The biggest single betting event of the year is here.

The Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles will play for the Lombardi Trophy for the second time in three years Sunday in Super Bowl LIX. The Chiefs aim to become the first team to win three straight Super Bowl titles while the Eagles will try to play spoiler and avenge their 38-35 to Kansas City in the 2023 game.

Caesars Superdome in New Orleans will be rocking, and you can count on plenty of action at sportsbooks. With the betting options seemingly endless, we’re here to break it all down and give you the best intel to make your picks.

Odds as of publication. For the most current odds, visit ESPN BET

Jump to:
Bowen’s breakdown | Solak’s favorites | Clay’s top TD scorers
How the public is betting | Under-the-radar bets | In-game betting | The coin toss

Matt Bowen’s breakdown

When the Chiefs have the ball

Let’s start with Patrick Mahomes‘ rushing history on the championship stage. In his four Super Bowl appearances, Mahomes has averaged 43 yards rushing. And Sunday he will be forced to move against an Eagles pass rush that features multiple difference-makers up front.

In the AFC Championship Game, Mahomes rushed for 43 yards on 11 carries. He converted 22 first downs as a runner during the regular season on scramble attempts. Don’t be surprised if Andy Reid sprinkles in a designed carry or two for Mahomes, especially in the red zone.

Remember, Mahomes is one of the top scrambling quarterbacks in the league, thanks to his instinctive playing style and ability to improvise. And I would keep an eye on third downs, when the Eagles man-coverage rate jumps to 57.4%, the sixth-highest rate in the league. This is where Mahomes can cash in on scrambles to move the sticks and extend drives. Take the over on his rushing totals. (You can find all the ways to bet on Mahomes here.)

Edge: Chiefs
The play: Mahomes OVER 29.5 rushing yards (-125)

When the Eagles have the ball

We know the run game is the foundation of this Eagles offense, and Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will need to find an extra defender to get “plus-1” in the box to limit Saquon Barkley. How do you get there? Reduce the amount of split-safety looks and play more single-high coverages (Cover 1, Cover 3). And with one defender deep in the post, the Eagles and quarterback Jalen Hurts can target the matchups for wide receiver A.J. Brown.

During the regular season, Brown had 10 receptions of 25 yards or more, and he added another one in the NFC Championship Game. With Brown’s ability to play through contact — at all three levels of the field — Hurts can throw the go ball on the perimeter or target the slot fade. And Brown has the catch-and-run traits to turn a slant route into an explosive play, as 32.8% of his total receiving yardage came after the catch. Want a simplified look at the Eagles offensive game plan? Hammer the ball downhill with Barkley (you can find all of his prop bets here) and take your shots in the pass game. Play the over here with Brown on Sunday.

Edge: Eagles
The play: Brown longest reception OVER 25 yards (-110)

Who takes home the Lombardi Trophy?

I have to lean toward the Birds. Philadelphia has the ability to control tempo with Barkley and the run game, plus the Eagles’ defense under coordinator Vic Fangio has the pass-rush talent and a top-tier secondary that can create matchups advantages against the Chiefs. And if I am picking a favorite player prop? It’s Eagles outside linebacker Nolan Smith Jr. to record a sack. Smith, who has four sacks in the playoffs, can rush from his wide alignments, using his lower-body flexibility and short-area speed to win off the edge against Chiefs right tackle Jawaan Taylor.

Game picks: Eagles ML (+105), total UNDER 48.5 (-105)
Favorite prop: Smith OVER 0.5 sacks (+120)

Ben Solak’s favorite picks and props

I think the side and total are pretty accurately priced in this game, though I lean toward the Chiefs and the under. As such, my menu is almost entirely props, and there are a few that stand out as good pregame looks. Game script will be a significant factor as well, so I’ll be looking to live bet (more on that below) throughout as we see how the matchup develops.

Jalen Hurts 20+ completions (+102)

The Eagles have not trailed in the second half often this season, so Hurts hasn’t seen many prevent defenses or been forced into heavy pass-heavy game scripts.

We can get to this number if Hurts simply has a solid passing day on a typical script. We can also get home if the underdog Eagles trail after halftime, which, admittedly, has yet to happen this postseason. I like 25+ completions at +575 as well, if you’re frisky. (You can find all the ways to bet on Hurts here.)

