Breaking down contenders for men’s college basketball awards
Mid-January is always a good time to reevaluate the landscape in men’s college basketball — which is why we’ve been revisiting our preseason predictions all week. At this point, we have enough data — we think — to feel more confident about which players, teams and coaches have separated themselves from the field.
And although everything we believe right now could change by March, there appears to be a group of talented individuals who’ve dominated the game thus far.
From elite freshmen to the player of the year race to All-America teams (all-freshman and all-transfer squads, too), Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf have you covered with a midseason check-in and a fresh look at the top talent worth watching in the months ahead.
Player of the Year
Borzello:Johni Broome, Auburn Tigers
Medcalf: Johni Broome, Auburn Tigers
Borzello: Before this weekend, this barely warranted discussion. Broome has taken his game up a level this season for the top-ranked Tigers, averaging career highs in points, rebounds and assists, while still blocking nearly three shots a game. He was having the best statistical season in the country by KenPom’s Player of the Year rankings, doing it all for the best team in the country and having huge games against the best competition. But Saturday he suffered an ankle injury against South Carolina that could keep him out indefinitely and Cooper Flagg had a monster breakout: 42 points, 7 assists and 6 rebounds. Suddenly, the race had changed. If the season ended now, I still think Broome would win the award — but it’s up for grabs.
Medcalf: First, let’s hope Broome is healthy. But even a healthy Broome could hear Flagg’s footsteps in recent weeks — it seems as if Flagg, over the past month, has been a different player. And Saturday’s 42-point effort — a record for a Duke freshman — catapulted him into the top tier. Broome (75% at the rim, 50% on midrange shots, per CBB Analytics) is still the leader. But Saturday’s development might have permanently altered the race.
Freshman of the Year
Borzello: Cooper Flagg, Duke Blue Devils
Medcalf: Cooper Flagg, Duke Blue Devils
Medcalf: This is easy, right? Sometimes, the hype train is exaggerated for talented incoming freshmen. But that wasn’t the case with Flagg, the projected No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft who has earned every ounce of preseason buzz. Though his offensive numbers make this an easy pick — 17.6 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 3.7 APG, 1.3 BPG, 1.6 SPG — Flagg is also the anchor of a Duke squad that’s playing the best defense in America.
Borzello: Yep, no debate here. I think Dylan Harper could have made a case during the first six weeks of the season, but Rutgers is really struggling lately and his numbers have tailed off as he battles the flu. This is clearly Flagg’s award, and I thought that even before his ridiculous Saturday performance. He wasn’t putting up Zion Williamson numbers for most of the season, although that wasn’t really the expectation. But after Saturday, he’s now averaging 24.3 points, 7.2 rebounds and 4.5 assists over his past six games, while shooting 54.5% from 3-point range. That’s not far off from Zion numbers. And if those 3-point numbers continue, look out. He’s now had a statement highlight (his dunk against Pitt) and a statement performance (against Notre Dame) in the past week. Let me ask you this: Is there any world where Flagg gets caught for Freshman of the Year? I just don’t see it.
Medcalf: After Saturday’s results, it feels like we’re past that question and on to this one: Will Flagg become the fourth freshman in college basketball history to win the Wooden Award?
Coach of the Year
Borzello: Bruce Pearl, Auburn Tigers
Medcalf: Shaka Smart, Marquette Golden Eagles
Borzello: The arguments can finally begin! Rick Barnes had a really strong case for this one, but then Tennessee lost by 30 points to Florida and that makes it tough. If the Volunteers return to form, he goes right back into the discussion. But taking him out of the equation, it’s hard for me to pick anyone other than Pearl. Auburn was a borderline top-10 team entering the season and now the Tigers are the clear No. 1 team in the country (with a healthy Broome). Entering the weekend, they were No. 1 in the NET, No. 1 at KenPom, No. 1 at Torvik, No. 1 in the KPI, No. 1 in ESPN’s Strength of Record and No. 1 in Wins Above Bubble. And Pearl is doing it without a projected first-round pick on the team. I’ll hang up and listen to your argument for Shaka, though.
Medcalf: I think Pearl makes a lot of sense. All of the metrics are impressive. And I think a lot of people, if they had to choose now, would pick Auburn to cut down the nets in San Antonio. Yet, national coach of the year never goes to guys like Pearl. Those gaudy numbers might actually hurt his case. Since Jim Harrick won Naismith College Coach of the Year after leading UCLA to the national title in 1995, only two coaches have won the same award during a season that included a national title run (Jay Wright in 2016 and Dan Hurley last season). Shaka Smart, meanwhile, has helped Kam Jones develop into a Wooden Award contender and, despite losing stars Tyler Kolek and Oso Ighodaro from last year’s crew, Marquette is top 20 in offensive and defensive efficiency. I think this could be Smart’s year to finally win the honor.
