2025 NFL free agency: Projecting one signing for every team
NFL free agency is right around the corner, which means teams are already thinking about players they want to add to their rosters. The franchise tag deadline is March 4, and the free agency chaos will begin March 10. So which unrestricted free agents are the best match for each of the 32 teams?
Below, I suggested one important free agent signing for each franchise. I set myself a couple of rules for this exercise. I picked only one free agent per team, and only one team per free agent. I also didn’t assign any player to return to his current team, even on the franchise tag.
To explain moves for several teams, I used my DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) metric, which takes every play during the season and compares it to a baseline adjusted for situation and opponent.
Let’s get started with who the Bills could add to improve in 2025:
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills
WR Hollywood Brown (KC)
I originally had Tee Higgins here. He would be the perfect solution to Buffalo’s need for a veteran outside wide receiver, but Cincinnati will likely give him the franchise tag if it can’t work out a long-term deal. It’s hard to find another receiver for the Bills. Amari Cooper was there in 2024, there’s bad blood with Stefon Diggs and it’s hard to guess how much DeAndre Hopkins has left. The Bills need someone fast who can stretch the field while Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid work underneath. The best bet to fit that skill set is Brown.
Unfortunately, he is coming off a season where a preseason injury limited him to just two regular-season games. He’ll be four years removed from his lone 1,000-yard season in 2021, and he’s always mixed deep shots with screens, so he’s never had a particularly impressive yards per reception average. Still, it makes sense for the Bills to take a chance on Brown since he’s probably the best deep outside receiver on the market.
Miami Dolphins
G Teven Jenkins (CHI)
Practically every guard on the Miami roster is a free agent — Robert Jones, Isaiah Wynn, and Liam Eichenberg — so why not upgrade the position with a bright young talent like Jenkins? He is finally coming into this own at guard after starting off as a tackle and struggling with injuries early in his career. This is more of a bet on potential than production so far, as Jenkins had an average pass block win rate (92.0%) and a slightly below-average run block win rate (69.3%) this past season. But the soon-to-be 27-year-old has the talent to move men off the ball in the running game.
New England Patriots
OT Ronnie Stanley (BAL)
The Patriots pretty much need everything except a quarterback, but the offensive line issues stood out this past season. They finished dead last in run block win rate (67.3%), and only the Bengals finished worse in pass block win rate (50.1%). New England will need to improve the offensive line with both free-agent signings and draft picks, and Stanley should be its first move.
Stanley had a down season in 2023 but rebounded in 2024, ranking 12th in pass block win rate. According to Roster Management System, no team has more cap space than the Patriots, so they can offer Stanley a big contract. There might be some worry because he’ll be 31, but there aren’t really good young tackles on the market except for Jedrick Wills Jr., who has major injury questions.
New York Jets
QB Sam Darnold (MIN)
The idea seems ridiculous. Darnold going back to the Jets — the organization that nearly destroyed his career? But the difficulty with placing Darnold on a new team is that you want to match him with a franchise where the offensive coordinator will run an offense similar to what Kevin O’Connell had for him in Minnesota. That’s what allowed Darnold to finally flourish, overcome his early-career bust status and rank 14th with a 60.4 QBR in 2024.
Although he doesn’t come off the Sean McVay/Kyle Shanahan tree, Jets coordinator Tanner Engstrand seems like a good match because of the way the Lions used under-center play-action when Engstrand was working under Ben Johnson. The Vikings had the quarterback under center 34% of the time this past season, while the Lions were at 36%. Perhaps a new coaching staff could guide Darnold and the Jets to the playoffs — just not quite in the way fans expected when the Jets took him No. 3 overall in 2018.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens
CB Byron Murphy Jr. (MIN)
Free agent Brandon Stephens was the weakest of Baltimore’s top three cornerbacks this past season and is hitting free agency, so the Ravens are in a prime position to improve their pass coverage. Unfortunately, they are low in cap space and may not be able to snag top cornerbacks like D.J. Reed or Charvarius Ward.
