Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 14, which kicks off Thursday with the Packers at the Bears.

This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.

The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.

(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)

Jump to:
GB-DET | JAX-TEN | NYJ-MIA | ATL-MIN | NO-NYG | CAR-PHI | CLE-PIT
LV-TB | SEA-ARI | BUF-LAR | CHI-SF | LAC-KC | CIN-DAL

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions

Projected Score: Lions 28, Packers 21

Lineup locks: Josh Jacobs, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Jayden Reed

Sam LaPorta has a total of just 25 receiving yards over his past two games, but there’s some reason for optimism. LaPorta has seen at least six targets in four of his past five games, with his target share improving from 10% during Weeks 1-7 to 22% during Weeks 8-13. LaPorta’s TD production seems to be back as well, as he’s scored in every other game tracing back to Week 4 (including two in Week 13). LaPorta hasn’t quite returned to “lineup lock” status, but the recent uptick in usage and production is enough to put him back in the weekly TE1 mix — especially this week against a Green Bay defense that has allowed the fourth-most TE catches and sixth-most TE yards.

Over/Under: 48.3 (2nd highest)
Win Probability: Lions 75% (3rd highest)

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans

Projected Score: Titans 23, Jaguars 21

Lineup locks: Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley, Brian Thomas Jr., Evan Engram

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine continues to defy all logic, having scored two more TDs on Sunday despite catching only three passes in the game. Westbrook-Ikhine now has eight TDs on 20 receptions (38 targets) this season. Despite the incredible run, you can bet on regression to the mean in the immediate future. For perspective, only one WR in NFL history has produced a season with 20-or-fewer catches and at least eight TDs (Marc Boerigter, 2002). Westbrook-Ikhine’s xTD sits at 3.3 and, while he ranks fourth in WR touchdowns, he’s only WR90 in receptions. On the plus side, Westbrook did see a career-high eight targets last week and he’s now managed a target share in the 20-23% range in three straight outings. That’s enough to get him into the flex mix in a good matchup against Jacksonville and with six teams on a bye.

Over/Under: 43.6 (7th highest)
Win Probability: Titans 57% (11th highest)

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins

Projected Score: Dolphins 25, Jets 18

Lineup locks: De’Von Achane, Breece Hall, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Tyreek Hill, Jonnu Smith

Jaylen Waddle‘s resurgence was short-lived. After putting up 144 yards and a score on nine targets in Week 12, Waddle plummeted back to just 53 yards on four targets in Green Bay last week. Waddle has now seen a single-digit target share in every other game tracing back to Week 7 (that’s four of his past seven outings). He’s reached 11 fantasy points in two straight games, but fell short of that mark in all of his prior nine outings (7.1 average). He’ll have his hands full this week against a Jets defense that has allowed the fewest WR fantasy points and receptions. Consider him to be no more than a flex option.

Over/Under: 43.3 (8th highest)
Win Probability: Dolphins 75% (4th highest)

Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings

Projected Score: Vikings 23, Falcons 19

Lineup locks: Sam Darnold, Bijan Robinson, Aaron Jones, Justin Jefferson, Drake London, Jordan Addison, Darnell Mooney, T.J. Hockenson

Kyle Pitts was held without a reception Sunday, which marks his second such game of the season. In fact, Pitts has been held below 12 yards in three of his past four games and under 10 fantasy points in four straight. Playing time is now a major concern, as Pitts played on 68% of snaps during Weeks 1-11, but fell to a season-low 39% coming out of the team’s bye week this past Sunday. Pitts somehow still sits in the top 10 at tight end in yards and end zone targets, but he’s 20th in catches and has only three TDs. He can’t be trusted in lineups right now.

Over/Under: 41.8 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Vikings 64% (8th highest)

New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants

Projected Score: Saints 21, Giants 19

Lineup locks: Alvin Kamara, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Malik Nabers

With Taysom Hill done for the season, Juwan Johnson is a name to watch. Johnson matched a season high with six targets Sunday after finding the end zone in his prior game. Johnson has been quiet most of the season, but New Orleans remains depleted at wide receiver and has leaned heavily on its tight ends in recent weeks as a result. Johnson has a history of second half of the season surges, having scored 10 of his 11 TDs from 2022-23 after Week 6. Johnson sits third on the Saints in targets since Week 7 and his 8.2 YPT is a career high. This is a tough matchup as the Giants have allowed the second-fewest TE fantasy points (and only one TD), but Johnson can be viewed as a solid TE2 option. He isn’t the worst streamer if you’re in a pinch.

Over/Under: 39.7 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Saints 58% (10th highest)

Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles

Projected Score: Eagles 28, Panthers 15

Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Chuba Hubbard, A.J. Brown

Adam Thielen posted an 8-99-1 receiving line on 10 targets against Tampa Bay on Sunday. The targets and receptions were his most since Week 11 of last season and the 23.9 fantasy points nearly matched his total from his first four games this season (33.6). The big game isn’t completely surprising, as Thielen produced 1,014 yards on 103 receptions with Bryce Young last season, so there’s reason for optimism that Thielen can find his way into the flex discussion moving forward. Of course, this may not be the week to stream him, as the Eagles have surrendered the fewest WR yards and the lowest YPT (6.7) this season.

Over/Under: 44 (6th highest)
Win Probability: Eagles 90% (Highest)

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Projected Score: Steelers 23, Browns 18

Lineup locks: Najee Harris, George Pickens, Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku

Jeudy should be considered a “no-doubt lineup lock” moving forward. Jameis Winston‘s favorite target was fantasy’s top-scoring WR in Week 13 and has now reeled off four straight top-25 outings. He’s averaged 23.9 fantasy PPG in the four games, which trails only Ja’Marr Chase for best in the league during the span. Jeudy is seeing a ton of volume (9.8 targets per game in his past five outings) which has led to big-time production, including Monday’s 235-yard showing. Jeudy is on the WR2 radar against a Steelers defense that allowed him to reach 85 yards on six targets in Week 12.

