Without 2024’s College Football Playoff expansion, we’d have gotten a four-team playoff pitting Georgia and Texas against each other for the third time and Oregon and Penn State against each other for the second. Ohio State wouldn’t have gotten an extra mulligan and used it to shift into World Destroyer Mode, Cam Skattebo wouldn’t have produced 242 yards from scrimmage in his lone CFP game, and good lord, we would have been arguing about Penn State vs. Notre Dame for the last spot so much in the final weeks of the season.

Even with only one genuine classic game in the first two rounds, in other words, the inaugural 12-team playoff has been more fun than the alternative. And we still get three more chances to produce something incredible. The CFP semifinals kick off Thursday with two 1980s rivals, Notre Dame and Penn State, playing a game that almost couldn’t possibly be closer on paper, and then the hottest team in all the land (Ohio State) facing Texas and its clutch former Buckeyes quarterback (Quinn Ewers) on Friday. Who advances to the national title game? Here’s everything you need to know about the semifinal round.

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Best players in the semis
Notre Dame-Penn State
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Biggest plays of the CFP

The 20 best players of the CFP thus far (semifinalists only)

Before the CFP began, we ranked its top players. Looking specifically at teams that are still alive — sorry, Cam Skattebo — let’s look at which players have performed the best thus far. As you would probably expect, Ohio State has disproportionate representation here.

1. WR Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State (13 receptions for 290 yards and four touchdowns). Against awesome Tennessee and Oregon defenses, Smith, still a damn freshman, looked like a man playing against boys. He has taken short passes long distances and made tough downfield catches, and Ohio State has scored either on or after nine of his 13 receptions thus far. His playoff exploits have clinched Best True Freshman Receiver Ever status, and his season isn’t even done yet.

2-3. DE JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer, Ohio State (Tuimoloau: 13 tackles, four sacks, nine pressures, three run stops, one forced fumble, two pass breakups; Sawyer: seven tackles, 3.5 sacks, seven pressures, one run stop, five pass breakups). That’s 7.5 sacks, 16 pressures, four run stops and seven batted passes in two games from two players! Ohio State came into the CFP ranked first in defensive SP+ and has still allowed seven fewer points than projected in two games, primarily because these two ends have produced the stats of about four or five awesome players. Texas’ offensive line was awfully shaky against Arizona State, and if it doesn’t slow these two down, I’m not sure anything else matters.

4. WR Matthew Golden, Texas (nine receptions for 198 yards and one TD). The Houston transfer has grown more and more important as the season has unfolded. He averaged 41.5 receiving yards through October, raised that to 61.0 per game in November and has now averaged 120.0 in December and January. And with Texas’ season on the line against Arizona State, Ewers looked to Golden to save the day. It worked.

5. S Andrew Mukuba, Texas (11 tackles, four run stops, one game-clinching interception). Two things transformed Texas’ secondary in 2024: Corner Jahdae Barron taking the leap (he won the Jim Thorpe Award for the nation’s best defensive back) and Mukuba transferring from Clemson. Mukuba has been Texas’ best mess cleaner all season, and in two playoff games, he has also been the Horns’ best run disruptor.

6. DE Dani Dennis-Sutton, Penn State (11 tackles, four run stops, 2.5 sacks, eight pressures). Granted, he might deserve a point deduction for a cheap shot he took on Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty blocking after an interception in the quarterfinals. But through two games, he has been the most disruptive force on a Penn State defense that has, per SP+, allowed 22.7 fewer points than projected through two games.

7. RB TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State (25 rushes and receptions for 248 yards and four touchdowns). Smith’s exploits have almost overshadowed him, but when Henderson elected to return for a fourth season in Columbus, he did so presumably to both raise his draft stock after injury troubles and shine in these exact games. He has averaged 9.7 yards per carry and 10.6 yards per catch in the CFP.

8. DE Junior Tuihalamaka, Notre Dame (nine tackles, one sack, five pressures, one run stop, one fumble recovery, one pass breakup). Marcus Freeman’s Fighting Irish have won two games with a committee approach, with just about everyone on the roster stepping up for a big play at one point or another. But Tuihalamaka was the best player on the field in the biggest win of the Freeman era, Thursday’s Sugar Bowl conquest of Georgia.