Murphy might come a bit cheaper because he wasn’t seen as a star cornerback until his breakout season in 2024. Murphy ranked fifth in coverage DVOA among qualified corners and had six interceptions with 14 passes defensed. Cornerback stats are notoriously inconsistent, so we can’t count on Murphy to have similar success in 2025, but he’s a quality veteran. He also would fit a Ravens defense that plays a mix of man and zone defenses; Minnesota played zone 69% this past season — the fourth-highest mark — although Murphy also excelled in man coverage.
Cincinnati Bengals
G Kevin Zeitler (DET)
Cordell Volson (87.7%) and Alex Cappa (85.2%) ranked 64th and 67th, respectively, in pass block win rate out of 67 qualifying guards — not good! Zeitler, on the other hand, ranked sixth with a 94.4% pass block win rate. He was also above average in run block win rate (72%).
Yes, Zeitler is 35 years old, but the Bengals are trying to make the Super Bowl right now and a short-term contract with an older quality lineman makes a lot of sense. Let’s get quarterback Joe Burrow some help!
Cleveland Browns
QB Justin Fields (PIT)
The Browns and the Giants are in similar situations regarding the quarterback position. Yes, Cleveland has Deshaun Watson, but he hasn’t played well in the past couple seasons and will require additional recovery time after re-tearing his Achilles tendon. But both the Browns and the Giants need to decide whether they want to draft a quarterback, sign a veteran or do both. Highly drafted quarterbacks can benefit from veteran backups, so let’s have the Browns bring one in.
Fields had 50.8 QBR this past season to Pittsburgh teammate Russell Wilson‘s 51.3, but the Browns’ need the upside of the soon-to-be 26-year-old Fields more than the floor of the 36-year-old Wilson. If Fields has to start over a rookie, his mobility would open up lanes for the running backs. The Browns could also build up other positions through the draft, giving Fields a season to show he can build on his 2024 improvement after his first three seasons in Chicago went poorly.
Pittsburgh Steelers
CB D.J. Reed (NYJ)
What’s the right match for Reed, who is considered by many to be the best veteran corner available? The Steelers seem to be a great match. They have a glaring need with Donte Jackson likely hitting free agency and rank among the top 10 teams in salary cap space. Pittsburgh was also 12th in using zone and 21st in using man this past season which would benefit the versatile Reed. He had an off season in 2024, according to my coverage DVOA metric, but he was above average in 2023 and one of the league’s best cornerbacks in terms of yards per target in 2022.
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans
C Drew Dalman (ATL)
The Houston interior offensive line completely imploded in 2024, and incumbent starting center Juice Scruggs was near the bottom of the league with an 89.8% pass block win rate. Dalman would stabilize the middle of that line and will turn 27 next season. He started only nine games this past season because of an ankle injury but had a 95.1% pass block win rate when healthy. In 2023, his 94.0% PBWR ranked 10th among qualified centers. Dalman also fits a Houston running game that uses a lot of outside zone; no offense ran more outside zone than Atlanta this past season.
Indianapolis Colts
G Mekhi Becton (PHI)
Becton, a former top pick by the Jets as a tackle, rejuvenated his career after a move to right guard for the Super Bowl champion Eagles. The important skill for the 6-foot-7, 363-pound guard is run blocking, where he could create holes for lead back Jonathan Taylor. Becton ranked 24th in run block win rate among guards at 72.0%. He was average in pass block win rate at 91.8%, which won’t be a problem with quarterback Anthony Richardson.
Jacksonville Jaguars
CB Mike Hilton (CIN)
Hilton has always been special as a playmaker in the slot. He can play coverage, defend the run and blitz. For example, he made his average run tackle after a gain of just 2.6 yards this past season, the best figure for any cornerback with at least 20 run tackles. In addition, 17 of his 35 tackles after a pass reception stopped the receiver short of a successful gain; only Dru Phillips had a better rate among cornerbacks. Hilton would be a useful playmaker to move around in Anthony Campanile’s new defense.
Tennessee Titans
DL Milton Williams (PHI)
Williams has been a quietly effective interior defensive lineman for the Eagles over the past four seasons, but he was not so quiet in Super Bowl LIX. He had four tackles, two sacks and one quarterback hit.