Over/Under: 41.4 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Steelers 67% (7th highest)

Las Vegas Raiders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Projected Score: Buccaneers 27, Raiders 18

Lineup locks: Bucky Irving, Jakobi Meyers, Mike Evans, Brock Bowers

Cade Otton is in a slump, having now produced no more than 35 yards and 8.5 fantasy points in three straight games. The funk comes after Otton had produced 18-plus points in three straight. On the plus side, Otton’s usage hasn’t changed much, as he’s handled seven-plus targets in five of his past six outings. Also, Tampa Bay has a very beneficial schedule moving forward, which includes this week’s matchup with a Las Vegas defense that has allowed the fourth-most TE fantasy points and the second-most receptions and yards. Otton is a good rebound candidate and best-viewed as a mid-to-back-end TE1.

Over/Under: 45.3 (4th highest)
Win Probability: Buccaneers 80% (2nd highest)

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals

Projected Score: Cardinals 23, Seahawks 20

Lineup locks: Kyler Murray, James Conner, Kenneth Walker III, DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride

In terms of touchdowns and points, the Cardinals’ offense has had the league’s hardest schedule through 13 weeks. All four key fantasy positions (QB, RB, WR, TE) have had a tough slate — and that’s especially the case for QB, as Murray has dealt with the hardest schedule so far this season. I mention all this because the script gets flipped over the next four weeks: Arizona’s QB, RB, WR and TE rooms will all face one of the top-10 easiest slates during the span, with the Seahawks, Patriots, Panthers and Rams on the docket. Murray, Conner, Harrison and McBride are all listed as “lineup locks” and all four are well positioned for high-end production the rest of the way.

Over/Under: 42.3 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Cardinals 61% (9th highest)

Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams

Projected Score: Bills 27, Rams 22

Lineup locks: Josh Allen, James Cook, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Khalil Shakir

Amari Cooper has appeared in four games since joining the Bills. The veteran receiver came out hot with 66 yards and one TD in his Week 7 team debut, but has since totaled a 6-70-0 receiving line in three outings. Cooper has yet to clear four targets in any game and has played on an underwhelming 46% of snaps. Game script hasn’t helped (Buffalo has won his four games by an average of 19.8 points), but he obviously hasn’t much of a hand in those wins, even with Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid sidelined. Cooper isn’t the worst desperation flex, but he’s best left on benches.

Over/Under: 48.5 (Highest)
Win Probability: Bills 67% (6th highest)

Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers

Projected Score: Bears 22, 49ers 21

Lineup locks: Brock Purdy, D’Andre Swift, Jauan Jennings, DJ Moore, Deebo Samuel Sr., Keenan Allen, George Kittle

With Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason both now on IR, the 49ers will turn to Isaac Guerendo as their lead back. We got a sneak peak of this in Week 8 when the rookie played on 42 snaps (66%) and was utilized as both a rusher (14 carries) and receiver (four targets on 16 routes). He showed well with 102 yards and a score on 17 touches, albeit in a plus-matchup against Dallas.

Guerendo is sure to defer some work to Kyle Juszczyk and Patrick Taylor Jr., but there’s upside here, as he has the size (221 pounds), speed (a 4.33 40 at April’s combine) and the receiving/blocking ability to contribute in all areas. Guerendo should be viewed as an RB2 in a good Week 14 matchup against a Chicago defense that has allowed the fourth-most RB rushing yards and fourth-highest YPC (5.0).

Over/Under: 42.8 (9th highest)
Win Probability: Bears 54% (13th highest)

Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

Projected Score: Chiefs 24, Chargers 23

Lineup locks: Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkey, Travis Kelce

With J.K. Dobbins out last week, the Chargers’ RB usage was as follows: Gus Edwards handled six carries and one target on 24 snaps (52%), Kimani Vidal managed four carries and zero targets on 12 snaps (26%) and Hassan Haskins was limited to one carry and zero targets on seven snaps (15%). Not one of these backs cleared 33 yards or 4.3 fantasy points in the game. This was a very low-volume game for Los Angeles (45 snaps), so we didn’t learn a ton, but it was notable that Edwards was on the field for 13 passing plays, compared to seven for Vidal and six for Haskins.

Also expected to lead the way in terms of carries and goal line work, Edwards’ overall usage makes him the clear best flex option of this group, whereas Vidal belongs on benches and Haskins on waivers. Edwards will have his hands full in Week 14 against a Chiefs defense that has allowed the fewest RB yards and fantasy points. No back has reached 20 points against the Chiefs, and only one cleared 15. This is a situation ideally avoided this week.

Over/Under: 46.5 (3rd highest)
Win Probability: Chiefs 55% (12th highest)

Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys

Projected Score: Bengals 25, Cowboys 19

Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, CeeDee Lamb

Rico Dowdle came out slowly following Dak Prescott‘s season-ending injury, but he’s picked it up over the past two weeks. Dowdle has now had 22-plus touches and 98-plus yards in consecutive games. Dowdle has been “boom/bust,” managing 19-plus fantasy points three times, but also falling short of 11 points in seven of his other eight outings. Perhaps most notably, Dowdle has played on 67% of snaps over the past two weeks, compared to just 49% during Weeks 1-11. Taking over a feature-back role suggests Dowdle very well could sustain RB2/flex numbers moving forward. He’s in that mix this week against a Bengals defense that allowed 24.9 fantasy points to Najee Harris last week.

Over/Under: 44.3 (5th highest)
Win Probability: Bengals 73% (5th highest)