9. QB Will Howard, Ohio State (41 for 55 passing for 630 yards, five TDs, one INT, no sacks and 34 rushing yards). With both Smith and fellow receiver Emeka Egbuka playing like they have and Henderson running so explosively, there’s no question that Howard has had a pretty easy job. But completing 75% of his passes at 15.4 yards per completion is still brilliant work.

10. RB Kaytron Allen, Penn State (30 rushes and receptions for 232 yards and two touchdowns). Like Golden, Allen has shifted into a completely different gear in the postseason. Including the Big Ten championship game against Oregon, he has carried 42 times for 328 yards in December and beyond; he had 17 carries for 134 yards against Boise State, and it somehow seemed like he wasn’t touching the ball nearly enough.

11. DT Tyleik Williams, Ohio State (12 tackles, four run stops, four pressures). For as good as Ohio State’s defensive ends have been, the 327-pound Williams has made their jobs pretty easy, spending most of the first two rounds cratering opponents’ interior lines. It’s hard for defensive tackles to rack up disruption stats, but averaging two run stops and two pressures per game is awfully impressive.

12-13. LT Donovan Jackson, Ohio State and LG Billy Schrauth, Notre Dame (Jackson: 112 snaps, one blown block, zero penalties; Schrauth: 128 snaps, one blown block, zero penalties). Of the four offensive lines in the semifinals, only Ohio State’s has been without issue. Notre Dame’s rushing success rate* has been under 40% in both games (its season average before the CFP: 48.2%), Penn State’s offensive line was responsible for five of the team’s 10 penalties against Boise State, and after an excellent game against Clemson, Texas’ banged-up line allowed three sacks and struggled to create anything in run blocking against Arizona State.

We need to reserve a spot on the list for these two, however. Jackson moved from left guard to left tackle after a season-ending injury to top draft prospect Josh Simmons, and while the Buckeyes’ line wobbled late in the season, Jackson has keyed near-perfection in the CFP. He hasn’t allowed a sack since facing Penn State’s Abdul Carter in October, and he has been brilliant in protecting Howard’s blind side. Schrauth, meanwhile, is the only other player besides Jackson to combine zero penalties with only one blown block (as recorded by Sports Info Solutions).

(*Success rate: How frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third or fourth.)

14. QB Quinn Ewers, Texas (37 for 54 passing for 524 yards, four TDs, two INTs, five sacks, 27 rushing yards and one TD). Ewers might be the hardest player in this tournament to evaluate. He had to do very little against Clemson with the run game thriving, and while his performance against Arizona State was terribly uneven, he began the game with two perfect passes and ended it with three. His two interceptions and five sacks taken have contributed to Texas’ terribly uneven offensive performances, but he also came up huge when he had to.

15. LB Dominic DeLuca, Penn State (nine tackles, two interceptions, one pick six, 0.5 sacks, one pressure, one run stop). His first-quarter pick-six sent Penn State on its way (and took Beaver Stadium to a transcendent place) in the first round against SMU, and a second interception ended SMU’s only chance to get back into the game. He was excellent in PSU’s efforts to slow Ashton Jeanty in the quarterfinals, too.

16. WR Jordan Faison, Notre Dame (13 combined receptions and rushes for 144 yards). With Notre Dame’s run game struggling in the efficiency department, Faison has been vital when it comes to moving the chains. Only one of his 13 playoff touches has gained even 15 yards, but seven produced first downs and two more nearly did.

17. OLB Colin Simmons, Texas (11 tackles, one sack, eight pressures, one run stop, one interception). The five-star freshman has delivered on the hype this season, and he keeps getting better. He has generated at least four pressures in four of his past five games, including each of two playoff games. He has managed only one sack, but he’s constantly in the backfield, and he dropped into coverage and picked off a deflected pass against Clemson, too.

18. LB Tony Rojas, Penn State (11 tackles, one pick six, two pass breakups, two pressures). The progenitor of PSU’s other pick six against SMU has done a little bit of everything in two games, lining up at both inside and outside linebacker, making five tackles against the run and six against the pass, generating pressure on two of four pass rushes but while breaking up two passes in coverage and generating the second-most havoc plays* on the team behind Dennis-Sutton.

(* Havoc plays: TFLs, interceptions, pass breakups and forced fumbles.)

