The 2024-25 men’s college basketball season is in full swing, so there’s no better time to launch ESPN’s official Bubble Watch 2025 ahead of the NCAA tournament than right now.

We’re looking at about 40 days until the power conference tournaments tip off — even sooner for the mid-majors — and only a little longer than that before Selection Sunday on March 16.

As usual for Bubble Watch, we’ll break teams down by conference into categories based on their projected NCAA tournament status. This year, however, we’ll be largely basing the categories on ESPN Analytics’ BPI forecast, which gives each team a probability to make the tourney after simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times.

Teams with Lock status have at least a 95% chance to make the tournament, according to the BPI forecast. (Yes, this means that 5% of the time, a team marked as a lock will miss the tourney. We set the threshold there as a nod to the traditional standard for significance testing.)

A team marked Should Be In has a BPI probability from 70% to 94%. These are teams that, most likely, will get into the field of 68, though their fates are not completely assured yet.

And a team with the Work To Do tag has either 25% to 69% tourney odds per BPI or is featured in ESPN’s most recent Bracketology column by Joe Lunardi — who, let’s be honest, probably knows better than the algorithm. We’ll mark these Bracketology teams with an asterisk. (This is our fail-safe for catching teams that BPI might be too low on.) The percentages will be more accurate the closer we get to Selection Sunday, as teams’ bodies of work become more solidified.

Bubble Watch will be updated continuously from now until March 16. Here is our current projection of the bubble:

Locks: 18 teams
The Bubble: 47 total teams
Should be in: 18 teams
Work to do: 29 teams

So, let’s go conference by conference — in order of which conferences project to get the most NCAA bids. The teams are listed in order within each category based on their chances to get a tourney bid.

Notes: All times are Eastern Time. SOR = strength of record. SOS = strength of schedule. NET rankings = The NCAA’s official evaluation tool, which is the recommended rating for the committee to look at. SRS = Simple Rating System.

Jump to a conference:
SEC | Big Ten
Big 12 | ACC | Big East
High Mid-Majors | Low Mid-Majors

SEC

Locks (95% tourney chance):

Auburn Tigers (100%), Tennessee Volunteers (100%), Alabama Crimson Tide (100%), Florida Gators (97%), Texas A&M Aggies (96%)


Should be in (70% to 94%)

Kentucky Wildcats(94%)

The idea Kentucky might be anywhere close to the bubble is sort of unthinkable, based on how well it has played this season. And to be clear, the ESPN forecast still gives the Wildcats a 94% chance to make the NCAA field, including a 93% chance conditional on not winning the SEC tournament.

Though their recent 10-point home loss to Arkansas — their third loss in four games — dropped them below the 95% threshold, they still have the 18th-toughest remaining SOS, and they are (surprisingly) only a game above .500 against Top 100 opponents. (Updated Feb. 3, 7:57 a.m.)
Next game:Tuesday at Ole Miss, 7 p.m. (ESPN)

Texas Longhorns(92%)

After a string of SEC losses left them listed in only 36% of BracketMatrix entries two weeks ago, the Longhorns are in better shape at the moment. They still have a 3-7 record against Top 50 BPI teams and are 39th in SOR, but they also rank 25th in NET and are 4-0 against teams ranked Nos. 51-100. They’re tracking to at least make the Field of 68. (Updated Feb. 3 at 1:36 p.m.)
Next game:Wednesday vs. Arkansas, 9 p.m. (ESPN2)

Mississippi State Bulldogs(83%)

The Bulldogs have been slipping up recently, with losses in five of their past seven games, and face the nation’s fourth-toughest remaining schedule. Still, they built a nice résumé cushion for themselves with a 10-6 record vs. Top 100 opponents and a No. 28 ranking in SOR. (Updated Feb. 3, 2:06 p.m.)
Next game:Saturday at Georgia, 6 p.m. (SEC Network)

Ole Miss Rebels(80%)

The ESPN forecast reports Ole Miss has a bit more work to do than other public projection models (where the Rebels average a 98% chance to make the tourney), perhaps because they rank 43rd in BPI SOS and face the fifth-toughest future SOS. But at No. 19 in SOR and No. 23 in NET, with an above-.500 mark in the mighty SEC, it’s hard to believe Mississippi wouldn’t warrant a tourney bid. (Updated Feb. 3 at 2:14 p.m.)
Next game:Tuesday vs. Kentucky, 7 p.m. (ESPN)


