NFL free agency came and went in a blink. Sure, it’s technically still happening, but the bulk of the action happened in the early part of last week. So with most of the noteworthy signings and trades complete, and most of this offseason’s big money handed out, it’s time for some free agency overreactions.

Did your team “win the offseason?” Did your team blow it by missing out on the big defensive signings? Has anything that happened in the past week or so significantly altered the landscape of the 2025 NFL season?

The answer to all of these questions is probably “no.” But that’s the point of overreactions, isn’t it? We’re all probably way too worked up over what has been going on with these teams and players over the course of the past week. So let’s determine what you should actually be worried about and what’s just an overreaction.

Jump to:
Chiefs won’t win the AFC West?
Vikings will win the NFC North?
Falcons’ QB mishandling continues?
Terrible year to need a QB?
49ers’ Super Bowl window is closed?

The Chiefs’ nine-year AFC West division title streak will end this season

Kansas City franchise-tagged guard Trey Smith, re-signed receiver Hollywood Brown and running back Kareem Hunt, and then added cornerback Kristian Fulton, running back Elijah Mitchell and backup quarterback Gardner Minshew. But the Chiefs also traded awayJoe Thuney, who has been a reliable starting guard for them and kind of saved their season by moving to left tackle in December.

And once Ronnie Stanleyre-signed with Baltimore, the top left tackle option was off the market, leaving the Chiefs to address their biggest weakness by signingJaylon Moore. He has been a backup for most of his career in San Francisco (five starts last season) but currently projects at the Chiefs’ starting left tackle spot. It could work out, but it comes with a fair bit of risk. Moore had an 81.1% pass block win rate in 2024, which would have ranked 65th among tackles had he qualified.

Meanwhile, the Raiders hired new coach Pete Carroll and upgraded at quarterback with Geno Smith, the Broncos’ already excellent defense looks even better thanks to their additions (Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga) and the Chargers brought inMekhi Becton to beef up the trenches (just the way you’d expect from a Jim Harbaugh team). The rest of the division sure looks like it got better — but the Chiefs don’t appear like they did at all.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

Come on, folks. We’ve done this before, and we know how it has worked out. For all of their problems and for as bad as they looked in the Super Bowl, the Chiefs still went 15-2 in the 2024 regular season and got back to the big game for the third year in a row. Over the past five seasons, Kansas City has gone 24-6 against AFC West opponents.

The bones are good. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes, coach Andy Reid and defensive tackle Chris Jones are still there. Tight end Travis Kelce is back for another season. This team is the best in the NFL at figuring out how to solve the puzzle of the season and come out on top, and until we actually see someone finish ahead of the Chiefs in their division for the first time in a decade, I won’t believe it’s happening.

The Vikings will take back the NFC North

Minnesota was one of the league’s busiest teams last week, signing veteran defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave to bolster the defensive line, bringing in Will Fries and Ryan Kelly to bolster the offensive line and returning cornerback Byron Murphy Jr. and running back Aaron Jones on substantial deals. It’s clear the Vikings are trying to ride the momentum of their 14-3 season and build on it with a deep roster capable of cashing in with some postseason success.

The two-time defending champion Lions are dealing with massive coaching turnover (both coordinators left for head-coaching gigs), and the Vikings were right there with them at the top of the division in 2024, losing the title in the very last game of the season.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

Well, at least until we get some clarity on the Vikings’ quarterback situation. Sam Darnold, who started for them last season, left to sign with the Seahawks. J.J. McCarthy, who was the 10th pick in last year’s draft but missed his entire rookie season due to a knee injury, is ostensibly in line to start. But he’s an unknown, and the team is — at least at this writing — considering signing Aaron Rodgers, who would obviously start ahead of him.

Regardless of the way this shakes out, Minnesota will enter the 2025 season with a massive question mark at the quarterback position. It’ll either be McCarthy (who has never played an NFL game), Rodgers (who is 41 and very clearly a diminished version of his brilliant former self) or some other placeholder veteran we don’t know about yet. What coach Kevin O’Connell did with Darnold last season gives hope that it can work out no matter who the Vikings start at quarterback. But in a division with the still-good Lions and Packers and an improving Bears team, the Vikings have too much uncertainty at the most important position for anyone to be picking them in mid-March.

The Falcons continue to mishandle their quarterback situation

A year ago, Atlanta made the biggest splash in free agency, inking quarterback Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract with $90 million guaranteed at signing. A month later, it used the eighth pick in the draft on quarterback Michael Penix Jr. The Falcons were roundly criticized for what appeared to be a sudden and significant change in plans — and one that meant there was no way they could possibly get maximum value out of both Cousins’ contract and Penix’s rookie contract. Cousins then struggled as the starter and was benched late in the 2024 season for Penix, who the team says will be its starter moving forward.

