NFL free agency can be a great way for teams to patch holes, fill in rosters or even add an occasional star. It’s also a place to make mistakes and sink money into players who won’t help for years to come.

The trick is knowing which players are which. Just like with the NFL draft, there’s no perfect formula to calculate how each player’s future will play out. But there are some indicators, which NFL teams are trying to identify as they plunge into the new league year and the madness of free agency. The negotiation period for free agents starts Monday, and signings can be made official Wednesday.

Ben Solak took the optimistic view on the 2025 class Thursday, picking out potential steals, so I’m playing the role of pessimist, identifying five players who I believe are overrated heading into free agency. It’s not to say they can’t work out, but acquiring teams should be careful about overpaying them this March. Let’s start with a player who’s getting all the buzz right now.

coverage:
Grading biggest deals | Best available free agents
Offense free agent tiers | Defense free agent tiers
14 underrated free agents

Sam Darnold, QB

2024 team:Minnesota Vikings | Age entering 2025 season: 28

Darnold had a career season and some incredible moments that will be hard for talent evaluators to forget — this downfield touchdown throw on the run to Justin Jefferson against the Seahawks in Week 16 leaps to mind. But when you zoom out a little, I find the case for Darnold far less compelling.

The Vikings went 14-3 in 2024 because of their defense. Darnold ranked only 14th in QBR (60.4) in the regular season — his disastrous playoff performance wasn’t even included there — and the Vikings ranked 15th in offensive EPA per play. He managed that barely-above-average level of efficiency with an offensive playcaller in Kevin O’Connell who’s widely considered one of the best in the league. Darnold also had the benefit of arguably the league’s best wide receiver in Jefferson, a high-quality No. 2 in Jordan Addison and solid pass protection. He even played 54% of his snaps with the Vikings in the lead, the highest among all qualifying quarterbacks.

The consensus view of Darnold heading into the 2024 season was he was in the backup/bridge quarterback range, with potential below-average starter upside. We should update our beliefs based on new information, so I certainly view Darnold more favorably now than I did 12 months ago. But given that his numbers were more middling than great, despite the favorable circumstances around him, I think Darnold is a below-average starter. That’s not the type of player to whom I want to give a big multiyear guarantee.

Amari Cooper, WR

2024 team:Buffalo Bills | Age entering 2025 season: 31

After averaging 2.2 and 2.5 yards per route run in 2022 and 2023, respectively, Cooper’s production significantly dropped off in 2024. He managed only 1.6 yards per route run this past season with the Browns and Bills, recording 547 receiving yards and four touchdowns on 44 receptions.

There are feasible reasons on the surface to explain Cooper’s down season. He was stuck with Deshaun Watson as his quarterback at the start of the year, he had to transition to a new offense midway through the season after being traded, and a wrist injury which kept him out of several games could have impacted his overall production. Then again, he barely produced with league MVP Josh Allen as his quarterback, catching only 20 passes for 297 yards and two touchdowns in eight regular-season games with Buffalo. His playoff performance wasn’t great either, as he caught six passes for 41 yards in three games.

I’m inclined to be bearish on Cooper going forward simply because he’s a 31-year-old receiver coming off a poor season. There’s a good chance he’ll never approach his 2023 form, when he made the Pro Bowl after catching 72 passes for 1,250 yards and five touchdowns.

Advanced numbers indicate a decline, too. Since 2020, Cooper’s open score in ESPN’s receiver scores has steadily dropped, going from 64 to 58 to 54 to 46 to 39 this season. And his overall score of 23 was tied for eighth-worst among wide receivers.

Tershawn Wharton, DT

2024 team:Kansas City Chiefs | Age entering 2025 season: 27

Wharton played more in 2024 than he had in his previous four seasons, managing 8.5 combined sacks between the regular season and the playoffs. That sack total might net him a decent paycheck, but it comes with some large contextual red flags.

For starters, his 7% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle doesn’t match the sack production, ranking 34th out of 47 qualifiers at the position. There are also two major factors which could have inflated his sack totals. He played on a Chiefs team that was often ahead (sacks are much more likely when opponents are forced into desperate passing situations to catch up) and he played next to Chris Jones, the best defensive tackle in football.

Though Jones had fewer sacks than Wharton this past season, his 16% pass rush win rate was more than double Wharton’s. Jones also attracted a high rate of double-teams when lined up at defensive tackle (69.9%), freeing up Wharton for a lower-than-average double-team rate of 53.3%.

All of this is to say Wharton — who also had a below-average run stop win rate in 2024 (29%) — could get an inflated price for a few sacks that might be difficult to repeat in a different situation.

Najee Harris, RB

2024 team:Pittsburgh Steelers | Age entering 2025 season: 27

Harris has been better in Years 3 and 4 of his career, but I think his reputation is still coasting off being drafted in the first round in 2021. If I told you there was an available running back who averaged 3.9 yards per carry over more than 1,000 career attempts, had negative rush yards over expectation in three out of four seasons (per NFL Next Gen Stats) and didn’t produce any exceptional receiving numbers, what would that player be worth to you? I don’t think the answer should be very much.

There have been 32 running backs over the past decade with at least 1,000 carries, and Harris’ 3.9 yards per carry ranks 30th among that group. His 2.0 yards after contact per carry last season was slightly above average, but it was worse than teammate Jaylen Warren and frankly not anything to write home about.

Harris does offer availability — he has started and played every regular-season game of his career (68) — but his overall numbers are not that far from replacement level. I imagine some team is going to pay him expecting a bit more than that.

Paulson Adebo, CB

2024 team:New Orleans Saints | Age entering 2025 season: 26

Predicting future cornerback play quantitatively is always tricky — the position has high year-to-year variance and nearest defender metrics contain plenty of noise. However, there are better places to look for signals than others.

Adebo has some gaudy numbers. Thanks in part to seven interceptions over the past two seasons, he has a remarkable minus-49 expected points added when targeted as the nearest defender in that span. That is excellent, but targeted EPA has almost no year-to-year correlation with itself. The more stable cornerback metrics — which aren’t really that stable — are target rate and yards per coverage snap. Adebo doesn’t fare so well in those categories.

No outside corner with at least 200 coverage snaps this past season was targeted more frequently than Adebo (21%). Granted, Adebo’s season was shortened by a broken right femur, but he has had an above-average target rate in each his four NFL seasons and an above-average yards per coverage snap in three years. When in doubt, I’d always rather look for corners who opponents aren’t throwing at consistently.

I know Solak had Adebo on his underrated free agent list, but I’ll stick with my numbers and fade Adebo. Maybe Solak and I can wager on Adebo’s 2025 campaign?