Work to do (25% to 69%)

Missouri Tigers(59%)

Just like Louisville, Mizzou’s placement in this tier of odds is a bit of a head-scratcher for a team that ranks 12th in SOR with winning records against both Top 50 and Top 100 opponents. BPI is relatively down on the Tigers, ranking them 34th (compared with 21st for NET and 23rd for KenPom), and they have no shortage of difficult opponents left on the schedule — somehow, their previous schedule ranked 91st toughest in the nation. (Updated at 2:57 p.m.)
Next game:Wednesday at Tennessee, 7 p.m. (SEC Network)

Oklahoma Sooners(48%)

According to SRS, the Sooners are on pace for their best season in nearly a decade (since the Buddy Hield Final Four run). What could derail it? One factor potentially driving the ESPN forecast model’s skepticism — which is much lower on OU than other models — is a massive change in schedule strength: Oklahoma is set to go from facing the 73rd-hardest schedule to the third-hardest from now on. (Updated Feb. 3 at 4:45 p.m.)
Next game:Tuesday at Auburn, 9 p.m. (SEC Network)

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1:45
Highlight: OU’s 23-0 run in the second half leads to win over Vandy

Devin McGlockton leads the offense with 22 points while Jalon Moore puts up 19 and surpasses 1,000 career points to secure the 97-67 win against the Commodores.

Georgia Bulldogs(45%)

Has Georgia done enough to warrant a tourney bid? The Bulldogs do have a 7-7 mark against Top 100 opponents, and they rank among the Top 40 in SOR. They were listed in 100% of BracketMatrix’s most recent entries. But they also carry a 3-7 record against the Top 50 specifically, and their No. 59 SOS ranking is lower than we’d expect from an SEC team. The ESPN forecast is lower on Georgia than other models, but everyone can agree they need to make a strong closing argument to close the SEC schedule. (Updated Feb. 3 at 5:06 p.m.)
Next game:Wednesday vs. LSU, 9 p.m. (SEC Network)

Arkansas Razorbacks(39%)

How is Arkansas even still on the bubble according to BPI? The Hogs are still probably better talent-wise than their résumé suggests, but they’re almost out of time to make that résumé (No. 54 in SOR) look remotely appealing to the committee. Saturday’s win in coach John Calipari’s Kentucky homecoming helped. But was it too little, too late? (Updated Feb. 3 at 4:38 p.m.)
Next game:Wednesday at Texas, 9 p.m. (ESPN2)

Vanderbilt Commodores(18%)*

The ESPN forecast is comparatively down on the Commodores in their bid to snap a seven-season tournament drought; it has them at 18% to make the tourney, as compared to an average of 56% for other models. That’s partly because BPI has Vandy ranked 55th in the nation, despite its No. 38 ranking in SOR. Few teams in the nation have a bigger split between their schedule strength to date (85th hardest) and in the future (second hardest). (Updated Feb. 3 at 8:19 p.m.)
Next game:Tuesday at Florida, 7 p.m. (SEC Network)


Outside looking in (1% to 24%)

LSU Tigers (17%), South Carolina Gamecocks (3%)

Big Ten

Locks

Illinois Fighting Illini (99%), Purdue Boilermakers (99%), Michigan Wolverines (95%), Michigan State Spartans (95%)


Should be in

Maryland Terrapins(94%)

There might be questions about the Terps’ schedule strength — they rank 77th nationally in BPI SOS, last in the Big Ten, after facing the nation’s 347th-toughest nonconference slate — but their résumé is otherwise strong: They’re 15th in NET, with a 9-5 record against Top 100 opponents. (Updated Feb. 3 at 1:31 p.m.)
Next game:Thursday at Ohio State, 7 p.m. (FS1)

Wisconsin Badgers(91%)

The Badgers are all but a lock — the consensus of different tourney forecast models has them at 97%, and they appear in 100% of BracketMatrix’s aggregated picks, with an average seed of 4.5. At No. 13 in both SOR and 12th in Wins Above Bubble, Wisconsin has one of the better résumés of any team our model still technically lists on the bubble here. (Updated Feb. 3 at 1:33 p.m.)
Next game:Tuesday vs. Indiana, 9 p.m. (Peacock)

UCLA Bruins(86%)

