College Football Playoff 2024: Week 14 bubble watch
ESPN
Week 13 changed the College Football Playoff picture drastically when six of the top 16 teams in the selection committee’s rankings lost, with four of the losses coming against unranked opponents.
The SEC took one of the bigger hits, as No. 7 Alabama, No. 9 Ole Miss, and No. 15 Texas A&M all lost road games to unranked opponents. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, the SEC now has a 43% chance to send four teams to the CFP, but you’ll only find three in the latest bracket projection.
One of the committee’s biggest questions Tuesday night will be how far it drops three-loss Alabama following the Tide’s disastrous performance in a loss to Oklahoma.
Based on how the committee ranked its third top 25 of the season and understanding what they value each week, here is a snapshot of what it might look like Tuesday — through 13 weeks of data. Check back after the reveal (8 p.m., ESPN) for an updated bubble watch using the committee’s fourth of six rankings.
For now, this is what the seeding and bracket would look like based on the committee’s projected top 25 for this week — plus a look at eight more teams who could play their way in, and how the Group of 5 race stacks up.
Jump to a topic:
Byes | First-round matchups
Last two in | First four out
Next four out | Group of 5
Projected 12-team bracket
First-round byes
Note: Seeding is based on my projected top 25 from the CFP committee.
No. 1 seed Oregon Ducks: The Ducks have clinched a spot in the Big Ten championship game and remain the top projected seed as the committee’s No. 1 team. Oregon’s undefeated record and head-to-head win against Ohio State should keep them there.
No. 2 seed Texas Longhorns: The Longhorns have won four straight games since their Oct. 19 home loss to Georgia, and would be the committee’s top SEC team as the projected winner this week. This could change if Texas loses to Texas A&M on Saturday in the regular-season finale. The Longhorns need to beat the Aggies to clinch a spot in the SEC championship game.
No. 3 seed Miami Hurricanes: The Canes are here as the committee’s highest-ranked ACC team this week, but whether they keep it depends on if they get to the conference championship game and win it. Miami can clinch a spot against SMU in the ACC title game with a win at Syracuse on Saturday. The reason Miami is here instead of SMU now is simply because the Canes are expected to be the committee’s highest-ranked ACC team Tuesday night.
No. 4 seed Boise State Broncos: For the second straight week, Mountain West Conference leader Boise State is expected to be the selection committee’s fourth-highest ranked projected conference champion — ahead of the Big 12 leader. Because the Broncos are ranked higher than the top team in the Big 12, they would earn the final first-round bye. It’s still possible the Big 12 champion moves into this spot, but it depends on how the conference championship games unfold.
The College Football Playoff expands to 12 teams this season. Learn how it will play out, from the first round through the national championship game on Jan. 20, 2025.
First-round matchups (on campus)
No. 9 Tennessee Volunteers at No. 8 Georgia Bulldogs
Winner plays: No. 1 Oregon
Explaining the seeding: The committee doesn’t try to avoid rematches or factor the possibility into its deliberations. There is also no reseeding process, so Georgia and Tennessee would play each other for the second time in about a month. On Nov. 16, Georgia won 31-17 and would have home-field advantage again.
No. 12 Arizona State Sun Devils at No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes
Winner plays: No. 4 Boise State
Explaining the seeding: The Big 12 race remains so wide open that there isn’t even a “win-and-you’re-in” scenario for the eight teams still in contention, but Arizona State is expected to be the committee’s highest-ranked Big 12 team this week. Because the Sun Devils are ranked outside of the top 12, though, they would displace No. 12-ranked Alabama to earn the No. 12 seed. Even though Ohio State is the No. 2 team in the country, it can’t be ranked any higher than fifth because the top four seeds are all reserved for conference champions. This could obviously change if Ohio State wins the Big Ten. Ohio State will clinch a spot in the conference championship game if it beats Michigan on Saturday — or if both Penn State and Indiana lose. According to ESPN Analytics, there’s a 92% chance the Buckeyes reach the Big Ten title game.
