2024-25 CFP, bowl picks: Predicting college football scores
Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire
The arrival of the 12-team College Football Playoff adds another layer to the ever-bloomin’ onion known as bowl predictions.
The expanded CFP field was unveiled, slotting the top four seeds — No. 1 Oregon, No. 2 Georgia, No. 3 Boise State and No. 4 Arizona State — into major bowl games that will double as national quarterfinals. Their opponents will be determined after first-round matchups on campus later this month. As your fearless forecaster, I will not only pick the first-round winners, but the entire CFP.
The non-CFP bowl matchups are also set, but the circumstances around them have yet to be determined. Will teams with legitimate CFP aspirations that were left out actually show up? The transfer portal officially opens in hours and will be heavily populated. Colorado Buffaloes stars Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders are expected to play in the Valero Alamo Bowl, but other projected first-round NFL draft picks may decide to sit out their teams’ bowl games.
There are also coaching changes for bowl teams — some that have been made, like at North Carolina and West Virginia, and others that still could come, for head coaches as well as other staff members. These games are all about motivation and matchups, and a lot can change between now and kickoff.
But here at ESPN bowl prediction headquarters in downtown Indianapolis, we’re not afraid of any circumstances. So let’s get to the picks, from campus CFP sites through traditional bowls and all the way to the national title game on Jan. 20 in Atlanta.
Ready, set, bowl!
(All times ET)
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College Football Playoff schedule
Friday, Dec. 20
CFP first-round game
No.10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame
Notre Dame Stadium (South Bend, Indiana)
8 p.m., ABC/ESPN
Notre Dame hosting a first-round CFP game is more of an expectation than a surprise. The Irish kicking off the first 12-team playoff against an in-state opponent in Indiana, meanwhile, is a total shocker. Indiana’s dream season under coach Curt Cignetti will continue with its first CFP appearance. What a moment for college football in a state better known for its basketball. Neither team has played the most taxing schedule, but both have generally dominated their opponents. Both are led by formidable defenses, as Indiana leads the nation in rushing defense (70.8 YPG), while Notre Dame is No. 3 in points allowed (13.6).
A big key for Notre Dame is getting RBs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price and QB Riley Leonard going against Indiana’s strong run D. Indiana’s offensive line, which struggled against Ohio State, will be challenged to protect Kurtis Rourke and allow him to find Elijah Sarratt and others. Notre Dame’s defensive front seven will be the difference, as Leonard engineers a big second half and the Irish advance.
Prediction: Notre Dame 31, Indiana 21
Saturday Dec. 21
CFP first-round game
No.11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State
Beaver Stadium (State College, Pennsylvania)
Noon, TNT
SMU was the right team to be included in the CFP, as coach Rhett Lashlee’s team has, in his words, moved leagues and levels to go undefeated in regular-season ACC play. The Mustangs have a dynamic offensive backfield in quarterback Kevin Jennings and running back Brashard Smith and an experienced roster used to winning. But a trip to State College in mid-December to face a Penn State team in front of 107,000 fans is a very tough draw for a first-time CFP entrant. It’s an unfriendly environment that can be jarring for opponents.
Penn State impressed Saturday night in Indianapolis, even in defeat, as it outgained Oregon and attacked a talented Ducks defense with multiple players, not just do-it-all tight end Tyler Warren. Although Warren will find the end zone in this one, Penn State’s running back tandem of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen will be the difference. A talented PSU secondary will do enough to contain SMU’s passing game.
Prediction: Penn State 34, SMU 23
CFP first-round game
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium (Austin, Texas)
4 p.m., TNT
Coach Dabo Swinney’s Tigers are the rare conference champion playing with house money — a three-loss team that many (including me) wrote off after a 12-point home loss to Louisville. But Clemson won another ACC title and will head to Texas behind quarterback Cade Klubnik, an Austin native who would love nothing more than to end the Longhorns’ season. Texas certainly will need more from its own quarterback, Quinn Ewers, who has more interceptions (three) than touchdown passes (two) in his past two games. How much Arch Manning will we see against a Clemson defense that has fallen off a bit this season?
Texas ultimately has home field and the best unit: a defense that can stifle Phil Mafah and Clemson’s run game and pressure Klubnik. The Longhorns allow only 12.1 points per game and 4 yards per play. Clemson grabs the early lead before Texas clamps down, as Gunner Helm hauls in two touchdowns from Ewers.
Prediction: Texas 24, Clemson 16
CFP first-round game
No.9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
8 p.m., ABC/ESPN
Most coaches in the CFP can feel fairly secure about their employment status. Ohio State’s Ryan Day is in a unique and difficult spot after the team’s stunning home loss to 6-5 Michigan, his fourth consecutive setback in college football’s most pressurized rivalry. Day is 66-10 overall at Ohio State, but his struggles against Michigan and in the CFP are pronounced. Two years ago, Ohio State responded from a home loss to Michigan and played one of its best games under Day before falling to eventual national champion Georgia. The Buckeyes will need a similar rebound, especially on offense, against a very talented Tennessee defense led by Jermod McCoy, Joshua Josephs, James Pearce Jr. and others.