UCLA seemed to be in some peril a month ago, losing four in a row and five-of-six around the turn of the calendar to 2025, but the Bruins pulled out of the skid with five straight conference wins. Despite a schedule on the easier side (49th), the Bruins are in solid tourney shape with a No. 33 ranking in SOR. (Updated Feb. 3 at 12:04 p.m.)
Next game:Tuesday vs. Michigan State, 10 p.m. (Peacock)

Ohio State Buckeyes(83%)

Ohio State will be an interesting litmus test for the selection committee. The Buckeyes have played a very difficult schedule (11th in the nation), which helps explain a record only four games above .500, and they have a distinct split against the Top 50 in BPI (3-8) versus everyone else (10-1). At No. 46 in SOR, they’re right in the zone of debate for the committee, and they’re facing a lot of injuries all at once, but 99% of BracketMatrix entries have OSU in the field. (Updated Feb. 3 at 12:05 p.m.)
Next game:Thursday vs. Maryland, 7 p.m. (FS1)

Oregon Ducks(82%)

The Ducks have held their own (4-5) against Top 50 competition, and a 6-1 record against teams ranked Nos. 51-100 has given them a good placement (23rd) in SOR. They’re coming out of a rough patch in the schedule, losing four-of-five, but Oregon’s future SOS ranks a manageable 47th hardest. (Updated Feb. 3 at 12:07 p.m.)
Next game:Wednesday at Michigan, 6:30 p.m. (BTN)


Work to do

Nebraska Cornhuskers(52%)

Husker fans are tired of hearing this, but Nebraska is the only major-conference program to have never won a tournament game. Will they get a chance to change that this season? That outlook got a lot stronger with wins against Illinois and Oregon, though the Huskers still have a 6-8 record against Top 100 foes and rank just inside the Top 50 in SOR. The BPI model reports there’s a little better than a 50-50 chance that we see Nebraska give it a try. (Updated Feb. 3 at 1:02 p.m.)
Next game:Wednesday at Washington, 10:30 p.m. (BTN)

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0:21
Brice Williams drains 3-pointer and gets the foul

Brice Williams knocks down a 3-pointer and gets the and-1 for Nebraska.

Northwestern Wildcats(47%)

We have to be honest: Northwestern isn’t on many bracketology radars at the moment — especially after getting eaten alive (3-8) to start off Big Ten play. But the ESPN forecast does see a Top 50 BPI team with a winning record overall, whose SOS ranking improves from 21st-toughest in the past to only 36th-hardest going forward. Still, it’s difficult to imagine that the Wildcats will be able to make up for a 5-10 record against Top 100 opponents so far. (Updated Feb. 3 at 4:36 p.m.)
Next game:Tuesday vs. USC, 9 p.m. (BTN)

Penn State Nittany Lions(38%)

Penn State and Nebraska are in very similar situations on the bubble, with nearly identical records overall and in the conference. The Huskers have played a tougher schedule (36th versus 66th) and therefore have the better ranking in SOR (48th versus 72nd). But the Nittany Lions also play the easier schedule going forward (53rd versus 43rd), which feeds into PSU’s nearly 40% tourney odds. Still, based on how they’ve played recently, no one should hold their breath about Penn State’s chances. (Updated Feb. 3 at 4:29 p.m.)
Next game:Tuesday vs. Minnesota, 7 p.m. (BTN)

Indiana Hoosiers(30%)

Despite being one of the nation’s most disappointing teams, losing five of their past six games, and despite suffering a number of recent injuries down the roster, the Hoosiers’ tourney hopes are still alive — if on life support. Even with an abysmal 1-7 record against Top 50 opponents, Indiana is nearly .500 against the Top 100, and almost all of its remaining games will offer the chance to add résumé value if it can win. (Updated Feb. 3 at 4:16 p.m.)
Next game:Tuesday at Wisconsin, 9 p.m. (Peacock)

Iowa Hawkeyes(29%)

If the BPI forecast still thinks Iowa has a meaningful chance to make the NCAA tournament, it might be the only one after the Hawkeyes’ recent stretch of four losses in five games. All of the other forecast models peg Iowa for less than a 5% chance to get in, but it’s undeniable that coach Fran McCaffery’s team will get plenty more chances to turn things around and add wins against top opponents, which might be feeding BPI’s optimism. (Updated Feb. 3 at 4:14 p.m.)
Next game:Tuesday vs. Purdue, 7 p.m. (Peacock)

