The Championship Week slate gives us only nine FBS games, but much remains up in the air as it pertains to the 12-team College Football Playoff. Nine playoff bids are about set, which means three aren’t. About nine teams still have hopes of a top-four seed and a first-round bye. Five teams could play their way into the field with a win.

From Friday night’s Group of 5 showcase (headlined by Boise State-UNLV) through Saturday night’s potential bid-stealing ACC championship game, let’s walk through the stakes, storylines and matchups that will define the most consequential Championship Week college football has seen.

(All times are Eastern.)

Jump to a section:
Oregon-Texas | Texas-Georgia
SMU-Clemson | Iowa State-Arizona State
Boise State-UNLV | G5 title games
Small-school showcase

Big Ten: A 77% chance the winner gets the 1-seed

No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 3 Penn State (Saturday, 8 p.m., CBS)

Eight years ago, James Franklin’s Penn State team sneaked into the Big Ten championship game thanks to Ohio State’s classic overtime win over Michigan. As a slight underdog against Wisconsin, the Nittany Lions suffered a number of early glitches and fell behind 28-7 but scored TDs on four straight possessions and charged back to win 38-31. They’ve waited nearly a decade for another opportunity.

On Saturday, thanks again to the Michigan-Ohio State result — this time, a stunning Michigan upset — Penn State finally returns to Indianapolis. This time it will face a debutant: In its first year in the Big Ten, Oregon will play in its first Big Ten title game. (With up to three more neutral-site games remaining this season, I’m guessing we won’t see a ton of Oregon fans making the trip from the Pacific Northwest to Indy. It’s a much easier trip for Penn State fans, however.)

Oregon and Penn State appear to be two of the three teams that could come away with the CFP’s No. 1 seed. Oregon will obviously land that spot with a win, but if the Nittany Lions spring an upset, the top spot will likely either go to Texas (if the Longhorns beat Georgia) or PSU (if Georgia beats UT for a second time).

If Oregon makes a solid playoff run, Dillon Gabriel could end up being college football’s career passing yardage leader. With 18,140 career yards, Gabriel is just 1,077 behind Case Keenum. That’s about four games’ worth of yards, and Oregon might have four games left. First, however, Gabriel will have to move the ball on a very good Penn State defense. And his level of success will tell us a lot about Oregon’s chances of said playoff run: Each of the top nine teams in the CFP rankings grades out quite well in terms of run and pass defense, and PSU’s defense is as good as any.

Oregon has scored at least 31 points 10 times, but Penn State has allowed more than 20 points just three times. The Nittany Lions don’t have an obvious weaknesses. The Ducks don’t generate as many big plays as other elite offenses, but they make up for it with ridiculous run efficiency from Jordan James, plus Gabriel’s historic passing accuracy. Without big plays, though, good red zone execution becomes vital. Oregon ranks a solid 24th in red zone touchdown rate (71.4%), but Penn State is an elite second on defense (40.0%). If Oregon settles for field goals, Penn State is positioned for an upset.

The next few weeks are why Andy Kotelnicki was hired as Penn State’s offensive coordinator. After bottoming out at 77th in offensive SP+ in 2021, PSU rebounded decently under Mike Yurcich in 2022 and 2023, but the Nittany Lions went 0-4 against Ohio State and Michigan (and 21-1 against everyone else), scoring more than 17 points just once.

Despite Michigan’s absence on the 2024 schedule, this season has taken on a similar bent with Kotelnicki calling plays. Against everyone but Ohio State, PSU is unbeaten, having averaged 35.2 points per game and 6.9 yards per play, but against the Buckeyes they averaged 5.1 per play and fell 20-13. All will be forgiven if it moves the ball from this point forward.

Drew Allar is a solid 11th in Total QBR, running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen have combined for 1,827 yards from scrimmage and tight end Tyler Warren leads the team with 81 catches for 978 yards and 6 TDs. (He’s also rushed for 189 yards and thrown for 35. Unique guy.) With top wideout and No. 2 receiver Harrison Wallace III questionable with injury, Warren might have to carry even more weight in the passing game.

