With 30 of 32 NFL teams eliminated from the playoffs, the 2025 offseason is quickly approaching. New coaching hires are just settling in and free agency is still six weeks away, but we’re getting close to a ton of player movement that will happen around the league via signings, cuts, trades and draft picks.

With that in mind, I took a look at the 2025 quarterback market. Who are the biggest movers and shakers of this offseason? What is the potential fallout from their decisions? Could a passer signing with one team drastically change things for multiple other franchises? And what are the QB-needy franchises’ backup plans?

Unlike in past offseasons, when myriad shoes could have been the first to drop, it seems clear the biggest domino is Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold. He approaches one of the most interesting free agency decisions of the past few years. Once his intentions are clear, the remaining teams looking for QB help will turn to secondary and tertiary options in a thin free agent market, a largely option-less trade pool and a rather poor draft class.

To examine all the quarterbacking dominoes for the next few months, I began with riddling out the Darnold dilemma and saw how things fell from there. Once I sorted out Darnold’s options, I mapped out four potential scenarios for the rest of the QB landscape, with dominoes falling across the league based on where he might end up:

Jump to a section:
Darnold’s situation | Darnold’s suitors
The other QBs potentially available
Darnold to LV | Darnold to PIT
Darnold to NYG | Darnold back to MIN

The Darnold dilemma: What is his market?

If every quarterback who could become available in this cycle does become available, the one most likely to command big free agent money is Darnold. He’s still relatively young, having just turned 27 last summer. His 2024 season with the Vikings was also tremendous, as he threw for 4,319 yards with 35 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions. A conservative estimate places him on a three-year deal worth about $30 million annually — just below Baker Mayfield‘s yearly figure and just above that of Geno Smith.

It’s easy to bristle at hearing that number, given the way Darnold ended the season. His two worst games came in a Week 18 loss to the Lions that kicked Minnesota to the NFC’s 5-seed and then a wild-card round loss to the Rams. It’s all too easy to say that the most recent version of Darnold is the true version of Darnold, and that he should be paid accordingly.

But the league is absolutely desperate for quarterbacks — both generally speaking and specifically in this moment. There just won’t be many desirable free agent or trade options. And if there is a clear slam dunk, run-the-card-to-the-podium No. 1 pick at QB in the draft class, I haven’t seen him yet. Yes, Darnold’s two most recent games were worrisome wilts under bright lights. But of the quarterbacks who are about to become available, only one had a good overall season in 2024, and that player is Darnold.

A three-year, $90 million contract would fall in line with deals signed recently by veteran free agents given an opportunity to hold down a starting job. In 2023, a 31-year-old Jimmy Garoppolo signed a three-year, $72.75 million deal with the Raiders to be their bridge starter, with midround rookie Aidan O’Connell behind him. Garoppolo’s yearly contract value of $24.25 million represented 10.8% of the total salary cap the year it was signed. Remember, at the time, Garoppolo’s value was far from its peak: He had been benched for second-year pro Trey Lance in San Francisco, started 10 games after Lance got hurt and played pretty well before his own injury paved the way for Brock Purdy. He was a player the 49ers were actively looking to replace.

In 2019, a 26-year-old Teddy Bridgewater had a similar season to Garoppolo’s 2022. He stepped in for an injured Drew Brees in New Orleans, started exactly five games and played well enough to get a three-year, $63 million deal out of the Panthers. Again, that yearly contract value of $21 million represented about 10.6% of the 2020 total salary cap when it was signed.

If we call Darnold — who stepped in for injuredJ.J. McCarthy, Minnesota’s No. 10 pick last April — analogous to Bridgewater and Garoppolo, then a three-year deal that pays him a yearly figure around 11% of the 2025 cap would have an average annual value of just under $30 million (assuming a $270 million total salary cap for 2025). Now compare what Darnold did in his season before free agency to what Bridgewater and Garoppolo did in theirs. Statistically, Darnold was about as successful a passer as Bridgewater and Garoppolo were before they hit the market.