Meantime, Cousins remains on the roster, and the Falcons insist they plan to keep him there as Penix’s backup. In case anyone was doubting their honesty, the fact that Cousins was still on the roster Sunday means that $10 million more — in the form of a 2026 roster bonus — became fully guaranteed. The Falcons now would take on a $75 million dead-money cap hit if they released Cousins (which they continue to insist they will not) or a $37.5 million dead-money cap hit if they traded him.

I guess the latter is still possible, but the starting QB spots around the league are filling up, and Cousins has a no-trade clause that gives him the power to determine where he’d go.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Easy to say, I know, because it’s not my money, but that $90 million is a sunk cost. Keeping Cousins around doesn’t do anyone any good. It’s no good for Penix, because the moment he has two or three tough games in a row, fans are going to be clamoring for Cousins to replace him. It’s obviously no good for Cousins, who’s another year removed from his Achilles injury and eager to play and show people he still can. And it’s hard to see how it’s good for a Falcons coaching staff that has to manage and continue to answer questions about a difficult situation.

Atlanta is lucky that Cousins isn’t the type of guy who’s going to hold out or make things difficult on the team in an effort to force his way out. But if Penix starts every game this season, the Falcons will have paid Cousins $100 million for a total of 14 starts, and keeping him around means this mess will continue to hang over Penix while he works to make this his team.

The Falcons would be better off just ripping off the Band-Aid and moving on. But it doesn’t look like they’re going to do that.

This is one of the worst possible years to need a QB

Once it was clear that Matthew Stafford was staying with the Rams, the top available option in most teams’ minds was off the board. The next-best quarterback who changed teams is probably Geno Smith, who was traded to the Raiders from the Seahawks (who then signed Darnold). The Vikings tried to hold onto Daniel Jones to be the bridge guy for McCarthy, but he signed with the Colts in hopes of beating out disappointing 2023 first-round pick Anthony Richardson for the starting job. And Justin Fields signed with the Jets, leaving the Steelers, Giants, Browns and (on some level) Vikings still looking for options where there aren’t very many left.

Rodgers can only pick one team (and again, he is 41 years old). Russell Wilson visited the Browns and Giants last week and remains a possibility in Pittsburgh if the Steelers don’t get Rodgers. Joe Flacco (who also visited the Giants last week) and Jameis Winston are out there looking for new homes, too.

Looking forward to April, the draft class has two quarterbacks at the top — Miami’s Cam Ward and Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders — and the consensus seems to be that neither would have been among the top four or five QBs taken in last year’s draft. Tennessee has the first pick this year and could snag one of them, leaving these other teams continuing to search.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

I mean, it is rough out here in these streets. The Steelers and Giants, two of the league’s flagship franchises, have been reduced to waiting to hear back from a 41-year-old quarterback that the Jets didn’t want anymore? Coach of the Year Kevin O’Connell is wondering if it’s worth taking a flier on that same 41-year-old at the risk of blowing up his entire plan and possibly his team’s culture? Colts fans are wondering if the dude who was the fourth pick in the draft two years ago can beat out Daniel Jones? The Browns are trading for Kenny Pickett?

If your team went into this past weekend still unsure about who its quarterback is going to be in 2025, your team is in some trouble. The offseason did not — and certainly won’t from this point on — offer many good answers.

The 49ers’ Super Bowl window is closed

San Francisco’s offseason has been more about who’s leaving than who’s joining. The 49ers traded away Deebo Samuel Sr., incurring a $31 million dead-money cap hit just to shed his $16.6 million salary. They lost heart-and-soul linebacker Dre Greenlaw, safety Talanoa Hufanga and cornerback Charvarius Ward in free agency. They released Javon Hargrave and Leonard Floyd. Heck, for a minute there they even cut fullback mainstay Kyle Juszczyk, though they brought him back on a new deal over the weekend. This all comes after finishing 6-11 in 2024.

As of now, the 49ers project to carry almost $80 million in dead salary cap money in 2025 after an offseason that so far looks more like a reset than a reload. And they still need to get quarterback Brock Purdy extended, which won’t be cheap.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

This roster still includes Nick Bosa, Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams, Fred Warner, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk … you get the picture. A lot of good players. The coach is still Kyle Shanahan, too. It’s a well-run, high-functioning organization that has been a consistent contender when healthy. And only a year ago, it was one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl.

Sure, the Niners are getting a little older. Sure, it’s going to be tougher once Purdy is no longer making less than $1 million per year. Sure, the Rams appear to be on the ascent, and it’s easy to like them, the Eagles, the Commanders and at least 75% of the NFC North better than the 49ers at this point. My point is San Francisco just doesn’t feel like the kind of team you want to overlook.

The Rams and Buccaneers each carried massive dead-money totals in the 2023 season and still made the playoffs. Same for the Broncos in 2024. Teams can reload on the fly in this league, and the 49ers still have their strong core.