Will Ohio State’s superteam tap out in the first round of the CFP? I don’t see it. Tennessee hasn’t been great away from Knoxville this season, and Ohio Stadium will be a difficult setting for Nico Iameleava and the Vols offense. Ohio State’s defense has performed well since the Oregon loss, and will rise up again, as Caleb Downs collects a takeaway. Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly won’t forget about Jeremiah Smith again as the Buckeyes win a close one.
Prediction: Ohio State 26, Tennessee 19
Heather Dinich shares some of her biggest takeaways about the final College Football Playoff bracket.
Tuesday, Dec. 31
CFP Quarterfinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
Penn State vs. No. 3 Boise State
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
It’s fitting that Boise State’s long-awaited CFP debut will occur in Arizona, where much of the country was introduced to the Broncos after their dramatic win against Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl. Will Ashton Jeanty and Boise State deliver more magic? Penn State defensive coordinator Tom Allen will craft his game plan around containing Jeanty, who gashed Oregon for 192 yards and three touchdowns back in September and has at least 128 rushing yards in every game this season. But Penn State’s run defense hasn’t fallen off much since the team led the nation in 2023. Jeanty will break off a long run early before the Nittany Lions clamp down a bit.
The teams will trade scores most of the way, but Penn State quarterback Drew Allar delivers two late touchdown passes, the last to All-America tight end Tyler Warren. Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki channels former Boise State coach Chris Petersen and makes the play calls that will leave everyone buzzing as the Lions march on to the national semifinals.
Prediction: Penn State 35, Boise State 31
Wednesday, Jan. 1
CFP Quarterfinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Texas vs. No. 4 Arizona State
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
1 p.m., ESPN
The Longhorns head back to Atlanta after falling in the SEC title game, and will face one of the nation’s most surprising and hottest teams in Arizona State. Kenny Dillingham is the homegrown coach who Arizona State has waited years for and he engineered an incredible turnaround at a program mired in scandal and underachievement. The Sun Devils’ confidence and execution down the stretch has been off the charts. The long layoff before the bowl game could hurt ASU’s momentum a bit, though, and Texas might be a really tough matchup for what the Sun Devils do well. Running back Cam Skattebo has been incredible, rushing for 1,568 yards with 19 touchdowns and consistently breaking tackles. But Texas is a top-10 run defense with the bodies and depth to limit Skattebo.
Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers has been effective against defenders not wearing Georgia uniforms, and coach Steve Sarkisian also has Arch Manning at his disposal. Sarkisian will employ a safe and effective passing game against an ASU defense that has 15 interceptions but can be susceptible through the air. Texas’ defense and Ewers’ efficiency will be the difference as the Longhorns move on.
Prediction: Texas 33, Arizona State 20
CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential
Ohio State vs. No. 1 Oregon
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
5 p.m., ESPN
Rose Bowl traditionalists will love this matchup, even though it’s an intra-conference clash and a rematch of a game that helped define a wild 2024 college football season. Oregon answered coach Dan Lanning’s charge and became the “keystone species” of the Big Ten, winning the league in its first year and matching a team record with 13 wins. The Ducks will be well rested, too, and aim to clean up their defensive miscues from the Big Ten title game, where Penn State piled up 518 yards and 37 points. Oregon was the aggressor in the team’s first matchup, attacking Ohio State’s secondary with wideouts Evan Stewart and Tez Johnson, who has boosted the offense since his return from a shoulder injury.
Expect one of the best games — if not the best — of the first 12-team CFP. Oregon will take the early lead behind Johnson and quarterback Dillon Gabriel, but Ohio State will rally as Emeka Egbuka records two touchdown passes. Ultimately, an Oregon team with the better quarterback and offensive line will take control in the fourth quarter, as Jordan James scores late to push the Ducks into the semis.
Prediction: Oregon 38, Ohio State 35
CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8:45 p.m., ESPN
Georgia has played a much tougher schedule than Notre Dame, recording four wins against other CFP teams (Clemson, Tennessee, Texas twice). But the Bulldogs have also lived on the edge for most of the season, struggling with opponents like Kentucky, Florida and Georgia Tech, a team Notre Dame walloped 31-13 on Oct. 19. Georgia has only shown dominance in spurts, especially on offense, while dealing with injuries to quarterback Carson Beck and others. The Bulldogs should benefit from the extended layoff before the quarterfinal, but they will be challenged by a Notre Dame team with a diverse running game and stout defense.