Still, $30 million for three years is a conservative estimate. Bridgewater was a late-first-round pick, and Garoppolo was a second-rounder. NFL teams weren’t sprinting to invest in them in 2014, when they were both drafted. Do not underestimate how tethered teams remain to their initial draft grades. The fact that Darnold was the third pick in 2018 — and continues to throw the ball with the sort of spectacular arm talent only ex-No. 3 picks can — makes him a more interesting commodity on the open market. Garoppolo was also older and far more experienced when he hit the market; his ceiling was well discovered at that point. Bridgewater had a substantial injury history. But Darnold still has some mystery (and upside) left to his game.

So a bigger contract is within reason. Derek Carr signed a four-year, $150 million deal with the Saints at 31 years old — after a 2022 season in which he was benched for poor play with the Raiders. Last offseason, a 35-year-old Kirk Cousins signed a four-year, $180 million deal coming off an Achilles injury. Both quarterbacks were good for far longer than Darnold has been, but both were also much older than Darnold. And it isn’t hard to argue that Darnold’s next four years will be equal to that of Carr or Cousins when they signed their respective deals.

It is important to note the structure of these deals, too. Cousins’ contract was functionally a two-year, $100 million deal with nearly no guaranteed money in the final two years. And before the Saints started restructuring his contract, Carr had only $60 million guaranteed at signing. Like Cousins’ deal, Carr’s contract had almost no guaranteed money after the first two years. While the idea of signing Darnold to a four-year, $140 million deal seems preposterous, I wouldn’t be surprised to see those figures at all. Functionally that ends up playing out more like a two-year, $70 million contract with a couple of team options attached behind it if Darnold plays well.

With this range of Darnold’s free agent market in mind — a three-, maybe four-year deal worth $30 million to $40 million per year — the next question becomes which team will give it to him.

Darnold’s potential suitors

Las Vegas Raiders

With $73.2 million in projected cap space for 2025, the Raiders will have the cash on hand to sign Darnold to a front-loaded deal — perhaps one reported as a four-year contract but really built more like a two-year trial. Las Vegas just tried its hand at the free agent quarterback market, having signed Gardner Minshew to a two-year, $25 million deal last offseason. That was a swing and a miss, but the decision-makers from that team — Antonio Pierce and Tom Telesco — have been replaced by new brass. John Spytek is in as general manager, and Pete Carroll is the new head coach.

Carroll participated in the reclamation of perceived bust Geno Smith in Seattle. Of course, he also developed midround rookie Russell Wilson into a franchise quarterback — but remember, the Seahawks had signed Matt Flynn in free agency that year, too. Spytek comes from Tampa Bay, where Darnold’s fellow 2018 draftee Baker Mayfield launched a successful career recovery and signed a three-year, $100 million extension (that was functionally a one-year deal with a couple of team options).

The Raiders seem like the right sort of team to kick the tires on Darnold’s 2024 season as a sign of things to come, trusting in Carroll to help the young and easily flustered passer learn how to play in postseason conditions.

Pittsburgh Steelers

While I would usually dismiss the idea of Mike Tomlin signing a free agent quarterback to a significant contract out of hand, desperate times might elicit desperate measures. Once again, Pittsburgh is out of range to draft a franchise passer in April, having made the playoffs and precluded itself from a top-10 pick. Will the Steelers look to execute a big trade up in this draft class? I highly doubt it. What about hanging tight at No. 21 and selecting someone the rest of the league passed on? Well, that didn’t work well with Kenny Pickett the last time around.

Pittsburgh has two free agent signal-callers scheduled to leave the building (Russell Wilson and Justin Fields), so Pittsburgh’s participation in the Darnold market is conditional on having an open job. Steelers owner and president Art Rooney II said Monday, “My preference would be to sign one of them,” referring to Wilson and Fields. But I wouldn’t rule anything out for Pittsburgh anymore.

New York Giants

While New York fans will permit nothing but Shedeur Sanders jersey swaps for the next two months, it must be said: The Giants pick No. 3 in the draft, not first. If the Titans (No. 1) or Browns (No. 2) — both of whom have tenable quarterback situations at best — decide to take the prospect(s) the Giants prefer, New York will be painted into a corner. By most estimations, this is charitably a two-QB race at the top of the class between Colorado’s Sanders and Miami’s Cam Ward, and even then, I’m not convinced either is a shoe-in for a top-five pick.