USC Trojans(22%)*

The Trojans have come a long way since they were losing by 35 to Saint Mary’s in November, pulling to an even record (5-5) in the Big Ten. It might be too little, too late — they still rank only 61st in SOR and 68th in NET — and their No. 56 ranking in BPI doesn’t inspire much confidence that they can rack up many more conference wins going forward, which helps explain the Trojans’ 22% tourney odds in the ESPN model. (Updated Feb. 3 at 8:33 p.m.)
Next game:Tuesday at Northwestern, 9 p.m. (BTN)


Outside looking in

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (8%), Minnesota Golden Gophers (2%), Washington Huskies (1%)

Big 12

Locks

Houston Cougars (100%), Kansas Jayhawks (99%), Iowa State Cyclones (99%), Arizona Wildcats (99%), Texas Tech Red Raiders (95%)


Should be in

Baylor Bears(93%)

Baylor’s strength of schedule (22nd toughest nationally) gives it better résumé metrics than we might expect from its mid-pack record (6-4) within the Big 12. The ESPN forecast model rates the Bears’ tourney chances above 90% because they rank a solid 31st in SOR, and their BPI rating (14th best) sets them up to win more in the future, though tough tests remain. (Updated Feb. 3 at 1:32 p.m.)
Next game:Tuesday at Texas Tech, 9 p.m. (ESPN2)

BYU Cougars(81%)

BYU is a true bubble team, with the various forecast models somewhat mixed on its chances. If the season ended today, it isn’t clear whether the Cougars would be in — only 14% of the BracketMatrix entries listed BYU in the field. But BPI is comparatively optimistic about their chances because they are a higher-rated team (27th) than their résumé might indicate, and they do have a number of remaining résumé games to boost themselves in the eyes of the committee, starting with the first of two contests against Arizona. (Updated Feb. 3 at 2:08 p.m.)
Next game:Tuesday vs. Arizona, 11 p.m. (ESPN)


Work to do

Cincinnati Bearcats(67%)

The Bearcats are among the most polarizing teams in our data. While the ESPN forecast assigns them a 67% tourney chance on the basis of a No. 43 ranking in BPI and a manageable 37th-ranked future SOS, that’s a clear outlier relative to other forecasts. Putting the algorithm aside, they have a lot of “work to do” to improve upon a 1-7 record against Top 50 foes. (Updated Feb. 3 at 2:16 p.m.)
Next game:Wednesday at UCF, 7 p.m. (CBSSN)

West Virginia Mountaineers(29%)

Most other models are higher on West Virginia than the BPI forecast is, but this team’s tourney fate might come right down to the wire either way. The Mountaineers are 32nd in SOR at the moment, but both BPI and KenPom rank them around the mid-40s in ability. They’ve lost five of their past eight games — snapping a three-game skid with a big win over Cincinnati — and the schedule doesn’t exactly let up going forward. Road games against Baylor (Feb. 15), Texas Tech (Feb. 22) and BYU (March 1) could make or break West Virginia’s season. (Updated Feb. 3 at 4:12 p.m.)
Next game:Wednesday at TCU, 8 p.m. (ESPN+)

Arizona State Sun Devils(13%)*

After an impressive 8-1 start to the season, coach Bobby Hurley’s Sun Devils have struggled quite a bit — they’re 4-8 since Dec. 14. Because of their difficult schedule (fifth-toughest in the nation), however, ASU still ranks among the Top 50 in SOR and Wins Above Bubble. The Sun Devils’ remaining schedule is only slightly less brutal, but it gives them a chance to possibly fix their 2-8 mark against Top 50 opponents (and 7-9 record vs. the Top 100 overall). They do need to beat the tough opponents, though, which they’ve only done once recently (at WVU on Jan. 21). (Updated Feb. 3 at 4:07 p.m.)
Next game:Tuesday vs. Kansas State, 10 p.m. (ESPN+)

UCF Knights(10%)*

The Knights have a similar story this season to Arizona State, even if their drop-off in conference play was slightly less severe (aside from a 51-point home loss to Kansas on Jan. 5). UCF is still hanging onto NCAA tourney odds in the 10-20% range across most forecast models, and they dropped from No. 35 to No. 44 in SOR after a recent loss to BYU. They’re a borderline Top 60 talent in KenPom and BPI and have losing records against top competition. They’ll need to pull off a few upsets from here on out. (Updated Feb. 3 at 4:04 p.m.)
Next game:Wednesday vs. Cincinnati, 7 p.m. (CBSSN)