Expect the defenses to shine in this game, which likely will come down to turnovers, special teams and field position. But Georgia doesn’t defend the run as well as it normally does, and Notre Dame’s ability to move the ball with its trident of Jeremiyah Love, Jadarian Price and Riley Leonard will show up in the second half. Georgia makes a late charge before Xavier Watts seals the win with an interception.
Prediction: Notre Dame 19, Georgia 17
Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian reacts to his team’s matchup vs. Clemson in the College Football Playoff.
Thursday, Jan. 9
CFP Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Notre Dame vs. Penn State
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Those who enjoy multifaceted rushing offenses and stout defense will enjoy this matchup in South Florida. Both teams can attack defenses with several ball-carriers, although Notre Dame boasts the more mobile quarterback in Riley Leonard, who has 721 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns, one behind Jeremiyah Love for the team lead. Both teams also amplify the tight end position, as Penn State’s Tyler Warren is in line to become the school’s first Mackey Award winner. Both teams have some limitations at wide receiver, although Penn State’s ability to stretch Notre Dame with Omari Evans is worth watching.
The all-time series is appropriately tied at 9-9-1, but the teams haven’t met since 2007, when Penn State answered a blowout loss to Notre Dame with a lopsided win at Beaver Stadium. Expect a highly competitive game that swings back and forth. But coach Marcus Freeman’s big-game track record is too much to ignore against James Franklin, and Notre Dame will cap a late drive with a Leonard touchdown, and reach the championship stage.
Prediction: Notre Dame 27, Penn State 26
Friday, Jan. 10
CFP Semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
The teams meet for the first time since 2013 and just the second time since 1971, with a berth in the national title game at stake. There are some connections, though, including Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who lit up Texas for 285 passing yards and 113 rushing yards last season in an upset victory for Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry. A talented Texas defense must contain Gabriel, running back Jordan James and an excellent group of pass-catchers led by Tez Johnson, tight end Terrance Ferguson and others. Oregon simply has more ways to attack than most offenses Texas has faced this season.
It will be fascinating to see how Texas coach Steve Sarkisian uses backup quarterback Arch Manning in the CFP, as his big-play potential might exceed Ewers’ in certain situations. But Oregon’s overall depth and bevy of playmakers seems too much for a Texas team that will need to play a relatively low-scoring game. Ducks march on.
Prediction: Oregon 31, Texas 21
Monday, Jan. 20
CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Notre Dame vs. Oregon
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
The first 12-team CFP will appropriately conclude with one of the sport’s newer superpowers in Oregon facing a Notre Dame team steeped in tradition and lore. Both teams are largely built at the line of scrimmage, although both also have veteran quarterbacks — Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel, Notre Dame’s Riley Leonard — as well as standout running backs and individual defenders. The matchup also features two of the sport’s best young coaches in Dan Lanning and Marcus Freeman, both 38 years old. But Oregon has been the nation’s most complete and consistent team in a season filled with flaws and chaos. The Ducks certainly can be beat, but they lack an obvious weakness and have the edge at most position groups.
USC showed how to attack Notre Dame’s defense, and Oregon likely will take a similar approach (without the devastating turnovers, of course). Gabriel caps a record-setting college career with a clean and efficient performance, finding three different players for touchdown catches. Notre Dame’s run game keeps the game close for a while, but the Irish just don’t have the firepower to keep up. Oregon secures its first national title for 86-year-old Phil Knight and further establishes itself as a heavyweight in the sport.
Prediction: Oregon 38, Notre Dame 27
Complete bowl game schedule
Saturday, Dec. 14
Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
The first bowl game of the season is a good one, as Jackson State aims for its first Celebration Bowl title against a South Carolina State team that makes its first appearance in the game since pounding Deion Sanders’ JSU team 31-10 in 2021. Jackson State could have the edge this time around, as it bullied its way through the SWAC, going 8-0 and outscoring its opponents 316-127. The Tigers won their final nine games, riding running back Irv Mulligan — one of the best names in bowl season — and others. South Carolina State also comes in hot, having won eight straight, boosted by a deep passing attack and a strong defense. But Jackson State won’t be denied this year, as Mulligan scores late to rally his team.
Prediction: Jackson State 31, South Carolina State 27
South Alabama vs. Western Michigan
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
South Alabama will be playing practically a home game under first-year coach Major Applewhite, and it boasts an offense that averages 34.8 points per game. Jaguars wide receiver Jamaal Pritchett put up Caullin Lacy-like numbers this fall — 1,126 receiving yards, 91 receptions, 9 touchdowns — and Gio Lopez completed more than 65% of his passes. Western Michigan was tested early and struggled late, but it played well in the middle of the season and has faced stronger competition than the Jaguars. Quarterback Hayden Wolff and running back Jaden Nixon lead a balanced offense for coach Lance Taylor’s first bowl team at WMU. Ultimately, the Jaguars have too much firepower for the Broncos to slow down.