No. 11 Indiana Hoosiers at No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions
Winner plays: No. 3 Miami
Explaining the seeding: These teams didn’t face each other during the regular season, but this matchup would pit the committee’s third- and fourth-best Big Ten teams. The Nittany Lions would have home-field advantage as the higher seed after Indiana dropped to No. 11 following the loss at Ohio State. Because Alabama and Ole Miss also lost, though, the Hoosiers are still safely in the bracket.
No. 10 SMU Mustangs at No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Winner plays: No. 2 Texas
Explaining the seeding: This is the first week the ACC has two top-10 teams in the bracket, and SMU has already clinched a spot in the ACC title game. The committee had SMU ranked ahead of BYU in its third ranking, in spite of BYU’s head-to-head win, and that gap should only increase after the Cougars lost again. Notre Dame can’t earn a first-round bye because as an independent, it can’t win a conference title. The first-round home game, though, is its best-case scenario.
Last two in
No. 11 Indiana Hoosiers (10-1)
Why they should be worried: If two ACC teams are in, and the Big 12 champion climbs back into the top 12 on Selection Day with Boise State, Indiana could get bumped down to the No. 12 seed, which could mean a rematch with Ohio State — or having to play Oregon if the Ducks finish No. 2 in the committee’s final ranking.
ESPN Analytics says: IU is still mathematically in contention to play for the Big Ten title, but IU needs to beat Purdue and get help in the form of losses by Ohio State and Penn State, which are both heavily favored Saturday. There’s only a 0.5% chance the Hoosiers make the short drive to Indianapolis for the Big Ten title game.
No. 12 Arizona State Sun Devils (9-2)
Why they should be worried: This spot will be fleeting if ASU doesn’t win the Big 12, and there’s no guarantee the Sun Devils will even make it to the conference championship game.
ESPN Analytics says: Arizona State, which was picked by the media to finish last in the preseason poll, has a 71% chance to make it to the Big 12 title game, the highest of any teams still in contention.
First four out
Alabama Crimson Tide (8-3)
Best win: Sept. 28 vs. Georgia, 41-3
What’s left: The Tide has no margin for error against rival Auburn on Saturday. With three wins against CFP top 25 teams (Georgia, South Carolina and Missouri), the Tide has a case for the committee’s top three-loss team, but if they are ranked No. 12 — and the fifth-highest ranked conference champion is ranked outside of the top 12 — the Tide will get bumped out of the bracket on Selection Day.
Texas A&M Aggies (8-3)
Best win: Oct. 5 vs. Missouri, 41-10
What’s left: The Aggies will face rival Texas in the regular-season finale, and will play Georgia in the SEC title game if they win. According to ESPN Analytics, there’s a 77% chance the Longhorns will beat the Aggies in their first meeting since 2011. If Texas A&M makes the SEC championship game and loses, it’s unlikely the committee will reward a four-loss runner-up, even in the SEC. There’s not enough quality wins on the Aggies’ résumé to compensate for it, and head-to-head losses to Notre Dame and South Carolina would be an issue.
BYU Cougars (9-2)
Best win: Sept. 21 vs. Kansas State, 38-9
What’s left: BYU has to beat Houston on Saturday and then hope it has earned a spot in the Big 12 title game. According to ESPN Analytics, BYU has a 53% chance to make it. If BYU wins the Big 12, it’s in, but its chances of earning a first-round bye would be questionable and depend on other results.
Clemson Tigers (9-2)
Best win: Nov. 16 at Pitt, 24-20
What’s left: The Tigers need Miami to lose to Syracuse to get a spot in the ACC championship game against SMU. According to ESPN Analytics, there’s an 81% chance that Miami will win and face SMU in the ACC title game. Clemson will end its regular season against rival South Carolina, and a win against the Gamecocks would boost the Tigers’ playoff résumé if they got into the ACC title game and were fighting for an at-large spot as the league’s runner-up. If Clemson loses to South Carolina, though, it would be eliminated if it also loses in/doesn’t make the ACC title game.