Outside looking in

TCU Horned Frogs (23%), Utah Utes (17%), Kansas State Wildcats (6%), Colorado Buffaloes (1%)

ACC

Locks

Duke Blue Devils (100%)


Should be in

Clemson Tigers(89%)

The Tigers would be a bona fide “Lock” if we were sorting off of forecast models aside from the BPI. As it is, Clemson’s close at 89% — and its 10-4 record against the BPI Top 100 and 73rd ranked remaining SOS ought to carry the Tigers back to the tourney after last year’s Elite Eight run. (Updated Feb. 3 at 4:39 p.m.)
Next game:Tuesday vs. Georgia Tech, 9 p.m. (ACC Network)

North Carolina Tar Heels(87%)

UNC easily has the talent to make the tourney, and that factor may help them make it as one of the last power-conference teams in. But they are just 52nd in SOR with a 6-10 record against Top 100 opponents, including 2-8 against the Top 50. A recent loss at Duke in which they were down 19 on average won’t help their optics with the committee. (Updated Feb. 3 at 2:01 p.m.)
Next game:Saturday vs. Pittsburgh, 4 p.m. (ESPN2)

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2:50
What are the NCAA tournament outlooks for UNC, Duke?

Joe Lunardi breaks down the latest on North Carolina’s NCAA tournament outlook and whether Duke can be the No. 1 overall seed when all is said and done.


Work to do

Pittsburgh Panthers(62%)

Monday’s home loss to Virginia dropped Pittsburgh from 72% odds to 62%. The Panthers’ résumé isn’t going to blow anyone away — they rank 47th in SOR and 51st in Wins Above Bubble, with a 6-7 mark against BPI Top 100 foes and a .500 record in what has been a diminished ACC this season. But if the conference sends five teams to the tournament, which the ESPN model thinks is likely, that group would probably still include the Panthers. (Updated Feb. 3 at 9:07 p.m.)
Next game:Saturday at North Carolina, 4 p.m. (ESPN2)

Louisville Cardinals(58%)

We hear you, Louisville fans — and we agree that the BPI forecast is probably much too low on the Cardinals. While they are just .500 against Top 50 teams, they are 4-1 against teams ranked 51 through 100, and the Cards rank 27th in SOR. Frankly, it would be shocking for Louisville to not lock up a tourney spot at this point, but the ESPN forecast model only gives them a 57% chance to make it as an at-large bid, conditional on not winning the ACC tourney. (Updated Feb. 3 at 2:58 p.m.)
Next game:Wednesday at Boston College, 7 p.m. (ACC Network)

SMU Mustangs(58%)

With the ACC’s outlook coalescing around the idea of six teams — maybe seven, if we include Wake Forest — chasing five NCAA tourney slots, someone is going to be the odd team out. The ESPN model reports that it is basically a toss-up between SMU and Louisville, though it seems clear from a holistic perspective that Louisville has the stronger chance. That means the Mustangs are playing catch-up to make their case with only a few résumé-boosting opportunities left. (Updated Feb. 3 at 3 p.m.)
Next game:Wednesday at Virginia Tech, 9 p.m. (ACC Network)

Wake Forest Demon Deacons(9%)*

Most forecasts don’t like Wake Forest’s chances very much, because they don’t think the 16-6 team is very good (they rank 75th in KenPom) and it’s unclear whether the ACC will even get enough tourney teams to accommodate them. But the Deacs’ résumé is far from bad — they rank 36th in both SOR and Wins Above Bubble — and they play only the nation’s 70th-toughest schedule from here. They’ve already beaten fellow ACC bubble members UNC and Pitt so far. (Updated Feb. 3 at 3 p.m.)
Next game:Wednesday at Stanford, 11 p.m. (ESPNU)


Outside looking in

NC State Wolfpack (7%), Florida State Seminoles (6%), Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5%), Stanford Cardinal (2%), Syracuse Orange (1%)

Big East

Locks

Marquette Golden Eagles (97%), UConn Huskies (97%)


Should be in

St. John’s Red Storm (89%)

The Red Storm ought to be quite safe to make the tourney, with a Top 15 SOR and just the 42nd-hardest remaining schedule in the nation. Despite the recent loss of forward Brady Dunlap to an abdominal injury, they just keep winning Big East games (10-1). (Updated Feb. 3 at 1:35 p.m.)
Next game:Tuesday vs. Marquette, 6:30 p.m. (FS1)