Prediction: South Alabama 35, Western Michigan 24
Tuesday, Dec. 17
Memphis vs. West Virginia
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Assessing a team’s response to a coaching change is never easy, as some squads will rally and others are simply ready to move on. WVU plays its first game since coach Neal Brown was fired, as offensive coordinator Chad Scott will lead the team against a Memphis squad that recorded 10 wins for the second straight year and comes off of its best game, a 34-24 road win against Tulane. WVU really struggled defensively against formidable quarterbacks, and record-setting Memphis QB Seth Henigan certainly qualifies. Henigan and star wideout Roc Taylor connect for several big plays against an undermanned Mountaineers team, and Mario Anderson Jr. rushes for two touchdowns as Memphis pulls away in the fourth quarter.
Prediction: Memphis 41, West Virginia 27
Wednesday, Dec. 18
Western Kentucky vs. James Madison
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Both teams emerge from degrees of disappointment after falling short in their league races. Western Kentucky fell by 40 points to Jacksonville State in the Conference USA championship, while James Madison fell 35-33 in two overtimes to Marshall in its regular season finale. Still, the Dukes and first-year coach Bob Chesney might be more motivated for this one, especially with dynamic quarterback Alonza Barnett III and a solid group of pass-catchers on the field. Both teams are capable enough on defense and can spread the ball around in the passing game, as WKU’s Caden Veltkamp has 23 touchdown passes. Hilltoppers coach Tyson Helton is 4-1 in bowls, though, and will add a close win to his ledger.
Prediction: Western Kentucky 28, James Madison 26
Cal vs. UNLV
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
For all the fun of the Calgorithm and Cal’s early season success, the Bears really should be a lot better than 6-6. Their excruciating losses to Florida State, Miami, Pitt and NC State underscore a talented team that had a very hard time closing games, a troubling theme under coach Justin Wilcox. UNLV had a more successful season, reaching its second straight Mountain West title game, but the Rebels lost coach Barry Odom to Purdue. Will they have the right mindset to win their first bowl game since 2000? Cal should get quarterback Fernando Mendoza back after he missed the regular season finale at SMU, but UNLV has been far more consistent and will secure its 11th win to match the team record.
Prediction: UNLV 35, Cal 31
Thursday Dec. 19
Georgia Southern vs. Sam Houston
Caesars Superdome
(New Orleans) 7 p.m., ESPN2
Clay Helton takes his best Georgia Southern team to New Orleans, where it will face a Sam Houston squad appearing in its first FBS bowl and playing for an interim coach in Brad Cornelsen. Sam Houston will be shorthanded after a flurry of transfer portal entries last week, following coach K.C. Keeler’s departure to Temple. Georgia Southern won six of its final eight games, taking down Marshall, James Madison, South Alabama and others. The Eagles’ diverse passing attack, which features six players with 24 or more receptions and two with 50 or more (Derwin Burgess Jr. and Dalen Cobb) will be too much for a Bearkats team losing standout safety Caleb Weaver and others to the portal.
Prediction: Georgia Southern 38, Sam Houston 21
Friday, Dec. 20
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Ohio vs. Jacksonville State
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bowl matchups that feature two conference champions always bring a bit more flavor. Ohio claimed its first conference title since 1968, while Jacksonville State, which only became eligible to win Conference USA this season, rolled to a championship – its first as an FBS program. The Bobcats are in transition following coach Tim Albin’s departure to Charlotte, and Jacksonville State coach Rich Rodriguez is a candidate to return to West Virginia, his alma mater. The game’s best matchup features Jacksonville State running back tandem Tre Stewart and Tyler Huff, who have combined for staggering rushing numbers — 2,947 yards, 37 touchdowns — facing an Ohio defense that ranks seventh nationally against the run and has allowed only 11 rushing touchdowns all season. Ultimately, Ohio’s defense and its own run game, led by Anthony Tyus, prevails in a close one.
Prediction: Ohio 31, Jacksonville State 29
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Tulane vs. Florida
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Florida players and fans normally wouldn’t be excited about a non-CFP bowl in mid-December, but the program’s heartening finish under coach Billy Napier, coupled with a good recruiting push, has improved the vibes significantly. A really exciting quarterback matchup between Florida’s DJ Lagway and Tulane’s Darian Mensah took a hit as Mensah is reportedly set to enter the transfer portal. Tulane’s late-season struggles against improved competition (Memphis, Army) are concerning, too, especially with Florida’s defense allowing only 44 total points in its final three games. Give me the Gators.