So the Giants must have some viable free agent starter before the draft comes around in April. That isn’t Drew Lock, who is a free agent this offseason. Will coach Brian Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen — who have been informed by ownership that their jobs are in jeopardy — place their eggs in a Jarrett Stidham basket? Throw their lot in with Andy Dalton? Desperation should drive the Giants to the Darnold market. Darnold plus a highly drafted rookie passer would give Daboll and Schoen the most routes to a job-saving performance in 2025.

Minnesota Vikings

The final (but also the first) team that must be considered significant in the Darnold sweepstakes is the home team. The Vikings are clearly gung-ho about McCarthy. They drafted him with the 10th pick to become their franchise quarterback. He suffered a torn meniscus in training camp, which is dreadful luck, but they’re enthusiastic about his recovery and prognosis. They believe he can be their guy.

But smart teams don’t let quarterbacks who just performed well over a 14-win season leave the building easily. General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, who comes from an analytics background, primed coach Kevin O’Connell on the very possibility of Darnold playing his way into a multiyear contract before the 2024 season even began.

“I always ask Kevin [O’Connell] before the season starts, ‘Hey, what information would you need to kind of change your mind?'” Adofo-Mensah said. “And to say it beforehand so that you’re not kind of whipped around with what potentially could happen. And we had those conversations beforehand. We thought there was a chance Sam Darnold could play at a high level.”

If the Vikings had gotten the season they just got from Darnold — 14 wins, a few clutch performances and a collapse under postseason pressure — instead out of McCarthy, they’d be over the moon right now with their rookie quarterback. That’s the sort of information that can change a staff’s mind: Minnesota can be in contention for the No. 1 seed in the conference with this guy at quarterback.

Adofo-Mensah, who clearly always believes in having dart throws at QB (see the midseason signing of Daniel Jones), could choose to enter 2025 with all of his chips on the McCarthy bet. That means McCarthy will fully recover from his meniscus injury and also play well at the NFL level — something that is never certain with any rookie. But Adofo-Mensah could also enter the 2025 season with a second dice roll at the position, re-signing Darnold on a multiyear deal.

If Darnold’s market indeed comes in near $40 million per year, the Vikings will likely get priced out as they address other positions. But if Darnold wants to stay in the O’Connell offense and Minnesota can get him at a lower figure, don’t be surprised to see it happen. Plus, Darnold’s contract would become a valuable trade asset if McCarthy is great — and a valuable escape hatch if McCarthy is shaky. This approach is far more preferable than the franchise tag, which would hit the Vikings for $41 million against the 2025 cap and be far more difficult to trade.

Which QB move comes next?

Darnold is the cream of this free agency crop by both name and relative value. Besides Darnold, the only upcoming free agents who started multiple games this season are Wilson, Fields, Jones, Lock, Dalton, Mason Rudolph, Jacoby Brissett and Cooper Rush. Not exactly a group you’re running to pay. There are three veteran names who might join the (semi) open market, though.

The first is Kirk Cousins, who was ousted from the Falcons’ starting job in December. The 36-year-old clearly never returned to form following an Achilles injury. Will another year removed from the injury bring him back to fighting shape? The Falcons reportedly plan to release Cousins before the start of the 2025 league year to avoid a $10 million roster bonus that would kick in for 2026. That would make Cousins’ contract a failed two-year, $90 million endeavor instead of a two-year, $100 million one — a small consolation. Someone will sign Cousins — perhaps behind a young passer — on the off chance his body bounces back after another offseason.

While we’re on the topic of aging passers with bad Achilles, Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers is in an interesting contractual quagmire. The old Jets regime structured Rodgers’ deal to push as much money into future years as possible. As such, Rodgers had a signing bonus of $35 million (paid out in 2023 but prorated against the cap from 2023 to 2027), an additional option bonus of $35 million (prorated from 2024 to 2028) and a third option bonus for another $35 million (prorated from 2025 to 2029).

That last option bonus is due if and only if Rodgers is back for the 2025 season. While Rodgers’ 2025 cap hit might look small at $23.5 million, a whopping $63 million in dead cap money accelerates onto the 2026 balance sheet when Rodgers’ deal expires after 2025. It would cost the Jets over $90 million to keep Rodgers next season, whereas cutting him before the 2025 season would cost them only $49 million overall.

It’s very unlikely Rodgers remains a Jet on his current deal. The contract would have to be totally reimagined. Otherwise, Rodgers would need to be released and/or traded — at which point he would become a 43-year-old free agent who did not play well at his last stop despite the entire team being catered to his needs.