Dallas Goedert 50+ receiving yards (-135)

By yards per target and per route, the Chiefs’ defense was the worst defense in football against opposing tight ends this season. Goedert has the potential to spring big plays rumbling after a catch, but he should also be in line for a high-target game against a Chiefs linebacking room that struggles in coverage. If Goedert is quiet early, and if the Eagles’ running game is working well, I’ll take another shot at Goedert’s live line — he is great off play-action.

Noah Gray 2+ receptions (-110)

The second and more traditional tight end behind Travis Kelce, Gray can have spike weeks against certain defenses, and the Eagles fit the bill. The Chiefs probably will play plenty of multiple tight end sets, as the Eagles rarely leave their nickel defense, even against two-TE packages. With coverage dedicated to Kelce (you can find all of his prop bets here), Gray is often likely to see backup linebacker Oren Burks in coverage. A couple of quick-gain passes is more likely than one big catch-and-run against a great tackling Eagles defense, so I like the receptions prop here.

Xavier Worthy OVER 1.5 rushing attempts (+120)

Worthy has 11 rush attempts over the past five games, which coincide with the return of Hollywood Brown to the starting lineup, as well as the shaky performance from running back Isiah Pacheco, who does not look as if he has fully recovered from injury. Worthy gets designed carries on reverses and sweeps, but he also gets targets behind the line of scrimmage. There are a lot of outs here on a plus-money bet.

How the public is betting the game

At ESPN BET, 56.8% of bets and 59.5% of handle are on the Eagles spread, which has not moved from the opener at +1.5, though the underdog side of the spread is juiced to -115 (Chiefs -1.5 is -105).

Philadelphia also has a majority of the bets (55.7%) and handle (57%) on its money line, priced at even money. The surge of Eagles action caused the Kansas City money line to lengthen to -120 from -127 on Monday morning.

The over is an expectedly popular play with the public, attracting 87.2% of the bets with only 82.1% of the handle. The negative split could explain part of the reason why the total has come down to 48.5 (juiced over at -115) from the opener at 49.5. — Doug Greenberg

Most popular non-TD player props (by total bets):

1. Saquon Barkley 100+ rushing yards
2. Patrick Mahomes 2+ passing TDs
3. Patrick Mahomes 200+ passing yards
4. A.J. Brown 60+ receiving yards
5. Jalen Hurts 35+ rushing yards

Mike Clay’s top anytime TD scorers

Clay’s complete game analysis and favorite bets for the game can be found in the Super Bowl Playbook

Who does my algorithm like to score a touchdown Sunday?

Clay’s pick: Jalen Hurts anytime TD (-115)

The gift that keeps on giving, Hurts inexplicably remains around even money (-115) to score a rushing touchdown, something we’ve been taking advantage of all season. Hurts ran for three touchdowns against the Washington Commanders in the NFC Championship Game and has at least one rushing score in 12 of his 17 full games this season, including 10 of his past 12.

Despite sitting out two games and most of Week 18, Hurts finished the regular season with a league-high expected TD total of 14.5 and trailed only Kyren Williams and Josh Jacobs (19 each) in carries inside the opponent’s 5-yard line with 18. The Chiefs gave up four rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks during the regular season (eighth most) and, including the playoffs, have surrendered at least one rushing touchdown in four consecutive games.

Seth Walder’s under-the-radar bets

The Super Bowl offers (many) additional prop betting opportunities. Whether I’m looking at a typical or atypical offering, my philosophy remains the same: I want to take a quantitative approach to pricing props, relying primarily on statistical models to forecast probabilities on my own and comparing those numbers to the odds offered.

It’s the same approach I’ve used all year in my weekly column, often targeting defensive player props — sacks are, by far, my specialty — and alt lines to (ideally) take advantage of less efficient markets. So now let’s turn our attention to those markets for Chiefs-Eagles — and hopefully hit on some winners.

Jalen Carter UNDER 0.5 sacks (-190)

Carter is a good player, but he has 6.5 sacks in 19 games and gets a tough matchup here against Trey Smith, one of the best guards in football. Plus, Patrick Mahomes has always been better than average at sack avoidance. I make the price for Carter’s under -247.

Chiefs UNDER 3.5 team sacks (-190)

Yes, sacks are often driven by quarterbacks and, yes, it’s true that sack avoidance is a weakness for Jalen Hurts. But offensive line plays a big role, and Hurts plays behind one that ranked sixth in pass block win rate this season.