19. LB Cody Simon, Ohio State (17 tackles, two sacks, two pressures, one run stop, two pass breakups). Somehow Simon has managed to snag a couple of sacks that Tuimoloau and Sawyer didn’t get to first. He has been as good as ever in the role of tackling machine — he has only missed one tackle in two games — but his disruption has been welcome as well.

20. K Mitch Jeter, Notre Dame (4-for-4 on FGs over 40 yards). Jeter’s return to health has been a major playoff subplot. Despite blocking kicks and producing explosive returns, the Irish rank 92nd in special teams SP+ because they had just about the least reliable place-kicking in the country in the regular season. But Jeter was perfect against Georgia, and with points potentially at a premium against PSU he could play an equally vital role.

Capital One Orange Bowl: No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions (13-2) vs. No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (13-1)

Thursday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN

Notre Dame and Penn State have played 19 times in their history, and this one’s a tiebreaker of sorts: The series is tied at 9-9-1. But 12 of the 19 meetings came in an incredible run between 1981 and 1992 — a period that included each team’s last national title (Penn State in 1986, Notre Dame in 1988). All 12 games were in mid- to late-November when the stakes were as high as possible, and most were either comfortable Irish victories or down-to-the-wire Penn State wins.

In 1987, unranked Penn State got 214 rushing yards from Blair Thomas and stopped a late two-point conversion to beat No. 7 Notre Dame 21-20 in Happy Valley in a game with negative wind chills. In a snow bowl in South Bend in 1992, the Irish actually connected on a two-point conversion — Rick Mirer found Reggie Brooks in the corner of the end zone to win 17-16.

The most memorable finish — and the most important, from a national title perspective — might have come in 1990. Top-ranked Notre Dame hosted No. 18 Penn State and led 21-7 at halftime, but the Nittany Lions charged back and tied the game with a touchdown pass from Tony Sacca to tight end (and current Notre Dame defensive coordinator) Al Golden. Knowing a tie did the Irish no good, Penn State punted from the Irish 40 late in the game, pinned them deep and picked off a Mirer pass with about a minute left. Freshman kicker Craig Fayak nailed a 34-yard field goal to dash Notre Dame’s national title hopes.

In the past 30 years, the teams met only twice, in a pair of home-and-home blowouts in 2006 and 2007. It took two playoff rounds to get these teams back on the same field, but hell yes, here we are. It’s a shame that the weather probably won’t stink. Regardless, this semifinal seems almost deadlocked on paper. Penn State’s offense averages 6.6 yards per play and 2.9 points per drive, while Notre Dame’s averages 6.5 and 3.0, respectively. Penn State’s defense allows 4.6 yards per play and 1.4 points per drive, while Notre Dame’s allows 4.6 and 1.1. Both teams boast explosive runners, less-than-explosive passing games and smart, swarming defenses.

Marcus Freeman’s Fighting Irish are listed as two-point favorites, which either dooms James Franklin’s Nittany Lions or gives them a chance to break an oddly damning streak: They’ve lost 10 games in a row as an underdog, and they’ve lost 15 of 16 dating back to the start of 2017. They’re underdogs only a couple of times per year, and they almost never lose as favorites, but if they want to play for the national title for the first time since 1986, this is a streak they must end in Miami.

Here are the three biggest questions I have for Thursday night at Hard Rock.

1. Who gets more from the run game?

There’s an old-school element to both of these offenses. Both run more than the national average, though both also include interesting efficiency elements beyond “hand the ball to the running back.” Notre Dame gets 9.6 non-sack carries per game from quarterback Riley Leonard, who carried 13 times for 91 grueling yards against Georgia in the quarterfinals. Penn State, meanwhile, mixes in frequent use of the best tight end in the country, Tyler Warren (98 catches, 1,158 yards, eight touchdowns), in the short and intermediate areas of the field. But both also really like handing the ball to the backs.

Penn State’s Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton have averaged 23.9 carries and 136.1 yards per game. Though Singleton missed one regular-season game, he was the more successful back through November. Allen has dominated since then.