The Penn State O-line took a hit when right tackle Anthony Donkoh was lost to injury. Despite scoring 44 points against Maryland last week, the Nittany Lions averaged just 5.2 yards per play, their second-worst average of the season. That’s a concern against an active Oregon front. The Ducks are merely decent at defending the run, but they dominate on passing downs because of a fierce pass rush that ranks sixth in sack rate. Rush end Matayo Uiagalelei (13 TFLs, 10.5 sacks) has become the star his recruiting rankings suggested he would be, and the secondary has thrived too: The Ducks are sixth in yards allowed per dropback and fifth in passing success rate allowed. Along with Oregon field goals, the main factor in this game might be Penn State’s ability to stay on schedule. It could pull that off, but if it’s second- or third-and-long, Oregon could feast.

Current line: Ducks -3.5 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 3.2 | FPI projection: PSU by 0.4

SEC: Another defensive battle ahead?

No. 2 Texas vs. No. 5 Georgia (Saturday, 4 p.m., ABC)

Texas won one conference title in its past 14 seasons in the Big 12. Now the Longhorns have a chance to start 1-for-1 in the SEC. After more than a decade of underachievement, Steve Sarkisian has this program playing like it should again, and Saturday Texas has a chance to avenge its only loss of 2024 against a Georgia team that has backed into this game a bit.

Last time these teams played, in Austin in Week 8, Georgia won a battle of attrition. The Dawgs’ defensive front dominated Texas’ offensive line — Quinn Ewers took five sacks in 48 pass attempts, and he struggled so much that Sarkisian benched him for backup Arch Manning late in the first half. Manning, however, went 3-for-6 for 19 yards and took two sacks. Ewers was back in for the second half, and things only got marginally better. Georgia’s defense, only reasonably disruptive overall this season, blew up everything Texas attempted.

Georgia’s offense didn’t do much either, producing only two drives of more than 35 yards (and scoring on only one of them), but the Bulldogs scored 30 points thanks to constant short fields: They had touchdown drives of 13 and 34 yards and field goal drives of 4, 13 and 25. Running back Trevor Etienne had a decent day — he’s questionable with injury Saturday — but 12 of Carson Beck‘s 23 completions gained 5 or fewer yards. The teams were a combined 8-for-32 on third downs, 3-for-18 on third-and-7 or more.

This game set off a solid run of defensive form for Georgia, but that ended a couple of weeks ago. The Bulldogs allowed 21 points to UMass and 27 in regulation to Georgia Tech, with those two opponents averaging 6.5 yards per play and 243 rushing yards. That has coincided with a late-season surge from Texas sophomore Quintrevion Wisner, who has rushed for 344 yards (5.8 per carry) over the past two weeks. Wisner is listed at 200 pounds but runs like he’s 225, and he did a lot of his damage against Texas A&M last week without Longhorns star left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr., who left injured and is questionable for Saturday. If Texas can match Georgia’s physicality this time, the advantage could shift dramatically.

At some point, though, Ewers will have to make some plays. He hasn’t done much of that lately. Ewers suffered an oblique injury in nonconference play and is now dealing with an ankle issue. He’s 12th out of 16 quarterbacks in Total QBR in SEC play, and only a pair of awful red zone mistakes — a pick-six and a fumble — kept Texas A&M in the game last week in College Station.

Ewers and Beck are stylistically similar quarterbacks. Neither leaves the pocket much, both get the ball out of their hands well before pressure arrives, both throw a high percentage of passes behind the line of scrimmage and both throw a few too many picks. But over the past three weeks, Beck ranks first in Total QBR and Ewers ranks 44th. After a run of 12 interceptions in six games, Beck has begun to spread the ball around beautifully — eight guys have caught between seven and 11 of his passes in this three-game span — and has produced excellent efficiency and more big plays with fewer sacks and, most importantly, no picks.

Texas’ defense is the best Beck has faced, however, and it has only improved since these teams’ last meeting. The Longhorns rarely blitz or overcommit against the run, simply allowing opponents to commit to what they’re doing, then swallowing it up. They’re 12th in yards allowed per rush (not including sacks) and they’re ridiculous against the pass: first in yards allowed per dropback, first in interception rate, second in passing success rate allowed and, despite the lack of blitzing, sixth in sack rate. Anthony Hill Jr. might be the best linebacker in the country, and Jahdae Barron might be the best corner.

Can the Longhorns better match Georgia’s physicality this time? Can Ewers make enough positive plays? Or is this where Georgia, so wobbly in the past two weeks, assumes its postseason form and prepares for a national title run?