Plus, the spread is tight and the Eagles are a run-heavy team, which reduces opportunities for sacks. And apart from Chris Jones, there’s not a huge sack threat on the Chiefs. George Karlaftis is solid enough as an edge rusher, but he’s far from elite. I make the fair price here -231.

DeVonta Smith 70+ receiving yards (+200)

Smith’s average receiving yards prop line this season is 58. His number for the Super Bowl is 49.5, so I’m buying low. Smith, has yet to clear 55 yards during the Eagles’ playoff run, but he hasn’t been completely silent. Plus, the total on this game is relatively high (48.5), and that should affect the receiving yard forecast. Here’s the kicker: Smith had hit 70-plus yards in the majority of his regular season-games this season. And now we’re getting it at 2-1. If you prefer, my model also sees value in Smith’s head-to-head yardage matchups vs. A.J. Brown (+160) and Xavier Worthy (+110).

Reed Blankenship UNDER 6.5 tackles + assists (-130)

Blankenship’s has a 9% tackle rate against the pass and a 14% rate against the run, both slightly above-average numbers for a safety. But consider those numbers in the context of his Super Bowl opponent; the Chiefs have the second-highest pass rate over expectation (plus 5%), per NFL Next Gen Stats. Those extra pass plays depress our expectation for Blankenship and most Eagles’ tackle rates, especially since the Chiefs are only narrow favorites. My model forecasts Blankenship for 4.9 tackles + assists.

Others to consider:Zack Baun UNDER 10.5 tackles + assists (-125), Tershawn Wharton UNDER 0.5 sacks (-280).

Pamela Maldonado’s in-game betting advice

If history has taught us anything, it’s that we’re in for a battle. With a 1.5-point spread, this matchup seems likely to be tight early, with both teams playing to their strengths. The Eagles will lean on Saquon Barkley, whose explosive-play ability makes him a near-lock to find the end zone. Barkley has been nearly unstoppable near the goal line, and with Jalen Hurts at the helm, the famous tush push probably will be a factor, giving the Eagles easy short-yardage conversions and a potential rushing score.

Another key live betting angle is the total. Barkley has ripped off 54 explosive runs this season, including six touchdown runs of 60-plus yards. If he breaks a big one early, the live total will spike as the market overreacts. The pregame total sits at 48.5, but a quick score could push that number into the mid-50s. If you lean toward the under, that’s your window to grab it at an inflated number. Betting the under after one-off, explosive plays is one way to attack the betting market. The public tends to overreact to a single big moment, assuming it signals a high-scoring affair. But often, defenses adjust, and the game slows back down, creating value on the under.

Philadelphia has been dominant in the first three quarters, but its postseason performances suggest some vulnerability. The Eagles ranked seventh in third-quarter scoring during the regular season (the Chiefs were 28th), but in the playoffs they are even (16-16) with their opponents in that frame. That presents a unique live-betting angle: consider backing the Chiefs in the underdog role during the third quarter, especially if they’re trailing or struggling to find their rhythm.

If the Chiefs find themselves as in-game underdogs heading into the fourth quarter, especially at plus money, that’s an opportunity to jump in. Late in games is when Patrick Mahomes thrives. When the pressure is on and the game demands something special, Mahomes, with Andy Reid dialing up plays, finds ways to make the improbable happen. Whether it’s a scramble on third-and-long, a no-look pass or a game-changing deep shot to Travis Kelce, Mahomes has the tools to turn the game in Kansas City’s favor.

Ultimately, the key to live wagering this Super Bowl is staying disciplined and recognizing market inefficiencies. Chiefs as underdogs? Consider backing them. Explosive plays causing an overreaction in the total? Look to the under. Enjoy the game, stay sharp, and bet smart.

Special props: Tails never fails

Maldonado: The Super Bowl kicks off with the most time-honored, logic-defying, data-proof bet of them all: the coin toss. And if you’re rolling with history, superstition and good old-fashioned fun, there’s only one way to go: Tails never fails. At +100, you’re getting a true 50/50 shot to start the night on a winning note. Forget trends, forget analysis; this is pure “wagertainment” at its finest. A bet before a single snap, before the first commercial, before the chaos begins. Will it define the game? No. Will it set the tone for your night? Absolutely. Flip the coin, ride with tails. Betting is supposed to be fun. Have fun with it.