Williams had 5.0 sacks and ranked sixth in pass rush win rate (12.8%) among interior linemen in 2024. The defensive line is the strength of the Titans’ defense, and Williams would slot right in next to Jeffery Simmons and T’Vondre Sweat.
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos
RB Aaron Jones (MIN)
The lesson of Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry‘s success in 2024 is running backs need good offensive lines to thrive. Well, Denver has that offensive line but now it needs the running back. The Broncos finished No. 1 in run block win rate in 2024, yet finished only 24th in run DVOA.
Enter Jones. Yes, you should be a little bit afraid of a running back above age 30, but Jones still ran for 1,138 yards this past season with a 4.5 yards per carry average. He was above average in NFL Next Gen Stats’ rushing yards over expectation metric. In addition, Jones’ skill as a receiver fits well. The Broncos ranked fifth in targets to running backs this past season, yet ranked only 26th out of 32 teams in receiving DVOA by backs.
Kansas City Chiefs
WR Stefon Diggs (BUF)
With a number of free agent wide receivers ready to depart, the Chiefs need a veteran who can play on the outside opposite Xavier Worthy after Rashee Rice returns to the slot. Diggs should be recovered for the start of the 2025 season after suffering a torn ACL in Week 8. He had a positive DVOA for the Texans before his injury and was on pace for another 1,000-yard season.
Las Vegas Raiders
S Jevon Holland (MIA)
The Raiders have a lot of impending free agents on defense, including starting safeties Tre’von Moehrig and Marcus Epps. But the Raiders also have a lot of cap space to go out and spend on better players.
Holland had only 62 tackles in 2024, but he had 74 in just 12 games in 2023 and 96 in 2022. He’s going to be only 25 next season and could easily backstop the Raiders’ pass defense for a few seasons.
Los Angeles Chargers
WR DeAndre Hopkins (KC)
Ladd McConkey had a special rookie season as the Chargers’ slot receiver, but quarterback Justin Herbert could still use a real No. 1 outside receiver. The question might be how much Hopkins has left at age 33 after he sort of disappeared for the Chiefs in the playoffs.
Hopkins had a career-low average of 10.9 yards per reception this past season. However, he was efficient this past season by receiving DVOA, ranking 39th out of 91 qualifying receivers (that’s better than Stefon Diggs, Amari Cooper and Keenan Allen). Hopkins isn’t going back to the 1,000-yard seasons he had in his prime, but he can still serve as a mentor and contributing starter in the Chargers’ offense.
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys
LB Nick Bolton (KC)
Soon-to-be free agent Eric Kendricks is 33 years old, so Dallas could use a significant, younger upgrade in the middle of their defense. They need a true 4-3 middle linebacker who can be a leader on and off the field. There’s no better candidate than two-time Super Bowl champion Bolton.
I don’t need to recite statistics here, although Bolton led the Chiefs by being involved in 13.3% of defensive plays this past season. Simply listen to what Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has said about Bolton. He told Sports Illustrated that Bolton was one of the most cerebral players he’s coached and referred to him as the “Patrick Mahomes” of Kansas City’s defense.
New York Giants
QB Russell Wilson (PIT)
In the Cleveland section, I noted that both the Browns and Giants have similar quarterback situations. While Justin Fields makes more sense for the Browns, Wilson is a better fit for the Giants given that their coach and front office likely can’t have another 3-14 season and keep their jobs.
Wilson, who had 2,482 passing yards in 11 starts, can still play at a reasonable level and would provide a higher floor that the Giants can build upon with improvements at other positions. Coach Brian Daboll is a smart offensive mind who should be able to scheme around the limitations of Wilson’s aging skill set.
Philadelphia Eagles
EDGE Khalil Mack (LAC)
If Josh Sweat leaves and Brandon Graham retires, the Eagles are going to need some pass rush help. This seems like the perfect place for a well-regarded veteran to chase a championship ring, so let’s put the 34-year-old Mack here.