Current line: Texas -2.5 | SP+ projection: Texas by 1.5 | FPI projection: Texas by 4.1

ACC: SMU probably can’t afford a loss

No. 8 SMU vs. No. 17 Clemson (Saturday, 8 p.m., ABC)

First things first: This week’s CFP rankings are fine. We’ve reached the Performative Anger portion of the season, and hey, I get it. I’m still annoyed by the CFP committee’s selection of Alabama over Florida State last year, and I think it left a permanent stain on the entire process. But I can’t even pretend to be mad at this week’s rankings. Miami, Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina all had chances to solidify their playoff status, and they all blew it in some way, but one of them was still going to land a playoff-worthy ranking this week. It was Bama, the team with the best computer ratings and poll rankings (and competitive résumé rankings). So be it.

The next question: What happens if No. 8 SMU loses to Clemson? Will the Mustangs fall behind Bama too?

Some good news for SMU: Over the past 10 years, only 16 of the 45 ranked teams that lost a power conference title game fell by more than two spots. The committee doesn’t tend to punish teams much for losing title games.

Some bad news: The committee does punish favorites who lose. Of these 45 teams, 10 lost as favorites, and those teams fell by an average of 4.1 spots. SMU is a 2.5-point favorite Saturday night.

More bad news: Two weeks ago, when Alabama had two losses and SMU had one, Bama ranked six spots ahead of SMU in the CFP. Obviously Bama’s third loss (24-3 to Oklahoma) was worse than SMU’s hypothetical second loss would be, (unless Clemson wins in a massive blowout), but the odds are solid that, as unfair as it may be that the Mustangs had to play a 13th game to Bama’s 12 — and as foreboding as it might feel to the future of conference title games if it were to happen — Bama gets in over a two-loss SMU.

More good news, though: SMU is the favorite! Clemson is 0-3 against SP+ top-20 teams (SMU is 12th), and only one of the games was particularly close. Just beat the Tigers, Mustangs, and you’re in.

After a sparkling run through much of September and October, Clemson’s offense slid in November. Cade Klubnik went from averaging 8.1 yards per dropback in his first seven games to just 5.9 in the past five (5.3 if you take out a game against The Citadel). The Tigers remain reasonably efficient, but explosiveness has again become a massive issue.

Against dismal SMU defenses of yore, this wouldn’t be much of a problem. But beginning with Scott Symons’ second year as defensive coordinator in 2023, the Mustangs have ditched yore and embraced a dominant present. They jumped from 115th to 39th in defensive SP+ last year, and they’re 21st in 2024. They’ve held six opponents under 20 points. The closest thing they have to a weakness is giving up some explosive pass plays, but as a rule Clemson doesn’t do “explosive pass plays.”

When SMU’s offense has the ball, two all-or-nothing units could produce any number of outcomes. Clemson ranks a strong 20th in defensive SP+, but the Tigers occasionally suffer big-play glitches in the pursuit of efficiency.

The Tigers are 117th in yards allowed per successful play — when they give up a good play it’s a great one.

Since Week 4, when Kevin Jennings took over for a struggling Preston Stone as SMU’s starting QB, the Mustangs’ offense has produced great and terrible moments. They’re seventh in yards per successful play but 45th in success rate. They’ve gained 20-plus yards 8.2% of the time (20th) but turned the ball over 2.3% (80th). They’re second in yards per dropback (9.1) but 53rd in interception rate (2.4%). Clemson’s aggression can backfire, but the Tigers are 12th in turnovers forced and 21st in INT rate. Unless Clemson suddenly rips off a lot of big plays on offense, this game will likely come down to how many mistakes SMU’s offense makes and how costly they are. We probably know how costly an SMU loss would be.

Current line: SMU -2.5 | SP+ projection: SMU by 5.4 | FPI projection: SMU by 1.3

Big 12: Win and in at Jerry World

No. 15 Arizona State vs. No. 16 Iowa State (Saturday, noon, ABC)

I saw Iowa State coming. I cannot say the same about Arizona State. The Sun Devils fielded what was, per SP+, their worst team since 1947 last year, but as with Deion Sanders and Colorado, Kenny Dillingham’s second huge batch of transfers was transformative. In addition to key 2023 transfers like running back Cam Skattebo and receiver Jordyn Tyson, Dillingham found depth and instant hits in quarterback Sam Leavitt (Michigan State) and what would become 10 of ASU’s 17 leading tacklers this year.

