The first ever College Football Playoff quarterfinals kicked off with the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on New Year’s Eve. Despite previous Glendale magic, the Boise State Broncos couldn’t overcome a poor start, and the Penn State Nittany Lions rolled to a 31-14 win. With three more quarterfinals on deck on Wednesday, here are the key takeaways from the Nittany Lions’ win.

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl: No. 6 Penn State 31, No. 3 Boise State 14

What just happened?

Penn State enjoyed a nearly perfect first quarter, then held on for dear life. The Nittany Lions went up 14-0 after gorgeous Drew Allar touchdown passes to Tyler Warren and Omari Evans and averaged 9.6 yards per play in the first quarter, but despite a season-low 104 rushing yards from Ashton Jeanty, Boise State clawed back into the game thanks to a career-best performance from quarterback Maddux Madsen (304 passing yards). The Broncos got to within 17-14 in the third quarter and had multiple chances to get back to within one score in the fourth quarter. But one red zone trip resulted in a devastating penalty and an interception, and another resulted in Jonah Dalmas‘ second missed field goal of the day.

BSU had outgained the Nittany Lions, 412-387, but missed opportunities doomed a spirited Broncos squad. And with 4:54 left, Nicholas Singleton broke free for a 58-yard touchdown that put the game away.

Madsen kept the Broncos in the game, but he threw three fourth-quarter interceptions as desperation sank in. Penn State saw out the win and will move on to the semis for the first time.

Key stats

• Total yards: BSU 412 (5.5 per play), PSU 387 (5.9 per play)

• Turnovers: BSU 4, PSU 1

• Scoring opportunities (first downs inside the opponent’s 40 or touchdowns from outside the 40): PSU 6, BSU 6

• Points per scoring opportunities: PSU 5.2, BSU 2.3

• Drew Allar (Penn State): First 14 pass attempts — 10-for-13 for 144 yards, two TDs and one sack; last 14 pass attempts: 3-for-12 for 27 yards and three sacks

• Maddux Madsen (Boise State): First three quarters — 17-for-21 for 223 yards and a touchdown; fourth quarter — 6-for-14 for 81 yards and three interceptions

• Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton (Penn State): 29 carries for 221 yards and a touchdown

• Ashton Jeanty (Boise State): 33 combined carries and receptions for 126 yards

• Tyler Warren (Penn State): 11 targets, six catches, 63 yards, two touchdowns

• Dani Dennis-Sutton and Amin Vanover (Penn State): 12 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, two sacks, one forced fumbles

• Ahmed Hassanein (Boise State): six tackles, three TFLs, one sack

• Jonah Dalmas (Boise State): 0-for-2 FGs

Impact plays

After Boise State’s first drive, Penn State’s win probability never sank lower than 69% thanks to the early burst. But after the Broncos cut the deficit to 17-14 on a beautiful, 53-yard throwback to tight end Matt Lauter, PSU pulled off the drive of the night, an 11-play, 75-yard drive that ate up over four minutes, featured a third-and-11 touchdown pass from Allar to Warren, his old standby. PSU’s win probability was 69.2% at the start of the drive and over 87% at the end. It never fell below 80% from there.

This was an awfully weird game for Penn State from a play-calling perspective. A run of offensive line penalties meant that the Nittany Lions spent most of the second quarter in passing downs situations, and they came out throwing after halftime. After his excellent start, Allar had as many completions (three) as sacks suffered in his last 15 dropbacks. But as has been the case for much of the season, he and Warren came through when Penn State needed it the most. BSU’s pass rush gave Allar hell, but the Nittany Lions picked up the blitz on this one, and Warren climbed the ladder.

See you next fall, Boise State

The Broncos acquitted themselves well after the dreadful start, getting their fans heavily involved in their home away from home and figuring out how to move the ball despite PSU’s success against Jeanty. The loss ends a dream season in which Jeanty finished a narrow second in the Heisman race and the Broncos lost only to top-five teams.

BSU will move on without its NFL-bound star running back, but assuming the Group of 5 maintains its autobid in the CFP in the coming years — and good lord, it better — this won’t be the Broncos’ last playoff trip. They invest better than just about anyone else in the G5, they’ve won two straight Mountain West titles (and five of the last 11), and they should be assured of solid strength-of-schedule ratings moving forward in a solid, rebuilt Pac-12. This is as sturdy a mid-major program as you’re going to find. They’ll be back.

What’s next

Penn State moves on to face the Notre Dame-Georgia winner, and it will likely give the Nittany Lions a chance to end one of the more jarring streaks in college football. Since the start of the 2022 season, the Nittany Lions are now 34-1 as a favorite and 0-6 as an underdog. In fact, they’re just 1-15 as an underdog since the start of the 2017 season, and the one win was the 2021 season-opener at Wisconsin. But what better time to end a streak like that than in your first ever semifinal appearance?

Abdul Carter‘s health will play a pretty large role in that upset bid, however. The Nittany Lions’ best defender in 2024, he left in the first half with an arm injury and didn’t return. PSU got by thanks to the work of Dani Dennis-Sutton and Amin Vanover up front — and thanks to some brilliant ball pursuit overall — but it’s a lot easier to win a huge game when you’ve got your best player on the field. Be it Georgia or Notre Dame, PSU won’t be playing against a particularly big-play attack in the semis, but both potential opponents are physical as hell. Carter’s 22.5 TFLs in 14 games were a major reason PSU got here in the first place.