Borzello: Stats and trends?! I’m going off vibes here! But you could be right. I tend to compare preseason expectations with current standing nationally and just lean toward the biggest overperformers. Pearl falls into that category, Barnes likely falls into that category, as does Todd Golden, Mark Pope — and I could see Brad Underwood, Dana Altman or Dusty May making a run at it if one of them can make a push toward the Big Ten title. One more sleeper option: Chris Jans at Mississippi State. The Bulldogs have been terrific all season.
Medcalf: Well, I live off vibes, so I get it. The name that stands out on your list is Dusty May. I mean, what if he leads Michigan to a Big Ten title in Year 1 with a pair of 7-foot giants running his offense? What if he makes a run to the second weekend or beyond? In that scenario, I think he’d have a serious shot to pull off the upset here.
Biggest surprise
Borzello: Kentucky Wildcats
Medcalf:Florida Gators
Medcalf: I definitely respect your Kentucky pick. But Florida just wallopped former No. 1 Tennessee by 30 points and scored a double-digit win at Arkansas on Saturday. The only reason Todd Golden’s squad isn’t undefeated is because of that historic UK effort in a 106-101 win over the Gators earlier this month. They were projected to finish sixth in the SEC in the preseason, but Walter Clayton Jr. leads a backcourt that could help this crew compete for the crown in the strongest conference in America. I knew Florida could be good. But elite? Nah, man. This is wild.
Borzello: That’s fair. Florida is a viable option. But what Mark Pope has done in a short amount of time in Lexington is impressive. Nobody thought it would happen for him at Kentucky this quickly. You have to take into account that he started from scratch last spring after taking over the Wildcats. New roster, different style of play than what Big Blue Nation was used to under John Calipari. And in the first two-plus months of his debut season, he has wins over Duke, Gonzaga, Louisville, Mississippi State — and your Florida Gators in one of the best games of the season. The Wildcats have defensive issues and a couple of surprising losses, but they’re way better than I expected in Year 1.
Medcalf: I get it! It’s hard to argue against Pope and Kentucky, especially considering the backlash around the hire nine months ago. He has found a way to build real chemistry within his squad in a short time. But I think the Gators’ statement against Tennessee catapulted the program into that national title contender conversation. Though many of its top pieces returned this season, Florida was barely top-100 in adjusted defensive efficiency last season. The Gators are top-15 this season. Yes, there were signs that Florida could be good this season. I just think the past week or so has elevated the program to a realm that didn’t seem likely prior to the season.
Borzello: I think in this day and age of college sports, the fact that Pope had to build his roster from nothing has to be a factor. And there’s no grace period when you’re the head coach at Kentucky. Compare that with Florida. Of the seven guys who played 20 minutes or more against Tennessee, five were on the team last season. And that was a group that won 24 games and reached the SEC title game. So maybe we shouldn’t be surprised. And that’s probably on us for not fully buying into the Gators in the preseason. It’s a good pick, though. They’re a juggernaut right now.
Biggest disappointment
Borzello:Kansas State Wildcats
Medcalf: Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Borzello: There are a lot of really good candidates for this one — considering that a bunch have turned around their seasons in the past few weeks. Arizona, Indiana and Villanova all look like they’ve turned a corner. I still have questions about North Carolina, but the Tar Heels should be fine in a bad ACC. Miami and Providence are decent options, too. But I’ll go with Kansas State. There was a case for the Wildcats to be in the preseason top 25, with Jerome Tang going into the portal and landing Coleman Hawkins, Achor Achor, Ugonna Onyenso, Dug McDaniel and more. The pieces haven’t fit and there have been personnel issues, too. Achor left in early December, McDaniel’s relationship with Tang has run hot and cold and Onyenso barely plays. I’m sure they will still get a couple of big wins at home because that’s how Bramlage Coliseum works, but this team isn’t very good.
Medcalf: I’m most surprised by how many teams that were on this list a month ago are no longer on it. Kudos to them. I think Kansas State is a smart pick. The Wildcats won big in the portal but they’ve failed to impress this season. The drama has only magnified the turmoil. But I don’t think the projections for Rutgers were difficult to achieve. The expectation was that a squad with two projected top-three picks could be something other than below average. But that’s where Rutgers sits, despite boasting Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey, who are still projected top-three picks in the 2025 NBA draft, per ESPN. Harper looks like he’ll play in the NBA for a decade and Bailey, when he’s on, is remarkable. But Steve Pikiell hasn’t cultivated enough talent around this group to make Rutgers more than an afterthought in college. An 8-8 record overall and 1-4 record in league play through Jan. 9 was not the plan.