Despite a merely decent start — and a 24-14 stumble at Cincinnati with Leavitt injured — ASU has improved from 101st to 38th in offensive SP+ and from 89th to 29th in defensive SP+. With Leavitt back for the home stretch, the Sun Devils have surged, overachieving against SP+ projections by 17.9 points per game during a five-game winning streak. If they overachieve again Saturday, they’ll have earned as many outright conference titles in one year in the Big 12 as they did in their past 37 years in the Pac-12. They’ll also be in the College Football Playoff.

It was easier to predict ISU to contend in the Big 12 this year, but it still took a leap of faith. For starters, “Iowa State” and “contend” have not gone together well since the days when mutton was common on training tables and Fenway Park was sparkly and new. (Translation: It’s been 112 years since their last conference title.) But beyond that, the Cyclones trended in the wrong direction after coming within six points of the Big 12 title in 2020. They went just 11-14 in 2021 and 2022, constantly faltering in close games, but rebounded to 7-6 in 2023 and led the nation in returning production this season. That experience has evidently made them better in key situations: They’re 4-1 in one-score finishes, and now they’re back in the Big 12 championship game.

Arizona State’s offense is a dangerous set of if-then statements. If you can’t stop Skattebo, then the Sun Devils will just keep feeding him. (They’re eighth in rushing success rate, and Skattebo has topped 20 carries in eight of his 11 games.) If you put too many defenders in the box to account for the run, then Leavitt will hit you with a high-efficiency quick-passing game. (They throw at or behind the line on 31% of their passes, well over the national average of 21%.) And if your safeties get sucked up too close to the line of scrimmage, ASU will hit you deep. (It gains 20-plus yards on 21.4% of its completions, 20th in FBS.) Granted, Jordyn Tyson has been a big part of this decision tree — he has 75 receptions, and no other ASU wideout has more than 17 — and he’s out for the season with injury. But Melquan Stovall and tight end Chamon Metayer have both been good on the short passes, and Xavier Guillory does have three long touchdowns.

Iowa State’s secondary has been wonderfully effective this year: The Cyclones rank second in completion rate allowed (52.0%) and 22nd in yards allowed per dropback (5.4) despite an unaggressive pass rush. Corners Myles Purchase and Jontez Williams have combined for five interceptions and 14 breakups, and havoc-heavy safety Malik Verdon, injured a couple of weeks ago, should be good to go. But ISU has been inefficient against the run, and that could cause some obvious problems against the Skattebo bulldozer.

ISU’s offense is odd. The Cyclones rank 97th in success rate and gain zero or fewer yards 32.1% of the time (71st). They run the ball constantly on early downs, and it doesn’t really go anywhere, but they also go three-and-out just 18.9% of the time (ninth) because quarterback Rocco Becht is great on third down and receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel are excellent downfield targets. ASU theoretically matches up pretty well: The Sun Devils are solid enough against the run to force Becht to throw, and they rank 10th in yards allowed per successful dropback. Corners Javan Robinson, Keith Abney and Laterrence Welch could win some battles against Higgins and Noel.

Current line: ASU -2 | SP+ projection: ISU by 3.7 | FPI projection: ISU by 1.8

Mountain West: Win and in in Boise

No. 20 UNLV at No. 10 Boise State (Friday, 8 p.m., Fox)

With Tulane’s loss to Memphis last week, we’ve basically ended up with a play-in game for the Group of 5’s guaranteed CFP slot. Boise State and UNLV are the highest-ranked teams in the G5 universe, and the winner will land in the playoff.

It’s tradition at this point: When we tinker with the postseason format, Boise State swoops in to take advantage. When the BCS added an extra game in 2006 — the BCS Championship — and guaranteed a major bowl slot for a mid-major team, BSU went unbeaten, then won one of the best games of the 21st century, 43-42 over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. When the four-team College Football Playoff began in 2014, the Broncos secured the Group of 5’s New Year’s Six bowl bid and won another Fiesta Bowl, this time over Arizona. Now, with the playoff expanded to 12, Spencer Danielson’s squad is poised to not only qualify for the CFP but also score a top-four seed and first-round bye.