Prediction: Florida 31, Tulane 17
Monday, Dec. 23
Coastal Carolina vs. UTSA
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN
Both teams finished the regular season at 6-6, but several factors point toward UTSA in this one. The Roadrunners won three of their final four games, with their lone loss coming against eventual AAC champion Army. Four of UTSA’s losses came by 10 points or fewer, while all six Coastal Carolina defeats were by double figures. Coastal Carolina also will be playing with a new quarterback after Ethan Vasko entered the transfer portal last week. The Chanticleers will have a tough time keeping pace with UTSA quarterback Owen McCown, who has 3,124 passing yards and 24 touchdowns, and has a good group of pass catchers. UTSA pulls away for its second straight bowl win under Jeff Traylor.
Prediction: UTSA 34, Coastal Carolina 24
Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Last year, I picked against a Tim Skipper-led Fresno State team in a bowl game and paid the price, as the Bulldogs pounded New Mexico State. Skipper will coach Fresno State for the final time before Matt Entz takes over. Fresno State takes on a Northern Illinois team with a signature win over Notre Dame, as well as three wins in its final four regular season games. Both teams are dealing with significant portal entries, which include quarterbacks Mikey Keene (Fresno State) and Ethan Hampton (NIU), and several Fresno State wide receivers. Expect a defense-driven game that comes down to the end, but Fresno State’s personnel losses are too much to overcome.
Prediction: Northern Illinois 19, Fresno State 14
Tuesday, Dec. 24
South Florida vs. San José State
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
First-year San Jose State coach Ken Niumtalolo returns to his home state with a team playing in the Hawai’i Bowl for the second straight year. Biletnikoff Award finalist Nick Nash leads the Spartans after recording 104 receptions for 1,382 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns, and is complemented by Justin Lockhart (52 catches, 973 yards, 5 touchdowns). South Florida won four of its final six games, albeit against the weaker part of the AAC, but boasts a diverse and powerful run game with three players who have more than 400 rushing yards and at least seven rushing touchdowns, led by Kelley Joiner. San Jose State has been a bit more consistent in its performances, and should have a motivation edge in this one.
Prediction: San Jose State 35, South Florida 28
Thursday, Dec. 26
Pittsburgh vs. Toledo
Ford Field (Detroit)
2 p.m., ESPN
Both teams had higher postseason aspirations, especially Pitt, which started 7-0 before dropping its final five regular-season games and losing quarterback Eli Holstein to injury. The location favors Toledo, just a short drive from Detroit, and a defense that performed well in wins over Northern Illinois and others. Both teams are limited on offense, as Pitt’s quarterback situation seems murky at best and Toledo scored just 21 total points in two losses to close the regular season. A tough prediction here, but Pitt’s defense seems a bit more reliable and will do enough to stifle Toledo’s drives.
Prediction: Pitt 23, Toledo 16
Rutgers Scarlet vs. Kansas State
Chase Field (Phoenix)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Both teams entered the season with a good amount of buzz, especially Kansas State, a popular pick to win the Big 12 for the second time in three seasons. But the Wildcats struggled down the stretch, losing three of their final four games and eclipsing 21 points just once in November. Rutgers is the hotter team, overcoming a rough midseason stretch to win three of its final four. Opt-outs and portal entries likely will be pivotal for both teams, but the potential running back matchup of Rutgers’ Kyle Monangai and Kansas State’s DJ Giddens is worth your attention. Kansas State has the more talented quarterback in Avery Johnson, although Athan Kaliakmanis played well down the stretch. Although Rutgers’ opt-out potential concerns me, the vibes are better with the Scarlet Knights entering this one.
Prediction: Rutgers 24, Kansas State 20
Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Coach Scot Loeffler has Bowling Green in its third consecutive bowl game while he is seeking his first postseason victory, and the school’s first since 2014 (Camellia). The Falcons are led by a defense that ranks 24th nationally in fewest points allowed (20.3 ppg), and Harold Fannin Jr., who, with 1,342 receiving yards, is approaching Jace Amaro’s FBS single-season record for a tight end. Arkansas State won four of its final six games and will challenge Bowling Green with Corey Rucker, the team’s all-time receiving yards leader. But Bowling Green’s defense and Fannin should be enough in this one.
Prediction: Bowling Green 27, Arkansas State 23
Friday, Dec. 27
Syracuse vs. Washington State
Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, CA
8 p.m., FOX
The big storyline here is Washington State’s efforts to retain John Mateer, the star dual-threat quarterback who has 29 passing touchdowns, 15 rushing touchdowns and ranks fifth nationally in total offense. Mateer could be the most coveted quarterback in the transfer portal this year and has a natural landing spot with Oklahoma, which just hired WSU offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle. Cougars coach Jake Dickert said the school will make a strong financial offer to retain Mateer. Without him, it’s hard to see WSU competing with a Syracuse team that leads the nation in passing (363.1 ypg) behind Kyle McCord (4,326 yards). Expect plenty of points in San Diego but the uncertainty around WSU, plus a three-game losing streak to end the Cougars’ season, has all signs pointed toward Syracuse.