Of course, including Leonard, you’ve got three Notre Dame rushers on that chart, too. Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price average 18.4 carries and 128.3 yards per game, and while the Irish rank a merely good and not great 26th in rushing success rate, they’re second in yards per carry (not including sacks) because of explosiveness. Love averages 7.3 yards per carry, Price is at 6.6, and among the 209 FBS rushers with at least 100 carries on the season, Price ranks first in yards per carry after contact (4.8) and Love is third (4.6). Considering both youth and season-ending injuries, the Irish offensive line has been better than expected, but Love and Price have still gained a lot of their yards on their own.

Love might not be anywhere close to 100%, though, after suffering a knee injury in November and limping off again against Georgia. Price is a dynamite tackle-breaker in his own right, and the 6-foot-4, 216-pound Leonard is physical in his own right, but Love’s top-end speed has driven a lot of Notre Dame’s success this season.

Price and Love combined for just 56 yards in 16 carries against Georgia, leaving Leonard to carry a lot of the weight himself, and Penn State’s run defense has been even better than UGA’s this season. Notre Dame’s is pretty good itself.

Penn State’s entire offense is predicated on staying in control, staying on schedule and avoiding negative plays and turnovers. Notre Dame’s run defense is reactive and doesn’t create many negative plays, but it swallows up runs for short gains. Meanwhile, Notre Dame’s offense mostly avoids negative plays and carves out huge chunks, while PSU will give up some chunk plays in the name of tackles for loss. Either offense will be at a massive disadvantage without run success.

2. Who scores TDs in the red zone?

As Ashton Jeanty can attest, Penn State’s defense limits damage pretty well. The Nittany Lions force you to work pragmatically down the field, overcoming negative plays in the process, and if you reach the red zone you have to score on the best red zone defense in the country. The Nittany Lions have allowed touchdowns on just 41% of opponents’ red zone trips, and they seem to be getting better in this regard: SMU and Boise State went just 1-for-8 in turning red zone trips into TDs. PSU’s brilliance in this end of the field prevented either opponent from coming back from early deficits.

Notre Dame’s offense ranks a healthy 16th in red zone touchdown rate (72.7%), but the Irish have gone just 3-for-6 in the CFP. It’s great that kicker Mitch Jeter has become so reliable in the field goals department, but touchdowns will be extremely valuable in a game like this. Penn State’s offense has gone 4-for-4 in the red zone in the CFP and has produced a 72.6% TD rate for the season (17th), but Notre Dame’s defense, 23rd on the season (51.4%), has allowed only one touchdown in five playoff trips.

The game could be decided in this 20-yard patch of the field.

3. Where do the big plays come from?

Notre Dame played with fire in the semifinals, generating just one gain of 15-plus yards to Georgia’s five and needing a plus-2 turnover margin, a kick return touchdown and three fourth-down stops to prevail. It pulled it off, but that doesn’t mean the Irish want to follow that recipe twice. Winning the big-play battle would be enormous, especially because neither offense looks likely to generate a ton of them.

Among the nation’s verifiably awesome, few generate fewer big plays than Notre Dame and Penn State. The Irish rank 80th in yards per successful play (12.4), and the Nittany Lions rank 98th (12.1). Looking specifically at successful passes, PSU ranks 90th (14.5) and Notre Dame ranks 131st (12.7). Leonard has averaged a particularly low 10.3 yards per completion for the season, and that average has dropped to 7.7 in the CFP. He neither attempts nor lands deep shots.

Leonard could benefit, however, if Penn State’s Abdul Carter is less than 100%. He left PSU’s quarterfinal win with what appeared to be a left shoulder injury, and while Dani Dennis-Sutton was awesome in his stead, Carter has still been the Nittany Lions’ best defender in 2024. Carter and Dennis-Sutton are among five PSU defenders with at least 12 run stops, but Carter has also been one of the nation’s best pass rushers: His 11 sacks rank seventh in the nation, and his 18.6% pressure rate off the edge ranks second behind only UTSA’s Jimmori Robinson. He’s first among power-conference defenders, and without his pressure Leonard might have an extra beat to find an open receiver.

Al Golden can and will throw a number of different looks at Drew Allar. Notre Dame has survived an incredible number of defensive injuries — namely, to star corner Benjamin Morrison and, more recently, defensive end Rylie Mills — and shined with pure depth. Four different defenders have recorded between 13% and 22% of their snaps as slot corners, and few defenses have allowed fewer passing yards from tight ends in 2024. The Irish haven’t faced anyone as good as Warren, but Warren could face a number of different matchups. And the idea of Warren facing off with star safety Xavier Watts is tantalizing.