UNLV could ruin this storyline, however. The Rebels fought well against BSU in October, taking an early lead but blowing a couple of red zone chances, allowing a touchdown with six seconds left in the first half (following an interception) and eventually falling 29-24. They sold out to stop Boise star Ashton Jeanty — the soon-to-be Heisman finalist averaged just 3.9 yards over 33 carries — and it nearly worked.

UNLV provided the Jeanty blueprint that other teams tried to follow down the stretch. In their past four games, the Broncos’ offense has underachieved against SP+ projections by an average of 11.0 points per game, and quarterback Maddux Madsen has completed just 57% of his passes and ranks 60th in Total QBR in this span. Jeanty remains amazing, having rushed for 2,288 yards and 28 touchdowns, but if Madsen doesn’t improve, BSU will either miss the CFP or bow out quickly in it.

UNLV’s Hajj-Malik Williams has done well since taking over for Matthew Sluka as starting quarterback, combining a 50% passing success rate with a constant run threat. Star receiver Ricky White III has certainly enjoyed having Williams in the lineup — after catching just 10 balls for 126 yards through three games, he’s caught 65 for 994 since. But BSU’s brilliant pass rush, led by Ahmed Hassanein and Jayden Virgin-Morgan, sacked Williams six times in October. Even if the Rebels’ defense is playing well again, they can only afford so many negative plays on offense.

Current line: BSU -4 | SP+ projection: BSU by 4.6 | FPI projection: BSU by 7.0

Close title games throughout the Group of 5?

There are almost certainly no CFP stakes with the other four Group of 5 games, but that’s fine: All four (listed chronologically) have spreads of 5 or fewer points and bring interesting storylines to the table.

CUSA: Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State (Friday, 7 p.m., CBSSN)

Ahh, that modern invention: the immediate rematch. WKU’s last-second, 19-17 win over Jax State last week earned the Hilltoppers the right to face the Gamecocks again. The game was as even as could be — JSU averaged 5.5 yards per play to WKU’s 5.1, but WKU created and failed to take advantage of more red zone opportunities (three trips, zero touchdowns). Four Lucas Carneiro field goals eventually got the job done.

WKU’s greatest success in last week’s game might be the hardest to duplicate: JSU went 2-for-13 on third downs, including just 1-for-6 with 6 or fewer yards to go. The Gamecocks are usually better than that on third downs, and the WKU defense is usually far worse (111th in third-down conversion rate). Move the chains a hair better this time, and Jax State has the edge, though JSU quarterback Tyler Huff‘s status — he suffered an ankle injury last week and will be a game-time decision — could impact that.

Current line: Jax State -5 (up from -3.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Jax State by 0.2 | FPI projection: Jax State by 5.2

AAC: Tulane at No. 24 Army (Friday, 8 p.m., ABC)

Tulane and Army each bowed out of the CFP race in recent weeks, but they’ve still been two of the G5’s most interesting stories. Army’s offense ranks second in success rate and third in points per drive, with quarterback Bryson Daily ranking 13th in Total QBR with his 1,354 rushing and 860 passing yards. Tulane’s Darian Mensah, meanwhile, ranks 18th, having developed beautifully throughout his redshirt freshman season.

Jon Sumrall’s track record might give Tulane the edge. In three years as a head coach at Troy (2022-23) and Tulane (2024), Sumrall teams have faced service academy teams three times and have allowed just 3.9 yards per play and 9 total points. Army’s attack is easily the best of the option batch Sumrall has faced, but it’s hard to predict a huge point total. The Black Knights’ defense might have to come up big here.

Current line: Tulane -5 (up from -4) | SP+ projection: Army by 1.8 | FPI projection: Tulane by 6.2

MAC: Miami (Ohio) vs. Ohio (Saturday, noon, ESPN)

Both of these teams disappointed over the first half of the season: Miami started 1-4 and missed a number of opportunities for marquee power conference wins, and Ohio, after suffering massive transfer turnover, fell to 4-3 following a 30-20 loss to Miami in Week 8. But Miami has won seven in a row and Ohio has captured five, exceeding SP+ projections by an average of 17.5 points per game in the process.

Both offenses have had their moments — Ohio quarterback Parker Navarro since Week 9: 30th in Total QBR — but the defenses are the stars: Miami is 10th in points allowed per drive, Ohio 18th. Nothing will come easy at Ford Field.