Prediction: Syracuse 38, Washington State 27
Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Noon or 3:30 p.m., ESPN
The game pairs two teams with unimpressive overall records but very impressive wins, which include Alabama (Vanderbilt), Miami (Georgia Tech) and Duke (Georgia Tech), as well as some agonizingly close losses to strong opponents. The quarterback matchup between Georgia Tech’s Haynes King and Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia also should generate attention. Neither team finished the season particularly well, but Georgia Tech’s ability to control the pace with King and running back Jamal Haynes, while mixing in downfield passes, could provide the edge. Few would be surprised if Pavia leads Vandy to its first bowl win since 2014, but I’m going with the Ramblin’ Wreck.
Prediction: Georgia Tech 28, Vanderbilt 23
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Oklahoma vs. Navy
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
Noon or 3:30 p.m., ESPN
The Sooners return to a Big 12 stadium seeking a better result than their last appearance in Fort Worth, a 55-24 loss to TCU in 2022. They take on a Navy team capable of piling up points with a new offense coordinated by Drew Cronic and featuring dual-threat quarterback Blake Horvath. But Navy’s offensive mojo slowed in the second half of the season, and Oklahoma will need to lean on its own stout defense after quarterback Jackson Arnold and others are headed to the portal. Sooners coach Brent Venables is trying to avoid his second 6-7 season in three years, ahead of a pivotal 2025 campaign. Oklahoma’s defensive opt-outs are worth watching, and there are more guarantees on the Navy side.
Prediction: Navy 24, Oklahoma 20
Texas Tech vs. Arkansas
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
7 p.m., ESPN
The location favors Arkansas, which should have a sizable crowd advantage at the stadium most known as the Liberty Bowl. But Texas Tech played better down the stretch, winning three of its final four games and scoring 108 total points in its final two. The Red Raiders are replacing both of their primary coordinators, though, and could be without star running back Tajh Brooks. The teams played annually from 1957 to 1991 before Arkansas exited the Southwest Conference. Arkansas dropped its final three SEC regular season games and had several players opt out, including Andrew Armstrong, the SEC’s leading receiver. But the Hogs will do enough to win their second straight Liberty Bowl under coach Sam Pittman.
Prediction: Arkansas 31, Texas Tech 27
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Texas A&M vs. USC
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
10:30 p.m., ESPN
What a bizarre full-circle situation for USC, which began its season with such promise on the same field at Allegiant Stadium, taking down LSU. The Trojans would only win five more games, though, and Miller Moss, the quarterback who fueled the LSU win and set records in last year’s Holiday Bowl victory, is in the transfer portal. Jayden Maiva, who replaced Moss, will return to Las Vegas after starring for UNLV in 2023. Texas A&M faces USC for the first time since 1977 and tries to end coach Mike Elko’s first season on a positive note. USC coach Lincoln Riley could really use a bowl bump here, but this year he doesn’t get one.
Prediction: Texas A&M 24, USC 20
Saturday, Dec. 28
North Carolina vs. UConn
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN
People aren’t talking enough about the job Jim Mora is doing at UConn, which improved its wins total from three in 2023 to eight this fall, the team’s highest since going to the Fiesta Bowl in 2010. The Huskies have a formidable run game led by Cam Edwards and Durell Robinson, and a solid defense against the run headlined by linebacker Jayden McDonald. North Carolina is going through a coaching transition, as Freddie Kitchens will lead the team against the Huskies. From location to motivation to portal entries, all signs here suggest a UConn win.
Prediction: UConn 33, North Carolina 24
Boston College vs. Nebraska
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Nebraska is back in a bowl game for the first time since the 2016 Music City Bowl, which means Yankee Stadium will turn red. But the Huskers barely got here, dropping five of their final six games, and recently lost defensive coordinator Tony White and defensive line coach Terrance Knighton to Florida State. Boston College has had a better overall season under first-year coach Bill O’Brien, whose quarterback switch to Grayson Grames sparked a solid finish. The Eagles go from a bowl win at Fenway Park in 2023 to one at Yankee Stadium.
Prediction: Boston College 27, Nebraska 21
Louisiana vs. TCU
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
TCU quietly ended the season with wins in five of its final six games, finding greater consistency with its run game and in other areas. Louisiana won 10 games for the first time since 2021 but fell 31-3 to Marshall in the Sun Belt title game. The two teams have never met and make their first appearances in the New Mexico Bowl. TCU will be without top wide receiver Jack Bech, who injured his knee in the regular season finale, and the Horned Frogs will need a strong defensive performance to contain a Louisiana offense not overly reliant on any one player. The Ragin’ Cajuns have a solid bowl history but not against Power 4 opponents. The Frogs find a way.