The final potential addition to the 2025 free agent pool is Saints quarterback Derek Carr. Because the Saints do not yet have a head coach, it’s not easy to figure out the approach for Carr, who represents an astonishing $51.5 million cap hit in the 2025 season — fourth highest in the league. If the Saints desperately need cap relief, they can cut (or trade) Carr and designate him a post-June 1 transaction, borrowing from 2026 cap to create 2025 relief.

This is unlikely, as the Saints will probably stop borrowing to detox their cap and begin recreating a financially healthy team. (They are projected to have minus-$70.6 million in cap space in 2025, per Roster Management System.) But it is not impossible and bears mention here. Now let’s map out some dominoes for all these QBs based on what happens with Darnold.

Scenario No. 1: If Darnold goes to the Raiders

… then Cousins goes to the Steelers …

Don’t sleep on the Steelers as a good landing spot for Cousins, who can follow the Arthur Smith/Ryan Tannehill plan of never, ever leaving the pocket. Cousins would be better than Wilson (I think?) and good for receiver George Pickens, who is a much better middle-of-the-field receiver than most people think.

… and Rodgers goes to the Titans …

I like Rodgers to the Titans. Coach Brian Callahan, who cut his teeth with Peyton Manning before coaching Joe Burrow, seems like the sort of guy to fall for Rodgers’ mental ability, even if the physical ability no longer matches it. Rodgers could be the 1A to Will Levis‘ 1B entering camp as Tennessee looks to trade the top overall selection. (To be clear, I do not think this would work well for the Titans.)

… and Wilson goes to the Jets …

New Jets general manager Darren Mougey was with the Broncos when they executed the big trade for Wilson. Either Mougey is completely out on Wilson after that stint in Denver and this isn’t happening, or he still harbors some belief in him — meaning Wilson could really be an option. We’ll learn more as the offseason rumor mill starts up, but this is a connection to watch as the Jets search for stopgap solutions while they recover from Rodgers’ cap devastation.

… and the Browns draft Ward.

Given what I’ve seen from the top two passers in the draft class, I very much expect Ward to be drafted before Sanders. The Browns will draft a quarterback as their first legitimate escape attempt from the Deshaun Watsoncontract — an escape that might be easier now because of the non-football nature of Watson’s Achilles reinjury.

Scenario No. 2: If Darnold goes to the Steelers

… then Rodgers and Wilson both go to the Raiders …

I’m not totally sure I buy the idea that Wilson and Pete Carroll would welcome a reunion in Las Vegas, but it would be great for content, so I’ll allow it here. Wilson was not enough of a bridge QB for the Steelers this season, and given his below-average caliber of play, he should not be enough for the Raiders either. With Rodgers and Wilson on one-year deals, though, the likelihood for functional quarterbacking doubles (and the potential for preposterous locker room hijinks increases by a factor of 10).

… and Fields goes to the Giants …

Fields’ free agency won’t be eventful, though he’s still a young player and I’d be kicking the tires on him. Is there a Darnold-esque ascension in him as he gets another year removed from Chicago? The Giants, who loved the QB run game with Jones, seem like a good spot for Fields to spend some time as QB2. And hey, if that rookie the Giants draft isn’t ready to start the season … you never know!

… and the Titans actually stay at No. 1 and draft a quarterback.

While new Titans general manager Mike Borgonzi made it clear his team is willing to trade the top selection or pass on a quarterback outright, it remains true that the Titans very much need a quarterback. Teams that have the first pick and need a QB end up drafting one nine out of 10 times. Again, to me that player is Ward. (But this class isn’t nearly good enough to lock any passer into the top pick in late January.)

Scenario No. 3: If Darnold goes to the Giants

… then Rodgers goes to the Colts …

If there’s a sleeper team to become suddenly desperate for immediate quarterback help, it’s the Colts. General manager Chris Ballard and coach Shane Steichen held on to their jobs, but without a big season in 2025, they could find themselves in hot water again. Rodgers is the splashiest name on the market and completely different stylistically from incumbent Anthony Richardson, which seems to be what the Colts want in their QB2. I’d bet good money that Steichen can design a solid offense around Rodgers — if Rodgers is willing to fit into the system.