There’s no question that Mack had a down season in 2024, despite making another Pro Bowl. He dropped from 17.0 to 6.0 sacks and his pass rush win rate dropped slightly from 13.8% to 13.0%. He had 53 pressures in 2023 but 41 pressures in 2024. Despite these drops, there’s still a lot of pass-rushing talent here, and the Eagles can use Mack as more of a rotational, targeted player.
Washington Commanders
WR Chris Godwin (TB)
Terry McLaurin is one of the best outside wide receivers in the NFL, but most of Washington’s receivers are free agents in 2025. Only McLaurin and 2024 third-round pick Luke McCaffrey remain right now. The Commanders could really use a strong slot receiver who could work underneath, and that’s where Godwin comes in.
He had 576 yards and five touchdowns in seven games this past season before he suffered an left ankle injury. He ranked fifth out of all qualifying wide receivers in the ESPN receiver tracking metrics. Before that, he was coming off three straight 1,000-yard campaigns. Opponents couldn’t double both Godwin and McLaurin, and that would make quarterback Jayden Daniels‘ life a lot easier.
NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears
G Will Fries (IND)
The entire interior of Chicago’s offensive line will be leaving in free agency, so let’s beef up quarterback Caleb Williams‘ pass protection. Fries will be just 27 years old this season, and he’s playing his best ball.
In the five games he played in before he suffered a season-ending leg injury, he posted career bests in both pass block win rate (92.4%) and run block win rate (74.3%). Fries ranked 37th with a 90.9% pass block win rate and had a league-average 70.3% run block win rate in 2023.
Detroit Lions
DL Osa Odighizuwa (DAL)
After this past season’s injury cascade, the Lions just need to load up on as many good defensive players as possible. As a high-motor pass-rusher on the inside, Odighizuwa could replace the departing Levi Onwuzurike and rotate with Alim McNeill up front. He had career highs this past season with 4.5 sacks and 33 pressures. The latter was tied for second among interior linemen.
Green Bay Packers
CB Rasul Douglas (BUF)
Douglas spent a couple seasons as an important part of the Packers’ defense before he was traded to Buffalo in the middle of the 2023 season. So how about a reunion that’s also a scheme fit (the Packers and Bills were two of the top teams in frequency of zone coverage in 2024)?
Douglas was slightly below average in my coverage DVOA metric this past season, but he ranked third in the league in 2023 among qualifying cornerbacks. He had only five passes defensed in 2024 but had at least 13 in each of the three previous seasons. It’s likely Douglas can rebound in 2025 and contribute to Green Bay’s secondary depth.
Minnesota Vikings
CB Charvarius Ward (SF)
The Vikings will likely lose both of their outside cornerbacks — Byron Murphy Jr. and Stephon Gilmore — in free agency. Ward makes for a good replacement. He’s solid in both man and zone coverage, and the 49ers played more zone this past season while the Vikings play a lot of zone behind Brian Flores’ blitz packages.
Ward had a below-average coverage DVOA in 12 games in 2024 with only seven passes defensed. But in 2023, he ranked 26th in coverage DVOA, led the NFL with 23 passes defensed and had five interceptions. He’s still just 29, so there are a couple more seasons of prime performance left for him.
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons
EDGE Malcolm Koonce (LV)
The Falcons ranked 27th in pass rush win rate (34.1%) this past season and three of their top four edge rushers are free agents, so Atlanta’s biggest need is pretty obvious. There may be hesitation to go back to a veteran after Matthew Judon was a bit of a disappointment — 5.5 sacks and 17 pressures — this past season. So instead of Haason Reddick or Khalil Mack, let’s suggest Koonce, the Raiders’ 2021 third-round pick who turns 27 in June.
Koonce lost the entire 2024 season to a knee injury, but he had 8.0 sacks and 29 pressures in 2023. His 17.5% pass rush win rate ranked 22nd among qualifying edge rushers, just below teammate Maxx Crosby. Koonce could team with Arnold Ebiketie to give the Falcons a younger and stronger pass rush off the edge.