Beyond the slot, however, Notre Dame has asked tons of defenders to play aggressively and come up big, and they’ve done so. Among semifinalists, the Irish have eight of the top 20 players when it comes to individual defender havoc rate.

Junior Tuihalamaka was dominant against Georgia, but Notre Dame can ask for havoc contributions from just about anyone. Georgia was able to punish this aggression at times with downfield passing — among Gunner Stockton’s 20 completions were gains of 67, 32 and 21 yards (plus a couple of key drops from Georgia’s drops-prone receiving corps) — but (A) Allar doesn’t look deep all that often, and (B) Stockton also took four sacks with 18 pressures.

Defenses appear to hold more advantages in this one. But whether it’s from a big rush or a single deep shot — Omari Evans did reel in a long early TD against Boise State — any big plays could count double in Miami.

Current line: Notre Dame -2 | SP+ projection: PSU by 0.3 | FPI projection: Notre Dame by 1.5

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: No. 5 Texas Longhorns (13-2) vs. No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes (13-2)

Friday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN

It makes perfect sense that Texas and Ohio State are playing in the semifinals: While these storied programs have played only three times in their history, the winner soon played for the national title all three times.

In 2005 in Columbus, No. 4 Ohio State led No. 2 Texas by six late, but a 24-yard touchdown pass from Vince Young to Limas Sweed and a safety in the closing seconds gave the Horns a 25-22 win. No one else would stay within single digits of UT until the Horns’ 41-38 win over USC in the national title game. In 2006 in Austin, Troy Smith threw touchdown passes to Anthony Gonzalez and Ted Ginn Jr., and after tying the first 29 minutes 7-7, No. 1 Ohio State won the last 31 minutes over No. 2 Texas by a 24-7 margin on the way to a BCS championship game loss to Florida.

The third and final meeting came in the Fiesta Bowl to end the 2008 season. After watching a 17-6 lead turn into a 21-17 deficit in the fourth quarter, Colt McCoy hit Quan Cosby for a 26-yard touchdown with 16 seconds left to secure a 24-21 win for No. 3 Texas, setting the table for an unbeaten run and another BCS championship game bid in 2009.

This is a helmet game to the extreme. You know if Ohio State and Texas are playing, the stakes are high. And the loser of this game will get an immediate shot at revenge, too: The Buckeyes and Longhorns will play to start the 2025 season, too.

Texas heads to Arlington content in the knowledge that it can come through in tight situations. The Longhorns lost their lead against Arizona State but never lost their cool and won six of the game’s final seven plays. The last time we saw Ohio State in a close game, the Buckeyes were melting down in a loss to Michigan. But close-and-late situations matter only if it’s close late. Ohio State put together maybe the two most impressive performances of the season in its first two playoff games. As long as the Buckeyes are playing angry, they might be untouchable. But maintaining that level over multiple games is awfully difficult. Here are the three biggest questions I have for Friday night at Jerry World.

1. What can Texas do that Oregon and Tennessee couldn’t?

Each semifinalist has played two CFP games thus far. Ohio State has faced the toughest pair of opponents, but the Buckeyes have averaged the most yards per play (8.0) and allowed the fewest (3.8), and they have produced the highest success rate (50.4%) and allowed the lowest (35.0%). The defensive line has gone from great to virtually unbeatable, and an offensive tweak is paying massive dividends.

According to ESPN Analytics, Ohio State used 12 personnel (one RB, two TEs and two WRs) 15% of the time in the regular season, but in two playoff games, the Buckeyes have used it 43% of the time, increasing both their use of motion and their pass tendencies from it as well. This has primarily been a first-down or second-and-manageable look, and it has been unstoppable. Using a second tight end has had obvious benefits in the run game, and with the defense stressed by both size and motion, Will Howard has spread the ball around beautifully: From 12 personnel, he has completed three passes each to Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka and tight end Gee Scott and two to TreVeyon Henderson and wideout Carnell Tate.

Between the personnel tweak and Smith’s brilliance, Will Howard has been almost perfect in these two games. In the 11-year history of the CFP, a quarterback has produced a Total QBR of 97.7 in a game eight times — that list includes Howard against Tennessee (98.7) and Howard against Oregon (97.7). He has carved out plenty of easy pitch-and-catch opportunities near the line of scrimmage, and he has hit four of seven passes thrown more than 20 yards downfield as well.