Creighton Bluejays (87%)

Creighton ranks 36th in NET, and they’re outside the Top 30 in KenPom rating as well, but a fifth straight tourney appearance should be in the cards regardless. The Bluejays’ 16-6 record is good when you consider they’ve played the ninth-hardest schedule in the nation; they also have winning records against both Top 50 and Top 100 BPI opponents. (Updated Feb. 3 at 1:36 p.m.)
Next game:Wednesday at Providence, 8:30 p.m. (FS1)


Work to do

Villanova Wildcats (38%)

ESPN’s forecast thinks Villanova is a better team than its 12-10 record (5-6 in the Big East) and terrible résumé rankings — 86th in SOR and 111th in Wins Above Bubble — indicate, as evidenced by their No. 44 ranking in BPI. (That’s somewhat significantly higher than the Wildcats’ rank in either NET or KenPom.) But will it matter? Nova has lost five of its past six games, and still has to face St. John’s, UConn and Marquette. It might be too late to fix a Wildcat team that has run hot and cold this season. (Updated Feb. 3 at 4:24 p.m.)
Next game:Wednesday at DePaul, 9 p.m. (CBSSN)

Xavier Musketeers (31%)

Coach Sean Miller’s team has generally improved as the season progressed as Xavier ranks Top 50 in both BPI and KenPom. Though their résumé against top competition is lacking — the Musketeers are 5-9 against the BPI Top 100 — they have mostly gotten through the tough part of their schedule and will at least be able to improve on their raw win-loss mark from here. (Updated Feb. 3 at 4:15 p.m.)
Next game:Tuesday vs. Georgetown, 8:30 p.m. (FS1)


Outside looking in

Butler Bulldogs (7%), Providence Friars (5%), Georgetown Hoyas (1%)

High Mid-Majors

Locks

Gonzaga Bulldogs (99%)


Should be in

Memphis Tigers (84%)

Coach Penny Hardaway’s crew has an impressive résumé, ranking 16th in SOR with a 5-2 record against the BPI Top 50 — including its Maui Invitational win against UConn in November — and an 9-3 mark versus the Top 100. They would seem to have done enough to make the tourney, though the ESPN model still gives them just a 63% at-large probability conditional on not winning the national title. (Updated Feb. 3 at 2:04 p.m.)
Next game:Wednesday vs. Tulsa, 8 p.m. (ESPN+)

Saint Mary’s Gaels (80%)

With West Coast Conference rival Gonzaga considered a Lock (>99% tourney odds) with a 61% chance to win the league title, the ESPN forecast isn’t totally sure if the Gaels will earn the conference’s second bid as an at-large entry. But right now, Saint Mary’s is 10-0 in the conference, including a head-to-head victory over the Zags, and the Gaels rank 22nd in metrics like the NET and Wins Above Bubble. Though they’ve faced only the 99th-hardest schedule in the country, the Gaels are 6-3 against the Top 100 opponents they have faced, including 2-1 against the Top 50. (Updated Feb. 3 at 2:12 p.m.)
Next game:Thursday at San Francisco, 9 p.m. (ESPN2/ESPN+)

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2:04
Saint Mary’s goes on incredible 30-0 run

Saint Mary’s scores 30 unanswered points to take control of its matchup with Santa Clara.


Work to do

Utah State Aggies (66%)

In search of their third consecutive NCAA tournament trip, the Aggies have the highest SRS rating in program history. It’s difficult to imagine that they wouldn’t make the tourney after that — especially considering their 8-3 record against Top 100 competition — but the various forecast models are all over the place on this team, ranging from 40% (TeamRankings) to 92% (PlayoffStatus). (Updated Feb. 3 at 2:17 p.m.)
Next game:Tuesday at Wyoming, 8:30 p.m.

San Diego State Aztecs (44%)

The Aztecs find themselves around a coin-flip for the tourney after a recent stretch of not playing their best basketball, even though they’re still 8-3 in Mountain West play. They rank 48th in NET and 42nd in SOR, squarely in the danger zone for a team seeking an at-large bid (especially from a conference that will probably have fewer bids this year than last). According to the ESPN forecast, the MWC is tracking for 2.2 expected tourney teams, a sharp drop from six last March. (Updated Feb. 3 at 4:34 p.m.)
Next game:Saturday at Colorado State, 10 p.m.

