Half of the finale of the first 12-team College Football Playoff is set: Following a frantic final 10 minutes in Miami, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish advanced to the title game with a 27-24 win over the Penn State Nittany Lions. On Friday night, we’ll find out who the Fighting Irish, a banged-up team of destiny, will face. Will it be a Texas Longhorns team that, like Notre Dame, keeps finding a way late? Or will it be the Ohio State Buckeyes, by far the best team of the playoff’s first two rounds?

Here are the takeaways from the epic first semifinal:

Capital One Orange Bowl: Notre Dame 27, Penn State 24

What just happened?

Mitch Jeter‘s 41-yard field goal with seven seconds left, which seemed to change directions about three times, handed Notre Dame a three-point win after a classic final 10 minutes. The three factors that won the Fighting Irish the game: the middle eight, third downs and one horrid pass. Let’s walk through them.

1. The middle eight. In drives that start in the last four minutes of the second quarter and the first four minutes of the third, Notre Dame’s point differential was plus-93 through 14 games. The Fighting Irish might have been the best middle eight team in the country, and they’re in the national title game because of it. First, they scored 17 points in under 60 seconds on both sides of halftime in a 23-10 win over Georgia. Then, after a mostly dreadful first 28 minutes in Miami, they managed the clock perfectly, driving for a field goal at the halftime buzzer — despite starting quarterback Riley Leonard briefly coming out of the game — and then roaring down the field for a touchdown drive to start the second half. They scored 10 points without PSU’s offense touching the ball, and it made a massive difference in an eventual three-point win.

Notre Dame’s scoring differential in the past two games

• Middle eight minutes: plus-27

• Other 52 minutes: minus-11

2. Third downs. There were 28 third downs Thursday night: Notre Dame went 11-for-17, and Penn State went 3-for-11, meaning the Fighting Irish won 19 of 28 overall (68%). Penn State managed a couple of huge fourth-down conversions, but even if you count those as Nittany Lions wins, Notre Dame was over 60%. Among the Fighting Irish’s conversions were four Leonard rushes for 25 yards, two Mitchell Evans receptions for 37 yards and two Jaden Greathouse receptions for 16 yards. Among PSU’s failed third-down attempts were a particularly costly dropped pass in the end zone by Nicholas Singleton (on an admittedly poor pass from Drew Allar), a huge sack by Rod Heard II and a no-gain scramble by Allar. Penn State probably won a majority of the other plays in the game, but Notre Dame won the most important ones.

3. One horrid pass. Penn State’s defense came up big late, stopping Notre Dame outside of field goal range in the final minute. It seemed likely that this game would go to overtime, but PSU’s Allar, trying to make a play, double-clutched and threw an inaccurate pass across his body. Christian Gray picked it off.

Notre Dame advanced the ball 19 yards, milked the clock most of the way and won the game via Jeter’s right leg.

Key stats

• Yards: Notre Dame 383, Penn State 339

• Yards per play: Notre Dame 5.2, Penn State 5.2

• Third downs: Notre Dame 11-for-17, Penn State 3-for-11

• Fourth downs: Penn State 2-for-2, Notre Dame 0-for-0

• Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard: 15-for-23 for 223 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 3 sacks and 15 carries for 45 yards

• Penn State QB Drew Allar: 12-for-23 for 135 yards and 1 interception.

• Notre Dame RBs Jeremiyah Love, Jadarian Price and Aneyas Williams: 26 combined carries and catches, 147 yards and 1 touchdown

• Penn State RBs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen: 37 combined carries and catches, 205 yards and 3 touchdowns

• Notre Dame wide receivers: 9 catches for 130 yards and 1 TD; Penn State wide receivers: 0 catches for 0 yards

• Tackles for loss: Penn State 8, Notre Dame 2

• Sacks: Penn State 5, Notre Dame 1

• Penn State defensive linemen Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton: 11 tackles, 4 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, 1 interception, 1 pass breakup, 1 QB hurry

Impact plays

The first three quarters were a meandering affair, with Penn State slowly scoping out a 10-0 lead and Notre Dame tying it with scores on each side of halftime. But things picked up over the last 10 minutes. After Penn State tied the score at 17, Dennis-Sutton dropped into coverage to pick off a Leonard pass along the sideline — an absolutely perfect defensive playcall, maybe the best of the night — and following a pass interference penalty on Adon Shuler, running back Nicholas Singleton scored his third touchdown of the night to give Penn State the lead.