Prediction: TCU 36, Louisiana 29
Iowa State vs. Miami
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
When teams fall short of the CFP, college football offers them an incredible consolation: the chance to eat the Pop-Tarts mascot. This truly is the greatest sport. ISU and Miami certainly will have some degree of disappointment, and the opt-outs could loom large, especially if Hurricanes star quarterback Cam Ward chooses to begin his NFL draft preparation. Iowa State likely has more motivation here, as it can build on its team-record wins total (currently at 10) and claim its first bowl victory since 2020. Miami has been a really bad bowl team, dropping 11 of its last 12, and the misery will continue.
Prediction: Iowa State 38, Miami 27
Miami (OH) vs. Colorado State
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Colorado State is in a bowl game for the first time since the 2017 New Mexico Bowl and seeks its first postseason win since 2013 (New Mexico). The Rams overcame a season-ending injury to star wide receiver Tory Horton and rode a balanced offense and an improved defense to eight wins, including six of the final seven regular season games. Miami overcame a slow start to reach the MAC title game, before being blown out by Ohio. The RedHawks allow fewer than 19 points per game and are especially stout against the pass. Expect a low-scoring game fueled by running backs Avery Morrow (Colorado State) and Keyon Mozee (Miami). The Rams score late to secure the win.
Prediction: Colorado State 20, Miami (Ohio) 16
East Carolina vs. NC State
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Two teams located about 80 miles apart will travel north to Annapolis, where they will meet for the first time since 2022, when NC State escaped Greenville with a 21-20 win. ECU coach Blake Harrell, named to the permanent role Nov. 27, will aim for his first bowl win. NC State’s Dave Doeren seeks his first postseason victory since the 2017 Sun Bowl, and must deal with the departure of longtime defensive coordinator Tony Gibson, named head coach at Marshall. Wolfpack freshman quarterback CJ Bailey has shown promise when he takes care of the ball, and he’ll make enough plays.
Prediction: NC State 34, East Carolina 26
BYU vs. Colorado
Alamodome (San Antonio)
7:30 p.m., ABC
Outside of the CFP games, the Alamo might be the most exciting and intriguing matchup of bowl season. While both teams are Big 12 members, the Alamo remains a Pac-12 legacy bowl, which opened a path for Colorado. The exciting thing is that while both teams had Big 12 title/CFP aspirations, they should be excited about this game and the matchup. Coach Deion Sanders and his star players are all in, including Heisman Trophy favorite Travis Hunter and record-setting quarterback Shedeur Sanders. BYU counters with quarterback Jake Retzlaff, wide receiver Chase Roberts and a defense led by pass rusher Jack Kelly (five sacks, 12 quarterback hurries, 10 tackles for loss). Both teams are improved on defense, especially in the front seven, and both quarterbacks will be under some degree of duress. BYU takes the early lead, but I can’t go against the Sanders family and Hunter in most likely their final game together.
Prediction: Colorado 37, BYU 31
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Marshall vs. Army
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Two league champions square off in Shreveport, although the circumstances for each team aren’t the same. Despite winning its first Sun Belt title, Marshall is dealing with the departure of coach Charles Huff, who moved within the league to Southern Miss. Quarterback Bralyon Braxton is also entering the transfer portal, and others likely will follow. The Thundering Herd are very talented, especially on defense with star pass rusher Mike Green (16 sacks, 15 quarterback hurries, 21 tackles for loss, 3 forced fumbles) and others). But opponents have run the ball well against Marshall, which ranks 110th in rushing defense. That’s not a good formula against Bryson Daily, Kanye Udoh and Army, which caps an incredible season under coach Jeff Monken with a decisive win.
Prediction: Army 31, Marshall 20
Monday, Dec. 30
Iowa vs. Missouri
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
The bowl matchup that never actually kicked off in 2020, due to COVID-19, is happening this year. Despite being in bordering states, Iowa and Missouri have played just once since 1910, in the 2010 Insight Bowl. Both teams have had significant NFL draft opt-outs as Iowa will be without running back Kaleb Johnson, a Doak Walker Award finalist, while Missouri won’t have wide receiver Luther Burden III. Iowa should get quarterback Brendan Sullivan back for the game, and will lean on running back Kamari Moulton, who actually opened the season as the starter, and a defense that ranks 10th nationally in fewest points allowed. But a Missouri team with more offensive sizzle and a knack for winning close games claims another.
Prediction: Missouri 25, Iowa 21
Tuesday, Dec. 31
Alabama vs. Michigan
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Coach Kalen DeBoer’s first season at Alabama won’t end in the CFP. How many of the Crimson Tide’s top players will join him in Tampa? Alabama’s opt-outs and portal entries will be a storyline through December, and Michigan also could have some, as the Wolverines have more high-level NFL draft prospects on this year’s team than last year’s national championship squad. The Tide still will have a significant edge on offense in the matchup, and Michigan might need an Ohio State-like performance to keep pace. Michigan’s run game keeps things close for a half, but Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard eventually get loose as Alabama pulls away.