Borzello: I think we underestimated how much you need an experienced and balanced roster in college basketball. You can’t win with just two stars and underwhelming talent around them. Duke surrounded its freshman stars with proven high-major role players. Rutgers failed to do the same. Kansas State’s issue is also one of roster construction. The Wildcats’ three biggest additions were, effectively, all centers. And their best returnee was also a big man. It shows the pitfalls of going with a portal-heavy roster. You simply can’t have misses.
Medcalf: That’s accurate. The best coaches right now are also the best GMs. The portal can be a blessing and curse. Both of these teams seemed to have failed to get the right guys to create a strong unit. They found players but have not yet formed a team. We’re dealing with two teams with sub-100 efficiency rankings on KenPom. And the folks who signed those NIL checks can’t be happy about that.
All-American Teams
First Team
Borzello
Johni Broome, Auburn
Kam Jones, Marquette
Cooper Flagg, Duke
Eric Dixon, Villanova
PJ Haggerty, Memphis
Medcalf
Johni Broome, Auburn
Cooper Flagg, Duke
Kam Jones, Marquette
Chaz Lanier, Tennessee
Eric Dixon, Villanova
Medcalf: I think we can both agree that any All-America first team that does not include Johni Broome, Cooper Flagg and Kam Jones is invalid. But I think there is more subjectivity beyond those names. In my opinion, Eric Dixon is the Joe Burrow of college basketball and that’s why I have him over PJ Haggerty, who is obviously having an excellent season. Dixon doesn’t get the respect he deserves despite carrying Villanova with ridiculous numbers that could help the Wildcats stumble into the postseason. We both agree on Chaz Lanier in that group, too.
Borzello: Agreed on the three locks. Broome, Flagg and Jones all need to be on the first team. The last two spots are up for debate, although Dixon leading the country in scoring and Villanova’s uptick in form give him a strong case. I lean Haggerty slightly over Lanier after the Tennessee guard’s past two games. Haggerty has been incredible for a top-15 Memphis team, though. Entering the weekend, he was averaging 22.2 points, 5.7 points, 3.3 assists on 50% field goal shooting and 44.7% 3-point shooting.
Medcalf: From there, it gets interesting.
Second Team
Borzello
Chaz Lanier, Tennessee
Braden Smith, Purdue
Mark Sears, Alabama
Walter Clayton Jr., Florida
Hunter Dickinson, Kansas
Medcalf
PJ Haggerty, Memphis
Hunter Dickinson, Kansas
Braden Smith, Purdue
Javon Small, West Virginia
Walter Clayton Jr., Florida
Medcalf: I’m curious to see if that effort at Florida hurts Lanier down the road because it’s such a baffling moment for an incredible player and team. But I agree that thus far, he has been a reliable force in the toughest matchups for the Vols. My thought on Javon Small is that West Virginia — which hasn’t had Tucker DeVries for a chunk of the season due to injury — is probably a .500 team without him. He had a double-double at Kansas, 26 points against a rising Georgetown squad, 31 in a win over Gonzaga and eight assists in his team’s first matchup against Arizona.
Third Team
Borzello
Keshon Gilbert, Iowa State
Javon Small, West Virginia
Dylan Harper, Rutgers
Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois
Zakai Zeigler, Tennessee
Medcalf
Keshon Gilbert, Iowa State
Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois
Dylan Harper, Rutgers
Zakai Zeigler, Tennessee
Graham Ike, Gonzaga
Borzello: I love Small. I was baffled he didn’t make the 25-man Wooden Award midseason watch list. He has been fantastic. I moved Gilbert down to the third team to make room for Mark Sears, who has been great the past six weeks, but I think Gilbert deserves some highlighting. For most of the season, he was the catalyst for a top-three Iowa State team and outplayed Kam Jones head-to-head.
For the final guy on my third team, I’ve been going back and forth for a week. I think Zeigler makes a great case, and he bounced back nicely from the loss to Florida. I think Ryan Nembhard is a name. You obviously have Ike. Josh Hubbard and Wade Taylor have arguments, although Taylor’s injury hurts. Alex Karaban isn’t far off. We’ll get to Danny Wolf‘s case a little later. I weighted recent performances pretty heavily for that spot.