Next four out
Iowa State Cyclones (9-2)
Best win: Sept. 7 at Iowa, 20-19
What’s left: The Cyclones need to beat Kansas State on Saturday and hope it’s enough to land in the Big 12 title game. The only reason Iowa State is listed here is because it still has more than a 50% chance to reach the conference championship (52%). When your best win is by one point against an unranked 7-4 Iowa team, winning the Big 12 is the only way in.
Ole Miss Rebels (8-3)
Best win: Nov. 9 vs. Georgia
What’s left: The Rebels have to avoid what would be a stunning and disastrous upset to rival Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl on Friday and then hope for some more chaos above them to get back in the mix. The best-case scenario for Ole Miss would be to finish 9-3 with a win against eventual SEC champion Georgia. That would give the committee something to think about and help compensate for losses to Kentucky and Florida.
South Carolina Gamecocks (8-3)
Best win: Nov. 2 vs. Texas A&M, 44-20
What’s left: A win at Clemson on Saturday would give the Gamecocks another win against a CFP top 25 opponent to go along with Texas A&M and Missouri. South Carolina needs more chaos above it to generate more serious consideration, but the committee will recognize that losses to LSU and Alabama were by a combined five points. A loss to Clemson, though, would be an eliminator. The head-to-head loss to Ole Miss could be a factor, too.
Colorado Buffaloes (8-3)
Best win: Nov. 9 at Texas Tech, 41-27
What’s left: The only reason three-loss Colorado is here is because of the remote chance (19%) it can still play for the Big 12 title. The Buffs have to beat Oklahoma State on Friday night and hope everything else falls into place around them.
Group of 5 Power Rankings
1. Boise State Broncos (10-1), Mountain West
Best win: Oct. 25 at UNLV, 29-24
Why they’re here: The selection committee had Boise State ranked high enough to earn a first-round bye in its third ranking and could do the same again this week. The Broncos clinched the regular-season Mountain West Conference title and will host the league championship game. They will face either UNLV or Colorado State.
Chance to win conference: 69.7%
2. Tulane Green Wave (9-2), American Athletic
Best win: Nov. 16 at Navy, 35-0
Why they’re here: The Green Wave will face Army in the American Athletic Conference championship game, and are clinging to hope that Boise State loses and the winner of the MWC is ranked behind the AAC champs. Tulane’s only two losses were to K-State, which can technically still win the Big 12, and Oklahoma, which just beat Alabama. If the Green Wave can avoid a Thanksgiving Day upset to Memphis and win the AAC, it will have a chance.
Chance to win conference: 80.7%
3. UNLV Rebels (9-2), Mountain West
Best win: Sept. 13 at Kansas, 23-20
Why they’re here: UNLV was able to do something Colorado and BYU were not — beat Kansas. UNLV and Colorado State both enter the final week of the regular season with 5-1 league records but don’t play each other. Colorado State hosts Utah State on Friday (3:30 p.m. ET) and UNLV hosts Nevada on Saturday (8 p.m. ET). As long as UNLV remains in the committee’s top 25, the Rebels only need to beat Nevada to clinch a spot in the conference title game (regardless of Colorado State’s result). If UNLV wins the Mountain West, it would be in a strong debate with the AAC champ for the fifth and final bid as a conference champ.
Chance to win conference: 29.7%
4. Army Black Knights (9-1), American Athletic
Best win: Oct. 19 vs. East Carolina, 45-28
Why they’re here: The Black Knights are a long shot after their loss to Notre Dame. They need to beat Tulane in the AAC title game — and hope that Boise State loses — to earn consideration from the committee. According to ESPN Analytics, Tulane has an 80% chance to beat Army in the championship game.
Chance to win conference: 19.3%
5. Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (9-2), Sun Belt
Best win: Sept. 28 at Wake Forest, 41-38
Why they’re here: With the exception of the Mountain West and American teams listed above, Louisiana from the Sun Belt is the only remaining Group of 5 school with two or fewer overall losses that is probably headed to its conference championship game. Louisiana will win its division with a win at Louisiana Monroe on Saturday or a South Alabama loss. ESPN Analytics gives Louisiana a 92% chance to win its division.
Chance to win conference: 56.6%