Prediction: Alabama 30, Michigan 17
Louisville vs. Washington
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Louisville certainly wants to avoid a repeat of the 2023 Holiday Bowl, when it allowed 42 points, 372 passing yards and six touchdowns to USC and Miller Moss. The Cardinals certainly could have contended for the ACC title and a potential CFP spot this season, and boast a nice young core with running backs Isaac Brown and Duke Watson. Washington has an eye toward the future after a predictably rocky first season under coach Jedd Fisch. The good news is running back Jonah Coleman will return, and promising quarterback Demond Williams Jr. will get another chance for valuable experience. Other than the Stanford debacle, Louisville played very well down the stretch and should have enough offense to handle Washington.
Prediction: Louisville 33, Washington 24
South Carolina vs. Illinois
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Both teams responded well from losing seasons in 2023 to go 9-3 and finish in the top 20 of the final CFP rankings. South Carolina had a bit better case for CFP inclusion, although two of Illinois’ three defeats came against playoff teams. The quarterback matchup could be one of the better ones in bowl season, as Illinois’ Luke Altmyer, who began his career in the SEC at Ole Miss, will share the field with South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers, an exceptional talent who will be on the 2025 Heisman Trophy radar. If South Carolina can limit opt-outs, especially from its exceptional defense, it should do enough to outlast a very solid Illinois squad.
Prediction: South Carolina 27, Illinois 22
Baylor vs. LSU
NRG Stadium (Houston)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Baylor coach Dave Aranda engineered one of the better in-season turnarounds, as the Bears overcame a 2-4 start to win their final six games. Quarterback Sawyer Robertson blossomed under first-year offensive coordinator Jake Spavital, passing for 2,626 yards and 26 touchdowns. LSU is also 8-4 but not feeling quite as excited, as a three-game losing streak prevented any chance of a CFP berth. Tigers coach Brian Kelly typically wins bowl games like this one, and did so to cap his first two LSU seasons. But I like Baylor and Aranda, who previously served as LSU’s defensive coordinator, to win a high-scoring game.
Prediction: Baylor 39, LSU 37
Thursday, Jan. 2
Duke vs. Ole Miss
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ESPN
Manny Diaz’s Blue Devils are much more excited about the matchup than Ole Miss, as coach Lane Kiffin spent a lot of time griping about the CFP selection process and why a Rebels team with some undeniably good wins and three losses to inferior opponents got snubbed. The list of Ole Miss opt-outs and transfer portal entries could blow up before we reach the game, changing the complexion of the game. Duke will be up for this game, it has a talented quarterback in Maalik Murphy and strong receivers, and might be facing a shell of the Ole Miss roster. The Blue Devils win a close one.
Prediction: Duke 33, Ole Miss 31
Friday, Jan. 3
North Texas vs. Texas State
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
4 p.m., ESPN
While SMU heads to the CFP, two in-state teams will occupy its stadium to cap the season. North Texas and Texas State haven’t played since 1994, when both teams were in the Southland Conference. Texas State won the First Responder Bowl last year and brings in a powerful offense averaging 37.1 points and 474.3 yards per game. North Texas quarterback Chandler Morris, whose dad Chad coached SMU at Ford Stadium, will keep his team in this one until the fourth quarter. But Texas State has too much on offense with Ismail Mahdi, Jordan McCloud and others making contributions.
Prediction: Texas State 41, North Texas 30
Minnesota vs. Virginia Tech
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
P.J. Fleck was born to play and coach football, brainstorm mottos and eventually douse himself in mayonnaise after winning a bowl game. Can’t you see it now? Fleck’s team wasn’t far away from a much better season and boasts a solid formula of defense, Darius Taylor’s running and quarterback Max Brosmer’s efficient passing. Virginia Tech had far greater expectations than 6-6 this season, and could be facing some damaging personnel departures before January. The Hokies are very talented with running back Bhayshul Tuten, defensive end Antwaun Powell-Ryland and others, but there has been something missing all season. But Minnesota will win, setting up an epic mayo dump for Fleck.
Prediction: Minnesota 28, Virginia Tech 24
Saturday, Jan. 4
Buffalo vs. Liberty
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
11 a.m., ESPN2
Who wouldn’t want to be in the Bahamas in early January, especially when the alternatives are Buffalo, New York, and Lynchburg, Virginia? The motivation factor here certainly points to the Bulls, who had a strong first season under coach Pete Lembo, recording wins against Toledo and Northern Illinois and sweeping their final four regular season games. Linebacker Shaun Dolac, the MAC Defensive Player of the Year, and fellow standout linebacker Red Murdock lead a unit that shined in the Toledo win. Liberty played in the Fiesta Bowl a year ago, and are losing quarterback Kaidon Salter to the portal and has a coach in Jamey Chadwell who also might be on his way out.
Prediction: Buffalo 38, Liberty 35
