks are really going down that path, they should ship out defensive tackle Leonard Williams for draft picks, too. Don’t stop here).

The Seahawks did not strike me as a team that needed to go down the teardown road, though. There are solid players on this roster. Jaxon Smith-Njigba broke out in 2024 and makes an excellent receiver pairing with Metcalf. They have a good left tackle in Charles Cross, even if there are other line issues. They have a couple defensive stars in Williams and cornerback Devon Witherspoon, along with players who have flashed at times such as edge rusher Boye Mafe and corner Riq Woolen.

In other words, if everything broke right the Seahawks could have been a surprise contender, either in 2025 or the not-so-distant future. And they could have brought in an upside quarterback in the draft to develop behind Smith this season. If it all worked out, they could have transitioned to that signal-caller in 2026 while collecting a compensatory pick for Smith.

Now, Seattle only has Sam Howell at quarterback while it searches for a starter. My assumption is it will make a move for a bridge quarterback, ideally one with upside such as Justin Fields, and then also add a rookie in the draft. If the Seahawks follow up by signing free agent Sam Darnold to a big contract, that would be a poor swap.

Seattle is clearly worse today than it was yesterday. Either way, it still needed to begin a search for its next QB, but this doesn’t really help it accomplish that goal, either. And in the meantime, the franchise lacks a quarterback.

​​Seahawks grade: C+