Suddenly on the ropes, Notre Dame responded when PSU corner Cam Miller slipped to the ground covering Greathouse, and the sophomore receiver broke free for a 54-yard catch-and-run. Both teams had seen their win probability top 83% in the first seven minutes of the fourth quarter, but we were back to a 50-50 game. Then came Gray’s interception and Jeter’s field goal. There were some absolutely huge swings in this one.

See you next fall, Penn State

Oof. This one’s going to hurt for quite a while. James Franklin’s Nittany Lions were the vastly superior team over the first 28 minutes or so, but the failed Allar-to-Singleton third-down pass cost them four points and turned a potential 14-0 lead into just a 10-0 advantage. They responded well to Notre Dame’s midgame 17-0 run with a 14-0 burst of their own, but they couldn’t make the huge Dennis-Sutton pick last. And when the defense came up big late, Allar suffered maybe his biggest brainfart of the season at the worst possible time.

When we first began talking about the playoff’s expansion, it was virtually unanimous that expansion would most help the Penn States of the world — the consistently excellent programs that played second fiddle to blue bloods in major conferences. In the very first year of the 12-team playoff, the Nittany Lions came within just a single play or two of a shot at the crown. Instead, missed opportunities and a crippling error will stick with them.

PSU heads into the offseason in flux. Abdul Carter, one of the best players in the country (who played an outstanding game in Miami despite a left shoulder injury that he was clearly favoring all game), will almost certainly go pro, as will at least one (or maybe both) of Singleton and Allen. The 2022 recruiting class, which featured Carter, Allar, Singleton, Allen and Dennis-Sutton, among quite a few other contributors, was a game-changer for the program, but the Nittany Lions will have to move on from some of those difference makers.

Allar has a decision to make, as well. He told the staff he would be returning, but even with an up-and-down playoff performance, he would likely be selected in the first two rounds of the 2025 draft. Does he return to try to right Thursday night’s fourth-quarter wrongs? Or does he move on and hand the reins to freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer (or a transfer)? This roster will feature lots of blue-chippers regardless, and signed the No. 12 2025 recruiting class, but it feels like it might be a pretty transitional winter and spring in State College.

What’s next

My SP+ ratings saw this as almost an exact 50-50 tossup game, and it played out exactly like that. But in the national title game, Notre Dame is likely to be either a slight underdog against Texas or a touchdown-or-so underdog against Ohio State. If the Irish are to win their first national title since 1988, they’ll have to do it how they’ve done it all year: with a depth chart that keeps getting thinner.

After all the tough injuries they’ve suffered over the course of the 2024 season – multiple offensive linemen, star cornerback Benjamin Morrison, star defensive lineman Rylie Mills – it appeared they suffered yet another one when left tackle Anthonie Knapp left the game in the first quarter. He was replaced by Tosh Baker, who had played just 60 snaps all season. We’ve wondered all season when injuries might finally catch up to Notre Dame, and it sure looked like it would finally happen on Thursday night. It didn’t.

Somehow the Irish got by despite getting dominated up front for much of the game. And against either Texas’ very good or Ohio State’s otherworldly defensive front, that might continue to be the case in the national title game. Either team will likely have the advantage in Atlanta, but somehow the Irish keep overcoming the attrition. Who’s to say they can’t do it for another 60 minutes?

Regardless, this has been an incredible run for both the Irish and head coach Marcus Freeman. In a week and a half, he’ll become the first Black head coach (and the first Asian-American, as well) in college football’s 156-year history to lead his team onto the field with a shot at the national title. He and his staff have willed this team to the precipice. We’ll see if they can lug themselves over the line.