Boise State Broncos (37%)

The Broncos don’t have very strong résumé numbers overall — they rank 74th in SOR and 68th in Wins Above Bubble. But they are 50th in NET and have a 2-1 record against BPI Top 50 opponents, with what might be the chance to add more against New Mexico, San Diego State and Utah State (who are all Top 50 BPI teams or close to it). There’s a 24% chance Boise State can get an at-large nod conditional on not winning the MWC title. (Updated Feb. 3 at 4:22 p.m.)
Next game:Tuesday at UNLV, 11 p.m. (CBSSN)

New Mexico Lobos (35%)

The BPI forecast is much lower on the Lobos than the other models, which average a probability of around 78% for them to make the NCAA tourney. Some of that is because New Mexico’s BPI ranking (52nd) is lower than in other power ratings such as the NET (46th), KenPom (42nd) and Bart Torvik (36th). But the Lobos have built up a solid résumé, ranking 34th in SOR. As long as they avoid a major collapse and the MWC gets a reasonable number of bids, it’s hard to think New Mexico will be left out, as indicated by their presence in 95% of the BracketMatrix entries. (Updated Feb. 3 at 4:33 p.m.)
Next game:Wednesday vs. Colorado State, 10:30 p.m. (FS1)


Outside looking in

North Texas Mean Green (24%), Nevada Wolf Pack (24%), San Francisco Dons (11%), Colorado State Rams (11%),Florida Atlantic Owls (8%)

Low Mid-Majors

Work to do

VCU Rams (59%)

VCU is the favorite to win the Atlantic 10 tournament (at 41%), but the conference has hovered between one to two NCAA berths in recent seasons. Because the Rams only rank 60th in SOR, they’re no sure thing to make it in without an auto-bid; ESPN’s model only gives them a 30% shot at an at-large bid conditional on not winning their conference tourney, in part because they are just 2-2 vs. Top 100 opponents. (Updated Feb. 3 at 2:18 p.m.)
Next game:Tuesday vs. La Salle, 7 p.m. (CBSSN)

Liberty Flames (41%)

Liberty is here because of its 40% probability of winning the Conference USA tournament championship, which are good odds relative to other teams that are on the bubble. But let’s be clear: If the Flames fail to win the conference, there is very little chance they would make it as an at-large team. According to the ESPN Analytics model, they only have a 1.4% chance to make the NCAA tourney conditional on not grabbing an automatic bid. (Updated Feb. 3 at 4:30 p.m.)
Next game:Thursday vs. Louisiana Tech, 8 p.m. (CBSSN)

Drake Bulldogs (34%)

The Missouri Valley has gotten only one NCAA bid six times in the past seven tournaments, so most likely the conference tournament will determine the fate of Drake, Bradley and the rest of the MVC. However, it’s still worth at least keeping an eye on the Bulldogs, as their 20-2 record has them ranked around Top 40 in both SOR and Wins Above Bubble despite playing the nation’s 178th-toughest schedule. (Updated Feb. 3 at 4:18 p.m.)
Next game:Tuesday at Murray State, 7 p.m. (ESPN2/ESPN+)

Bradley Braves (33%)

Bradley has been an appealing mid-major all season, with the potential to make what would be the program’s second NCAA tournament appearance since 2006. But a couple of bad recent losses have left the Braves’ chances very much in flux. Most models — including the ESPN forecast — list Bradley’s tourney probability in the 20-40% range, though most of that comes from the prospect of winning the MVC tournament. Their No. 73 ranking in SOR is outside where we’d expect an at-large tourney team to be, though a win against Drake on Feb. 16 would bolster their résumé. (Updated Feb. 3 at 4:34 p.m.)
Next game:Wednesday vs. Belmont, 9 p.m. (ESPN+)

George Mason Patriots (26%)

While George Mason and Dayton have very similar odds in the BPI forecast model, the models tend to favor the Patriots because of their superior metrics like SOR and Wins Above Bubble. The Patriots were listed in 42% of BracketMatrix’s most recent entries, though they only have one real résumé-boosting game remaining (at VCU on Feb. 22). (Updated Feb. 3 at 4:10 p.m.)
Next game:Wednesday at George Washington, 7 p.m. (ESPN+)


Outside looking in

Dayton Flyers (21%), Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (14%), Saint Joseph’s Hawks (13%), Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (12%), Jacksonville State Gamecocks (11%)