In terms of defensive talent, Texas obviously has a lot to offer. The Longhorns indeed boast the Jim Thorpe Award winner (Jahdae Barron), a deep set of pass rushers that ranks 14th in sacks per dropback and, in Anthony Hill Jr. and David Gbenda, one of the best linebacker duos in the country. They’re second in both yards allowed per play and points allowed per drive, and they’ve started games well in the CFP, allowing 10 points in Clemson’s first eight possessions and three in Arizona State’s first seven. But they faded a bit in both games, and they’ll need constant brilliance to match Ohio State’s level.

2. Who wins the ultimate battle: Ohio State’s receiving corps vs. Texas’ secondary?

Barron has allowed an 8.6 QBR as the primary coverage guy, lowest among SEC regulars. He has picked off five passes and broken up 10 more, and 45 targets this season have produced 165 receiving yards and 82 interception return yards. Mukuba, meanwhile, has been a brilliant safety ball hawk, picking off five passes with four breakups; as the primary coverage guy, he has allowed just 71 yards in 20 targets. And even with some wobbly moments down the stretch, Malik Muhammad has a team-best 11 pass breakups.

This is most likely the best pass defense Howard and Ohio State have faced this season.

Texas has been a bit vulnerable on deeper shots, allowing a 40.4% completion rate on passes 20-plus yards downfield (106th), but it has also picked off 10.6% of those passes (16th). And on the more run-of-the-mill stuff, almost no one is better.

The same, of course, could be said of Ohio State’s receiving corps. Among the seven leading receivers in the semifinals, three are Buckeyes.

It will be fascinating to see how Texas defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski attempts to handle the devastating receiver trio of Smith, Egbuka and Tate. Egbuka is typically the slot man, but offensive coordinator Chip Kelly moves his chess pieces around quite a bit. Two-thirds of Smith’s receptions have come when he was lined up wide, one-third from the slot, and he has run short, intermediate and deep routes each between 30% and 36% of the time. Barron has lined up everywhere at one point or another, but he’s typically on the right side of the defense. Are we going to see Smith-versus-Barron most of the time with Muhammad taking on Tate? Will typical slot corner Jaylon Guilbeau line up opposite Egbuka despite iffy numbers? Will Kwiatkowski attempt to mix things up just like Kelly?

Perhaps most importantly, will Texas be able to get off the field on third downs? Despite the receiver talent, Ohio State converts just 23.3% of its third-and-longs (7 or more yards to go), 85th nationally. Texas allows just a 15.2% conversion rate on third-and-longs (sixth). Five of Howard’s nine interceptions have come on third down as well. It’s hard to push Ohio State behind schedule, but when it happens you must take full advantage.

3. Can Sark scheme up some big plays?

It’s easy to focus primarily on the matchup between Ohio State’s offense and Texas’ defense because of the sheer star power involved. But Ohio State’s defense was more successful than its offense during the regular season, and Texas might obviously need to match a pretty lofty point total.

To put it bluntly, Texas’ offense is why the Longhorns are six-point underdogs. It’s the weakest of the primary units in this game (unless you count Texas’ special teams unit). The Horns still rank a solid 19th in points per drive and 28th in success rate, and after averaging 1.7 turnovers per game before the playoff, they’ve committed only one in each CFP game. But against a brilliant Ohio State defense, the deficiencies are pretty clear.

In terms of scheming up opportunities on offense, Steve Sarkisian is still the gold standard. There was certainly a solid reminder of that at the start (Texas drove 77 yards in just two plays on its first drive) and end of the Arizona State game. Texas uses play-action on 43% of dropbacks (ninth nationally), uses motion 57% of the time (ninth) and throws 34% of its passes at or behind the line (sixth). It gives opponents a lot of things to track, and when there’s a defensive breakdown it turns out huge: Despite only solid efficiency numbers, Texas gains at least 20 yards on 9.6% of snaps, third nationally.

In general, the Longhorns are the most likely of the semifinalists to suffer a negative play and the most likely to make up for it with a third-and-long conversion.