… and the Jets trade up to the No. 1 pick …

If the Titans are really willing to do business with the top selection, then their best suitors are likely the Jets (No. 7) and Raiders (No. 6). The Steelers (No. 21) are too far back and would have to trade up into the low teens before they could even start calling the Titans.

Of those two teams, I’d expect the Jets to be more aggressive than the Raiders, because Las Vegas has far more cap space to solve its problems in free agency than the Jets. A trade from No. 7 to No. 1 might go pretty cheap in a draft like this, too. Could the Jets include one of their young stars (Breece Hall, I’m looking at you) like the Panthers did when they sent DJ Moore to the Bears to move from No. 9 to No. 1 a few years ago?

… and the Steelers re-sign both Wilson and Fields …

Tell me you can’t see this coming. Pittsburgh, clearly in need of some team-building magic, just calmly runs it back with the same options they had in 2024. Maybe they play Fields a little more. Maybe they add a wide receiver. Who knows? They’ll start the season 9-1, finish 12-5 and get ousted in the wild-card round again.

… and Dalton goes to the Titans.

Does Brian Callahan pursue a reunion with Dalton? The two spent a season together in Cincinnati before Burrow was drafted, and while that season was far from Dalton’s best, I imagine Callahan appreciates the way Dalton sees the game. In the worlds in which the Titans trade out of the top pick, they are likely passing on the rookie quarterback class altogether. So Dalton would compete in a camp battle with Levis while the Titans tread water and wait for the 2026 quarterback class to offer salvation.

Scenario No. 4: If Darnold stays with the Vikings

… then the Steelers trade for Carr …

While the most likely outcome is that Darnold gets a big deal from someone else in free agency, I remain far less confident than public perception that he gets out of Minnesota. And if he stays, things could get wonky, fast. In Darnold’s absence, I could see the trade market getting hot for a player like Carr, the next-best option for two-to-three years of acceptable play. The Steelers and coach Mike Tomlin need that plug-and-play fix at quarterback to finally find some postseason wins before seats start to get too hot. Could they work with the Saints to get New Orleans some cap relief in return for Carr’s services? I think it’s doable.

… and Levis goes to the Raiders …

If the Raiders elect to take a patient, multiyear approach to their rebuild, then I’d imagine Spytek would take a Mayfield-ian gamble at the position by finding a quarterback who was drafted with an early-round pick but never developed to see if his coaching staff can get more out of him. Levis doesn’t entirely fit the bill, as he was taken 32 picks later than Mayfield and is much younger now than Mayfield was when the Bucs signed him. But Levis is a physical competitor whose development is stuck in neutral.

If the Titans intend to draft a quarterback with the top pick, why not try to snag an early-Day 3 selection for Levis while his value is still decent?

… and Jameis Winston goes to the Jets …

If and when the Jets move on from Rodgers, their quarterback options are pretty bare. They are not in a great position to draft one and lack enough cap space to sign one. A good stopgap is Winston, the haphazard but ever entertaining veteran who most recently was losing shootouts for the Browns. Winston was in New Orleans in 2020 with Aaron Glenn — now the Jets’ coach — so there’s some familiarity there.

… and Cousins goes to the Browns …

Speaking of familiarity, if Cousins ends up the odd man out in a rather active trade market, then I could see him running to Cleveland to reunite with Kevin Stefanski, who coached him for two seasons in Minnesota. Watson is unlikely to be ready for the 2025 season, and the Browns obviously do not want to play him even if he is physically ready. Cousins could hold the job while the Browns recover financially, play in an offense familiar to him and maybe look good enough to get one final payday somewhere.

… and Jones goes to the Colts.

The biggest domino of them all! Jones, currently squirreled away on the Vikings’ roster as QB3, is presumed to be the Vikings’ new veteran bridge when Darnold leaves in free agency. But what if Darnold stays?

Jones would hit the market and likely have decent interest. I like him best for the Colts, and the Colts best for him, as he matches well with Richardson. They have very similar play styles, and Jones actually had a season of NFL success (2022) when he was a run-heavy quarterback who also dinked and dunked in a spread, run-pass option passing game. Jones can help Richardson develop and even take his job, which is exactly what you want in a veteran QB2 behind a shaky, young QB1.