All-Freshman Team
Borzello
Cooper Flagg, Duke
Dylan Harper, Rutgers
Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma
Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois
Thomas Sorber, Georgetown
Medcalf
Derik Queen, Maryland
Cooper Flagg, Duke
Dylan Harper, Rutgers
Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois
Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma
Borzello: It has been a ridiculous season for talented freshmen, with at least a dozen options for these five spots, but we ended up with four names in common! We discussed Flagg earlier, Harper is a lock despite his recent illness, Jakucionis has been absolutely awesome for a really good Illinois team and Fears is essentially the reason Oklahoma started the season with 13 straight wins (although he has been struggling in SEC play). My final spot came down to Sorber and Queen, although players such as Ace Bailey, Tre Johnson, Boogie Fland, Asa Newell, Labaron Philon and a healthy Liam McNeeley are in the discussion. But Sorber has been a revelation for a resurgent Georgetown team. He’s averaging 15.1 points, 8.4 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 2.3 blocks while shooting better than 55% from the field. And he hasn’t slowed down too much in Big East play, going for 11 points, 13 boards and 5 blocks against Marquette and 19 points and eight boards against Seton Hall.
Medcalf: This feels like a really healthy season for the freshman class. And I think we’ll see more elite one-and-done athletes at this level in the years ahead. Flagg is Flagg. I feel like Harper could play for the Timberwolves now and finish with 12 points, 8 assists and 2 steals (assuming he were healthy). Jakucionis, at 6-foot-6, will be a matchup problem for any team Illinois faces. I think Fears is fearless. (Sorry, I couldn’t resist.) But he has some Trae Young qualities. He’ll be fun to watch in March. And I love Sorber’s game, especially on the defensive end. I think America should always root for an elite Georgetown big man. I don’t make the rules. But Sorber’s best games were produced against sub-100 KenPom teams. But Queen gave Maryland some of his best performances against Oregon, Ohio State, Villanova, Purdue and Marquette. Not all of those games were wins but he showed up. Also, if Maryland and Georgetown got their acts together and rebooted their crosstown rivalry, we’d see those two young studs on the court together.
Borzello: The Hoyas and Terps faced off in a secret scrimmage in the preseason, and a little birdie told me that Sorber held his own against Queen. (And Georgetown reportedly won that one.) But that doesn’t factor in here. Queen was the last guy I left off my five. He had 22 points and 20 boards in his first college game. He’s a stud.
All-Transfer Team
Borzello
Chaz Lanier, Tennessee
PJ Haggerty, Memphis
Javon Small, West Virginia
Danny Wolf, Michigan
John Tonje, Wisconsin
Medcalf
JT Toppin, Texas Tech
Chaz Lanier, Tennessee
PJ Haggerty, Memphis
Javon Small, West Virginia
John Tonje, Wisconsin
Medcalf: I’m second-guessing my omission of Danny Wolf, the leader of a Michigan team that’s chasing a Big Ten title.
Borzello: You should be second-guessing your omission of Wolf! His scoring numbers don’t jump off the page, but he has been one of the biggest matchup problems in the country this season and his playmaking and passing ability at 7 feet tall is why Dusty May has had so much success playing Wolf alongside Vladislav Goldin on the interior. Wolf has at least five assists in six of his past eight games — while also averaging a double-double in points and rebounds and shooting 37% from 3-point range. Again, the man is 7 feet tall. Michigan is way better than I expected, and Wolf is the primary reason.
Medcalf: How dare you ignore the contribution of the great Vlad Goldin, who is doing a lot to make space for Wolf in this uncanny pairing. But Wolf has been fantastic this season. Dusty May’s name should be higher in the national coach of the year conversation as a result. But JT Toppin (17.2 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 1.7 BPG), when healthy, has been a key piece for a Texas Tech team that’s top-10 nationally in 2-point field goal percentage. But I’m convinced about Wolf. You win there. Both Toppin and Wolf are top-50 in Evan Miya’s player efficiency metrics. Tonje is ranked 279th. Are we sure he’s not the odd man out here?
Borzello: Toppin missing four games sort of took him out of consideration for me, but a closer look at Tonje’s numbers is interesting. He has obviously had his huge games: 41 points against Arizona, 33 against Pitt. But over his past six games entering this past weekend, he was averaging only 12.5 points and 5.2 rebounds, shooting 36% from the field. Maybe that allows some room for Toppin — or Adou Thiero or Norchad Omier or someone from Kentucky or a player who emerges over the next couple of months.