Still, the Horns struggled mightily in the run game against ASU — Quintrevion Wisner and Jaydon Blue: 22 carries for 50 yards — and they suffered relative droughts against both Clemson (21 points in three drives, then 17 in nine) and the Sun Devils (10 points in nine drives). Their brilliant clutch play was noteworthy, and Golden has been a postseason revelation, but a drought against Ohio State might be devastating.

No matter what, the Texas offensive line must play infinitely better Friday than it did against Arizona State. Right tackle Cameron Williams missed the ASU game because of a knee injury — he is practicing this week, at least — and star left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. has been in and out of the lineup because of injury over the past few games. It’s hard to imagine the run game seeing too much success against the best defensive front in college football, and that’s going to put a lot of pressure on Quinn Ewers, Golden and the passing game (and a lot of pressure on the line to protect Ewers from Jack Sawyer, JT Tuimoloau and company).

Current line: Buckeyes -6 | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 4.8 | FPI projection: Texas by 0.2

The 10 biggest plays of the CFP thus far

I’ve been enjoying playing with ESPN Analytics’ in-game Win Probability Added (WPA) in these playoff previews, so let’s keep that up. Among the four semifinalists’ eight CFP wins to date, here are the biggest plays yet according to WPA. As one would probably expect, a majority of the plays come from the CFP’s only genuine classic to date. (And while I ranked Matthew Golden fourth above, this list suggests he possibly should have ranked even higher.)

1. Quinn Ewers’ 28-yard touchdown pass to Matthew Golden on fourth-and-13 in OT (Texas vs. Arizona State, 37.0% WPA). Texas’ win probability had risen as high as 99.9% with seven minutes remaining in regulation, but it was down to 8.8% on fourth-and-ballgame. Texas’ offensive line, banged up and shaky all game, held up against an ASU blitz and Ewers found Golden behind the safeties for a shockingly easy score.

2-3. Ewers’ two-point conversion pass to Golden in 2OT (Texas vs. Arizona State, 22.7% WPA); Ewers’ 25-yard touchdown pass to Gunnar Helm in 2OT (Texas vs. Arizona State, 19.2% WPA). After Golden’s TD, Texas got the ball first in the second overtime possession and immediately tacked on two more perfect plays against a shell-shocked ASU defense. Helm burst wide open for another score, and then Ewers’ last pass of the game was a feathery lob to Golden, the star of the game.

4-5. Ewers’ 14-yard pass to Golden, 2:48 left in Q4 (Texas vs. Arizona State, 17.0% WPA); Ewers’ 27-yard pass to Ryan Wingo, 0:37 left in Q4 (Texas vs. Arizona State, 17.0% WPA). After watching a 24-8 lead suddenly disappear, Texas twice drove into field goal range late in regulation, but Bert Auburn missed a pair of field goals to send the game to OT. I guess he was just being a good teammate — he wanted to give Ewers and Golden their moments of magic.

6. Dominic Deluca 23-yard pick six, 6:17 left in Q1 (Penn State vs. SMU, 15.6% WPA). The biggest play from a game other than Texas-ASU! Penn State’s offense was decent in the first round against SMU, but the defense handed it 14 points in the first half; that certainly didn’t hurt.

7. Liona Lefau tackles Cam Skattebo for 3 yards on third-and-4 in OT (Texas vs. Arizona State, 14.3% WPA). Before the Ewers-to-Golden heroics, Texas’ defense nearly made a huge stop in OT, but ASU converted on fourth down and scored.

8. Tony Rojas’ 59-yard pick-six, 13:28 left in Q2 (Penn State vs. SMU, 13.9% WPA). SMU’s poor Kevin Jennings is probably still having pick-six nightmares.

9. Adon Shuler forces a Trevor Etienne fumble recovered by Jaiden Ausberry, 2:43 left in Q1 (Notre Dame vs. Georgia, 12.9% WPA). Notre Dame scoring 17 points in one minute was the major driver of the Irish’s quarterfinal win, but before that surge, Georgia came up scoreless on a seven-minute first-quarter drive, buying Notre Dame’s offense some time.

10. Ewers’ 15-yard pass to Helm, 0:52 left in Q4 (Texas vs. Arizona State, 12.9% WPA). Another play from one of the failed field goal drives. When in doubt, Ewers has leaned on Golden and Helm, and it has paid off.