Current line: Miami -1.5 (down from -2.5) | SP+ projection: Miami by 2.1 | FPI projection: Miami by 1.9

Sun Belt: Marshall at Louisiana (Saturday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN)

After back-to-back blowout losses at Virginia Tech and Ohio State, Marshall was 1-2 and 99th in SP+. Since then, the Thundering Herd are just 1 point from a nine-game winning streak, with the offense and defense stepping up at times. Marshall’s run game, led by RB A.J. Turner, is efficient — though its offensive line is banged up at the moment — and the pass defense is among the best in the G5. And it has made this run despite head coach Charles Huff’s contract is expiring and he doesn’t appear to have an offer to renew it.

For Louisiana, having two veteran quarterbacks is better than having one. Ben Wooldridge broke his collarbone in a tight Week 12 loss to South Alabama, but Chandler Fields, a 2019 UL signee, threw for 511 yards and four touchdowns in wins over Troy and Louisiana-Monroe. The Cajuns’ defense might be the most bend-don’t-break unit in America, but the offense can win a track meet.

Current line: Cajuns -6 (up from -4) | SP+ projection: Cajuns by 10.9 | FPI projection: Cajuns by 3.7

Smaller-school showcase

Let’s once again save a shoutout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. The playoffs are rolling along, and you can follow all the FCS, Division II and Division III action on ESPN+.

FCS round of 16: Lehigh at No. 8 Idaho (8 p.m., ESPN+). We’re still in the preliminary stages of the FCS playoffs. The top seeds aren’t facing major challenges yet, but this one could be an absolute delight.

With a young team, a stout defense and two long touchdowns in the last 11 minutes, Lehigh enjoyed its first playoff win since 2011 last week, outlasting Richmond 20-16 to earn a bucket-list game of sorts: a trip to the Kibbie Dome. Idaho has won five straight, scoring at least 31 points each time, and despite a run of quarterback injuries they’ve lost only to playoff teams: Oregon, Montana State and UC Davis. QB Jack Layne has looked spectacular since returning to action, but ball-hawking Lehigh safety Nick Peltekian (four INTs) and end Matt Spatny (11.5 sacks), could cause serious issues if the Vandals’ run game isn’t clicking.

SP+ projection: Idaho by 5.5.

Division II quarterfinals: No. 4 Harding at No. 2 Ferris State (1 p.m., ESPN+). In soccer, they call it the Group of Death: a group at a major tournament that features a particularly awesome batch of teams. In Division II, I guess you could say they have the Quarter of Death. Harding (first in SP+) has already beaten Grand Valley State (sixth) and now must defeat Ferris State (third) to move on to the semifinals.

These two teams are ridiculously good. Harding’s gorgeous option attack rolled up 475 rushing yards (and 0-for-1 passing) on GVSU in the snow last week, but Ferris State said, “Oh yeah? Watch this!” and rushed for 485 while passing for 203 in a 78-17 destruction of Central Oklahoma. The winner of this one becomes the de facto title favorite (though SP+ likes Valdosta State quite a bit too).

SP+ projection: Ferris by 1.6.

Division III round of 16: No. 14 Hope College at No. 1 North Central (1 p.m., ESPN+). North Central is Division III’s current gold standard. The Cardinals have reached four straight Division III finals, with two titles, and have been an easy No. 1 in SP+ all season. But over the second half of the season an upstart has risen.

Peter Sturrsma’s Hope Flying Dutchmen, of Holland, Michigan, had never won a playoff game until last Saturday. They were 12th in SP+ in early October but have charged to second. They average 306 rushing and 185 passing yards, and their defense averages nine TFLs and has picked off 16 passes. On paper, they are damn near NCC’s equal. Will they get a reality check against the kings of Division III? Or will this incredible run include an incredible early-round upset?

SP+ projection: North Central by 3.2.

NAIA quarterfinals: No. 4 Montana Western at No. 6 Morningside (2 p.m., local streaming). Morningside has reestablished its cruising altitude. The Mustangs, NAIA national champions in 2018, 2019 and 2021, went one-and-done in the playoffs last year and began 2024 with a loss. But they’ve won 11 straight and have taken their past three games by an average of 54-3. They’re second in SP+; Montana Western is fourth. The Bulldogs won the rugged Frontier Conference and have scored at least 41 points in four of their past six games. No one in the Frontier has a defense like Morningside’s, though.

SP+ projection: Morningside by 1.5.