Carolina Panthers
LB Zack Baun (PHI)
The Panthers finished dead last in defensive DVOA, so why not sign this past season’s best defensive playmaker? Baun, who was barely used as an edge rusher for New Orleans, was a revelation as an off-ball linebacker with the Eagles in 2024.
Baun was a first-team All-Pro and finished fifth in the Defensive Player of the Year balloting. He led the league with 34 defeats, a stat that counts big plays including turnovers, and registered 11 tackles for loss. He would easily slot in as an inside linebacker next to Josey Jewell and become the focus of the entire Panthers’ defense.
New Orleans Saints
EDGE Haason Reddick (NYJ)
The problem with naming a good free agent here is that the Saints have no money. This would be the right place for a player who had a lost 2024 to sign a one-year “prove it” contract which could lead to more money in 2026. So how about Reddick?
Reddick held out for the first part of this past season after getting traded to the Jets. When he came back, he started only two games and had just one sack. New Orleans would be an interesting match for Reddick because he’s never played with his hand in the dirt, and the Saints are nominally a 4-3 defense. But Reddick needs to prove he can still be the player who had at least 11 sacks in each four consecutive seasons from 2020 to 2023. New Orleans is a good place to do that.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
EDGE Josh Sweat (PHI)
Although the Buccaneers were a surprising 11th in pass rush win rate (41.7%) this past season, they’re probably losing several edge rushers to free agency, including Anthony Nelson and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka. Enter Sweat, fresh off an impressive Super Bowl LIX performance. He had six tackles, three quarterback hits and 2.5 sacks.
Sweat also had eight sacks during the regular season and 33 pressures. He will be 28 next season, so he’s right in the prime of his career.
NFC WEST
Arizona Cardinals
LB Dre Greenlaw (SF)
Arizona’s 2024 defense was close to league average once you adjusted for its difficult schedule. In DVOA, it ranked 15th against the pass and 19th against the run. That mediocrity also means the Cardinals could use help almost anywhere. However, the biggest hole on the defensive depth chart is at off-ball linebacker, where Mack Wilson Sr. might not necessarily be starting-quality and Kyzir White is hitting free agency.
Greenlaw would give the Cardinals someone who is equally strong against the run and the pass. He’s an experienced defender who played an important role in leading San Francisco to Super Bowl LVIII — he had 120 total tackles, four passes defensed and 1.5 sacks that season. Greenlaw suffered an Achilles tear in the Super Bowl loss, but he should be closer to 100% than he was this past season. As an added bonus, signing Greenlaw would steal from a division rival.
Los Angeles Rams
LB Robert Spillane (LV)
The Rams don’t spend money on off-ball linebackers. But why not try a new strategy? Spillane is a somewhat unknown, very underrated linebacker who can play well against both the run and the pass. He was involved in 19.2% of Las Vegas’ defensive plays this past season, third in the NFL behind Budda Baker and Zaire Franklin. Spillane was sixth in the NFL with 29 defeats, a stat that counts big plays including turnovers, and was also one of the top linebackers in my coverage DVOA metric. Both Troy Reeder and Christian Rozeboom are free agents, so the Rams can easily bring in Spillane and then re-sign either Reeder or Rozeboom to play next to him.
San Francisco 49ers
CB Asante Samuel Jr. (LAC)
Veteran cornerback Charvarius Ward is likely leaving, along with depth cornerbacks Isaac Yiadom and Rock Ya-Sin. The 49ers need to get younger at an important position, and Samuel would help them do that. He will be just 26 next season and is coming off a season where he played only four games due to a shoulder injury. However, he had above-average coverage DVOA in his limited time after a good season in 2022 and a down season in 2023. Samuel excels in zone coverage and has strong ball skills, which fits what the 49ers’ defense wants to do on the back end.
Seattle Seahawks
FB Patrick Ricard (BAL)
Wait a minute, a fullback? Seriously? Well, Ricard may be the best fullback in the game right now. He was chosen first-team All-Pro in 2024 and has made the Pro Bowl in five of the past six seasons. We know that new coordinator Klint Kubiak wants to use a true fullback in his offense, so why not bring in the best and let Ricard make holes for Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet?
